Asthma in young south Asian women living in the United Kingdom: the importance of early life

BACKGROUND: Studies of immigrants suggest that the environment during fetal life and duration of residence in the host country might influence the development of asthma. Little is known about the importance of the timing of the exposure in the host country and whether migrants might be especially vulnerable in certain age windows. OBJECTIVE: We compared the reported prevalence of asthma between young white and south Asian women in the United Kingdom, and investigated associations with country of birth and age at immigration. METHODS: A questionnaire on atopic disorders was posted to 2380 south Asian and 5796 white young mothers randomly sampled in Leicestershire. Data on ethnicity were also available from maternity records. Data were analysed using multivariable logistic regression and a propensity score approach. Results The reported prevalence of asthma was 10.9% in south Asian and 21.8% in white women. South Asian women who migrated to the United Kingdom aged 5 years or older reported less asthma (6.5%) than those born in the United Kingdom or who migrated before age 5 (16.0%), with an adjusted odds ratio of 0.38 [95% Confidence Interval 0.23-0.64, P<0.001]. For those who migrated aged over 5 years, the prevalence did not alter with the duration of residence in the United Kingdom. Current exposure to common environmental risk factors had relatively little effect on prevalence estimates. CONCLUSION: These data from a large population-based study support the hypothesis that early life environmental factors influence the risk of adult asthma.

Full publication of results initially presented in abstracts

BACKGROUND: Abstracts of presentations at scientific meetings are usually available only in conference proceedings. If subsequent full publication of abstract results is based on the magnitude or direction of study results, publication bias may result. Publication bias, in turn, creates problems for those conducting systematic reviews or relying on the published literature for evidence. OBJECTIVES: To determine the rate at which abstract results are subsequently published in full, and the time between meeting presentation and full publication. To assess the association between study characteristics and full publication. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library, Science Citation Index, reference lists, and author files. Date of most recent search: June 2003. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included all reports that examined the subsequent full publication rate of biomedical results initially presented as abstracts or in summary form. Follow-up of abstracts had to be at least two years. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two reviewers extracted data. We calculated the weighted mean full publication rate and time to full publication. Dichotomous variables were analyzed using relative risk and random effects models. We assessed time to publication using Kaplan-Meier survival analyses. MAIN RESULTS: Combining data from 79 reports (29,729 abstracts) resulted in a weighted mean full publication rate of 44.5% (95% confidence interval (CI) 43.9 to 45.1). Survival analyses resulted in an estimated publication rate at 9 years of 52.6% for all studies, 63.1% for randomized or controlled clinical trials, and 49.3% for other types of study designs.'Positive' results defined as any 'significant' result showed an association with full publication (RR = 1.30; CI 1.14 to 1.47), as did 'positive' results defined as a result favoring the experimental treatment (RR =1.17; CI 1.02 to 1.35), and 'positive' results emanating from randomized or controlled clinical trials (RR = 1.18, CI 1.07 to 1.30).Other factors associated with full publication include oral presentation (RR = 1.28; CI 1.09 to 1.49); acceptance for meeting presentation (RR = 1.78; CI 1.50 to 2.12); randomized trial study design (RR = 1.24; CI 1.14 to 1.36); and basic research (RR = 0.79; CI 0.70 to 0.89). Higher quality of abstracts describing randomized or controlled clinical trials was also associated with full publication (RR = 1.30, CI 1.00 to 1.71). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Only 63% of results from abstracts describing randomized or controlled clinical trials are published in full. 'Positive' results were more frequently published than not 'positive' results.

Prevalence and associated factors of viral hepatitis and transferrin elevations in 5036 patients admitted to the emergency room of a Swiss university hospital: cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND: The epidemiology of liver disease in patients admitted to emergency rooms is largely unknown. The current study aimed to measure the prevalence of viral hepatitis B and C infection and pathological laboratory values of liver disease in such a population, and to study factors associated with these measurements. METHODS: Cross-sectional study in patients admitted to the emergency room of a university hospital. No formal exclusion criteria. Determination of anti-HBs, anti-HCV, transferrin saturation, alanine aminotransferase, and obtaining answers from a study-specific questionnaire. RESULTS: The study included 5'036 patients, representing a 14.9% sample of the target population during the study period. Prevalence of anti-HBc and anti-HCV was 6.7% (95%CI 6.0% to 7.4%) and 2.7% (2.3% to 3.2%), respectively. Factors independently associated with positive anti-HBc were intravenous drug abuse (OR 18.3; 11.3 to 29.7), foreign country of birth (3.4; 2.6 to 4.4), non-white ethnicity (2.7; 1.9 to 3.8) and age > or =60 (2.0; 1.5 to 2.8). Positive anti-HCV was associated with intravenous drug abuse (78.9; 43.4 to 143.6), blood transfusion (1.7; 1.1 to 2.8) and abdominal pain (2.7; 1.5 to 4.8). 75% of all participants were not vaccinated against hepatitis B or did not know their vaccination status. Among anti-HCV positive patients only 49% knew about their infection and 51% reported regular alcohol consumption. Transferrin saturation was elevated in 3.3% and was associated with fatigue (prevalence ratio 1.9; 1.2 to 2.8). CONCLUSION: Emergency rooms should be considered as targets for public health programs that encourage vaccination, patient education and screening of high-risk patients for liver disease with subsequent referral for treatment if indicated.

Variable impact on mortality of AIDS-defining events diagnosed during combination antiretroviral therapy: not all AIDS-defining conditions are created equal

BACKGROUND: The extent to which mortality differs following individual acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)-defining events (ADEs) has not been assessed among patients initiating combination antiretroviral therapy. METHODS: We analyzed data from 31,620 patients with no prior ADEs who started combination antiretroviral therapy. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate mortality hazard ratios for each ADE that occurred in >50 patients, after stratification by cohort and adjustment for sex, HIV transmission group, number of antiretroviral drugs initiated, regimen, age, date of starting combination antiretroviral therapy, and CD4+ cell count and HIV RNA load at initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy. ADEs that occurred in <50 patients were grouped together to form a "rare ADEs" category. RESULTS: During a median follow-up period of 43 months (interquartile range, 19-70 months), 2880 ADEs were diagnosed in 2262 patients; 1146 patients died. The most common ADEs were esophageal candidiasis (in 360 patients), Pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia (320 patients), and Kaposi sarcoma (308 patients). The greatest mortality hazard ratio was associated with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (hazard ratio, 17.59; 95% confidence interval, 13.84-22.35) and progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (hazard ratio, 10.0; 95% confidence interval, 6.70-14.92). Three groups of ADEs were identified on the basis of the ranked hazard ratios with bootstrapped confidence intervals: severe (non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy [hazard ratio, 7.26; 95% confidence interval, 5.55-9.48]), moderate (cryptococcosis, cerebral toxoplasmosis, AIDS dementia complex, disseminated Mycobacterium avium complex, and rare ADEs [hazard ratio, 2.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.76-3.13]), and mild (all other ADEs [hazard ratio, 1.47; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-2.00]). CONCLUSIONS: In the combination antiretroviral therapy era, mortality rates subsequent to an ADE depend on the specific diagnosis. The proposed classification of ADEs may be useful in clinical end point trials, prognostic studies, and patient management.

Impact of definitions of loss to follow-up (LTFU) in antiretroviral therapy program evaluation: variation in the definition can have an appreciable impact on estimated proportions of LTFU

OBJECTIVE To examine the impact of different definitions of loss to follow-up (LTFU) on estimates of program outcomes in cohort studies of patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART). STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING We examined the impact of different definitions of LTFU using data from the International Epidemiological Databases to Evaluate AIDS-Southern Africa. The reference approach, Definition A, was compared with five alternative scenarios that differed in eligibility for analysis and the date assigned to the LTFU outcome. Kaplan-Meier estimates of LTFU were calculated up to 2 years after starting ART. RESULTS Estimated cumulative LTFU were 14% and 22% at 12 and 24 months, respectively, using the reference approach. Differences in the proportion LTFU were reported in the alternative scenarios with 12-month estimates of LTFU varying by up to 39% compared with Definition A. Differences were largest when the date assigned to the LTFU outcome was 6 months after the date of last contact and when the site-specific definition of LTFU was used. CONCLUSION Variation in the definitions of LTFU within cohort analyses can have an appreciable impact on estimated proportions of LTFU over 2 years of follow-up. Use of a standardized definition of LTFU is needed to accurately measure program effectiveness and comparability between programs.

A chrysophyte stomatocyst-based reconstruction of cold-season air temperature from Alpine Lake Silvaplana (AD 1500–2003); methods and concepts for quantitative inferences

Relatively little is known about past cold-season temperature variability in high-Alpine regions because of a lack of natural cold-season temperature proxies as well as under-representation of high-altitude sites in meteorological, early-instrumental and documentary data sources. Recent studies have shown that chrysophyte stomatocysts, or simply cysts (sub-fossil algal remains of Chrysophyceae and Synurophyceae), are among the very few natural proxies that can be used to reconstruct cold-season temperatures. This study presents a quantitative, high-resolution (5-year), cold-season (Oct–May) temperature reconstruction based on sub-fossil chrysophyte stomatocysts in the annually laminated (varved) sediments of high-Alpine Lake Silvaplana, SE Switzerland (1,789 m a.s.l.), since AD 1500. We first explore the method used to translate an ecologically meaningful variable based on a biological proxy into a simple climate variable. A transfer function was applied to reconstruct the ‘date of spring mixing’ from cyst assemblages. Next, statistical regression models were tested to convert the reconstructed ‘dates of spring mixing’ into cold-season surface air temperatures with associated errors. The strengths and weaknesses of this approach are thoroughly tested. One much-debated, basic assumption for reconstructions (‘stationarity’), which states that only the environmental variable of interest has influenced cyst assemblages and the influence of confounding variables is negligible over time, is addressed in detail. Our inferences show that past cold-season air-temperature fluctuations were substantial and larger than those of other temperature reconstructions for Europe and the Alpine region. Interestingly, in this study, recent cold-season temperatures only just exceed those of previous, multi-decadal warm phases since AD 1500. These findings highlight the importance of local studies to assess natural climate variability at high altitudes.

Interventions for the management of mandibular fractures

BACKGROUND Fractures of the mandible (lower jaw) are a common occurrence and usually related to interpersonal violence or road traffic accidents. Mandibular fractures may be treated using open (surgical) and closed (non-surgical) techniques. Fracture sites are immobilized with intermaxillary fixation (IMF) or other external or internal devices (i.e. plates and screws) to allow bone healing. Various techniques have been used, however uncertainty exists with respect to the specific indications for each approach. OBJECTIVES The objective of this review is to provide reliable evidence of the effects of any interventions either open (surgical) or closed (non-surgical) that can be used in the management of mandibular fractures, excluding the condyles, in adult patients. SEARCH METHODS We searched the following electronic databases: the Cochrane Oral Health Group's Trials Register (to 28 February 2013), the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (The Cochrane Library 2013, Issue 1), MEDLINE via OVID (1950 to 28 February 2013), EMBASE via OVID (1980 to 28 February 2013), metaRegister of Controlled Trials (to 7 April 2013), ClinicalTrials.gov (to 7 April 2013) and the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (to 7 April 2013). The reference lists of all trials identified were checked for further studies. There were no restrictions regarding language or date of publication. SELECTION CRITERIA Randomised controlled trials evaluating the management of mandibular fractures without condylar involvement. Any studies that compared different treatment approaches were included. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS At least two review authors independently assessed trial quality and extracted data. Results were to be expressed as random-effects models using mean differences for continuous outcomes and risk ratios for dichotomous outcomes with 95% confidence intervals. Heterogeneity was to be investigated to include both clinical and methodological factors. MAIN RESULTS Twelve studies, assessed as high (six) and unclear (six) risk of bias, comprising 689 participants (830 fractures), were included. Interventions examined different plate materials and morphology; use of one or two lag screws; microplate versus miniplate; early and delayed mobilization; eyelet wires versus Rapid IMF™ and the management of angle fractures with intraoral access alone or combined with a transbuccal approach. Patient-oriented outcomes were largely ignored and post-operative pain scores were inadequately reported. Unfortunately, only one or two trials with small sample sizes were conducted for each comparison and outcome. Our results and conclusions should therefore be interpreted with caution. We were able to pool the results for two comparisons assessing one outcome. Pooled data from two studies comparing two miniplates versus one miniplate revealed no significant difference in the risk of post-operative infection of surgical site (risk ratio (RR) 1.32, 95% CI 0.41 to 4.22, P = 0.64, I(2) = 0%). Similarly, no difference in post-operative infection between the use of two 3-dimensional (3D) and standard (2D) miniplates was determined (RR 1.26, 95% CI 0.19 to 8.13, P = 0.81, I(2) = 27%). The included studies involved a small number of participants with a low number of events. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS This review illustrates that there is currently inadequate evidence to support the effectiveness of a single approach in the management of mandibular fractures without condylar involvement. The lack of high quality evidence may be explained by clinical diversity, variability in assessment tools used and difficulty in grading outcomes with existing measurement tools. Until high level evidence is available, treatment decisions should continue to be based on the clinician's prior experience and the individual circumstances.

Incident malignancies among older long-term breast cancer survivors and an age-matched and site-matched nonbreast cancer comparison group over 10 years of follow-up

BACKGROUND Of the approximately 2.4 million American women with a history of breast cancer, 43% are aged ≥ 65 years and are at risk for developing subsequent malignancies. METHODS Women from 6 geographically diverse sites included 5-year breast cancer survivors (N = 1361) who were diagnosed between 1990 and 1994 at age ≥ 65 years with stage I or II disease and a comparison group of women without breast cancer (N = 1361). Women in the comparison group were age-matched and site-matched to breast cancer survivors on the date of breast cancer diagnosis. Follow-up began 5 years after the index date (survivor diagnosis date or comparison enrollment date) until death, disenrollment, or through 15 years after the index date. Data were collected from medical records and electronic sources (cancer registry, administrative, clinical, National Death Index). Analyses included descriptive statistics, crude incidence rates, and Cox proportional hazards regression models for estimating the risk of incident malignancy and were adjusted for death as a competing risk. RESULTS Survivors and women in the comparison group were similar: >82% were white, 55% had a Charlson Comorbidity Index of 0, and ≥ 73% had a body mass index ≤ 30 kg/m(2) . Of all 306 women (N = 160 in the survivor group, N = 146 in the comparison group) who developed a first incident malignancy during follow-up, the mean time to malignancy was similar (4.37 ± 2.81 years vs 4.03 ± 2.76 years, respectively; P = .28), whereas unadjusted incidence rates were slightly higher in survivors (1882 vs 1620 per 100,000 person years). The adjusted hazard of developing a first incident malignancy was slightly elevated in survivors in relation to women in the comparison group, but it was not statistically significant (hazard ratio, 1.17; 95% confidence interval, 0.94-1.47). CONCLUSIONS Older women who survived 5 years after an early stage breast cancer diagnosis were not at an elevated risk for developing subsequent incident malignancies up to 15 years after their breast cancer diagnosis.

Seasonality and magnitude of floods in Switzerland under future climate change

The flood seasonality of catchments in Switzerland is likely to change under climate change because of anticipated alterations of precipitation as well as snow accumulation and melt. Information on this change is crucial for flood protection policies, for example, or regional flood frequency analysis. We analysed projected changes in mean annual and maximum floods of a 22-year period for 189 catchments in Switzerland and two scenario periods in the 21st century based on an ensemble of climate scenarios. The flood seasonality was analysed with directional statistics that allow assessing both changes in the mean date a flood occurs as well as changes in the strength of the seasonality. We found that the simulated change in flood seasonality is a function of the change in flow regime type. If snow accumulation and melt is important in a catchment during the control period, then the anticipated change in flood seasonality is most pronounced. Decreasing summer precipitation in the scenarios additionally affects the flood seasonality (mean date of flood occurrence) and leads to a decreasing strength of seasonality, that is a higher temporal variability in most cases. The magnitudes of mean annual floods and more clearly of maximum floods (in a 22-year period) are expected to increase in the future because of changes in flood-generating processes and scaled extreme precipitation. Southern alpine catchments show a different signal, though: the simulated mean annual floods decrease in the far future, that is at the end of the 21st century. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Non-AIDS defining cancers in the D:A:D Study - time trends and predictors of survival: a cohort study

Background Non-AIDS defining cancers (NADC) are an important cause of morbidity and mortality in HIV-positive individuals. Using data from a large international cohort of HIV-positive individuals, we described the incidence of NADC from 2004–2010, and described subsequent mortality and predictors of these. Methods Individuals were followed from 1st January 2004/enrolment in study, until the earliest of a new NADC, 1st February 2010, death or six months after the patient’s last visit. Incidence rates were estimated for each year of follow-up, overall and stratified by gender, age and mode of HIV acquisition. Cumulative risk of mortality following NADC diagnosis was summarised using Kaplan-Meier methods, with follow-up for these analyses from the date of NADC diagnosis until the patient’s death, 1st February 2010 or 6 months after the patient’s last visit. Factors associated with mortality following NADC diagnosis were identified using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression. Results Over 176,775 person-years (PY), 880 (2.1%) patients developed a new NADC (incidence: 4.98/1000PY [95% confidence interval 4.65, 5.31]). Over a third of these patients (327, 37.2%) had died by 1st February 2010. Time trends for lung cancer, anal cancer and Hodgkin’s lymphoma were broadly consistent. Kaplan-Meier cumulative mortality estimates at 1, 3 and 5 years after NADC diagnosis were 28.2% [95% CI 25.1-31.2], 42.0% [38.2-45.8] and 47.3% [42.4-52.2], respectively. Significant predictors of poorer survival after diagnosis of NADC were lung cancer (compared to other cancer types), male gender, non-white ethnicity, and smoking status. Later year of diagnosis and higher CD4 count at NADC diagnosis were associated with improved survival. The incidence of NADC remained stable over the period 2004–2010 in this large observational cohort. Conclusions The prognosis after diagnosis of NADC, in particular lung cancer and disseminated cancer, is poor but has improved somewhat over time. Modifiable risk factors, such as smoking and low CD4 counts, were associated with mortality following a diagnosis of NADC.

The structural substrate of brain function: analysis of brain structural networks based on diffusion-weighted imaging

The brain is a complex neural network with a hierarchical organization and the mapping of its elements and connections is an important step towards the understanding of its function. Recent developments in diffusion-weighted imaging have provided the opportunity to reconstruct the whole-brain structural network in-vivo at a large scale level and to study the brain structural substrate in a framework that is close to the current understanding of brain function. However, methods to construct the connectome are still under development and they should be carefully evaluated. To this end, the first two studies included in my thesis aimed at improving the analytical tools specific to the methodology of brain structural networks. The first of these papers assessed the repeatability of the most common global and local network metrics used in literature to characterize the connectome, while in the second paper the validity of further metrics based on the concept of communicability was evaluated. Communicability is a broader measure of connectivity which accounts also for parallel and indirect connections. These additional paths may be important for reorganizational mechanisms in the presence of lesions as well as to enhance integration in the network. These studies showed good to excellent repeatability of global network metrics when the same methodological pipeline was applied, but more variability was detected when considering local network metrics or when using different thresholding strategies. In addition, communicability metrics have been found to add some insight into the integration properties of the network by detecting subsets of nodes that were highly interconnected or vulnerable to lesions. The other two studies used methods based on diffusion-weighted imaging to obtain knowledge concerning the relationship between functional and structural connectivity and about the etiology of schizophrenia. The third study integrated functional oscillations measured using electroencephalography (EEG) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) as well as diffusion-weighted imaging data. The multimodal approach that was applied revealed a positive relationship between individual fluctuations of the EEG alpha-frequency and diffusion properties of specific connections of two resting-state networks. Finally, in the fourth study diffusion-weighted imaging was used to probe for a relationship between the underlying white matter tissue structure and season of birth in schizophrenia patients. The results are in line with the neurodevelopmental hypothesis of early pathological mechanisms as the origin of schizophrenia. The different analytical approaches selected in these studies also provide arguments for discussion of the current limitations in the analysis of brain structural networks. To sum up, the first studies presented in this thesis illustrated the potential of brain structural network analysis to provide useful information on features of brain functional segregation and integration using reliable network metrics. In the other two studies alternative approaches were presented. The common discussion of the four studies enabled us to highlight the benefits and possibilities for the analysis of the connectome as well as some current limitations.

Reversal of gender differences in Educational Attainment – historical analysis of the West German Case

Background information: During the late 1970s and the early 1980s, West Germany witnessed a reversal of gender differences in educational attainment, as females began to outperform males. Purpose: The main objective was to analyse which processes were behind the reversal of gender differences in educational attainment after 1945. The theoretical reflections and empirical evidence presented for the US context by DiPrete and Buchmann (Gender-specific trends in the value of education and the emerging gender gap in college completion, Demography 43: 1–24, 2006) and Buchmann, DiPrete, and McDaniel (Gender inequalities in education, Annual Review of Sociology 34: 319–37, 2008) are considered and applied to the West German context. It is suggested that the reversal of gender differences is a consequence of the change in female educational decisions, which are mainly related to labour market opportunities and not, as sometimes assumed, a consequence of a ‘boy’s crisis’. Sample: Several databases, such as the German General Social Survey, the German Socio-economic Panel and the German Life History Study, are employed for the longitudinal analysis of the educational and occupational careers of birth cohorts born in the twentieth century. Design and methods: Changing patterns of eligibility for university studies are analysed for successive birth cohorts and gender. Binary logistic regressions are employed for the statistical modelling of the individuals’ achievement, educational decision and likelihood for social mobility – reporting average marginal effects (AME). Results: The empirical results suggest that women’s better school achievement being constant across cohorts does not contribute to the explanation of the reversal of gender differences in higher education attainment, but the increase of benefits for higher education explains the changing educational decisions of women regarding their transition to higher education. Conclusions: The outperformance of females compared with males in higher education might have been initialised by several social changes, including the expansion of public employment, the growing demand for highly qualified female workers in welfare and service areas, the increasing returns of women’s increased education and training, and the improved opportunities for combining family and work outside the home. The historical data show that, in terms of (married) women’s increased labour market opportunities and female life-cycle labour force participation, the raising rates of women’s enrolment in higher education were – among other reasons – partly explained by their rising access to service class positions across birth cohorts, and the rise of their educational returns in terms of wages and long-term employment.

The dog as a genetic model for immunoglobulin A (IgA) deficiency: identification of several breeds with low serum IgA concentrations

Immunoglobulin A (IgA) serves as the basis of the secretory immune system by protecting the lining of mucosal sites from pathogens. In both humans and dogs, IgA deficiency (IgAD) is associated with recurrent infections of mucosal sites and immune-mediated diseases. Low concentrations of serum IgA have previously been reported to occur in a number of dog breeds but no generally accepted cut-off value has been established for canine IgAD. The current study represents the largest screening to date of IgA in dogs in terms of both number of dogs (n = 1267) and number of breeds studied (n = 22). Serum IgA concentrations were quantified by using capture ELISA and were found to vary widely between breeds. We also found IgA to be positively correlated with age (p < 0.0001). Apart from the two breeds previously reported as predisposed to low IgA (Shar-Pei and German shepherd), we identified six additional breeds in which ≥10% of all tested dogs had very low (<0.07 g/l) IgA concentrations (Hovawart, Norwegian elkhound, Nova Scotia duck tolling retriever, Bullterrier, Golden retriever and Labrador retriever). In addition, we discovered low IgA concentrations to be significantly associated with canine atopic dermatitis (CAD, p < 0.0001) and pancreatic acinar atrophy (PAA, p = 0.04) in German shepherds.

„Extra locos sepulturae“ – Review about finds of newborns inside Roman settlements in present-day Switzerland

Finds of remains of newborns inside Roman settlements are a widespread phenomenon in the Imperium Romanum, including presentday Switzerland. Since the publication of the last review article (Berger 1993) numerous new finds have been made. Therefore it seems important to summarize archaeological and anthropological parameters again, and to re-assess them collectively. During a literature review a total of 262 cases were collected. Similarities as well as differences in the funerary practices become evident. A combination of inhumation, single deposit/grave, and absence of grave goods is the least common denominator in the funerary treatment of individuals who died around the time of birth. However, methods of classical physical anthropology are limited. Histological and biochemical methods are promising and may allow further statements in the future, e.g. with regard to the differentiation between live and still births. In order to evaluate possible correlations between archaeological and anthropological parameters, findings from settlements and cemeteries that are documented in situ as well as a sustainable theoretical framework are required.

Parameterization of temperature sensitivity of spring phenology and its application in explaining diverse phenological responses to temperature change

Existing evidence of plant phenological change to temperature increase demonstrates that the phenological responsiveness is greater at warmer locations and in early-season plant species. Explanations of these findings are scarce and not settled. Some studies suggest considering phenology as one functional trait within a plant's life history strategy. In this study, we adapt an existing phenological model to derive a generalized sensitivity in space (SpaceSens) model for calculating temperature sensitivity of spring plant phenophases across species and locations. The SpaceSens model have three parameters, including the temperature at the onset date of phenophases (Tp), base temperature threshold (Tb) and the length of period (L) used to calculate the mean temperature when performing regression analysis between phenology and temperature. A case study on first leaf date of 20 plant species from eastern China shows that the change of Tp and Tb among different species accounts for interspecific difference in temperature sensitivity. Moreover, lower Tp at lower latitude is the main reason why spring phenological responsiveness is greater there. These results suggest that spring phenophases of more responsive, early-season plants (especially in low latitude) will probably continue to diverge from the other late-season plants with temperatures warming in the future.