Prediction of 1-year mortality in patients with acute coronary syndromes undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention: validation of the logistic clinical SYNTAX (Synergy Between Percutaneous Coronary Interventions With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery) score

OBJECTIVES This study sought to validate the Logistic Clinical SYNTAX (Synergy Between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery) score in patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes (ACS), in order to further legitimize its clinical application. BACKGROUND The Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score allows for an individualized prediction of 1-year mortality in patients undergoing contemporary percutaneous coronary intervention. It is composed of a "Core" Model (anatomical SYNTAX score, age, creatinine clearance, and left ventricular ejection fraction), and "Extended" Model (composed of an additional 6 clinical variables), and has previously been cross validated in 7 contemporary stent trials (>6,000 patients). METHODS One-year all-cause death was analyzed in 2,627 patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention from the ACUITY (Acute Catheterization and Urgent Intervention Triage Strategy) trial. Mortality predictions from the Core and Extended Models were studied with respect to discrimination, that is, separation of those with and without 1-year all-cause death (assessed by the concordance [C] statistic), and calibration, that is, agreement between observed and predicted outcomes (assessed with validation plots). Decision curve analyses, which weight the harms (false positives) against benefits (true positives) of using a risk score to make mortality predictions, were undertaken to assess clinical usefulness. RESULTS In the ACUITY trial, the median SYNTAX score was 9.0 (interquartile range 5.0 to 16.0); approximately 40% of patients had 3-vessel disease, 29% diabetes, and 85% underwent drug-eluting stent implantation. Validation plots confirmed agreement between observed and predicted mortality. The Core and Extended Models demonstrated substantial improvements in the discriminative ability for 1-year all-cause death compared with the anatomical SYNTAX score in isolation (C-statistics: SYNTAX score: 0.64, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.56 to 0.71; Core Model: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.66 to 0.79; Extended Model: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.70 to 0.83). Decision curve analyses confirmed the increasing ability to correctly identify patients who would die at 1 year with the Extended Model versus the Core Model versus the anatomical SYNTAX score, over a wide range of thresholds for mortality risk predictions. CONCLUSIONS Compared to the anatomical SYNTAX score alone, the Core and Extended Models of the Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score more accurately predicted individual 1-year mortality in patients presenting with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. These findings support the clinical application of the Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score.

Patientensicherheit in der Hausarztpraxis

Einleitung Aus der Schweizer Grundversorgung lagen bisher noch keine systematischen Daten zu kritischen Ereignissen und zum Sicherheitsklima vor. Aus diesem Grund wurde eine Befragung von Ärzten und Medizinischen Praxisassistentinnen (MPA) in Deutschschweizer Hausarztpraxen sowie ein Folgeprojekt spezifisch zur Telefon-Triage durchgeführt. Methoden Mit Hilfe eines standardisierten Fragebogens wurden Fachpersonen in Hausarztpraxen zu Sicherheitsrisiken und zum Sicherheitsklima in ihren Praxen befragt. Der Fragebogen enthielt neben Fragen zum Sicherheitsklima Beschreibungen von 23 kritischen Ereignissen in Hausarztpraxen, die bezüglich Häufigkeit des Auftretens in der Praxis in den vergangenen zwölf Monaten sowie der Schadensfolge beurteilt wurden, als das Ereignis zum letzten Mal in der Praxis aufgetreten ist. Zudem beantworteten Ärzte und MPA eine offene Frage, nach den für sie besonders relevanten Risiken für die Patientensicherheit in ihren Praxen. Im Folgeprojekt wurden Interviews und Gruppendiskussionen mit MPA und Ärzten geführt, um eine Prozessanalyse der Telefon-Triage durchzuführen und ein Hilfsmittel für Hausarztpraxen zur Stärkung einer sicheren Telefon-Triage zu entwickeln. Ergebnisse 630 Ärzte und MPA (50,2% Ärzte, 49,8% MPA) haben an der Studie teilgenommen. 30% der Ärzte und 17% der MPA gaben an, mindestens einen der untersuchten Ereignisse täglich oder wöchentlich in ihrer Praxis zu beobachten. Fehler bei der Dokumentation wurden am häufigsten beobachtet. Ereignisse, die sich aufgrund der Schadensfolge als besonders relevant erwiesen, waren Fehleinschätzungen bei Kontaktaufnahmen der Patienten mit der Praxis, Diagnosefehler, mangelnde Überwachung von Patienten nach therapeutischen Massnahmen und Fehler in Zusammenhang mit der Medikation. Die Medikation (28% der Nennungen), medizinische Verrichtungen in der Praxis (11%) und die Telefon-Triage (7%) wurden am häufigsten als die Risiken genannt, die die Studienteilnehmer in ihren Praxen gerne eliminieren würden. In Bezug auf das Sicherheitsklima erwiesen sich insbesondere Teamsitzungen und regelmässige Qualitätszirkel-Teilnahme als relevante Prädiktoren für die Dimension „Teambasierte Aktivitäten und Strategien zur Fehlerprävention“. Berufsgruppenunterschiede zwischen Ärzten und MPA konnten sowohl hinsichtlich der berichteten Sicherheitsrisiken, als auch beim Sicherheitsklima beobachtet werden. Fazit Die Ergebnisse der Studie legen die Telefon-Triage als bislang wenig beachteten jedoch sehr relevanten Sicherheitsbereich in der Grundversorgung dar. Um die Sicherheit der Telefon-Triage zu stärken, wurde ein Anschlussprojekt durchgeführt, aus dem heraus ein Leitfaden für Hausarztpraxen entwickelt wurde. Dieser Leitfaden soll Ärzte und MPA in einer gemeinsamen und kritischen Auseinandersetzung von Strukturen und Prozessen rund um die Telefon-Triage sowie der Entwicklung von Verbesserungsschritten unterstützen. Die systematisch beobachteten Berufsgruppenunterschiede sind ein wichtiger Hinweis dafür, dass das gesamte Praxisteam in die Analyse von Sicherheitsrisiken und die Entwicklung von Massnahmen einbezogen werden sollte. Nur so können Risiken umfassend erfasst und für alle Fachpersonen relevante und getragene Verbesserungen initiiert werden. Dieser Ansatz der Team-Involvierung bildet die Basis für den Praxisleitfaden zur Telefon-Triage.

[Sense and nonsense of toxicological analyses in the daily clinical routine]

Screening tests for drugs of abuse are regularly used in the clinical routine. These tests identify the targeted substances very differently if tests from different manufacturers are used and sometimes also react positive after the intake of drugs which are not intended to be detected. Therefore, implausible results have to be questioned. A test result can be falsely negative, if a patient has taken a compound which is not detected by the antibody used in the test system. Chromatographic confirmation and screening assays are more laborious to perform and more demanding for the interpretation and are therefore only offered by several specialized clinical laboratories. However, their specificity is excellent and many different compounds can be detected depending on the number of compounds which are part of the mass spectra library used. If the clinical evaluation results in the differential diagnosis of an acute intoxication, screening tests for drugs of abuse can help to identify a single compound or a group of substances. The clinical picture, however, can usually not been explained by a qualitative test result. In addition, there are no published data demonstrating that these tests meaningfully influence triage, treatment, diagnosis or further therapy of a poisoned patient. The quantitative determination of specific compounds in the blood allows for example an appraisal of the prognosis and helps to indicate a specific therapy after intake of acetaminophen or methanol. New designer drugs can not at all be detected by the classic screening tests for drugs of abuse. The have to be identified by chromatographic methods.

Diagnosis and therapy of acute hemorrhage in patients with pelvic fractures

Within the past 15 years, significant advances in the imaging of multiorgan and complex trauma primarily due to the improvement of cross-sectional imaging have resulted in the optimization of the expedient diagnosis and management of the polytrauma patient. At the forefront, multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) has become the cornerstone of modern emergency departments and trauma centers. In many institutions, MDCT is the de facto diagnostic tool upon trauma activation. In the setting of pelvic imaging, MDCT (with its high spatial resolution and sensitivity as well as short acquisition times) allows for rapid identification and assessment of pelvic hemorrhage leading to faster triage and definitive management. In trauma centers throughout the world, angiography and minimally invasive catheter-based embolization techniques performed by interventional radiologists have become the standard of care for patients with acute pelvic trauma and related multiorgan hemorrhage. In an interdisciplinary setting, embolization may be performed either alone or as an adjunct procedure with open or closed reduction and stabilization techniques. A team-based approach involving multiple disciplines (e.g., radiology, traumatology, orthopedic surgery, intensive care medicine) is crucial to monitor and treat the actively bleeding patient appropriately.

Added value of dual-energy computed tomography versus single-energy computed tomography in assessing ferromagnetic properties of ballistic projectiles: implications for magnetic resonance imaging of gunshot victims.

OBJECTIVE The objective of this study was to assess the discriminative power of dual-energy computed tomography (DECT) versus single-energy CT (SECT) to distinguish between ferromagnetic and non-ferromagnetic ballistic projectiles to improve safety regarding magnetic resonance (MR) imaging studies in patients with retained projectiles. MATERIALS AND METHODS Twenty-seven ballistic projectiles including 25 bullets (diameter, 3-15 mm) and 2 shotgun pellets (2 mm each) were examined in an anthropomorphic chest phantom using 128-section dual-source CT. Data acquisition was performed with tube voltages set at 80, 100, 120, and 140 kV(p). Two readers independently assessed CT numbers of the projectile's core on images reconstructed with an extended CT scale. Dual-energy indices (DEIs) were calculated from both 80-/140-kV(p) and 100-/140-kV(p) pairs; receiver operating characteristics curves were fitted to assess ferromagnetic properties by means of CT numbers and DEI. RESULTS Nine (33%) of the projectiles were ferromagnetic; 18 were nonferromagnetic (67%). Interreader and intrareader correlations of CT number measurements were excellent (intraclass correlation coefficients, >0.906; P<0.001). The DEI calculated from both 80/140 and 100/140 kV(p) were significantly (P<0.05) different between the ferromagnetic and non-ferromagnetic projectiles. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.75 and 0.8 for the tube voltage pairs of 80/140 and 100/140 kV(p) (P<0.05; 95% confidence interval, 0.57-0.94 and 0.62-0.97, respectively) to differentiate between the ferromagnetic and non-ferromagnetic ballistic projectiles; which increased to 0.83 and 0.85 when shotgun pellets were excluded from the analysis. The AUC for SECT was 0.69 and 0.73 (80 and 100 kV[p], respectively). CONCLUSIONS Measurements of DECT combined with an extended CT scale allow for the discrimination of projectiles with non-ferromagnetic from those with ferromagnetic properties in an anthropomorphic chest phantom with a higher AUC compared with SECT. This study indicates that DECT may have the potential to contribute to MR safety and allow for MR imaging of patients with retained projectiles. However, further studies are necessary before this concept may be used to triage clinical patients before MR.

Validation and reclassification of MGAP and GAP in hospital settings using data from the Trauma Audit and Research Network.

BACKGROUND Recently, two simple clinical scores were published to predict survival in trauma patients. Both scores may successfully guide major trauma triage, but neither has been independently validated in a hospital setting. METHODS This is a cohort study with 30-day mortality as the primary outcome to validate two new trauma scores-Mechanism, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), Age, and Pressure (MGAP) score and GCS, Age and Pressure (GAP) score-using data from the UK Trauma Audit and Research Network. First, an assessment of discrimination, using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and calibration, comparing mortality rates with those originally published, were performed. Second, we calculated sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and likelihood ratios for prognostic score performance. Third, we propose new cutoffs for the risk categories. RESULTS A total of 79,807 adult (≥16 years) major trauma patients (2000-2010) were included; 5,474 (6.9%) died. Mean (SD) age was 51.5 (22.4) years, median GCS score was 15 (interquartile range, 15-15), and median Injury Severity Score (ISS) was 9 (interquartile range, 9-16). More than 50% of the patients had a low-risk GAP or MGAP score (1% mortality). With regard to discrimination, areas under the ROC curve were 87.2% for GAP score (95% confidence interval, 86.7-87.7) and 86.8% for MGAP score (95% confidence interval, 86.2-87.3). With regard to calibration, 2,390 (3.3%), 1,900 (28.5%), and 1,184 (72.2%) patients died in the low, medium, and high GAP risk categories, respectively. In the low- and medium-risk groups, these were almost double the previously published rates. For MGAP, 1,861 (2.8%), 1,455 (15.2%), and 2,158 (58.6%) patients died in the low-, medium-, and high-risk categories, consonant with results originally published. Reclassifying score point cutoffs improved likelihood ratios, sensitivity and specificity, as well as areas under the ROC curve. CONCLUSION We found both scores to be valid triage tools to stratify emergency department patients, according to their risk of death. MGAP calibrated better, but GAP slightly improved discrimination. The newly proposed cutoffs better differentiate risk classification and may therefore facilitate hospital resource allocation. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE Prognostic study, level II.

An arranged marriage for precision medicine: hypoxia and genomic assays in localized prostate cancer radiotherapy

Prostate cancer (CaP) is the most commonly diagnosed malignancy in males in the Western world with one in six males diagnosed in their lifetime. Current clinical prognostication groupings use pathologic Gleason score, pre-treatment prostatic-specific antigen and Union for International Cancer Control-TNM staging to place patients with localized CaP into low-, intermediate- and high-risk categories. These categories represent an increasing risk of biochemical failure and CaP-specific mortality rates, they also reflect the need for increasing treatment intensity and justification for increased side effects. In this article, we point out that 30-50% of patients will still fail image-guided radiotherapy or surgery despite the judicious use of clinical risk categories owing to interpatient heterogeneity in treatment response. To improve treatment individualization, better predictors of prognosis and radiotherapy treatment response are needed to triage patients to bespoke and intensified CaP treatment protocols. These should include the use of pre-treatment genomic tests based on DNA or RNA indices and/or assays that reflect cancer metabolism, such as hypoxia assays, to define patient-specific CaP progression and aggression. More importantly, it is argued that these novel prognostic assays could be even more useful if combined together to drive forward precision cancer medicine for localized CaP.

First results from a Swiss level I trauma centre participating in the UK Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN): Prospective cohort study

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: Patient characteristics and risk factors for death of Swiss trauma patients in the Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN). METHODS: Descriptive analysis of trauma patients (≥16 years) admitted to a level I trauma centre in Switzerland (September 1, 2009 to August 31, 2010) and entered into TARN. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify predictors of 30-day mortality. RESULTS: Of 458 patients 71% were male. The median age was 50.5 years (inter-quartile range [IQR] 32.2-67.7), median Injury Severity Score (ISS) was 14 (IQR 9-20) and median Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) was 15 (IQR 14-15). The ISS was >15 for 47%, and 14% had an ISS >25. A total of 17 patients (3.7%) died within 30 days of trauma. All deaths were in patients with ISS >15. Most injuries were due to falls <2 m (35%) or road traffic accidents (29%). Injuries to the head (39%) were followed by injuries to the lower limbs (33%), spine (28%) and chest (27%). The time of admission peaked between 12:00 and 22:00, with a second peak between 00:00 and 02:00. A total of 64% of patients were admitted directly to our trauma centre. The median time to CT was 30 min (IQR 18-54 min). Using multivariable regression analysis, the predictors of mortality were older age, higher ISS and lower GCS. CONCLUSIONS: Characteristics of Swiss trauma patients derived from TARN were described for the first time, providing a detailed overview of the institutional trauma population. Based on these results, patient management and hospital resources (e.g. triage of patients, time to CT, staffing during night shifts) could be evaluated as a further step.

Screening for complex healing processes and psychological intervention in injured individuals

Introduction Injured individuals face a high risk for the development of psychological symptoms such as depression or anxiety, which influences early return to work after an accident. So far, it is unclear to which extent early psychological interventions can improve the ability to return to work. Purpose of the study The aim of the study was to investigate whether an improvement of the treatment-triage (by the screening questionnaire work and health [FAB]) influences early return to work and well being in injured individuals. Methods The study sample consists of injured individuals with different mental health-related or work-related disabilities after an accident. Participants are included eight weeks after an accident. Participants are randomly assigned to the intervention or to the control group. The intervention is an individualized psychotherapy consisting of cognitive-behavioral therapy and work related topics in an individual setting. Well being and work related actors are assessed at baseline and after six months. Results The recruitment is still ongoing. The preliminary results of this randomized controlled study will be presented at the conference. Conclusion An individualized psychotherapy might have the potential to improve the rehabilitation process in injured individuals and improve the ability to return to work.

Psychological intervention in injured individuals

Aim: Injured individuals face a high risk for the development of psychological symptoms such as depression or anxiety, which influences early return to work after an accident. So far, it is unclear to which extent early psychological interventions can improve the ability to return to work. The aim of the study was to investigate whether an improvement of the treatment‐triage influences early return to work and well being in injured individuals. Method: The study sample consists of injured individuals with different mental health-related or work-related disabilities after an accident. Participants are included eight weeks after an accident. Participants are randomly assigned to the intervention or to the control group. The intervention is an individualized psychotherapy consisting of cognitive‐behavioral therapy and work related topics in an individual setting. Wellbeing and work related factors are assessed at baseline and after six months. Result: The recruitment is still ongoing. The preliminary results of this randomized controlled study will be presented at the conference. Discussion: An individualized psychotherapy might have the potential to improve the rehabilitation process in injured individuals and improve the ability to return to work.

Psychological distress in medical seeking ED care for somatic reasons: results of a systematic review

Objectives: The aim of this systematic literature review is to investigate (A) currently used instruments for assessing psychological distress, (B) the prevalence of psychological distress in medical emergency department (ED) patients with acute somatic conditions and (C) empirical evidence on how predictors are associated with psychological distress. Methods: We conducted an electronic literature search using three databases to identify studies that used validated instruments for detection of psychological distress in adult patients presented to the ED with somatic (non-psychiatric) complaints. From a total of 1688 potential articles, 18 studies were selected for in-depth review. Results: A total of 13 instruments have been applied for assessment of distress including screening questionnaires and briefly structured clinical interviews. Using these instruments, the prevalence of psychological distress detected in medical ED patients was between 4% and 47%. Psychological distress in general and particularly depression and anxiety have been found to be associated with demographic factors (eg, female gender, middle age) and illness-related variables (eg, urgency of triage category). Some studies reported that coexisting psychological distress of medical patients identified in the ED was associated with physical and psychological health status after ED discharge. Importantly, during routine clinical care, only few patients with psychological distress were diagnosed by their treating physicians. Conclusions: There is strong evidence that psychological distress is an important and prevalent cofactor in medically ill patients presenting to the ED with harmful associations with (subjective) health outcomes. To prove causality, future research should investigate whether screening and lowering psychological distress with specific interventions would result in better patient outcomes.

Trends and characteristics of attendance at the emergency department of a Swiss university hospital: 2002-2012.

BACKGROUND The numbers of people attending emergency departments (EDs) at hospitals are increasing. We aimed to analyse trends in ED attendance at a Swiss university hospital between 2002 and 2012, focussing on age-related differences and hospital admission criteria. METHODS We used hospital administrative data for all patients aged ≥16 years who attended the ED (n=298,306) at this university hospital between 1 January 2002, and 31 December 2012. We descriptively analysed the numbers of ED visits according to the admission year and stratified by age (≥65 vs <65 years). RESULTS People attending the ED were on average 46.6 years old (standard deviation 20 years, maximum range 16‒99 years). The annual number of ED attendances grew by n=6,639 (27.6%) from 24,080 in 2002 to 30,719 in 2012. In the subgroup of patients aged ≥65 the relative increase was 42.3%, which is significantly higher (Pearson's χ2=350.046, df=10; p=0.000) than the relative increase of 23.4% among patients<65 years. The subgroup of patients≥65 years attended the ED more often because of diseases (n=56,307; 85%) than accidents (n=9,844; 14.9%). This subgroup (patients≥65 years) was also more often admitted to hospital (Pearson's χ2=23,377.190; df=1; p=0.000) than patients<65 years. CONCLUSIONS ED attendance of patients≥65 years increased in absolute and relative terms. The study findings suggest that staff of this ED may want to assess the needs of patients≥65 years and, if necessary, adjust the services (e.g., adapted triage scales, adapted geriatric screenings, and adapted hospital admission criteria).

Biomarker-guided personalised emergency medicine for all - hope for another hype?

Polymorbid patients, diverse diagnostic and therapeutic options, more complex hospital structures, financial incentives, benchmarking, as well as perceptional and societal changes put pressure on medical doctors, specifically if medical errors surface. This is particularly true for the emergency department setting, where patients face delayed or erroneous initial diagnostic or therapeutic measures and costly hospital stays due to sub-optimal triage. A "biomarker" is any laboratory tool with the potential better to detect and characterise diseases, to simplify complex clinical algorithms and to improve clinical problem solving in routine care. They must be embedded in clinical algorithms to complement and not replace basic medical skills. Unselected ordering of laboratory tests and shortcomings in test performance and interpretation contribute to diagnostic errors. Test results may be ambiguous with false positive or false negative results and generate unnecessary harm and costs. Laboratory tests should only be ordered, if results have clinical consequences. In studies, we must move beyond the observational reporting and meta-analysing of diagnostic accuracies for biomarkers. Instead, specific cut-off ranges should be proposed and intervention studies conducted to prove outcome relevant impacts on patient care. The focus of this review is to exemplify the appropriate use of selected laboratory tests in the emergency setting for which randomised-controlled intervention studies have proven clinical benefit. Herein, we focus on initial patient triage and allocation of treatment opportunities in patients with cardiorespiratory diseases in the emergency department. The following five biomarkers will be discussed: proadrenomedullin for prognostic triage assessment and site-of-care decisions, cardiac troponin for acute myocardial infarction, natriuretic peptides for acute heart failure, D-dimers for venous thromboembolism, C-reactive protein as a marker of inflammation, and procalcitonin for antibiotic stewardship in infections of the respiratory tract and sepsis. For these markers we provide an overview on physiopathology, historical evolution of evidence, strengths and limitations for a rational implementation into clinical algorithms. We critically discuss results from key intervention trials that led to their use in clinical routine and potential future indications. The rational for the use of all these biomarkers, first, tackle diagnostic ambiguity and consecutive defensive medicine, second, delayed and sub-optimal therapeutic decisions, and third, prognostic uncertainty with misguided triage and site-of-care decisions all contributing to the waste of our limited health care resources. A multifaceted approach for a more targeted management of medical patients from emergency admission to discharge including biomarkers, will translate into better resource use, shorter length of hospital stay, reduced overall costs, improved patients satisfaction and outcomes in terms of mortality and re-hospitalisation. Hopefully, the concepts outlined in this review will help the reader to improve their diagnostic skills and become more parsimonious laboratory test requesters.

Incremental Value of the CRUSADE, ACUITY, and HAS-BLED Risk Scores for the Prediction of Hemorrhagic Events After Coronary Stent Implantation in Patients Undergoing Long or Short Duration of Dual Antiplatelet Therapy

BACKGROUND Multiple scores have been proposed to stratify bleeding risk, but their value to guide dual antiplatelet therapy duration has never been appraised. We compared the performance of the CRUSADE (Can Rapid Risk Stratification of Unstable Angina Patients Suppress Adverse Outcomes With Early Implementation of the ACC/AHA Guidelines), ACUITY (Acute Catheterization and Urgent Intervention Triage Strategy), and HAS-BLED (Hypertension, Abnormal Renal/Liver Function, Stroke, Bleeding History or Predisposition, Labile INR, Elderly, Drugs/Alcohol Concomitantly) scores in 1946 patients recruited in the Prolonging Dual Antiplatelet Treatment After Grading Stent-Induced Intimal Hyperplasia Study (PRODIGY) and assessed hemorrhagic and ischemic events in the 24- and 6-month dual antiplatelet therapy groups. METHODS AND RESULTS Bleeding score performance was assessed with a Cox regression model and C statistics. Discriminative and reclassification power was assessed with net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement. The C statistic was similar between the CRUSADE score (area under the curve 0.71) and ACUITY (area under the curve 0.68), and higher than HAS-BLED (area under the curve 0.63). CRUSADE, but not ACUITY, improved reclassification (net reclassification index 0.39, P=0.005) and discrimination (integrated discrimination improvement index 0.0083, P=0.021) of major bleeding compared with HAS-BLED. Major bleeding and transfusions were higher in the 24- versus 6-month dual antiplatelet therapy groups in patients with a CRUSADE score >40 (hazard ratio for bleeding 2.69, P=0.035; hazard ratio for transfusions 4.65, P=0.009) but not in those with CRUSADE score ≤40 (hazard ratio for bleeding 1.50, P=0.25; hazard ratio for transfusions 1.37, P=0.44), with positive interaction (Pint=0.05 and Pint=0.01, respectively). The number of patients with high CRUSADE scores needed to treat for harm for major bleeding and transfusion were 17 and 15, respectively, with 24-month rather than 6-month dual antiplatelet therapy; corresponding figures in the overall population were 67 and 71, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Our analysis suggests that the CRUSADE score predicts major bleeding similarly to ACUITY and better than HAS BLED in an all-comer population with percutaneous coronary intervention and potentially identifies patients at higher risk of hemorrhagic complications when treated with a long-term dual antiplatelet therapy regimen. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION URL: http://clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00611286.

Clinical prediction of large vessel occlusion in anterior circulation stroke: mission impossible?

Simple clinical scores to predict large vessel occlusion (LVO) in acute ischemic stroke would be helpful to triage patients in the prehospital phase. We assessed the ability of various combinations of National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) subitems and published stroke scales (i.e., RACE scale, 3I-SS, sNIHSS-8, sNIHSS-5, sNIHSS-1, mNIHSS, a-NIHSS items profiles A-E, CPSS1, CPSS2, and CPSSS) to predict LVO on CT or MR arteriography in 1085 consecutive patients (39.4 % women, mean age 67.7 years) with anterior circulation strokes within 6 h of symptom onset. 657 patients (61 %) had an occlusion of the internal carotid artery or the M1/M2 segment of the middle cerebral artery. Best cut-off value of the total NIHSS score to predict LVO was 7 (PPV 84.2 %, sensitivity 81.0 %, specificity 76.6 %, NPV 72.4 %, ACC 79.3 %). Receiver operating characteristic curves of various combinations of NIHSS subitems and published scores were equally or less predictive to show LVO than the total NIHSS score. At intersection of sensitivity and specificity curves in all scores, at least 1/5 of patients with LVO were missed. Best odds ratios for LVO among NIHSS subitems were best gaze (9.6, 95 %-CI 6.765-13.632), visual fields (7.0, 95 %-CI 3.981-12.370), motor arms (7.6, 95 %-CI 5.589-10.204), and aphasia/neglect (7.1, 95 %-CI 5.352-9.492). There is a significant correlation between clinical scores based on the NIHSS score and LVO on arteriography. However, if clinically relevant thresholds are applied to the scores, a sizable number of LVOs are missed. Therefore, clinical scores cannot replace vessel imaging.