Personalized Tuning of a Reinforcement Learning Control Algorithm for Glucose Regulation

Artificial pancreas is in the forefront of research towards the automatic insulin infusion for patients with type 1 diabetes. Due to the high inter- and intra-variability of the diabetic population, the need for personalized approaches has been raised. This study presents an adaptive, patient-specific control strategy for glucose regulation based on reinforcement learning and more specifically on the Actor-Critic (AC) learning approach. The control algorithm provides daily updates of the basal rate and insulin-to-carbohydrate (IC) ratio in order to optimize glucose regulation. A method for the automatic and personalized initialization of the control algorithm is designed based on the estimation of the transfer entropy (TE) between insulin and glucose signals. The algorithm has been evaluated in silico in adults, adolescents and children for 10 days. Three scenarios of initialization to i) zero values, ii) random values and iii) TE-based values have been comparatively assessed. The results have shown that when the TE-based initialization is used, the algorithm achieves faster learning with 98%, 90% and 73% in the A+B zones of the Control Variability Grid Analysis for adults, adolescents and children respectively after five days compared to 95%, 78%, 41% for random initialization and 93%, 88%, 41% for zero initial values. Furthermore, in the case of children, the daily Low Blood Glucose Index reduces much faster when the TE-based tuning is applied. The results imply that automatic and personalized tuning based on TE reduces the learning period and improves the overall performance of the AC algorithm.

Self-control in social decision making: A neurobiological perspective

Self-control is defined as the process in which thoughts, emotions, or prepotent responses are inhibited to efficiently enact a more focal goal. Self-control not only allows for more adaptive individual decision making but also promotes adaptive social decision making. In this chapter, we examine a burgeoning area of interdisciplinary research: the neuroscience of self-control in social decision making. We examine research on self-control in complex social contexts examined from a social neuroscience perspective. We review correlational evidence from neuroimaging studies and causal evidence from neuromodulation studies (i.e., brain stimulation). We specifically highlight research that shows that self-control involves the lateral prefrontal cortex (PFC) across a number of social domains and behaviors. Research has also begun to directly integrate nonsocial with social forms of self-control, showing that the basic neurobiological processes involved in stopping a motor response appear to be involved in social contexts that require self-control. Further, neural traits, such as baseline activation in the lateral PFC, can explain sources of individual differences in self-control capacity. We explore whether techniques that change brain functioning could target neural mechanisms related to self-control capacity to potentially enhance self-control in social behavior. Finally, we discuss several research questions ripe for examination. We broadly suggest that future research can now turn to exploring how neural traits and situational affordances interact to impact self-control in social decision making in order to continue to elucidate the processes that allow people to maintain and realize stable goals in a dynamic and often uncertain social environment.

Robust meta-analytic-predictive priors in clinical trials with historical control information.

Historical information is always relevant for clinical trial design. Additionally, if incorporated in the analysis of a new trial, historical data allow to reduce the number of subjects. This decreases costs and trial duration, facilitates recruitment, and may be more ethical. Yet, under prior-data conflict, a too optimistic use of historical data may be inappropriate. We address this challenge by deriving a Bayesian meta-analytic-predictive prior from historical data, which is then combined with the new data. This prospective approach is equivalent to a meta-analytic-combined analysis of historical and new data if parameters are exchangeable across trials. The prospective Bayesian version requires a good approximation of the meta-analytic-predictive prior, which is not available analytically. We propose two- or three-component mixtures of standard priors, which allow for good approximations and, for the one-parameter exponential family, straightforward posterior calculations. Moreover, since one of the mixture components is usually vague, mixture priors will often be heavy-tailed and therefore robust. Further robustness and a more rapid reaction to prior-data conflicts can be achieved by adding an extra weakly-informative mixture component. Use of historical prior information is particularly attractive for adaptive trials, as the randomization ratio can then be changed in case of prior-data conflict. Both frequentist operating characteristics and posterior summaries for various data scenarios show that these designs have desirable properties. We illustrate the methodology for a phase II proof-of-concept trial with historical controls from four studies. Robust meta-analytic-predictive priors alleviate prior-data conflicts ' they should encourage better and more frequent use of historical data in clinical trials.

Adaptive servo-ventilation as treatment of persistent central sleep apnea in post-acute ischemic stroke patients.

BACKGROUND Adaptive servo-ventilation (ASV) is a well-established treatment of central sleep apnea (CSA) related to congestive heart failure (CHF). Few studies have evaluated the effectiveness and adherence in patients with CSA of other etiologies, and even less is known about treatment of CSA in patients of post ischemic stroke. METHODS A single-centre retrospective analysis of ASV treatment for CSA in post-acute ischemic stroke patients without concomitant CHF was performed. Demographics, clinical data, sleep studies, ventilator settings, and adherence data were evaluated. RESULTS Out of 154 patients on ASV, 15 patients had CSA related to ischemic stroke and were started on ASV a median of 11 months after the acute cerebrovascular event. Thirteen out of the 15 patients were initially treated with continuous positive airway pressure (11/15) and bilevel positive airway pressure (2/15) therapy with unsatisfactory control of CSA. ASV significantly improved AHI (46.7 ± 24.3 vs 8.5 ± 12/h, P = 0.001) and reduced ESS (8.7 ± 5.7 vs 5.6 ± 2.5, P = 0.08) with a mean nightly use of ASV of 5.4 ± 2.4 h at 3 months after the initiation of treatment. Results were maintained at 6 months. CONCLUSION ASV was well tolerated and clinically effective in this group of patients with persistent CSA after ischemic stroke.

Messung dispositioneller Selbstkontroll-Kapazität: Eine deutsche Adaptation der Kurzform der Self-Control Scale (SCS-K-D)

Self-control is defined as the overriding or modification of one’s own response tendencies. Dispositional self control capacity is positively linked to various kinds of adaptive behavior. In order to economically measure self-control capacity in German-speaking samples, the brief version of the Self-Control Scale by Tangney, Baumeister and Boone (2004) was adapted into German. The translated entire Self-Control Scale consisting of 36 items was administered to university students (N = 316, study 1) and secondary school students (N = 335, study 2). The brief version consisting of 13 items, which were included in the entire scale, proved to be one-dimensional, reliable, and valid in terms of expected correlations with criteria. The comparison between the brief and the entire scale showed that the costs of the more economical brief measure with regard to reliability and validity are low.

Han Migration to Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region: Between State Schemes and Migrants’ Strategies

Post-1949 Han migration to Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in northwest China is a hotly debated issue among the Xinjiang scholars and within the region itself. While it is often discussed using statistical data as a large-scale historical process, I argue in this article for a more differentiated view of Han migrants. I demonstrate that in the popular discourse migrants are distinguished into numerous categories like Bingtuaners , Profit-Driven Migrants, Border Supporters, Qualified Personnel, Educated Youth, and others. Accordingly, I argue that Han migrants to Xinjiang should not be understood as a homogeneous category of participants in a singular state project intended to establish state control over the region. High return rates demonstrate that state attempts to make Han settle in Xinjiang are only partly successful, and that migrants follow their own strategies when situation permits, rather than fulfill the government’s plans. Individuals who have migrated since the 1980s are especially careful in their assessment of the economic incentives of settlement, and many decide to remain mobile.

Indigenous enteric eosinophils control DCs to initiate a primary Th2 immune response in vivo.

Eosinophils natively inhabit the small intestine, but a functional role for them there has remained elusive. Here, we show that eosinophil-deficient mice were protected from induction of Th2-mediated peanut food allergy and anaphylaxis, and Th2 priming was restored by reconstitution with il4(+/+) or il4(-/-) eosinophils. Eosinophils controlled CD103(+) dendritic cell (DC) activation and migration from the intestine to draining lymph nodes, events necessary for Th2 priming. Eosinophil activation in vitro and in vivo led to degranulation of eosinophil peroxidase, a granule protein whose enzymatic activity promoted DC activation in mice and humans in vitro, and intestinal and extraintestinal mouse DC activation and mobilization to lymph nodes in vivo. Further, eosinophil peroxidase enhanced responses to ovalbumin seen after immunization. Thus, eosinophils can be critical contributors to the intestinal immune system, and granule-mediated shaping of DC responses can promote both intestinal and extraintestinal adaptive immunity.

An adaptive Newton-method based on a dynamical systems approach

The traditional Newton method for solving nonlinear operator equations in Banach spaces is discussed within the context of the continuous Newton method. This setting makes it possible to interpret the Newton method as a discrete dynamical system and thereby to cast it in the framework of an adaptive step size control procedure. In so doing, our goal is to reduce the chaotic behavior of the original method without losing its quadratic convergence property close to the roots. The performance of the modified scheme is illustrated with various examples from algebraic and differential equations.

Addition of docetaxel, zoledronic acid, or both to first-line long-term hormone therapy in prostate cancer (STAMPEDE): survival results from an adaptive, multiarm, multistage, platform randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND Long-term hormone therapy has been the standard of care for advanced prostate cancer since the 1940s. STAMPEDE is a randomised controlled trial using a multiarm, multistage platform design. It recruits men with high-risk, locally advanced, metastatic or recurrent prostate cancer who are starting first-line long-term hormone therapy. We report primary survival results for three research comparisons testing the addition of zoledronic acid, docetaxel, or their combination to standard of care versus standard of care alone. METHODS Standard of care was hormone therapy for at least 2 years; radiotherapy was encouraged for men with N0M0 disease to November, 2011, then mandated; radiotherapy was optional for men with node-positive non-metastatic (N+M0) disease. Stratified randomisation (via minimisation) allocated men 2:1:1:1 to standard of care only (SOC-only; control), standard of care plus zoledronic acid (SOC + ZA), standard of care plus docetaxel (SOC + Doc), or standard of care with both zoledronic acid and docetaxel (SOC + ZA + Doc). Zoledronic acid (4 mg) was given for six 3-weekly cycles, then 4-weekly until 2 years, and docetaxel (75 mg/m(2)) for six 3-weekly cycles with prednisolone 10 mg daily. There was no blinding to treatment allocation. The primary outcome measure was overall survival. Pairwise comparisons of research versus control had 90% power at 2·5% one-sided α for hazard ratio (HR) 0·75, requiring roughly 400 control arm deaths. Statistical analyses were undertaken with standard log-rank-type methods for time-to-event data, with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs derived from adjusted Cox models. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00268476) and ControlledTrials.com (ISRCTN78818544). FINDINGS 2962 men were randomly assigned to four groups between Oct 5, 2005, and March 31, 2013. Median age was 65 years (IQR 60-71). 1817 (61%) men had M+ disease, 448 (15%) had N+/X M0, and 697 (24%) had N0M0. 165 (6%) men were previously treated with local therapy, and median prostate-specific antigen was 65 ng/mL (IQR 23-184). Median follow-up was 43 months (IQR 30-60). There were 415 deaths in the control group (347 [84%] prostate cancer). Median overall survival was 71 months (IQR 32 to not reached) for SOC-only, not reached (32 to not reached) for SOC + ZA (HR 0·94, 95% CI 0·79-1·11; p=0·450), 81 months (41 to not reached) for SOC + Doc (0·78, 0·66-0·93; p=0·006), and 76 months (39 to not reached) for SOC + ZA + Doc (0·82, 0·69-0·97; p=0·022). There was no evidence of heterogeneity in treatment effect (for any of the treatments) across prespecified subsets. Grade 3-5 adverse events were reported for 399 (32%) patients receiving SOC, 197 (32%) receiving SOC + ZA, 288 (52%) receiving SOC + Doc, and 269 (52%) receiving SOC + ZA + Doc. INTERPRETATION Zoledronic acid showed no evidence of survival improvement and should not be part of standard of care for this population. Docetaxel chemotherapy, given at the time of long-term hormone therapy initiation, showed evidence of improved survival accompanied by an increase in adverse events. Docetaxel treatment should become part of standard of care for adequately fit men commencing long-term hormone therapy. FUNDING Cancer Research UK, Medical Research Council, Novartis, Sanofi-Aventis, Pfizer, Janssen, Astellas, NIHR Clinical Research Network, Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research.

Lake-effect snow as the dominant control of mesic-forest distribution in Michigan, USA

1Recent studies demonstrated the sensitivity of northern forest ecosystems to changes in the amount and duration of snow cover at annual to decadal time scales. However, the consequences of snowfall variability remain uncertain for ecological variables operating at longer time scales, especially the distributions of forest communities. 2The Great Lakes region of North America offers a unique setting to examine the long-term effects of variable snowfall on forest communities. Lake-effect snow produces a three-fold gradient in annual snowfall over tens of kilometres, and dramatic edaphic variations occur among landform types resulting from Quaternary glaciations. We tested the hypothesis that these factors interact to control the distributions of mesic (dominated by Acer saccharum, Tsuga canadensis and Fagus grandifolia) and xeric forests (dominated by Pinus and Quercus spp.) in northern Lower Michigan. 3We compiled pre-European-settlement vegetation data and overlaid these data with records of climate, water balance and soil, onto Landtype Association polygons in a geographical information system. We then used multivariate adaptive regression splines to model the abundance of mesic vegetation in relation to environmental controls. 4Snowfall is the most predictive among five variables retained by our model, and it affects model performance 29% more than soil texture, the second most important variable. The abundance of mesic trees is high on fine-textured soils regardless of snowfall, but it increases with snowfall on coarse-textured substrates. Lake-effect snowfall also determines the species composition within mesic forests. The weighted importance of A. saccharum is significantly greater than of T. canadensis or F. grandifolia within the lake-effect snowbelt, whereas T. canadensis is more plentiful outside the snowbelt. These patterns are probably driven by the influence of snowfall on soil moisture, nutrient availability and fire return intervals. 5Our results imply that a key factor dictating the spatio-temporal patterns of forest communities in the vast region around the Great Lakes is how the lake-effect snowfall regime responds to global change. Snowfall reductions will probably cause a major decrease in the abundance of ecologically and economically important species, such as A. saccharum.