Reanalysis-driven climate simulation over CORDEX North America domain using the Canadian Regional Climate Model, version 5: model performance evaluation

The performance of reanalysis-driven Canadian Regional Climate Model, version 5 (CRCM5) in reproducing the present climate over the North American COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment domain for the 1989–2008 period has been assessed in comparison with several observation-based datasets. The model reproduces satisfactorily the near-surface temperature and precipitation characteristics over most part of North America. Coastal and mountainous zones remain problematic: a cold bias (2–6 °C) prevails over Rocky Mountains in summertime and all year-round over Mexico; winter precipitation in mountainous coastal regions is overestimated. The precipitation patterns related to the North American Monsoon are well reproduced, except on its northern limit. The spatial and temporal structure of the Great Plains Low-Level Jet is well reproduced by the model; however, the night-time precipitation maximum in the jet area is underestimated. The performance of CRCM5 was assessed against earlier CRCM versions and other RCMs. CRCM5 is shown to have been substantially improved compared to CRCM3 and CRCM4 in terms of seasonal mean statistics, and to be comparable to other modern RCMs.

Are implants more reliable than severely compromised endodontically treated teeth as abutments for zirconia-based FPDs? : In vitro results of long-term preclinical load simulation

OBJECTIVES The aim was to study the impact of the defect size of endodontically treated incisors compared to dental implants as abutments on the survival of zirconia two-unit anterior cantilever-fixed partial dentures (2U-FPDs) during 10-year simulation. MATERIALS AND METHODS Human maxillary central incisors were endodontically treated and divided into three groups (n = 24): I, access cavities rebuilt with composite core; II, teeth decoronated and restored with composite; and III as II supported by fiber posts. In group IV, implants with individual zirconia abutments were used. Specimens were restored with zirconia 2U-FPDs and exposed to two sequences of thermal cycling and mechanical loading. Statistics: Kaplan-Meier; log-rank tests. RESULTS During TCML in group I two tooth fractures and two debondings with chipping were found. Solely chippings occurred in groups II (2×), IV (2×), and III (1×). No significant different survival was found for the different abutments (p = 0.085) or FPDs (p = 0.526). Load capability differed significantly between groups I (176 N) and III (670 N), and III and IV (324 N) (p < 0.024). CONCLUSION Within the limitations of an in vitro study, it can be concluded that zirconia-framework 2U-FPDs on decoronated teeth with/without post showed comparable in vitro reliability as restorations on implants. The results indicated that restorations on teeth with only access cavity perform worse in survival and linear loading. CLINICAL RELEVANCE Even severe defects do not justify per se a replacement of this particular tooth by a dental implant from load capability point of view.

Corrected kriging update formulae for batch-sequential data assimilation

Recently, a lot of effort has been spent in the efficient computation of kriging predictors when observations are assimilated sequentially. In particular, kriging update formulae enabling significant computational savings were derived. Taking advantage of the previous kriging mean and variance computations helps avoiding a costly matrix inversion when adding one observation to the TeX already available ones. In addition to traditional update formulae taking into account a single new observation, Emery (2009) proposed formulae for the batch-sequential case, i.e. when TeX new observations are simultaneously assimilated. However, the kriging variance and covariance formulae given in Emery (2009) for the batch-sequential case are not correct. In this paper, we fix this issue and establish correct expressions for updated kriging variances and covariances when assimilating observations in parallel. An application in sequential conditional simulation finally shows that coupling update and residual substitution approaches may enable significant speed-ups.

An efficient simulation algorithm for the generalized von Mises distribution of order two

In this article we propose an exact efficient simulation algorithm for the generalized von Mises circular distribution of order two. It is an acceptance-rejection algorithm with a piecewise linear envelope based on the local extrema and the inflexion points of the generalized von Mises density of order two. We show that these points can be obtained from the roots of polynomials and degrees four and eight, which can be easily obtained by the methods of Ferrari and Weierstrass. A comparative study with the von Neumann acceptance-rejection, with the ratio-of-uniforms and with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms shows that this new method is generally the most efficient.

Evaluation of control and surveillance strategies for classical swine fever using a simulation model

Classical swine fever (CSF) outbreaks can cause enormous losses in naïve pig populations. How to best minimize the economic damage and number of culled animals caused by CSF is therefore an important research area. The baseline CSF control strategy in the European Union and Switzerland consists of culling all animals in infected herds, movement restrictions for animals, material and people within a given distance to the infected herd and epidemiological tracing of transmission contacts. Additional disease control measures such as pre-emptive culling or vaccination have been recommended based on the results from several simulation models; however, these models were parameterized for areas with high animal densities. The objective of this study was to explore whether pre-emptive culling and emergency vaccination should also be recommended in low- to moderate-density areas such as Switzerland. Additionally, we studied the influence of initial outbreak conditions on outbreak severity to improve the efficiency of disease prevention and surveillance. A spatial, stochastic, individual-animal-based simulation model using all registered Swiss pig premises in 2009 (n=9770) was implemented to quantify these relationships. The model simulates within-herd and between-herd transmission (direct and indirect contacts and local area spread). By varying the four parameters (a) control measures, (b) index herd type (breeding, fattening, weaning or mixed herd), (c) detection delay for secondary cases during an outbreak and (d) contact tracing probability, 112 distinct scenarios were simulated. To assess the impact of scenarios on outbreak severity, daily transmission rates were compared between scenarios. Compared with the baseline strategy (stamping out and movement restrictions) vaccination and pre-emptive culling neither reduced outbreak size nor duration. Outbreaks starting in a herd with weaning piglets or fattening pigs caused higher losses regarding to the number of culled premises and were longer lasting than those starting in the two other index herd types. Similarly, larger transmission rates were estimated for these index herd type outbreaks. A longer detection delay resulted in more culled premises and longer duration and better transmission tracing increased the number of short outbreaks. Based on the simulation results, baseline control strategies seem sufficient to control CSF in low-medium animal-dense areas. Early detection of outbreaks is crucial and risk-based surveillance should be focused on weaning piglet and fattening pig premises.

Computational and experimental methodology for site-matched investigations of the influence of mineral mass fraction and collagen orientation on the axial indentation modulus of lamellar bone

Relationships between mineralization, collagen orientation and indentation modulus were investigated in bone structural units from the mid-shaft of human femora using a site-matched design. Mineral mass fraction, collagen fibril angle and indentation moduli were measured in registered anatomical sites using backscattered electron imaging, polarized light microscopy and nano-indentation, respectively. Theoretical indentation moduli were calculated with a homogenization model from the quantified mineral densities and mean collagen fibril orientations. The average indentation moduli predicted based on local mineralization and collagen fibers arrangement were not significantly different from the average measured experimentally with nanoindentation (p=0.9). Surprisingly, no substantial correlation of the measured indentation moduli with tissue mineralization and/or collagen fiber arrangement was found. Nano-porosity, micro-damage, collagen cross-links, non-collagenous proteins or other parameters affect the indentation measurements. Additional testing/simulation methods need to be considered to properly understand the variability of indentation moduli, beyond the mineralization and collagen arrangement in bone structural units.

Forest dynamics during the transition from the Oldest Dryas to the Bølling–Allerød at Gerzensee—a simulation study

The aim of this study was to explore potential causes and mechanisms for the sequence and temporal pattern of tree taxa, specifically for the shift from shrub-tundra to birch–juniper woodland during and after the transition from the Oldest Dryas to the Bølling–Allerød in the region surrounding the lake Gerzensee in southern Central Europe. We tested the influence of climate, forest dynamics, community dynamics compared to other causes for delays. For this aim temperature reconstructed from a δ18O-record was used as input driving the multi-species forest-landscape model TreeMig. In a stepwise scenario analysis, population dynamics along with pollen production and transport were simulated and compared with pollen-influx data, according to scenarios of different δ18O/temperature sensitivities, different precipitation levels, with/without inter-specific competition, and with/without prescribed arrival of species. In the best-fitting scenarios, the effects on competitive relationships, pollen production, spatial forest structure, albedo, and surface roughness were examined in more detail. The appearance of most taxa in the data could only be explained by the coldest temperature scenario with a sensitivity of 0.3‰/°C, corresponding to an anomaly of − 15 °C. Once the taxa were present, their temporal pattern was shaped by competition. The later arrival of Pinus could not be explained even by the coldest temperatures, and its timing had to be prescribed by first observations in the pollen record. After the arrival into the simulation area, the expansion of Pinus was further influenced by competitors and minor climate oscillations. The rapid change in the simulated species composition went along with a drastic change in forest structure, leaf area, albedo, and surface roughness. Pollen increased only shortly after biomass. Based on our simulations, two alternative potential scenarios for the pollen pattern can be given: either very cold climate suppressed most species in the Oldest Dryas, or they were delayed by soil formation or migration. One taxon, Pinus, was delayed by migration and then additionally hindered by competition. Community dynamics affected the pattern in two ways: potentially by facilitation, i.e. by nitrogen-fixing pioneer species at the onset, whereas the later pattern was clearly shaped by competition. The simulated structural changes illustrate how vegetation on a larger scale could feed back to the climate system. For a better understanding, a more integrated simulation approach covering also the immigration from refugia would be necessary, for this combines climate-driven population dynamics, migration, individual pollen production and transport, soil dynamics, and physiology of individual pollen production.

Simulating Cortical Development as a Self Constructing Process: A Novel Multi-Scale Approach Combining Molecular and Physical Aspects

Current models of embryological development focus on intracellular processes such as gene expression and protein networks, rather than on the complex relationship between subcellular processes and the collective cellular organization these processes support. We have explored this collective behavior in the context of neocortical development, by modeling the expansion of a small number of progenitor cells into a laminated cortex with layer and cell type specific projections. The developmental process is steered by a formal language analogous to genomic instructions, and takes place in a physically realistic three-dimensional environment. A common genome inserted into individual cells control their individual behaviors, and thereby gives rise to collective developmental sequences in a biologically plausible manner. The simulation begins with a single progenitor cell containing the artificial genome. This progenitor then gives rise through a lineage of offspring to distinct populations of neuronal precursors that migrate to form the cortical laminae. The precursors differentiate by extending dendrites and axons, which reproduce the experimentally determined branching patterns of a number of different neuronal cell types observed in the cat visual cortex. This result is the first comprehensive demonstration of the principles of self-construction whereby the cortical architecture develops. In addition, our model makes several testable predictions concerning cell migration and branching mechanisms.

Dynamic high-resolution computer simulation of isotachophoretic enantiomer separation and zone stability

The development of electrophoretic computer models and their use for simulation of electrophoretic processes has increased significantly during the last few years. Recently, GENTRANS and SIMUL5 were extended with algorithms that describe chemical equilibria between solutes and a buffer additive in a fast 1:1 interaction process, an approach that enables simulation of the electrophoretic separation of enantiomers. For acidic cationic systems with sodium and H3 0(+) as leading and terminating components, respectively, acetic acid as counter component, charged weak bases as samples, and a neutral CD as chiral selector, the new codes were used to investigate the dynamics of isotachophoretic adjustment of enantiomers, enantiomer separation, boundaries between enantiomers and between an enantiomer and a buffer constituent of like charge, and zone stability. The impact of leader pH, selector concentration, free mobility of the weak base, mobilities of the formed complexes and complexation constants could thereby be elucidated. For selected examples with methadone enantiomers as analytes and (2-hydroxypropyl)-β-CD as selector, simulated zone patterns were found to compare well with those monitored experimentally in capillary setups with two conductivity detectors or an absorbance and a conductivity detector. Simulation represents an elegant way to provide insight into the formation of isotachophoretic boundaries and zone stability in presence of complexation equilibria in a hitherto inaccessible way.

Dynamic high-resolution computer simulation of electrophoretic enantiomer separations with neutral cyclodextrins as chiral selectors.

GENTRANS, a comprehensive one-dimensional dynamic simulator for electrophoretic separations and transport, was extended for handling electrokinetic chiral separations with a neutral ligand. The code can be employed to study the 1:1 interaction of monovalent weak and strong acids and bases with a single monovalent weak or strong acid or base additive, including a neutral cyclodextrin, under real experimental conditions. It is a tool to investigate the dynamics of chiral separations and to provide insight into the buffer systems used in chiral capillary zone electrophoresis (CZE) and chiral isotachophoresis. Analyte stacking across conductivity and buffer additive gradients, changes of additive concentration, buffer component concentration, pH, and conductivity across migrating sample zones and peaks, and the formation and migration of system peaks can thereby be investigated in a hitherto inaccessible way. For model systems with charged weak bases and neutral modified β-cyclodextrins at acidic pH, for which complexation constants, ionic mobilities, and mobilities of selector-analyte complexes have been determined by CZE, simulated and experimentally determined electropherograms and isotachopherograms are shown to be in good agreement. Simulation data reveal that CZE separations of cationic enantiomers performed in phosphate buffers at low pH occur behind a fast cationic migrating system peak that has a small impact on the buffer composition under which enantiomeric separation takes place.