A physics-based correction model for homogenizing sub-daily temperature series

A new physics-based technique for correcting inhomogeneities present in sub-daily temperature records is proposed. The approach accounts for changes in the sensor-shield characteristics that affect the energy balance dependent on ambient weather conditions (radiation, wind). An empirical model is formulated that reflects the main atmospheric processes and can be used in the correction step of a homogenization procedure. The model accounts for short- and long-wave radiation fluxes (including a snow cover component for albedo calculation) of a measurement system, such as a radiation shield. One part of the flux is further modulated by ventilation. The model requires only cloud cover and wind speed for each day, but detailed site-specific information is necessary. The final model has three free parameters, one of which is a constant offset. The three parameters can be determined, e.g., using the mean offsets for three observation times. The model is developed using the example of the change from the Wild screen to the Stevenson screen in the temperature record of Basel, Switzerland, in 1966. It is evaluated based on parallel measurements of both systems during a sub-period at this location, which were discovered during the writing of this paper. The model can be used in the correction step of homogenization to distribute a known mean step-size to every single measurement, thus providing a reasonable alternative correction procedure for high-resolution historical climate series. It also constitutes an error model, which may be applied, e.g., in data assimilation approaches.

Predicting perceived vulnerability for breast cancer among women with an average breast cancer risk

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of the present study was to investigate predictors of perceived vulnerability for breast cancer in women with an average risk for breast cancer. On the basis of empirical findings that suggested which variables might be associated with perceived vulnerability for breast cancer, we investigated whether knowledge of breast cancer risk factors, cancer worry, intrusions about breast cancer, optimism about not getting cancer and perceived health status have a predictive value for perceived breast cancer vulnerability. DESIGN: In a 3-step approach, we recruited 292 women from the general public in Germany who had neither a family history of breast cancer nor breast cancer themselves. After receiving an initial informational letter about study objectives, the women were interviewed by telephone and then asked to fill in a self-administered questionnaire. METHODS: We used structural equation modelling and hypothesized that each of the included variables has a direct influence on perceived vulnerability for breast cancer. RESULTS: We found a valid model with acceptable fit indices. Optimism about not getting cancer, intrusions about breast cancer and women's perceived health status explained 32% of the variance of perceived vulnerability for breast cancer. Cancer worry and knowledge about breast cancer did not influence perceived vulnerability for breast cancer. CONCLUSION: Perceived vulnerability for breast cancer is associated with health-related variables more than with knowledge about breast cancer risk factors.

Diabetic patients treated for unprotected left main coronary artery disease with drug eluting stents: a 3-year clinical outcome study. The diabetes and drug eluting stent for LeFT main registry (D-DELFT)

AIMS: Diabetes mellitus (DM) plays an important role in the development of coronary artery disease. Although previous studies have associated drug-eluting stent (DES) implantation in diabetic patients with favourable clinical and angiographic outcomes, the very long-term efficacy of these devices in diabetic patients undergoing PCI for significant unprotected left main coronary artery (ULMCA) disease has not been established yet. METHODS AND RESULTS: Consecutive diabetic patients (n=100), who underwent elective PCI with DES for de novo lesions in an ULMCA between April 2002 and April 2004 in seven tertiary health care centres, were identified retrospectively and analysed. Consecutive non-diabetic patients (n=193), who underwent elective DES implantation for unprotected ULMCA disease, were selected as a control group. All patients were followed for at least 36 months. At 3-years follow-up, freedom from cardiac death ; myocardial infarction (CDMI), target lesion revascularisation (TLR) and target vessel revascularisation (TVR) did not differ significantly between groups. The adjusted freedom from major adverse cardiac events (MACE, defined as the occurrence of CD, MI or TVR) was 63.4% in the DM group and 77.6% in the controls (p<0.001). When divided into IDDM and NIDDM sub-groups, insulin-dependent DM (IDDM) but not non IDDM (NIDDM) patients had significantly lower freedom from CDMI, TLR, TVR and MACE compared to controls. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that major improvements in DES technology and pharmacotherapy are still required to improve clinical outcome and that the decision to perform percutaneous revascularisation in this subset of patients should be taken cautiously and on a case by case basis.

Mortality of HIV-infected patients starting antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa: comparison with HIV-unrelated mortality

BACKGROUND: Mortality in HIV-infected patients who have access to highly active antiretroviral therapy (ART) has declined in sub-Saharan Africa, but it is unclear how mortality compares to the non-HIV-infected population. We compared mortality rates observed in HIV-1-infected patients starting ART with non-HIV-related background mortality in four countries in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Patients enrolled in antiretroviral treatment programmes in Côte d'Ivoire, Malawi, South Africa, and Zimbabwe were included. We calculated excess mortality rates and standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Expected numbers of deaths were obtained using estimates of age-, sex-, and country-specific, HIV-unrelated, mortality rates from the Global Burden of Disease project. Among 13,249 eligible patients 1,177 deaths were recorded during 14,695 person-years of follow-up. The median age was 34 y, 8,831 (67%) patients were female, and 10,811 of 12,720 patients (85%) with information on clinical stage had advanced disease when starting ART. The excess mortality rate was 17.5 (95% CI 14.5-21.1) per 100 person-years SMR in patients who started ART with a CD4 cell count of less than 25 cells/microl and World Health Organization (WHO) stage III/IV, compared to 1.00 (0.55-1.81) per 100 person-years in patients who started with 200 cells/microl or above with WHO stage I/II. The corresponding SMRs were 47.1 (39.1-56.6) and 3.44 (1.91-6.17). Among patients who started ART with 200 cells/microl or above in WHO stage I/II and survived the first year of ART, the excess mortality rate was 0.27 (0.08-0.94) per 100 person-years and the SMR was 1.14 (0.47-2.77). CONCLUSIONS: Mortality of HIV-infected patients treated with combination ART in sub-Saharan Africa continues to be higher than in the general population, but for some patients excess mortality is moderate and reaches that of the general population in the second year of ART. Much of the excess mortality might be prevented by timely initiation of ART.

Life partnerships in childhood cancer survivors, their siblings, and the general population

Background: Life partnerships other than marriage are rarely studied in childhood cancer survivors (CCS). We aimed (1) to describe life partnership and marriage in CCS and compare them to life partnerships in siblings and the general population; and (2) to identify socio-demographic and cancer-related factors associated with life partnership and marriage. Methods: As part of the Swiss Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (SCCSS), a questionnaire was sent to all CCS (aged 20–40 years) registered in the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry (SCCR), aged <16 years at diagnosis, who had survived ≥5 years. The proportion with life partner or married was compared between CSS and siblings and participants in the Swiss Health Survey (SHS). Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with life partnership or marriage. Results: We included 1,096 CCS of the SCCSS, 500 siblings and 5,593 participants of the SHS. Fewer CCS (47%) than siblings (61%, P < 0.001) had life partners, and fewer CCS were married (16%) than among the SHS population (26%, P > 0.001). Older (OR = 1.14, P < 0.001) and female CCS (OR = 1.85, <0.001) were more likely to have life partners. CCS who had undergone radiotherapy, bone marrow transplants (global PTreatment = 0.018) or who had a CNS diagnosis (global PDiagnosis < 0.001) were less likely to have life partners. Conclusion: CCS are less likely to have life partners than their peers. Most CCS with a life partner were not married. Future research should focus on the effect of these disparities on the quality of life of CCS.

Fulfilled and missed requirements for online reservation systems: an empirical investigation of Austrian and Swiss hotels

Temporal data are a core element of a reservation. In this paper we formulate 10 requirements and 14 sub-requirements for handling temporal data in online hotel reservation systems (OHRS) from a usability viewpoint. We test the fulfillment of these requirements for city and resort hotels in Austria and Switzerland. Some of the requirements are widely met; however, many requirements are fulfilled only by a surprisingly small number of hotels. In particular, numerous systems offer options for selecting data which lead to error messages in the next step. A few screenshots illustrate flaws of the systems. We also draw conclusions on the state of applying software engineering principles in the development of Web pages.

A survey of paediatric HIV programmatic and clinical management practices in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa--the International epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA)

INTRODUCTION There are limited data on paediatric HIV care and treatment programmes in low-resource settings. METHODS A standardized survey was completed by International epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS paediatric cohort sites in the regions of Asia-Pacific (AP), Central Africa (CA), East Africa (EA), Southern Africa (SA) and West Africa (WA) to understand operational resource availability and paediatric management practices. Data were collected through January 2010 using a secure, web-based software program (REDCap). RESULTS A total of 64,552 children were under care at 63 clinics (AP, N=10; CA, N=4; EA, N=29; SA, N=10; WA, N=10). Most were in urban settings (N=41, 65%) and received funding from governments (N=51, 81%), PEPFAR (N=34, 54%), and/or the Global Fund (N=15, 24%). The majority were combined adult-paediatric clinics (N=36, 57%). Prevention of mother-to-child transmission was integrated at 35 (56%) sites; 89% (N=56) had access to DNA PCR for infant diagnosis. African (N=40/53) but not Asian sites recommended exclusive breastfeeding up until 4-6 months. Regular laboratory monitoring included CD4 (N=60, 95%), and viral load (N=24, 38%). Although 42 (67%) sites had the ability to conduct acid-fast bacilli (AFB) smears, 23 (37%) sites could conduct AFB cultures and 18 (29%) sites could conduct tuberculosis drug susceptibility testing. Loss to follow-up was defined as >3 months of lost contact for 25 (40%) sites, >6 months for 27 sites (43%) and >12 months for 6 sites (10%). Telephone calls (N=52, 83%) and outreach worker home visits to trace children lost to follow-up (N=45, 71%) were common. CONCLUSIONS In general, there was a high level of patient and laboratory monitoring within this multiregional paediatric cohort consortium that will facilitate detailed observational research studies. Practices will continue to be monitored as the WHO/UNAIDS Treatment 2.0 framework is implemented.

HHV-8 seroprevalence: a global view

BACKGROUND Human herpes virus 8 (HHV-8) is the underlying infectious cause of Kaposi sarcoma (KS) and other proliferative diseases; that is, primary effusion lymphoma and multicentric Castleman disease. In regions with high HHV-8 seroprevalence in the general population, KS accounts for a major burden of disease. Outside these endemic regions, HHV-8 prevalence is high in men who have sex with men (MSM) and in migrants from endemic regions. We aim to conduct a systematic literature review and meta-analysis in order 1) to define the global distribution of HHV-8 seroprevalence (primary objective) and 2) to identify risk factors for HHV-8 infection, with a focus on HIV status (secondary objective). METHODS/DESIGN We will include observational studies reporting data on seroprevalence of HHV-8 in children and/or adults from any region in the world. Case reports and case series as well as any studies with fewer than 50 participants will be excluded. We will search MEDLINE, EMBASE, and relevant conference proceedings without language restriction. Two reviewers will independently screen the identified studies and extract data on study characteristics and quality, study population, risk factors, and reported outcomes, using a standardized form. For the primary objective we will pool the data using a fully bayesian approach for meta-analysis, with random effects at the study level. For the secondary objective (association of HIV and HHV-8) we aim to pool odds ratios for the association of HIV and HHV-8 using a fully bayesian approach for meta-analysis, with random effects at the study level. Sub-group analyses and meta-regression analyses will be used to explore sources of heterogeneity, including factors such as geographical region, calendar years of recruitment, age, gender, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, different risk groups for sexually and parenterally transmitted infections (MSM, sex workers, hemophiliacs, intravenous drug users), comorbidities such as organ transplantation and malaria, test(s) used to measure HHV-8 infection, study design, and study quality. DISCUSSION Using the proposed systematic review and meta-analysis, we aim to better define the global seroprevalence of HHV-8 and its associated risk factors. This will improve the current understanding of HHV-8 epidemiology, and could suggest measures to prevent HHV-8 infection and to reduce its associated cancer burden.

Voter Participation in the 1998 Bundestag Elections: A Theoretical Modification and Empirical Application of Downs’ Theory of Voter Participation

This article seeks to contribute to the illumination of the so-called 'paradox of voting' using the German Bundestag elections of 1998 as an empirical case. Downs' model of voter participation will be extended to include elements of the theory of subjective expected utility (SEU). This will allow a theoretical and empirical exploration of the crucial mechanisms of individual voters' decisions to participate, or abstain from voting, in the German general election of 1998. It will be argued that the infinitely low probability of an individual citizen's vote to decide the election outcome will not necessarily reduce the probability of electoral participation. The empirical analysis is largely based on data from the ALLBUS 1998. It confirms the predictions derived from SEU theory. The voters' expected benefits and their subjective expectation to be able to influence government policy by voting are the crucial mechanisms to explain participation. By contrast, the explanatory contribution of perceived information and opportunity costs is low.

Leveraging Trust and Privacy Concerns in Online Social Networks: an Empirical Study

Unprecedented success of Online Social Networks, such as Facebook, has been recently overshadowed by the privacy risks they imply. Weary of privacy concerns and unable to construct their identity in the desired way, users may restrict or even terminate their platform activities. Even though this means a considerable business risk for these platforms, so far there have been no studies on how to enable social network providers to address these problems. This study fills this gap by adopting a fairness perspective to analyze related measures at the disposal of the provider. In a Structural Equation Model with 237 subjects we find that ensuring interactional and procedural justice are two important strategies to support user participation on the platform.

Gender Stereotypes and Gendered Vocational Aspirations among Secondary School Students

Research Topic/Aim: Horizontal gender inequalities appear to be rather stable, with girls more often choosing ‘female' service professions, and boys choosing career paths related to science, technology, engineering or mathematics, since measures to bring more women into typical ‘male' jobs and more men into typical ‘female' jobs did not turn out to be sustainable. This paper focuses on gender stereotypes, namely non-egalitarian patriarchal gender-role orientations and gender associations of the school subjects German and mathematics. Dealing with and abolishing such gender stereotypes may be key strategy to reach sustainability regarding more equal vocational choices. Thus, gender stereotypes will be theorised and empirically analysed as a major predictor of gender-typical vocational perspectives considering interest in these school subjects as a mediating factor. Furthermore, we focus on structural patriarchy as a root of gender-role orientations, and teacher gender regarding its impact on gendered images of subjects. Theoretical and methodology framework: Our analyses of gender segregation in vocational aspirations and vocational choice center on Gottfredson's (2002; Gottfredson and Becker, 1981) Theory of Circumscription, Compromise and Self-Creation. One of the main assumptions of this theory is that people associate jobs with particular sexes and those jobs that do not fit particular gender roles are not considered. Empirical analyses are based on survey data of eighth-graders in the Swiss canton of Bern (N = 672). Structural Equation Models (SEM) for male and female students are estimated. Conclusions/Findings: Results reveal different patterns for boys and girls; for boys, gender-typical (male) vocational perspective could be explained via gender role orientations, interest in mathematics and gender associations of the school subjects, for girls, the factors under consideration could be empirically linked to ‘atypical vocational perspective'. Relevance to Nordic educational research: The study focuses on gender relations in society and how they are reproduced. Gender segregation in vocational choice and at the labour market is a universal issue - affecting both egalitarian and non-egalitarian gender regimes in similar ways. Although in general Northern countries appear to be more equal regarding gender inequality, gender segregation is rather persistent (Jarman, Blackburn and Brooks, 2012) and therefore remains a relevant topic.

Biodiversity effects on nitrate concentrations in soil solution: a Bayesian model

Ecosystems are faced with high rates of species loss which has consequences for their functions and services. To assess the effects of plant species diversity on the nitrogen (N) cycle, we developed a model for monthly mean nitrate (NO3-N) concentrations in soil solution in 0-30 cm mineral soil depth using plant species and functional group richness and functional composition as drivers and assessing the effects of conversion of arable land to grassland, spatially heterogeneous soil properties, and climate. We used monthly mean NO3-N concentrations from 62 plots of a grassland plant diversity experiment from 2003 to 2006. Plant species richness (1-60) and functional group composition (1-4 functional groups: legumes, grasses, non-leguminous tall herbs, non-leguminous small herbs) were manipulated in a factorial design. Plant community composition, time since conversion from arable land to grassland, soil texture, and climate data (precipitation, soil moisture, air and soil temperature) were used to develop one general Bayesian multiple regression model for the 62 plots to allow an in-depth evaluation using the experimental design. The model simulated NO3-N concentrations with an overall Bayesian coefficient of determination of 0.48. The temporal course of NO3-N concentrations was simulated differently well for the individual plots with a maximum plot-specific Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.57. The model shows that NO3-N concentrations decrease with species richness, but this relation reverses if more than approx. 25 % of legume species are included in the mixture. Presence of legumes increases and presence of grasses decreases NO3-N concentrations compared to mixtures containing only small and tall herbs. Altogether, our model shows that there is a strong influence of plant community composition on NO3-N concentrations.

Optimizing Triage and Hospitalization in Adult General Medical Emergency Patients. The Triage Project

Background: Patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) currently face inacceptable delays in initial treatment, and long, costly hospital stays due to suboptimal initial triage and site-of-care decisions. Accurate ED triage should focus not only on initial treatment priority, but also on prediction of medical risk and nursing needs to improve site-of-care decisions and to simplify early discharge management. Different triage scores have been proposed, such as the Manchester triage system (MTS). Yet, these scores focus only on treatment priority, have suboptimal performance and lack validation in the Swiss health care system. Because the MTS will be introduced into clinical routine at the Kantonsspital Aarau, we propose a large prospective cohort study to optimize initial patient triage. Specifically, the aim of this trial is to derive a three-part triage algorithm to better predict (a) treatment priority; (b) medical risk and thus need for in-hospital treatment; (c) post-acute care needs of patients at the most proximal time point of ED admission. Methods/design: Prospective, observational, multicenter, multi-national cohort study. We will include all consecutive medical patients seeking ED care into this observational registry. There will be no exclusions except for non-adult and non-medical patients. Vital signs will be recorded and left over blood samples will be stored for later batch analysis of blood markers. Upon ED admission, the post-acute care discharge score (PACD) will be recorded. Attending ED physicians will adjudicate triage priority based on all available results at the time of ED discharge to the medical ward. Patients will be reassessed daily during the hospital course for medical stability and readiness for discharge from the nurses and if involved social workers perspective. To assess outcomes, data from electronic medical records will be used and all patients will be contacted 30 days after hospital admission to assess vital and functional status, re-hospitalization, satisfaction with care and quality of life measures. We aim to include between 5000 and 7000 patients over one year of recruitment to derive the three-part triage algorithm. The respective main endpoints were defined as (a) initial triage priority (high vs. low priority) adjudicated by the attending ED physician at ED discharge, (b) adverse 30 day outcome (death or intensive care unit admission) within 30 days following ED admission to assess patients risk and thus need for in-hospital treatment and (c) post acute care needs after hospital discharge, defined as transfer of patients to a post-acute care institution, for early recognition and planning of post-acute care needs. Other outcomes are time to first physician contact, time to initiation of adequate medical therapy, time to social worker involvement, length of hospital stay, reasons fordischarge delays, patient’s satisfaction with care, overall hospital costs and patients care needs after returning home. Discussion: Using a reliable initial triage system for estimating initial treatment priority, need for in-hospital treatment and post-acute care needs is an innovative and persuasive approach for a more targeted and efficient management of medical patients in the ED. The proposed interdisciplinary , multi-national project has unprecedented potential to improve initial triage decisions and optimize resource allocation to the sickest patients from admission to discharge. The algorithms derived in this study will be compared in a later randomized controlled trial against a usual care control group in terms of resource use, length of hospital stay, overall costs and patient’s outcomes in terms of mortality, re-hospitalization, quality of life and satisfaction with care.

When to see a doctor for common health problems: distribution patterns of functional health literacy across migrant populations in Switzerland

BACKGROUND Knowing when to seek professional help for health problems is considered an important aspect of health literacy. However, little is known about the distribution of help-seeking knowledge in the general population or specific subpopulations. METHODS We analysed data from the "Health Monitoring of the Swiss Migrant Population 2010" and used a short survey tool to study the distribution of help-seeking knowledge. We sampled members of four migrant groups (from Portugal, Turkey, Serbia and Kosovo; n = 2,614). Our tool contained 12 items that addressed common physical and psychological health problems. A total sum score measured help-seeking knowledge. Two sub-scores analysed knowledge related to potential overuse (minor symptoms) or potential underuse (major symptoms). We applied linear regression to show variations in help-seeking knowledge by age, sex, region of origin and length of stay. RESULTS Controlling for self-rated health, we found that region of origin, higher education, female gender and younger age were significantly associated with higher knowledge scores. CONCLUSIONS We present empirical evidence of unequal distribution of help-seeking knowledge across four migrant populations in Switzerland. Our findings contribute to current conceptual developments in health literacy, and provide starting points for future research.