Clinical signs of deformed wing virus infection are predictive markers for honey bee colony losses.

The ectoparasitic mite Varroa destructor acting as a virus vector constitutes a central mechanism for losses of managed honey bee, Apis mellifera, colonies. This creates demand for an easy, accurate and cheap diagnostic tool to estimate the impact of viruliferous mites in the field. Here we evaluated whether the clinical signs of the ubiquitous and mite-transmitted deformed wing virus (DWV) can be predictive markers of winter losses. In fall and winter 2007/2008, A.m. carnica workers with apparent wing deformities were counted daily in traps installed on 29 queenright colonies. The data show that colonies which later died had a significantly higher proportion of workers with wing deformities than did those which survived. There was a significant positive correlation between V. destructor infestation levels and the number of workers displaying DWV clinical signs, further supporting the mite's impact on virus infections at the colony level. A logistic regression model suggests that colony size, the number of workers with wing deformities and V. destructor infestation levels constitute predictive markers for winter colony losses in this order of importance and ease of evaluation.

Minimizing the Threat of a Positive Majority Deficit in Two-tier Voting Systems with Equipopulous Units

The mean majority deficit in a two-tier voting system is a function of the partition of the population. We derive a new square-root rule: For odd-numbered population sizes and equipopulous units the mean majority deficit is maximal when the member size of the units in the partition is close to the square root of the population size. Furthermore, within the partitions into roughly equipopulous units, partitions with small even numbers of units or small even-sized units yield high mean majority deficits. We discuss the implications for the winner-takes-all system in the US Electoral College.

Convolution roots and differentiability of isotropic positive definite functions on spheres

We prove that any isotropic positive definite function on the sphere can be written as the spherical self-convolution of an isotropic real-valued function. It is known that isotropic positive definite functions on d-dimensional Euclidean space admit a continuous derivative of order [(d − 1)/2]. We show that the same holds true for isotropic positive definite functions on spheres and prove that this result is optimal for all odd dimensions.

On the stratigraphic integrity of leaf-wax biomarkers in loess paleosols

Paleoenvironmental and paleoclimate reconstructions based on molecular proxies, such as those derived from leaf-wax biomarkers, in loess-paleosol sequences represent a promising line of investigation in Quaternary research. The main premise of such reconstructions is the synsedimentary deposition of biomarkers and dust, which has become a debated subject in recent years. This study uses two independent approaches to test the stratigraphic integrity of leaf-wax biomarkers: (i) long-chain n-alkanes and fatty acids are quantified in two sediment-depth profiles in glacial till on the Swiss Plateau, consisting of a Holocene topsoil and the underlying B and C horizons. Since glacial sediments are initially very poor in organic matter, significant amounts of leaf-wax biomarkers in the B and C horizons of those profiles would reflect postsedimentary root-derived or microbial contributions. (ii) Compound-specific radiocarbon measurements are conducted on n-alkanes and n-alkanoic (fatty) acids from several depth intervals in the loess section "Crvenka", Serbia, and the results are compared to independent estimates of sediment age. We find extremely low concentrations of plant-wax n-alkanes and fatty acids in the B and C horizons below the topsoils in the sediment profiles. Moreover, compound-specific radiocarbon analysis yields plant-wax 14C ages that agree well with published luminescence ages and stratigraphy of the Serbian loess deposit. Both approaches confirm that postsedimentary, root-derived or microbial contributions are negligible in the two investigated systems. The good agreement between the ages of odd and even homologues also indicates that reworking and incorporation of fossil leaf waxes is not particularly relevant either.

Improved predictions for μ\to e conversion in nuclei and Higgs-induced lepton flavor violation

Compared to μ→eγ and μ→eee, the process μ→e conversion in nuclei receives enhanced contributions from Higgs-induced lepton flavor violation. Upcoming μ→e conversion experiments with drastically increased sensitivity will be able to put extremely stringent bounds on Higgs-mediated μ→e transitions. We point out that the theoretical uncertainties associated with these Higgs effects, encoded in the couplings of quark scalar operators to the nucleon, can be accurately assessed using our recently developed approach based on SU(2) chiral perturbation theory that cleanly separates two- and three-flavor observables. We emphasize that with input from lattice QCD for the coupling to strangeness fNs, hadronic uncertainties are appreciably reduced compared to the traditional approach where fNs is determined from the pion-nucleon σ term by means of an SU(3) relation. We illustrate this point by considering Higgs-mediated lepton flavor violation in the standard model supplemented with higher-dimensional operators, the two-Higgs-doublet model with generic Yukawa couplings, and the minimal supersymmetric standard model. Furthermore, we compare bounds from present and future μ→e conversion and μ→eγ experiments.

Lobotomy of Flux Compactifications

We provide the dictionary between four-dimensional gauged supergravity and type II compactifications on T6 with metric and gauge fluxes in the absence of supersymmetry breaking sources, such as branes and orientifold planes. Secondly, we prove that there is a unique isotropic compactification allowing for critical points. It corresponds to a type IIA background given by a product of two 3-tori with SO(3) twists and results in a unique theory (gauging) with a non-semisimple gauge algebra. Besides the known four AdS solutions surviving the orientifold projection to N = 4 induced by O6-planes, this theory contains a novel AdS solution that requires non-trivial orientifold-odd fluxes, hence being a genuine critical point of the N = 8 theory.

A multi-model comparison of Atlantic multidecadal variability

A multi-model analysis of Atlantic multidecadal variability is performed with the following aims: to investigate the similarities to observations; to assess the strength and relative importance of the different elements of the mechanism proposed by Delworth et al. (J Clim 6:1993–2011, 1993) (hereafter D93) among coupled general circulation models (CGCMs); and to relate model differences to mean systematic error. The analysis is performed with long control simulations from ten CGCMs, with lengths ranging between 500 and 3600 years. In most models the variations of sea surface temperature (SST) averaged over North Atlantic show considerable power on multidecadal time scales, but with different periodicity. The SST variations are largest in the mid-latitude region, consistent with the short instrumental record. Despite large differences in model configurations, we find quite some consistency among the models in terms of processes. In eight of the ten models the mid-latitude SST variations are significantly correlated with fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), suggesting a link to northward heat transport changes. Consistent with this link, the three models with the weakest AMOC have the largest cold SST bias in the North Atlantic. There is no linear relationship on decadal timescales between AMOC and North Atlantic Oscillation in the models. Analysis of the key elements of the D93 mechanisms revealed the following: Most models present strong evidence that high-latitude winter mixing precede AMOC changes. However, the regions of wintertime convection differ among models. In most models salinity-induced density anomalies in the convective region tend to lead AMOC, while temperature-induced density anomalies lead AMOC only in one model. However, analysis shows that salinity may play an overly important role in most models, because of cold temperature biases in their relevant convective regions. In most models subpolar gyre variations tend to lead AMOC changes, and this relation is strong in more than half of the models.

The anisotropic λ -deformed SU(2) model is integrable

The all-loop anisotropic Thirring model interpolates between the WZW model and the non-Abelian T-dual of the anisotropic principal chiral model. We focus on the SU(2) case and we prove that it is classically integrable by providing its Lax pair formulation. We derive its underlying symmetry current algebra and use it to show that the Poisson brackets of the spatial part of the Lax pair, assume the Maillet form. In this way we procure the corresponding r and s matrices which provide non-trivial solutions to the modified Yang–Baxter equation.

Relating in situ gas measurements to the surface outgassing properties of cometary nuclei

The sensitivity of the gas flow field to changes in different initial conditions has been studied for the case of a highly simplified cometary nucleus model. The nucleus model simulated a homogeneously outgassing sphere with a more active ring around an axis of symmetry. The varied initial conditions were the number density of the homogeneous region, the surface temperature, and the composition of the flow (varying amounts of H2O and CO2) from the active ring. The sensitivity analysis was performed using the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) method. Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) was used for the flow, thereby allowing strong deviations from local thermal equilibrium. The PCE approach can be used to produce a sensitivity analysis with only four runs per modified input parameter and allows one to study and quantify non-linear responses of measurable parameters to linear changes in the input over a wide range. Hence the PCE allows one to obtain a functional relationship between the flow field properties at every point in the inner coma and the input conditions. It is for example shown that the velocity and the temperature of the background gas are not simply linear functions of the initial number density at the source. As probably expected, the main influence on the resulting flow field parameter is the corresponding initial parameter (i.e. the initial number density determines the background number density, the temperature of the surface determines the flow field temperature, etc.). However, the velocity of the flow field is also influenced by the surface temperature while the number density is not sensitive to the surface temperature at all in our model set-up. Another example is the change in the composition of the flow over the active area. Such changes can be seen in the velocity but again not in the number density. Although this study uses only a simple test case, we suggest that the approach, when applied to a real case in 3D, should assist in identifying the sensitivity of gas parameters measured in situ by, for example, the Rosetta spacecraft to the surface boundary conditions and vice versa.