Exploring intra-commonwealth goods and services trade

A background paper for the Commonwealth Secretariat by Anirudh Shingal and Mohammad Razzaque: Existing work examining the trade effect of commonwealth membership does not account for sample selection, unobserved heterogeneity and multilateral resistance in estimation, leading to biased estimates. Our analyses improve on all these fronts. Unlike earlier work, we also consider services trade and assemble a much larger sample of trading partners (242 x 242, over 1995-2010). Commonwealth membership is found to increase goods exports by 18.5-33.2% and services exports by 42.8% in our results, ceteris paribus and on average. Our analyses on the determinants of intra-commonwealth trade suggest the positive role of common language (only for goods trade) and colonial relationships as well as the negative impact of geography, thereby confirming that commonwealth member states are not natural trading partners for each other. Finally, being one of Australia, Canada or the UK is associated with 98.2% greater merchandise trade than the commonwealth average; however, a similar effect is not observed for services trade.

To fuse or not to fuse? Assessing the case for convergent disciplines on goods and services trade

Think piece by Pierre Sauvé for the E15 Initiative on Strengthening the Global Trade System In his latest essay for the ICTSD-World Economic Forum E15 initiative on Strengthening the Global Trade and Investment System for Sustainable Development, WTI Director of External Programmes and Academic Partnerships and faculty member Pierre Sauvé explores the case for fusing the law of goods with that of services in a world of global value chains. The paper does so by directing attention to the questions of whether the current architectures of multilateral and preferential trade governance are compatible with a world of trade in tasks; whether the existing rules offer globally active firms a coherent structure for doing business in a predictable environment; whether it is feasible to redesign the structure and content of existing trade rules to align them to the reality of production fragmentation; and what steps can be envisaged to better align policy and realities in the marketplace if the prospects for restructuring appear unfavourable. The paper argues that fusing trade disciplines for goods and services is neither needed nor feasible and may actually deflect attention from a number of worthwhile policy initiatives where more realistic (if never easily secured) prospects of generic rule-making may well exist.

Exploring complementarities between goods and services trade in trade agreements

More than three decades of research on trade costs and goods trade have unveiled fundamental insights into the determinants, the nature and the consequences of goods trade agreements. A cottage literature has also evolved studying similar issues from a services trade perspective, but the two-way interaction between goods and services trade has not been explored formally. We bridge this gap by providing a formal treatment of the inter-linkages between goods and services trade. The model provides insights into how trade agreements impact goods and services trade. We also explore the impact of the complementarities of goods and services agreements on goods and services trade empirically using bilateral goods and services trade data for OECD and BRICS trading partners over 1995-2010.

Differences between recent and historical records of upperspecies limits in the northern European Alps

Are there differences in historical and recent upper range limits of vascular plants and are such differences more pronounced in individual species groups? The limits of 1103 plants of the Northern Alps are compared to range limits in the mid-19th century. The comparison is based on two surveys. The first survey was conducted by Otto Sendtner in 1848–1853, the second in 1991–2008 during a habitat inventory. To our knowledge this is the first comparative studies reaching back to the end of the “Little Ice Age” and comprising an almost entire regional flora covering the complete range of habitats. During the recent survey, most species were found at higher elevations. Even though the differences fit well with the expected shifts due to climate warming we cannot exclude effects of sampling bias. However, we assume that the relative differences between species groups can be safely interpreted. The differences in upper limits between both surveys were significantly larger among forest species. The most important reason is probably discontinued pasture and mowing, which may have amplified possible warming effects. Nitrogen deposits may have contributed to this effect by placing competitive species in a more advantageous position.

The Law of the WTO and the Communications Law of the EC : On a Path of Harmony or Discord?

This paper presents an overview of the law of the World Trade Organization (WTO) relevant to telecommunications services and correlates this body of law with the current regulatory framework for electronic communications networks and services in the European Community. The latter has been adapted to meet the challenges of technological and market developments in communications, epitomized by the processes of digitization, enhanced transport networks and convergence. The novel solutions embodied in the EC electronic communications regime, notably, a new design of the Significant Market Power mechanism, a projected withdrawal of sector specific regulation and an affirmation of the principle of technological neutrality, pose interesting questions as to the conformity of this reformed EC communications law with the WTO rules on telecommunications services and the obligations of the European Communities and their Member States. Looking beyond the WTO legal compatibility test, essential questions regarding the need for evolution of the WTO telecommunications rules are raised. The present paper contributes to the ongoing debate in that context in light of the EC experience.

The Protection and Promotion of Cultural Diversity in a Digital Networked Environment : Mapping Possible Advances to Coherence

The present paper is the result of a four-year-long project examining the concept and the policies of cultural diversity and the impact of digital media upon the regulatory environment where the goal of cultural diversity is to be achieved. The focus of the project was primarily on the international level and in particular on the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), which also epitomise the often framed as opposing pair of trade and culture. In the broad context of the project, we sought to pinpoint the essential elements of an international trade-and-culture conducive framework that can also overcome the existing fragmentation in the field of international law and move towards more coherent solutions. In a narrower context, we sketched some possible improvements to the WTO law that can make it more suitable to the digital networked environment and to the objective of diverse media that some states aspire. . Our key messages are: (1) Neither the WTO nor UNESCO currently offers appropriate solutions to the trade and culture predicament and allows for efficient protection and promotion of cultural diversity; (2) The trade and culture discourse is overly politicised and due to the related path dependencies, a number of feasible solutions appears presently blocked; (3) The digital networked environment has profoundly changed the ways cultural content is created, distributed, accessed and consumed, and may thus offer good reasons to reassess and readjust the present models of governance; (4) Access to information appears to be the most appropriate focus of the discussions with view to protecting and promoting cultural diversity in the new digital media setting, both in local and global contexts; (5) This new focal point demands also broadening and interconnecting the policy discussions, which should go beyond the narrow scope of audiovisual media services, but cautiously account for the developments at the network and applications levels, as well as in other domains, such as most notably intellectual property rights protection; (6) There are various ways in which the WTO can be made more conducive to cultural policy considerations and these include, among others, improved and updated services classifications; enhanced legal certainty with regard to digitally transferred goods and services; incorporation of rules on subsidies for services and on competition.

Measurements of fiducial and differential cross sections for Higgs boson production in the diphoton decay channel at √s=8 TeV with ATLAS

Measurements of fiducial and differential cross sections are presented for Higgs boson production in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 8TeV. The analysis is performed in the H → γγ decay channel using 20.3 fb−1 of data recorded by the ATLAS experiment at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. The signal is extracted using a fit to the diphoton invariant mass spectrum assuming that the width of the resonance is much smaller than the experimental resolution. The signal yields are corrected for the effects of detector inefficiency and resolution. The pp → H → γγ fiducial cross section is measured to be 43.2 ±9.4 (stat.) +3.2 −2.9 (syst.) ±1.2 (lumi) fb for a Higgs boson of mass 125.4 GeV decaying to two isolated photons that have transverse momentum greater than 35% and 25% of the diphoton invariant mass and each with absolute pseudorapidity less than 2.37. Four additional fiducial cross sections and two cross-section limits are presented in phase space regions that test the theoretical modelling of different Higgs boson production mechanisms, or are sensitive to physics beyond the Standard Model. Differential cross sections are also presented, as a function of variables related to the diphoton kinematics and the jet activity produced in the Higgs boson events. The observed spectra are statistically limited but broadly in line with the theoretical expectations.

Search for microscopic black holes and string balls in final states with leptons and jets with the ATLAS detector at √s = 8 TeV

A search for an excess of events with multiple high transverse momentum objects including charged leptons and jets is presented, using 20.3 fb−1 of proton-proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider in 2012 at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 8TeV. No excess of events beyond Standard Model expectations is observed. Using extra-dimensional models for black hole and string ball production and decay, exclusion contours are determined as a function of the mass threshold for production and the fundamental gravity scale for two, four and six extra dimensions. For six extra dimensions, mass thresholds of 4.8–6.2TeV are excluded at 95% confidence level, depending on the fundamental gravity scale and model assumptions. Upper limits on the fiducial cross-sections for non-Standard Model production of these final states are set.

Coupled human and natural system dynamics as key to the sustainability of Lake Victoria's ecosystem services

East Africa’s Lake Victoria provides resources and services to millions of people on the lake’s shores and abroad. In particular, the lake’s fisheries are an important source of protein, employment, and international economic connections for the whole region. Nonetheless, stock dynamics are poorly understood and currently unpredictable. Furthermore, fishery dynamics are intricately connected to other supporting services of the lake as well as to lakeshore societies and economies. Much research has been carried out piecemeal on different aspects of Lake Victoria’s system; e.g., societies, biodiversity, fisheries, and eutrophication. However, to disentangle drivers and dynamics of change in this complex system, we need to put these pieces together and analyze the system as a whole. We did so by first building a qualitative model of the lake’s social-ecological system. We then investigated the model system through a qualitative loop analysis, and finally examined effects of changes on the system state and structure. The model and its contextual analysis allowed us to investigate system-wide chain reactions resulting from disturbances. Importantly, we built a tool that can be used to analyze the cascading effects of management options and establish the requirements for their success. We found that high connectedness of the system at the exploitation level, through fisheries having multiple target stocks, can increase the stocks’ vulnerability to exploitation but reduce society’s vulnerability to variability in individual stocks. We describe how there are multiple pathways to any change in the system, which makes it difficult to identify the root cause of changes but also broadens the management toolkit. Also, we illustrate how nutrient enrichment is not a self-regulating process, and that explicit management is necessary to halt or reverse eutrophication. This model is simple and usable to assess system-wide effects of management policies, and can serve as a paving stone for future quantitative analyses of system dynamics at local scales.

Prometheus on Mars: Nineteenth-Century Science Fiction and the Language of Romanticism

The development of astrophysics in the nineteenth century drew mankind closer to the planets. For the first time, it was possible to give serious scientific consideration to the possibilities for life on other planets. The greatest leap, however, was in recognizing what was not known, and acknowledging the limits of human intuition. ‘Ideas,’ wrote Agnes M. Clerke, ‘have all at once become plastic’. As the scientific community tested the limits of scientific understanding, it became the role of science-fiction writers to imagine the universe beyond these limits. This paper will examine the ways in which nineteenth-century science fiction used the inheritance of the poetic language of Romanticism to reinstate the centrality of human being in the universe. I will explore the ways in which writers such as Edward Bulwer-Lytton (The Coming Race, 1871) and W. S. Lach-Szyrma (Aleriel, 1883) extended the Byronic hero to envisage extra-terrestrial utopias. The Hegelian systematic mythology described by Byron and Shelley had reimagined paradise and redemption on earth. Through science fiction, this mythology extended out towards the stars. A discourse on the possibilities of extra-terrestrial life became a Romantic discourse on the possibilities of being. The Byronic hero could now find a home not by escaping the shackles of religion, but as an angelic citizen of Venus or Mars. In this way, the paper will explore how science-fiction writers appropriated the language of Romantic poetry to build a bridge between the framework of scientific knowledge and the extent of human imagination.

Biotic and abiotic controls of nitrogen and phosphorus cycling in Central European forests

The functioning and services of Central European forests are threatened by global change and a loss of biodiversity. Nutrient cycling as a key forest function is affected by biotic drivers (e.g., dominant tree species, understory plants, soil organisms) that interact with abiotic conditions (e.g., climate, soil properties). In contrast to grassland ecosystems, evidence for the relationship of nutrient cycles and biodiversity in forests is scarce because the structural complexity of forests limits experimental control of driving factors. Alternatively, observational studies along gradients in abiotic conditions and biotic properties may elucidate the role of biodiversity for forest nutrient cycles. This thesis aims to improve the understanding of the functional importance of biodiversity for nutrient cycles in forests by analyzing water-bound fluxes of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) along gradients in biodiversity in three regions of Germany. The tested hypotheses included: (1) temperate forest canopies retain atmospheric N and retention increases with increasing plant diversity, (2) N release from organic layers increases with resource availability and population size of decomposers but N leaching decreases along a gradient in plant diversity, (3) P leaching from forest canopies increases with improved P supply from recalcitrant P fractions by a more diverse ectomycorrhizal fungal community. In the canopies of 27 forest stands from three regions, 16 % to 51 % of atmospheric N inputs were retained. Regional differences in N retention likely resulted from different in N availability in the soil. Canopy N retention was greater in coniferous than in beech forests, but this was not the case on loessderived soils. Nitrogen retention increased with increasing tree and shrub diversity which suggested complementary aboveground N uptake. The strength of the diversity effect on canopy N uptake differed among regions and between coniferous and deciduous forests. The N processing in the canopy directly coupled back to N leaching from organic layers in beech forests because throughfall-derived N flushed almost completely through the mull-type organic layers at the 12 studied beech sites. The N release from organic layers increased with stand basal area but was rather low (< 10 % of annual aboveground litterfall) because of a potentially high microbial N immobilization and intensive incorporation of litter into the mineral soil by bioturbation. Soil fauna biomass stimulated N mineralization through trophic interactions with primary producers and soil microorganisms. Both gross and net leaching from organic layers decreased with increasing plant diversity. Especially the diversity but not the cover of herbs increased N uptake. In contrast to N, P was leached from the canopy. Throughfall-derived P was also flushed quickly through the mull-type organic layers and leached P was predominantly immobilized in non directly plant-available P fractions in the mineral soil. Concentrations of plant-available phosphate in mineral soil solution were low and P leaching from the canopy increased with increasing concentrations of the moderately labile P fraction in soil and increasing ectomycorrhiza diversity while leaf C:P ratios decreased. This suggested that tree P supply benefited from complementary mining of diverse mycorrhizal communities for recalcitrant P. Canopy P leaching increased in years with pronounced spring drought which could lead to a deterioration of P supply by an increasing frequency of drought events. This thesis showed that N and P cycling in Central European forests is controlled by a complex interplay of abiotic site conditions with biological processes mediated by various groups of organisms, and that diverse plant communities contribute to tightening the N cycle in Central European forests and that diverse mycorrhizal communities improve the limited P availability. Maintaining forest biodiversity seems essential to ensure forest services in the light of environmental change.

Pitfalls of practicing cancer epidemiology in resource-limited settings: the case of survival and loss to follow-up after a diagnosis of Kaposi's sarcoma in five countries across sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND Survival after diagnosis is a fundamental concern in cancer epidemiology. In resource-rich settings, ambient clinical databases, municipal data and cancer registries make survival estimation in real-world populations relatively straightforward. In resource-poor settings, given the deficiencies in a variety of health-related data systems, it is less clear how well we can determine cancer survival from ambient data. METHODS We addressed this issue in sub-Saharan Africa for Kaposi's sarcoma (KS), a cancer for which incidence has exploded with the HIV epidemic but for which survival in the region may be changing with the recent advent of antiretroviral therapy (ART). From 33 primary care HIV Clinics in Kenya, Uganda, Malawi, Nigeria and Cameroon participating in the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) Consortia in 2009-2012, we identified 1328 adults with newly diagnosed KS. Patients were evaluated from KS diagnosis until death, transfer to another facility or database closure. RESULTS Nominally, 22% of patients were estimated to be dead by 2 years, but this estimate was clouded by 45% cumulative lost to follow-up with unknown vital status by 2 years. After adjustment for site and CD4 count, age <30 years and male sex were independently associated with becoming lost. CONCLUSIONS In this community-based sample of patients diagnosed with KS in sub-Saharan Africa, almost half became lost to follow-up by 2 years. This precluded accurate estimation of survival. Until we either generally strengthen data systems or implement cancer-specific enhancements (e.g., tracking of the lost) in the region, insights from cancer epidemiology will be limited.

Learning by Not Doing: Subsidy Disciplines in Services Trade

This paper explores the hitherto futile quest for developing disciplines on the trade- and investment-distorting effects of services subsidies. It sheds light on the multiplicity of factors that have weighed on the conduct of negotiations on subsidy disciplines in a services trade context at both the global and preferential levels, and advances a few thoughts on what the future may hold for the adoption of such disciplines. The analysis suggests that it is rather unlikely that WTO Members will any time soon reach a consensus on the matter of subsidy disciplines for services beyond those that currently (and timidly) obtain in the GATS and in many preferential trade agreements. The main reason behind such a conclusion stems from a marked rise in the value of preserving policy space in a trading environment characterized by considerably greater global market contestability than two decades ago.

Innovation and Development in the Age of Climate Change Adaptation: Open or Closed?

Change Adaptation: Open or Closed? Paper read at the Second African International Economic Law Network Conference, 7-8 March 2013, Wits School of Law, Johannesburg, South Africa. In a time of rapid convergence of technologies, goods, services, hardware, software, the traditional classifications that informed past treaties fail to remove legal uncertainty, or advance welfare and innovation. As a result, we turn our attention to the role and needs of the public domain at the interface of existing intellectual property rights and new modes of creation, production and distribution of goods and services. The concept of open culture would have it that knowledge should be spread freely and its growth should come from further developing existing works on the basis of sharing and collaboration without the shackles of intellectual property. Intellectual property clauses find their way into regional, multilateral, bilateral and free trade agreements more often than not, and can cause public discontent and incite unrest. Many of these intellectual property clauses raise the bar on protection beyond the clauses found in the WTO Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS). In this paper we address the question of the protection and development of the public domain in service of open innovation in accord with Article 15 of the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (ICESCR) in light of the Objectives (Article 7) and Principles (Article 8) set forth in TRIPS. Once areas of divergence and reinforcement between the intellectual property regime and human rights have been discussed, we will enter into options that allow for innovation and prosperity in the global south. We then conclude by discussing possible policy developments.