27 resultados para equilibrium asset pricing models with latent variables
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Results from the Zurich study have shown lasting associations between sport practice and mental health. The effects are pronounced in people with pre-exising mental health problems. This analysis aims to replicate these results with the large Swiss Household Panel data set and to provide more differentiated results. The analysis covered the interviews 1999-2003 and included 3891 stayers, i.e., participants who were interviewed in all years. The outcome variables are depression / blues / anxiety, weakness / weariness, sleeping problems, energy / optimism. Confounding variables include sex, age, education level, citizenship. The analyses were carried out with mixed models (depression, optimism) and GEE models (weakness, sleep). About 60% of the SHP participants practise weekly or daily an individual or a team sport. A similar proportion enjoys a frequent physical activity (for half an hour minimum) which makes oneself slightly breathless. There are slight age-specific differences but also noteworthy regional differences. Practice of sport is clearly interrelated with self-reported depressive symptoms, optimism and weakness. This applies even though some relevant confounders – sex, educational level and citizenship – were introduced into the model. However, no relevant interaction effects with time could be shown. Moreover, direct interrelations commonly led to better fits than models with lagged variables, thus indicating that delayed effects of sport practice on the self-reported psychological complaints are less important. Model variants resulted for specific subgroups, for example, participants with a high vs. low initial activity level. Lack of sport practice is an interesting marker for serious psychological symptoms and mental disorders. The background of this association may differ in different subgroups, and should stimulate further investigations in this area.
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OBJECTIVES:: Metacarpal juxta-articular bone is altered in Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA). However, a detailed analysis of disease related geometrical adaptations of the metacarpal shaft is missing. The aim of the present study was to assess the role of RA disease, forearm muscle cross-sectional area (CSA), age and sex on bone geometry at the metacarpal shaft. METHODS:: In 64 RA patients and 128 control subjects geometric properties of the third metacarpal bone mid-shaft and forearm muscle CSA were measured by peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT). Linear models were performed for cortical CSA, total bone CSA, polar stress-strain Index (polar SSI, a surrogate for bone's resistance to bending and torsion), cortical thickness and Metacarpal Index (MI=cortical CSA/total CSA) with explanatory variables muscle CSA, age, RA status and sex. RESULTS:: Forearm muscle CSA was associated with cortical and total metacarpal CSA, and polar SSI. RA group status was associated with all bone parameters except cortical CSA. There was a significant interaction between RA status and age, indicating that the RA group had a greater age-related decrease in cortical CSA, cortical thickness and MI. CONCLUSIONS:: Bone geometry of the metacarpal shaft is altered in RA patients compared to healthy controls. While bone mass of the metacarpal shaft is adapted to forearm muscle mass, cortical thickness and MI are reduced but outer bone shaft circumference and polar SSI increased in RA patients. These adaptations correspond to an enhanced aging pattern in RA patients.
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Background Interferon-gamma release assays (IGRA) are more specific than the tuberculin skin test (TST) for the diagnosis of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection. Data on sensitivity are controversial in HIV infection. Methods IGRA (T-SPOT.TB) was performed using lymphocytes stored within 6 months before culture-confirmed tuberculosis was diagnosed in HIV-infected individuals in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. Results 64 individuals (69% males, 45% of non-white ethnicity, median age 35 years (interquartile range [IQR] 31-42), 28% with prior AIDS) were analysed. Median CD4 cell count was 223 cells/μl (IQR 103-339), HIV-RNA was 4.7 log10 copies/mL (IQR 4.3-5.2). T-SPOT.TB resulted positive in 25 patients (39%), negative in 18 (28%) and indeterminate in 21 (33%), corresponding to a sensitivity of 39% (95% CI 27-51%) if all test results were considered, and 58% (95% CI 43-74%) if indeterminate results were excluded. Sensitivity of IGRA was independent of CD4 cell count (p = 0.698). Among 44 individuals with available TST, 22 (50%) had a positive TST. Agreement between TST and IGRA was 57% (kappa = 0.14, p = 0.177), and in 34% (10/29) both tests were positive. Combining TST and IGRA (at least one test positive) resulted in an improved sensitivity of 67% (95% CI 52-81%). In multivariate analysis, older age was associated with negative results of TST and T-SPOT.TB (OR 3.07, 95% CI 1,22-7.74, p = 0.017, per 10 years older). Conclusions T-SPOT.TB and TST have similar sensitivity to detect latent TB in HIV-infected individuals. Combining TST and IGRA may help clinicians to better select HIV-infected individuals with latent tuberculosis who qualify for preventive treatment.
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Vascular surgical training currently has to cope with various challenges, including restrictions on work hours, significant reduction of open surgical training cases in many countries, an increasing diversity of open and endovascular procedures, and distinct expectations by trainees. Even more important, patients and the public no longer accept a "learning by doing" training philosophy that leaves the learning curve on the patient's side. The Vascular International (VI) Foundation and School aims to overcome these obstacles by training conventional vascular and endovascular techniques before they are applied on patients. To achieve largely realistic training conditions, lifelike pulsatile models with exchangeable synthetic arterial inlays were created to practice carotid endarterectomy and patch plasty, open abdominal aortic aneurysm surgery, and peripheral bypass surgery, as well as for endovascular procedures, including endovascular aneurysm repair, thoracic endovascular aortic repair, peripheral balloon dilatation, and stenting. All models are equipped with a small pressure pump inside to create pulsatile flow conditions with variable peak pressures of ~90 mm Hg. The VI course schedule consists of a series of 2-hour modules teaching different open or endovascular procedures step-by-step in a standardized fashion. Trainees practice in pairs with continuous supervision and intensive advice provided by highly experienced vascular surgical trainers (trainer-to-trainee ratio is 1:4). Several evaluations of these courses show that tutor-assisted training on lifelike models in an educational-centered and motivated environment is associated with a significant increase of general and specific vascular surgical technical competence within a short period of time. Future studies should evaluate whether these benefits positively influence the future learning curve of vascular surgical trainees and clarify to what extent sophisticated models are useful to assess the level of technical skills of vascular surgical residents at national or international board examinations. This article gives an overview of our experiences of >20 years of practical training of beginners and advanced vascular surgeons using lifelike pulsatile vascular surgical training models.
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BACKGROUND: The outcome of Kaposi sarcoma varies. While many patients do well on highly active antiretroviral therapy, others have progressive disease and need chemotherapy. In order to predict which patients are at risk of unfavorable evolution, we established a prognostic score. METHOD: The survival analysis (Kaplan-Meier method; Cox proportional hazards models) of 144 patients with Kaposi sarcoma prospectively included in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, from January 1996 to December 2004, was conducted. OUTCOME ANALYZED: use of chemotherapy or death. VARIABLES ANALYZED: demographics, tumor staging [T0 or T1 (16)], CD4 cell counts and HIV-1 RNA concentration, human herpesvirus 8 (HHV8) DNA in plasma and serological titers to latent and lytic antigens. RESULTS: Of 144 patients, 54 needed chemotherapy or died. In the univariate analysis, tumor stage T1, CD4 cell count below 200 cells/microl, positive HHV8 DNA and absence of antibodies against the HHV8 lytic antigen at the time of diagnosis were significantly associated with a bad outcome.Using multivariate analysis, the following variables were associated with an increased risk of unfavorable outcome: T1 [hazard ratio (HR) 5.22; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.97-9.18], CD4 cell count below 200 cells/microl (HR 2.33; 95% CI 1.22-4.45) and positive HHV8 DNA (HR 2.14; 95% CI 1.79-2.85).We created a score with these variables ranging from 0 to 4: T1 stage counted for two points, CD4 cell count below 200 cells/microl for one point, and positive HHV8 viral load for one point. Each point increase was associated with a HR of 2.26 (95% CI 1.79-2.85). CONCLUSION: In the multivariate analysis, staging (T1), CD4 cell count (<200 cells/microl), positive HHV8 DNA in plasma, at the time of diagnosis, predict evolution towards death or the need of chemotherapy.
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Summary Changes of the bone formation marker PINP correlated positively with improvements in vertebral strength in men with glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis (GIO) who received 18-month treatment with teriparatide, but not with risedronate. These results support the use of PINP as a surrogate marker of bone strength in GIO patients treated with teriparatide. Introduction To investigate the correlations between biochemical markers of bone turnover and vertebral strength estimated by finite element analysis (FEA) in men with GIO. Methods A total of 92 men with GIO were included in an 18-month, randomized, open-label trial of teriparatide (20 μg/day, n = 45) and risedronate (35 mg/week, n = 47). High-resolution quantitative computed tomography images of the 12th thoracic vertebra obtained at baseline, 6 and 18 months were converted into digital nonlinear FE models and subjected to anterior bending, axial compression and torsion. Stiffness and strength were computed for each model and loading mode. Serum biochemical markers of bone formation (amino-terminal-propeptide of type I collagen [PINP]) and bone resorption (type I collagen cross-linked C-telopeptide degradation fragments [CTx]) were measured at baseline, 3 months, 6 months and 18 months. A mixed-model of repeated measures analysed changes from baseline and between-group differences. Spearman correlations assessed the relationship between changes from baseline of bone markers with FEA variables. Results PINP and CTx levels increased in the teriparatide group and decreased in the risedronate group. FEA-derived parameters increased in both groups, but were significantly higher at 18 months in the teriparatide group. Significant positive correlations were found between changes from baseline of PINP at 3, 6 and 18 months with changes in FE strength in the teriparatide-treated group, but not in the risedronate group. Conclusions Positive correlations between changes in a biochemical marker of bone formation and improvement of biomechanical properties support the use of PINP as a surrogate marker of bone strength in teriparatide-treated GIO patients.
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OBJECTIVE: To examine predictors of stroke recurrence in patients with a high vs a low likelihood of having an incidental patent foramen ovale (PFO) as defined by the Risk of Paradoxical Embolism (RoPE) score.METHODS: Patients in the RoPE database with cryptogenic stroke (CS) and PFO were classified as having a probable PFO-related stroke (RoPE score of >6, n = 647) and others (RoPE score of =6 points, n = 677). We tested 15 clinical, 5 radiologic, and 3 echocardiographic variables for associations with stroke recurrence using Cox survival models with component database as a stratification factor. An interaction with RoPE score was checked for the variables that were significant.RESULTS: Follow-up was available for 92%, 79%, and 57% at 1, 2, and 3 years. Overall, a higher recurrence risk was associated with an index TIA. For all other predictors, effects were significantly different in the 2 RoPE score categories. For the low RoPE score group, but not the high RoPE score group, older age and antiplatelet (vs warfarin) treatment predicted recurrence. Conversely, echocardiographic features (septal hypermobility and a small shunt) and a prior (clinical) stroke/TIA were significant predictors in the high but not low RoPE score group.CONCLUSION: Predictors of recurrence differ when PFO relatedness is classified by the RoPE score, suggesting that patients with CS and PFO form a heterogeneous group with different stroke mechanisms. Echocardiographic features were only associated with recurrence in the high RoPE score group.
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A search for supersymmetric particles in final states with zero, one, and two leptons, with and without jets identified as originating from b-quarks, in 4.7 fb(-1) of root s = 7 TeV pp collisions produced by the Large Hadron Collider and recorded by the ATLAS detector is presented. The search uses a set of variables carrying information on the event kinematics transverse and parallel to the beam line that are sensitive to several topologies expected in supersymmetry. Mutually exclusive final states are defined, allowing a combination of all channels to increase the search sensitivity. No deviation from the Standard Model expectation is observed. Upper limits at 95 % confidence level on visible cross-sections for the production of new particles are extracted. Results are interpreted in the context of the constrained minimal supersymmetric extension to the Standard Model and in supersymmetry-inspired models with diverse, high-multiplicity final states.
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Numerous studies reported a strong link between working memory capacity (WMC) and fluid intelligence (Gf), although views differ in respect to how close these two constructs are related to each other. In the present study, we used a WMC task with five levels of task demands to assess the relationship between WMC and Gf by means of a new methodological approach referred to as fixed-links modeling. Fixed-links models belong to the family of confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and are of particular interest for experimental, repeated-measures designs. With this technique, processes systematically varying across task conditions can be disentangled from processes unaffected by the experimental manipulation. Proceeding from the assumption that experimental manipulation in a WMC task leads to increasing demands on WMC, the processes systematically varying across task conditions can be assumed to be WMC-specific. Processes not varying across task conditions, on the other hand, are probably independent of WMC. Fixed-links models allow for representing these two kinds of processes by two independent latent variables. In contrast to traditional CFA where a common latent variable is derived from the different task conditions, fixed-links models facilitate a more precise or purified representation of the WMC-related processes of interest. By using fixed-links modeling to analyze data of 200 participants, we identified a non-experimental latent variable, representing processes that remained constant irrespective of the WMC task conditions, and an experimental latent variable which reflected processes that varied as a function of experimental manipulation. This latter variable represents the increasing demands on WMC and, hence, was considered a purified measure of WMC controlled for the constant processes. Fixed-links modeling showed that both the purified measure of WMC (β = .48) as well as the constant processes involved in the task (β = .45) were related to Gf. Taken together, these two latent variables explained the same portion of variance of Gf as a single latent variable obtained by traditional CFA (β = .65) indicating that traditional CFA causes an overestimation of the effective relationship between WMC and Gf. Thus, fixed-links modeling provides a feasible method for a more valid investigation of the functional relationship between specific constructs.
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Recurrent wheezing or asthma is a common problem in children that has increased considerably in prevalence in the past few decades. The causes and underlying mechanisms are poorly understood and it is thought that a numb er of distinct diseases causing similar symptoms are involved. Due to the lack of a biologically founded classification system, children are classified according to their observed disease related features (symptoms, signs, measurements) into phenotypes. The objectives of this PhD project were a) to develop tools for analysing phenotypic variation of a disease, and b) to examine phenotypic variability of wheezing among children by applying these tools to existing epidemiological data. A combination of graphical methods (multivariate co rrespondence analysis) and statistical models (latent variables models) was used. In a first phase, a model for discrete variability (latent class model) was applied to data on symptoms and measurements from an epidemiological study to identify distinct phenotypes of wheezing. In a second phase, the modelling framework was expanded to include continuous variability (e.g. along a severity gradient) and combinations of discrete and continuo us variability (factor models and factor mixture models). The third phase focused on validating the methods using simulation studies. The main body of this thesis consists of 5 articles (3 published, 1 submitted and 1 to be submitted) including applications, methodological contributions and a review. The main findings and contributions were: 1) The application of a latent class model to epidemiological data (symptoms and physiological measurements) yielded plausible pheno types of wheezing with distinguishing characteristics that have previously been used as phenotype defining characteristics. 2) A method was proposed for including responses to conditional questions (e.g. questions on severity or triggers of wheezing are asked only to children with wheeze) in multivariate modelling.ii 3) A panel of clinicians was set up to agree on a plausible model for wheezing diseases. The model can be used to generate datasets for testing the modelling approach. 4) A critical review of methods for defining and validating phenotypes of wheeze in children was conducted. 5) The simulation studies showed that a parsimonious parameterisation of the models is required to identify the true underlying structure of the data. The developed approach can deal with some challenges of real-life cohort data such as variables of mixed mode (continuous and categorical), missing data and conditional questions. If carefully applied, the approach can be used to identify whether the underlying phenotypic variation is discrete (classes), continuous (factors) or a combination of these. These methods could help improve precision of research into causes and mechanisms and contribute to the development of a new classification of wheezing disorders in children and other diseases which are difficult to classify.
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BACKGROUND & AIMS The interaction of KIR with their HLA ligands drives the activation and inhibition of natural killer (NK) cells. NK cells could be implicated in the development of liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis C. METHODS We analysed 206 non-transplanted and 53 liver transplanted patients, selected according to their Metavir fibrosis stage. Several variables such as the number of activator KIR or the HLA ligands were considered in multinomial and logistic regression models. Possible confounding variables were also investigated. RESULTS The KIRs were not significant predictors of the fibrosis stage. Conversely, a significant reduction of the HLA-C1C2 genotype was observed in the most advanced fibrosis stage group (F4) in both cohorts. Furthermore, the progression rate of fibrosis was almost 10 times faster in the subgroup of patients after liver transplantation and HLA-C1C2 was significantly reduced in this cohort compared to non-transplanted patients. CONCLUSION This study suggests a possible role of KIR and their ligands in the development of liver damage. The absence of C1 and C2 ligands heterozygosity could lead to less inhibition of NK cells and a quicker progression to a high level of fibrosis in patients infected by HCV, especially following liver transplantation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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BACKGROUND Zebrafish is a clinically-relevant model of heart regeneration. Unlike mammals, it has a remarkable heart repair capacity after injury, and promises novel translational applications. Amputation and cryoinjury models are key research tools for understanding injury response and regeneration in vivo. An understanding of the transcriptional responses following injury is needed to identify key players of heart tissue repair, as well as potential targets for boosting this property in humans. RESULTS We investigated amputation and cryoinjury in vivo models of heart damage in the zebrafish through unbiased, integrative analyses of independent molecular datasets. To detect genes with potential biological roles, we derived computational prediction models with microarray data from heart amputation experiments. We focused on a top-ranked set of genes highly activated in the early post-injury stage, whose activity was further verified in independent microarray datasets. Next, we performed independent validations of expression responses with qPCR in a cryoinjury model. Across in vivo models, the top candidates showed highly concordant responses at 1 and 3 days post-injury, which highlights the predictive power of our analysis strategies and the possible biological relevance of these genes. Top candidates are significantly involved in cell fate specification and differentiation, and include heart failure markers such as periostin, as well as potential new targets for heart regeneration. For example, ptgis and ca2 were overexpressed, while usp2a, a regulator of the p53 pathway, was down-regulated in our in vivo models. Interestingly, a high activity of ptgis and ca2 has been previously observed in failing hearts from rats and humans. CONCLUSIONS We identified genes with potential critical roles in the response to cardiac damage in the zebrafish. Their transcriptional activities are reproducible in different in vivo models of cardiac injury.