Effects of an aging vascular model on healthy and diseased hearts

The vitamin D(3) and nicotine (VDN) model is a model of isolated systolic hypertension (ISH) due to arterial calcification raising arterial stiffness and vascular impedance similar to an aged and stiffened arterial tree. We therefore analyzed the impact of this aging model on normal and diseased hearts with myocardial infarction (MI). Wistar rats were treated with VDN (n = 9), subjected to MI by coronary ligation (n = 10), or subjected to a combination of both MI and VDN treatment (VDN/MI, n = 14). A sham-treated group served as control (Ctrl, n = 10). Transthoracic echocardiography was performed every 2 wk, whereas invasive indexes were obtained at week 8 before death. Calcium, collagen, and protein contents were measured in the heart and the aorta. Systolic blood pressure, pulse pressure, thoracic aortic calcium, and end-systolic elastance as an index of myocardial contractility were highest in the aging model group compared with MI and Ctrl groups (P(VDN) < 0.05, 2-way ANOVA). Left ventricular wall stress and brain natriuretic peptide (P(VDNxMI) = not significant) were highest, while ejection fraction, stroke volume, and cardiac output were lowest in the combined group versus all other groups (P(VDNxMI) < 0.05). The combination of ISH due to this aging model and MI demonstrates significant alterations in cardiac function. This model mimics several clinical phenomena of cardiovascular aging and may thus serve to further study novel therapies.

Forcing of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics during the Dalton Minimum

The response of atmospheric chemistry and dynamics to volcanic eruptions and to a decrease in solar activity during the Dalton Minimum is investigated with the fully coupled atmosphere–ocean chemistry general circulation model SOCOL-MPIOM (modeling tools for studies of SOlar Climate Ozone Links-Max Planck Institute Ocean Model) covering the time period 1780 to 1840 AD. We carried out several sensitivity ensemble experiments to separate the effects of (i) reduced solar ultra-violet (UV) irradiance, (ii) reduced solar visible and near infrared irradiance, (iii) enhanced galactic cosmic ray intensity as well as less intensive solar energetic proton events and auroral electron precipitation, and (iv) volcanic aerosols. The introduced changes of UV irradiance and volcanic aerosols significantly influence stratospheric dynamics in the early 19th century, whereas changes in the visible part of the spectrum and energetic particles have smaller effects. A reduction of UV irradiance by 15%, which represents the presently discussed highest estimate of UV irradiance change caused by solar activity changes, causes global ozone decrease below the stratopause reaching as much as 8% in the midlatitudes at 5 hPa and a significant stratospheric cooling of up to 2 °C in the mid-stratosphere and to 6 °C in the lower mesosphere. Changes in energetic particle precipitation lead only to minor changes in the yearly averaged temperature fields in the stratosphere. Volcanic aerosols heat the tropical lower stratosphere, allowing more water vapour to enter the tropical stratosphere, which, via HOx reactions, decreases upper stratospheric and mesospheric ozone by roughly 4%. Conversely, heterogeneous chemistry on aerosols reduces stratospheric NOx, leading to a 12% ozone increase in the tropics, whereas a decrease in ozone of up to 5% is found over Antarctica in boreal winter. The linear superposition of the different contributions is not equivalent to the response obtained in a simulation when all forcing factors are applied during the Dalton Minimum (DM) – this effect is especially well visible for NOx/NOy. Thus, this study also shows the non-linear behaviour of the coupled chemistry-climate system. Finally, we conclude that especially UV and volcanic eruptions dominate the changes in the ozone, temperature and dynamics while the NOx field is dominated by the energetic particle precipitation. Visible radiation changes have only very minor effects on both stratospheric dynamics and chemistry.

Multichannel EEG fields during and without visual input: frequency domain model source locations and dimensional complexities

27-Channel EEG potential map series were recorded from 12 normals with closed and open eyes. Intracerebral dipole model source locations in the frequency domain were computed. Eye opening (visual input) caused centralization (convergence and elevation) of the source locations of the seven frequency bands, indicative of generalized activity; especially, there was clear anteriorization of α-2 (10.5–12 Hz) and β-2 (18.5–21 Hz) sources (α-2 also to the left). Complexity of the map series' trajectories in state space (assessed by Global Dimensional Complexity and Global OMEGA Complexity) increased significantly with eye opening, indicative of more independent, parallel, active processes. Contrary to PET and fMRI, these results suggest that brain activity is more distributed and independent during visual input than after eye closing (when it is more localized and more posterior).

A Process Model of Complementarity and Substitution of Contractual and Relational Governance in IS Outsourcing

This paper develops a process model of how and why complementarity and substitution form over time between contractual and relational governance in the context of information systems outsourcing. Our analysis identifies four distinct process patterns that explain this formation as the outcome of interaction processes between key elements of both contractual and relational governance. These patterns unveil the dynamic nature of complementarity and substitution. In particular, we show that the relationship between contractual and relational governance oscillates between complementarity and substitution. Those oscillations are triggered mainly by three types of contextual events (goal fuzziness, goal conflict, and goal misalignment). Surprisingly, substitution of informal control did not occur as an immediate reaction to external events but emerged as a consequence of preceding complementarity. Thus, our study challenges the prevailing view of an either/or dichotomy of complementarity and substitution by showing that they are causally connected over time.

Contrasting interannual and multidecadal NAO variability

Decadal and longer timescale variability in the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has considerable impact on regional climate, yet it remains unclear what fraction of this variability is potentially predictable. This study takes a new approach to this question by demonstrating clear physical differences between NAO variability on interannual-decadal (<30 year) and multidecadal (>30 year) timescales. It is shown that on the shorter timescale the NAO is dominated by variations in the latitude of the North Atlantic jet and storm track, whereas on the longer timescale it represents changes in their strength instead. NAO variability on the two timescales is associated with different dynamical behaviour in terms of eddy-mean flow interaction, Rossby wave breaking and blocking. The two timescales also exhibit different regional impacts on temperature and precipitation and different relationships to sea surface temperatures. These results are derived from linear regression analysis of the Twentieth Century and NCEP-NCAR reanalyses and of a high-resolution HiGEM General Circulation Model control simulation, with additional analysis of a long sea level pressure reconstruction. Evidence is presented for an influence of the ocean circulation on the longer timescale variability of the NAO, which is particularly clear in the model data. As well as providing new evidence of potential predictability, these findings are shown to have implications for the reconstruction and interpretation of long climate records.

Reliable prediction of clinical outcome in patients with chronic HCV infection and compensated advanced hepatic fibrosis: a validated model using objective and readily available clinical parameters.

OBJECTIVE Reliable tools to predict long-term outcome among patients with well compensated advanced liver disease due to chronic HCV infection are lacking. DESIGN Risk scores for mortality and for cirrhosis-related complications were constructed with Cox regression analysis in a derivation cohort and evaluated in a validation cohort, both including patients with chronic HCV infection and advanced fibrosis. RESULTS In the derivation cohort, 100/405 patients died during a median 8.1 (IQR 5.7-11.1) years of follow-up. Multivariate Cox analyses showed age (HR=1.06, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.09, p<0.001), male sex (HR=1.91, 95% CI 1.10 to 3.29, p=0.021), platelet count (HR=0.91, 95% CI 0.87 to 0.95, p<0.001) and log10 aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ratio (HR=1.30, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.51, p=0.001) were independently associated with mortality (C statistic=0.78, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.83). In the validation cohort, 58/296 patients with cirrhosis died during a median of 6.6 (IQR 4.4-9.0) years. Among patients with estimated 5-year mortality risks <5%, 5-10% and >10%, the observed 5-year mortality rates in the derivation cohort and validation cohort were 0.9% (95% CI 0.0 to 2.7) and 2.6% (95% CI 0.0 to 6.1), 8.1% (95% CI 1.8 to 14.4) and 8.0% (95% CI 1.3 to 14.7), 21.8% (95% CI 13.2 to 30.4) and 20.9% (95% CI 13.6 to 28.1), respectively (C statistic in validation cohort = 0.76, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.83). The risk score for cirrhosis-related complications also incorporated HCV genotype (C statistic = 0.80, 95% CI 0.76 to 0.83 in the derivation cohort; and 0.74, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.79 in the validation cohort). CONCLUSIONS Prognosis of patients with chronic HCV infection and compensated advanced liver disease can be accurately assessed with risk scores including readily available objective clinical parameters.

On the seasonal variations of salinity of the tropical Atlantic mixed layer

The physical processes controlling the mixed layer salinity (MLS) seasonal budget in the tropical Atlantic Ocean are investigated using a regional configuration of an ocean general circulation model. The analysis reveals that the MLS cycle is generally weak in comparison of individual physical processes entering in the budget because of strong compensation. In evaporative regions, around the surface salinity maxima, the ocean acts to freshen the mixed layer against the action of evaporation. Poleward of the southern SSS maxima, the freshening is ensured by geostrophic advection, the vertical salinity diffusion and, during winter, a dominant contribution of the convective entrainment. On the equatorward flanks of the SSS maxima, Ekman transport mainly contributes to supply freshwater from ITCZ regions while vertical salinity diffusion adds on the effect of evaporation. All these terms are phase locked through the effect of the wind. Under the seasonal march of the ITCZ and in coastal areas affected by river (7°S:15°N), the upper ocean freshening by precipitations and/or runoff is attenuated by vertical salinity diffusion. In the eastern equatorial regions, seasonal cycle of wind forced surface currents advect freshwaters, which are mixed with subsurface saline water because of the strong vertical turbulent diffusion. In all these regions, the vertical diffusion presents an important contribution to the MLS budget by providing, in general, an upwelling flux of salinity. It is generally due to vertical salinity gradient and mixing due to winds. Furthermore, in the equator where the vertical shear, associated to surface horizontal currents, is developed, the diffusion depends also on the sheared flow stability.

Modeling postglacial vegetation dynamics of temperate forests on the Olympic Peninsula (WA, USA) with special regard to snowpack

Past and future forest composition and distribution in temperate mountain ranges is strongly influenced by temperature and snowpack. We used LANDCLIM, a spatially explicit, dynamic vegetation model, to simulate forest dynamics for the last 16,000 years and compared the simulation results to pollen and macrofossil records at five sites on the Olympic Peninsula (Washington, USA). To address the hydrological effects of climate-driven variations in snowpack on simulated forest dynamics, we added a simple snow accumulation-and-melt module to the vegetation model and compared simulations with and without the module. LANDCLIM produced realistic present-day species composition with respect to elevation and precipitation gradients. Over the last 16,000 years, simulations driven by transient climate data from an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) and by a chironomid-based temperature reconstruction captured Late-glacial to Late Holocene transitions in forest communities. Overall, the reconstruction-driven vegetation simulations matched observed vegetation changes better than the AOGCM-driven simulations. This study also indicates that forest composition is very sensitive to snowpack-mediated changes in soil moisture. Simulations without the snow module showed a strong effect of snowpack on key bioclimatic variables and species composition at higher elevations. A projected upward shift of the snow line and a decrease in snowpack might lead to drastic changes in mountain forests composition and even a shift to dry meadows due to insufficient moisture availability in shallow alpine soils.

Stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: A model intercomparison.

The evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in 30 models of varying complexity is examined under four distinct Representative Concentration Pathways. The models include 25 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) or Earth System Models (ESMs) that submitted simulations in support of the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and 5 Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs). While none of the models incorporated the additional effects of ice sheet melting, they all projected very similar behaviour during the 21st century. Over this period the strength of MOC reduced by a best estimate of 22% (18%–25%; 5%–95% confidence limits) for RCP2.6, 26% (23%–30%) for RCP4.5, 29% (23%–35%) for RCP6.0 and 40% (36%–44%) for RCP8.5. Two of the models eventually realized a slow shutdown of the MOC under RCP8.5, although no model exhibited an abrupt change of the MOC. Through analysis of the freshwater flux across 30°–32°S into the Atlantic, it was found that 40% of the CMIP5 models were in a bistable regime of the MOC for the duration of their RCP integrations. The results support previous assessments that it is very unlikely that the MOC will undergo an abrupt change to an off state as a consequence of global warming.