Sensitivity of the WRF model to PBL parametrisations and nesting techniques: evaluation of wind storms over complex terrain

Simulating surface wind over complex terrain is a challenge in regional climate modelling. Therefore, this study aims at identifying a set-up of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) model that minimises system- atic errors of surface winds in hindcast simulations. Major factors of the model configuration are tested to find a suitable set-up: the horizontal resolution, the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterisation scheme and the way the WRF is nested to the driving data set. Hence, a number of sensitivity simulations at a spatial resolution of 2 km are carried out and compared to observations. Given the importance of wind storms, the analysis is based on case studies of 24 historical wind storms that caused great economic damage in Switzerland. Each of these events is downscaled using eight different model set-ups, but sharing the same driving data set. The results show that the lack of representation of the unresolved topography leads to a general overestimation of wind speed in WRF. However, this bias can be substantially reduced by using a PBL scheme that explicitly considers the effects of non-resolved topography, which also improves the spatial structure of wind speed over Switzerland. The wind direction, although generally well reproduced, is not very sensitive to the PBL scheme. Further sensitivity tests include four types of nesting methods: nesting only at the boundaries of the outermost domain, analysis nudging, spectral nudging, and the so-called re-forecast method, where the simulation is frequently restarted. These simulations show that restricting the freedom of the model to develop large-scale disturbances slightly increases the temporal agreement with the observations, at the same time that it further reduces the overestimation of wind speed, especially for maximum wind peaks. The model performance is also evaluated in the outermost domains, where the resolution is coarser. The results demonstrate the important role of horizontal resolution, where the step from 6 to 2 km significantly improves model performance. In summary, the combination of a grid size of 2 km, the non-local PBL scheme modified to explicitly account for non-resolved orography, as well as analysis or spectral nudging, is a superior combination when dynamical downscaling is aimed at reproducing real wind fields.

The effect of enamel proteins on erosion.

Enamel proteins form a scaffold for growing hydroxyapatite crystals during enamel formation. They are then almost completely degraded during enamel maturation, resulting in a protein content of only 1% (w/v) in mature enamel. Nevertheless, this small amount of remaining proteins has important effects on the mechanical and structural properties of enamel and on the electrostatic properties of its surface. To analyze how enamel proteins affect tooth erosion, human enamel specimens were deproteinated. Surface microhardness (SMH), surface reflection intensity (SRI) and calcium release of both deproteinated and control specimens were monitored while continuously eroding them. The deproteination itself already reduced the initial SMH and SRI of the enamel significantly (p < 0.001 and p < 0.01). During the course of erosion, the progression of all three evaluated parameters differed significantly between the two groups (p < 0.001 for each). The deproteinated enamel lost its SMH and SRI faster, and released more calcium than the control group, but these differences were only significant at later stages of erosion, where not only surface softening but surface loss can be observed. We conclude that enamel proteins have a significant effect on erosion, protecting the enamel and slowing down the progression of erosion when irreversible surface loss starts to occur.

Modeled Interaction of Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko with the Solar Wind Inside 2 AU

Periodic comets move around the Sun on elliptical orbits. As such comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (hereafter 67P) spends a portion of time in the inner solar system where it is exposed to increased solar insolation. Therefore given the change in heliocentric distance, in case of 67P from aphelion at 5.68 AU to perihelion at ~1.24 AU, the comet’s activity—the production of neutral gas and dust—undergoes significant variations. As a consequence, during the inbound portion, the mass loading of the solar wind increases and extends to larger spatial scales. This paper investigates how this interaction changes the character of the plasma environment of the comet by means of multifluid MHD simulations. The multifluid MHD model is capable of separating the dynamics of the solar wind ions and the pick-up ions created through photoionization and electron impact ionization in the coma of the comet. We show how two of the major boundaries, the bow shock and the diamagnetic cavity, form and develop as the comet moves through the inner solar system. Likewise for 67P, although most likely shifted back in time with respect to perihelion passage, this process is reversed on the outbound portion of the orbit. The presented model herein is able to reproduce some of the key features previously only accessible to particle-based models that take full account of the ions’ gyration. The results shown herein are in decent agreement to these hybrid-type kinetic simulations.

Comparison of co-located independent ground-based middle atmospheric wind and temperature measurements with numerical weather prediction models

High-resolution, ground-based and independent observations including co-located wind radiometer, lidar stations, and infrasound instruments are used to evaluate the accuracy of general circulation models and data-constrained assimilation systems in the middle atmosphere at northern hemisphere midlatitudes. Systematic comparisons between observations, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analyses including the recent Integrated Forecast System cycles 38r1 and 38r2, the NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalyses, and the free-running climate Max Planck Institute–Earth System Model–Low Resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) are carried out in both temporal and spectral dom ains. We find that ECMWF and MERRA are broadly consistent with lidar and wind radiometer measurements up to ~40 km. For both temperature and horizontal wind components, deviations increase with altitude as the assimilated observations become sparser. Between 40 and 60 km altitude, the standard deviation of the mean difference exceeds 5 K for the temperature and 20 m/s for the zonal wind. The largest deviations are observed in winter when the variability from large-scale planetary waves dominates. Between lidar data and MPI-ESM-LR, there is an overall agreement in spectral amplitude down to 15–20 days. At shorter time scales, the variability is lacking in the model by ~10 dB. Infrasound observations indicate a general good agreement with ECWMF wind and temperature products. As such, this study demonstrates the potential of the infrastructure of the Atmospheric Dynamics Research Infrastructure in Europe project that integrates various measurements and provides a quantitative understanding of stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling for numerical weather prediction applications.

First continuous ground-based observations of long period oscillations in strato-/mesospheric wind profiles

Direct measurements of middle-atmospheric wind oscillations with periods between 5 and 50 days in the altitude range between mid-stratosphere (5 hPa) and upper mesosphere (0.02 hPa) have been made using a novel ground-based Doppler wind radiometer. The oscillations were not inferred from measurements of tracers, as the radiometer offers the unique capability of near-continuous horizontal wind profile measurements. Observations from four campaigns at high, mid and low latitudes with an average duration of 10 months have been analyzed. The dominant oscillation has mostly been found to lie in the extra-long period range (20–40 days), while the well-known atmospheric normal modes around 5, 10 and 16 days have also been observed. Comparisons of our results with ECMWF operational analysis model data revealed remarkably good agreement below 0.3 hPa but discrepancies above.

Impact of Sn/F Pre-Treatments on the Durability of Protective Coatings against Dentine Erosion/Abrasion.

For preventing erosive wear in dentine, coating with adhesives has been suggested as an alternative to fluoridation. However, clinical studies have revealed limited efficacy. As there is first evidence that Sn(2+) increases bond strength of the adhesive Clearfil SE (Kuraray), the aim of the present study was to investigate whether pre-treatment with different Sn(2+)/F(-) solutions improves the durability of Clearfil SE coatings. Dentine samples (eight groups, n=16/group) were freed of smear layer (0.5% citric acid, 10 s), treated (15 s) either with no solution (control), aminefluoride (AmF, 500 ppm F(-), pH 4.5), SnCl2 (800/1600 ppm Sn(2+); pH 1.5), SnCl2/AmF (500 ppm F(-), 800 ppm Sn(2+), pH 1.5/3.0/4.5), or Elmex Erosion Protection Rinse (EP, 500 ppm F-, 800 ppm Sn(2+), pH 4.5; GABA International), then rinsed with water (15 s) and individually covered with Clearfil SE. Subsequently the specimens were subjected to an erosion/abrasion protocol consisting of 1320 cycles of immersion in 0.5% citric acid (5 °C/55 °C; 2 min) and automated brushing (15 s, 200 g, NaF-toothpaste, RDA 80). As the coatings proved stable up to 1320 cycles, 60 modified cycles (brushing time 30 min/cycle) were added. Wear was measured profilometrically. After SnCl2/AmF, pH 4.5 or EP pre-treatment all except one coating survived. In the other groups, almost all coatings were lost and there was no significant difference to the control group. Pre-treatment with a Sn(2+)/F(-) solution at pH 4.5 seems able to improve the durability of adhesive coatings, rendering these an attractive option in preventing erosive wear in dentine.

Variability of daily winter wind speed distribution over Northern Europe during the past millennium in regional and global climate simulations

We analyse the variability of the probability distribution of daily wind speed in wintertime over Northern and Central Europe in a series of global and regional climate simulations covering the last centuries, and in reanalysis products covering approximately the last 60 years. The focus of the study lies on identifying the link of the variations in the wind speed distribution to the regional near-surface temperature, to the meridional temperature gradient and to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Our main result is that the link between the daily wind distribution and the regional climate drivers is strongly model dependent. The global models tend to behave similarly, although they show some discrepancies. The two regional models also tend to behave similarly to each other, but surprisingly the results derived from each regional model strongly deviates from the results derived from its driving global model. In addition, considering multi-centennial timescales, we find in two global simulations a long-term tendency for the probability distribution of daily wind speed to widen through the last centuries. The cause for this widening is likely the effect of the deforestation prescribed in these simulations. We conclude that no clear systematic relationship between the mean temperature, the temperature gradient and/or the North Atlantic Oscillation, with the daily wind speed statistics can be inferred from these simulations. The understand- ing of past and future changes in the distribution of wind speeds, and thus of wind speed extremes, will require a detailed analysis of the representation of the interaction between large-scale and small-scale dynamics.

Longitudinal Telomere Erosion in Lymphocyte Subsets of Patients with Atherosclerotic Peripheral Arterial Disease (PAD).

Telomere attrition has been linked to accelerate vascular ageing and seems to predispose for vascular disease. Our aim was to study the telomere length dynamics over time and in subsets of leukocytes from 15 patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD). The mean telomere length in subsets of leukocytes of patients with PAD was in the normal range of age-related telomere length values from healthy individuals. However, we found significant higher telomere attrition for T-cells from patients with PAD over a time period of six months when compared to the controls. The higher telomere loss in T-cells of patients with PAD most likely reflects a higher cell turnover of this leukocyte subset, which is involved in the process of chronic inflammatory disease underlying vascular disease. Further studies are needed to confirm these data and to assess how far this T-cell telomere attrition will correlate to the extent of the disease.