Multivariate modelling of responses to conditional items: New possibilities for latent class analysis

Questionnaire data may contain missing values because certain questions do not apply to all respondents. For instance, questions addressing particular attributes of a symptom, such as frequency, triggers or seasonality, are only applicable to those who have experienced the symptom, while for those who have not, responses to these items will be missing. This missing information does not fall into the category 'missing by design', rather the features of interest do not exist and cannot be measured regardless of survey design. Analysis of responses to such conditional items is therefore typically restricted to the subpopulation in which they apply. This article is concerned with joint multivariate modelling of responses to both unconditional and conditional items without restricting the analysis to this subpopulation. Such an approach is of interest when the distributions of both types of responses are thought to be determined by common parameters affecting the whole population. By integrating the conditional item structure into the model, inference can be based both on unconditional data from the entire population and on conditional data from subjects for whom they exist. This approach opens new possibilities for multivariate analysis of such data. We apply this approach to latent class modelling and provide an example using data on respiratory symptoms (wheeze and cough) in children. Conditional data structures such as that considered here are common in medical research settings and, although our focus is on latent class models, the approach can be applied to other multivariate models.

A multi-center retrospective analysis of treatment effects and quality of life in adult patients with cranial ependymomas

Long term quality of life data of adult patients harboring intracranial ependymomas have not been reported. The role of adjuvant radiation therapy in Grade II ependymomas is unclear and differs from study to study. We therefore sought to retrospectively analyze outcome and quality of life of adult patients that were operated on intracranial ependymomas at four different surgical centers in two countries. All patients were attempted to be contacted via telephone to assess quality of life (QoL) at the time of the telephone interview. The standard EORTC QoL Questionnaire C30 (EORTC QLQ-C30) and the EORTC QLQ-Brain Cancer Module (QLQ-BN20) were used. 64 adult patients with intracranial ependymomas were included in the study. The only factor that was associated with increased survival was age <55 years (p < 0.001). Supratentorial location was correlated with shorter progression free survival than infratentorial location (PFS; p = 0.048). In WHO Grade II tumors local irradiation did not lead to increased PFS (p = 0.888) or overall survival (p = 0.801). Even for incompletely resected Grade II tumors local irradiation did not lead to a benefit in PFS (p = 0.911). In a multivariate analysis of QoL, irradiated patients had significantly worse scores in the item "fatigue" (p = 0.037) than non-irradiated patients. Here we present QoL data of adult patients with intracranial ependymomas. Our data show that local radiation therapy may have long-term effects on patients' QoL. Since in the incompletely resected Grade II tumors local irradiation did not lead to a benefit in PFS in this retrospective study, prospective randomized studies are necessary. In addition to age, supratentorial tumor location is associated with a worse prognosis in adult ependymoma patients.

Oral melatonin reduces blood coagulation activity: a placebo-controlled study in healthy young men

Melatonin has previously been suggested to affect hemostatic function but studies on the issue are scant. We hypothesized that, in humans, oral administration of melatonin is associated with decreased plasma levels of procoagulant hemostatic measures compared with placebo medication and that plasma melatonin concentration shows an inverse association with procoagulant measures. Forty-six healthy men (mean age 25 +/- 4 yr) were randomized, single-blinded, to either 3 mg of oral melatonin (n = 25) or placebo medication (n = 21). One hour thereafter, levels of melatonin, fibrinogen, and D-dimer as well as activities of coagulation factor VII (FVII:C) and VIII (FVIII:C) were measured in plasma. Multivariate analysis of covariance and regression analysis controlled for age, body mass index, mean arterial blood pressure, heart rate, and norepinephrine plasma level. Subjects on melatonin had significantly lower mean levels of FVIII:C (81%, 95% CI 71-92 versus 103%, 95% CI 90-119; P = 0.018) and of fibrinogen (1.92 g/L, 95% CI 1.76-2.08 versus 2.26 g/L, 95% CI 2.09-2.43; P = 0.007) than those on placebo explaining 14 and 17% of the respective variance. In all subjects, increased plasma melatonin concentration independently predicted lower levels of FVIII:C (P = 0.037) and fibrinogen (P = 0.022) explaining 9 and 11% of the respective variance. Melatonin medication and plasma concentration were not significantly associated with FVII:C and D-dimer levels. A single dose of oral melatonin was associated with lower plasma levels of procoagulant factors 60 min later. There might be a dose-response relationship between the plasma concentration of melatonin and coagulation activity.

Graft coronary vasculopathy in cardiac transplantation--evaluation of risk factors by multivariate analysis

The development of coronary vasculopathy is the main determinant of long-term survival in cardiac transplantation. The identification of risk factors, therefore, seems necessary in order to identify possible treatment strategies. Ninety-five out of 397 patients, undergoing orthotopic cardiac transplantation from 10/1985 to 10/1992 were evaluated retrospectively on the basis of perioperative and postoperative variables including age, sex, diagnosis, previous operations, renal function, cholesterol levels, dosage of immunosuppressive drugs (cyclosporin A, azathioprine, steroids), incidence of rejection, treatment with calcium channel blockers at 3, 6, 12, and 18 months postoperatively. Coronary vasculopathy was assessed by annual angiography at 1 and 2 years postoperatively. After univariate analysis, data were evaluated by stepwise multiple logistic regression analysis. Coronary vasculopathy was assessed in 15 patients at 1 (16%), and in 23 patients (24%) at 2, years. On multivariate analysis, previous operations and the incidence of rejections were identified as significant risk factors (P < 0.05), whereas the underlying diagnosis had borderline significance (P = 0.058) for the development of graft coronary vasculopathy. In contrast, all other variables were not significant in our subset of patients investigated. We therefore conclude that the development of coronary vasculopathy in cardiac transplant patients mainly depends on the rejection process itself, aside from patient-dependent factors. Therapeutic measures, such as the administration of calcium channel blockers and regulation of lipid disorders, may therefore only reduce the progress of native atherosclerotic disease in the posttransplant setting.

Time-Series Panel Analysis (TSPA): Multivariate Modeling of Temporal Associations in Psychotherapy Process.

Objective: Processes occurring in the course of psychotherapy are characterized by the simple fact that they unfold in time and that the multiple factors engaged in change processes vary highly between individuals (idiographic phenomena). Previous research, however, has neglected the temporal perspective by its traditional focus on static phenomena, which were mainly assessed at the group level (nomothetic phenomena). To support a temporal approach, the authors introduce time-series panel analysis (TSPA), a statistical methodology explicitly focusing on the quantification of temporal, session-to-session aspects of change in psychotherapy. TSPA-models are initially built at the level of individuals and are subsequently aggregated at the group level, thus allowing the exploration of prototypical models. Method: TSPA is based on vector auto-regression (VAR), an extension of univariate auto-regression models to multivariate time-series data. The application of TSPA is demonstrated in a sample of 87 outpatient psychotherapy patients who were monitored by postsession questionnaires. Prototypical mechanisms of change were derived from the aggregation of individual multivariate models of psychotherapy process. In a 2nd step, the associations between mechanisms of change (TSPA) and pre- to postsymptom change were explored. Results: TSPA allowed a prototypical process pattern to be identified, where patient's alliance and self-efficacy were linked by a temporal feedback-loop. Furthermore, therapist's stability over time in both mastery and clarification interventions was positively associated with better outcomes. Conclusions: TSPA is a statistical tool that sheds new light on temporal mechanisms of change. Through this approach, clinicians may gain insight into prototypical patterns of change in psychotherapy.

An angiographic analysis of atherosclerosis progression in below-the-knee arteries after femoropopliteal angioplasty in claudicants

Purpose: To report an angiographic investigation of midterm atherosclerotic disease progression in below-the-knee (BTK) arteries of claudicants. Methods: Angiograms were performed in 58 consecutive claudicants (35 men; mean age 68.3±8.7 years) with endovascular treatment of femoropopliteal arteries in 58 limbs after a mean follow-up of 3.6±1.2 years. Angiograms were reviewed in consensus by 2 experienced readers blinded to clinical data. Progression of atherosclerosis in 4 BTK arterial segments (tibioperoneal trunk, anterior and posterior tibial arteries, and peroneal artery) was assessed according to the Bollinger score. The composite per calf Bollinger score represented the average of the 4 BTK arterial segment scores. The association of the Bollinger score with cardiovascular risk factors and gender was scrutinized. Results: A statistically significant increase in atherosclerotic burden was observed for the mean composite per calf Bollinger score (5.7±8.3 increase, 95% CI 3.5 to 7.9, p<0.0001), as well as for each single arterial segment analyzed. In multivariate linear regression analysis, diabetes mellitus was associated with a more pronounced progression of atherosclerotic burden in crural arteries (β: 5.6, p=0.035, 95% CI 0.398 to 10.806). Conclusion: Progression of infrapopliteal atherosclerotic lesions is common in claudicants during midterm follow-up. Presence of diabetes mellitus was confirmed as a major risk factor for more pronounced atherosclerotic BTK disease progression.

Exploring High-resolution Magic Angle Spinning (HR-MAS) NMR Spectroscopy for Metabonomic Analysis of Apples

Classical liquid-state high-resolution (HR) NMR spectroscopy has proved a powerful tool in the metabonomic analysis of liquid food samples like fruit juices. In this paper the application of (1)H high-resolution magic angle spinning (HR-MAS) NMR spectroscopy to apple tissue is presented probing its potential for metabonomic studies. The (1)H HR-MAS NMR spectra are discussed in terms of the chemical composition of apple tissue and compared to liquid-state NMR spectra of apple juice. Differences indicate that specific metabolic changes are induced by juice preparation. The feasibility of HR-MAS NMR-based multivariate analysis is demonstrated by a study distinguishing three different apple cultivars by principal component analysis (PCA). Preliminary results are shown from subsequent studies comparing three different cultivation methods by means of PCA and partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) of the HR-MAS NMR data. The compounds responsible for discriminating organically grown apples are discussed. Finally, an outlook of our ongoing work is given including a longitudinal study on apples.

Association between symptoms and quality of life in patients with schizophrenia: a pooled analysis of changes over time

Quality of life is an important outcome in the treatment of patients with schizophrenia. It has been suggested that patients' quality of life ratings (referred to as subjective quality of life, SQOL) might be too heavily influenced by symptomatology to be a valid independent outcome criterion. There has been only limited evidence on the association of symptom change and changes in SQOL over time. This study aimed to examine the association between changes in symptoms and in SQOL among patients with schizophrenia. A pooled data set was obtained from eight longitudinal studies that had used the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS) for measuring psychiatric symptoms and either the Lancashire Quality of Life Profile or the Manchester Short Assessment of Quality of Life for assessing SQOL. The sample comprised 886 patients with schizophrenia. After controlling for heterogeneity of findings across studies using linear mixed models, a reduction in psychiatric symptoms was associated with improvements in SQOL scores. In univariate analyses, changes in all BPRS subscales were associated with changes in SQOL scores. In a multivariate model, only associations between changes in the BPRS depression/anxiety and hostility subscales and changes in SQOL remained significant, with 5% and 0.5% of the variance in SQOL changes being attributable to changes in depression/anxiety and hostility respectively. All BPRS subscales together explained 8.5% of variance. The findings indicate that SQOL changes are influenced by symptom change, in particular in depression/anxiety. The level of influence is limited and may not compromise using SQOL as an independent outcome measure.

Brain areas involved in medial temporal lobe seizures: a principal component analysis of ictal SPECT data

The study describes brain areas involved in medial temporal lobe (mTL) seizures of 12 patients. All patients showed so-called oro-alimentary behavior within the first 20 s of clinical seizure manifestation characteristic of mTL seizures. Single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) images of regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) were acquired from the patients in ictal and interictal phases and from normal volunteers. Image analysis employed categorical comparisons with statistical parametric mapping and principal component analysis (PCA) to assess functional connectivity. PCA supplemented the findings of the categorical analysis by decomposing the covariance matrix containing images of patients and healthy subjects into distinct component images of independent variance, including areas not identified by the categorical analysis. Two principal components (PCs) discriminated the subject groups: patients with right or left mTL seizures and normal volunteers, indicating distinct neuronal networks implicated by the seizure. Both PCs were correlated with seizure duration, one positively and the other negatively, confirming their physiological significance. The independence of the two PCs yielded a clear clustering of subject groups. The local pattern within the temporal lobe describes critical relay nodes which are the counterpart of oro-alimentary behavior: (1) right mesial temporal zone and ipsilateral anterior insula in right mTL seizures, and (2) temporal poles on both sides that are densely interconnected by the anterior commissure. Regions remote from the temporal lobe may be related to seizure propagation and include positively and negatively loaded areas. These patterns, the covarying areas of the temporal pole and occipito-basal visual association cortices, for example, are related to known anatomic paths.

Prevalence and risk-factor analysis of Shiga toxigenic Escherichia coli in faecal samples of organically and conventionally farmed dairy cattle

Cattle are a natural reservoir for Shiga toxigenic Escherichia coli (STEC), however, no data are available on the prevalence and their possible association with organic or conventional farming practices. We have therefore studied the prevalence of STEC and specifically O157:H7 in Swiss dairy cattle by collecting faeces from approximately 500 cows from 60 farms with organic production (OP) and 60 farms with integrated (conventional) production (IP). IP farms were matched to OP farms and were comparable in terms of community, agricultural zone, and number of cows per farm. E. coli were grown overnight in an enrichment medium, followed by DNA isolation and PCR analysis using specific TaqMan assays. STEC were detected in all farms and O157:H7 were present in 25% of OP farms and 17% of IP farms. STEC were detected in 58% and O157:H7 were evidenced in 4.6% of individual faeces. Multivariate statistical analyses of over 250 parameters revealed several risk-factors for the presence of STEC and O157:H7. Risk-factors were mainly related to the potential of cross-contamination of feeds and cross-infection of cows, and age of the animals. In general, no significant differences between the two farm types concerning prevalence or risk for carrying STEC or O157:H7 were observed. Because the incidence of human disease caused by STEC in Switzerland is low, the risk that people to get infected appears to be small despite a relatively high prevalence in cattle. Nevertheless, control and prevention practices are indicated to avoid contamination of animal products.

Mid-term results in relation to age and analysis of predictive factors after fixation of acetabular fractures using the modified Stoppa approach.

INTRODUCTION Data concerning outcome after management of acetabular fractures by anterior approaches with focus on age and fractures associated with roof impaction, central dislocation and/or quadrilateral plate displacement are rare. METHODS Between October 2005 and April 2009 a series of 59 patients (mean age 57 years, range 13-91) with fractures involving the anterior column was treated using the modified Stoppa approach alone or for reduction of displaced iliac wing or low anterior column fractures in combination with the 1st window of the ilioinguinal approach or the modified Smith-Petersen approach, respectively. Surgical data, accuracy of reduction, clinical and radiographic outcome at mid-term and the need for endoprosthetic replacement in the postoperative course (defined as failure) were assessed; uni- and multivariate regression analysis were performed to identify independent predictive factors (e.g. age, nonanatomical reduction, acetabular roof impaction, central dislocation, quadrilateral plate displacement) for a failure. Outcome was assessed for all patients in general and in accordance to age in particular; patients were subdivided into two groups according to their age (group "<60yrs", group "≥60yrs"). RESULTS Forty-three of 59 patients (mean age 54yrs, 13-89) were available for evaluation. Of these, anatomic reduction was achieved in 72% of cases. Nonanatomical reduction was identified as being the only multivariate predictor for subsequent total hip replacement (Adjusted Hazard Ratio 23.5; p<0.01). A statistically significant higher rate of nonanatomical reduction was observed in the presence of acetabular roof impaction (p=0.01). In 16% of all patients, total hip replacement was performed and in 69% of patients with preserved hips the clinical results were excellent or good at a mean follow up of 35±10 months (range: 24-55). No statistical significant differences were observed between both groups. CONCLUSION Nonanatomical reconstruction of the articular surfaces is at risk for failure of joint-preserving management of acetabular fractures through an isolated or combined modified Stoppa approach resulting in total joint replacement at mid-term. In the elderly, joint-preserving surgery is worth considering as promising clinical and radiographic results might be obtained at mid-term.

Serial lactate and admission SOFA scores in trauma: an analysis of predictive value in 724 patients with and without traumatic brain injury

Objective Arterial lactate, base excess (BE), lactate clearance, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score have been shown to correlate with outcome in severely injured patients. The goal of the present study was to separately assess their predictive value in patients suffering from traumatic brain injury (TBI) as opposed to patients suffering from injuries not related to the brain. Materials and methods A total of 724 adult trauma patients with an Injury Severity Score (ISS) ≥ 16 were grouped into patients without TBI (non-TBI), patients with isolated TBI (isolated TBI), and patients with a combination of TBI and non-TBI injuries (combined injuries). The predictive value of the above parameters was then analyzed using both uni- and multivariate analyses. Results The mean age of the patients was 39 years (77 % males), with a mean ISS of 32 (range 16–75). Mortality ranged from 14 % (non-TBI) to 24 % (combined injuries). Admission and serial lactate/BE values were higher in non-survivors of all groups (all p < 0.01), but not in patients with isolated TBI. Admission SOFA scores were highest in non-survivors of all groups (p = 0.023); subsequently septic patients also showed elevated SOFA scores (p < 0.01), except those with isolated TBI. In this group, SOFA score was the only parameter which showed significant differences between survivors and non-survivors. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis revealed lactate to be the best overall predictor for increased mortality and further septic complications, irrespective of the leading injury. Conclusion Lactate showed the best performance in predicting sepsis or death in all trauma patients except those with isolated TBI, and the differences were greatest in patients with substantial bleeding. Following isolated TBI, SOFA score was the only parameter which could differentiate survivors from non-survivors on admission, although the SOFA score, too, was not an independent predictor of death following multivariate analysis.

The Application of Comorbidity Indices to Predict Early Postoperative Outcomes After Laparoscopic Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass: A Nationwide Comparative Analysis of Over 70,000 Cases

BACKGROUND: Patients undergoing laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (LRYGB) often have substantial comorbidities, which must be taken into account to appropriately assess expected postoperative outcomes. The Charlson/Deyo and Elixhauser indices are widely used comorbidity measures, both of which also have revised algorithms based on enhanced ICD-9-CM coding. It is currently unclear which of the existing comorbidity measures best predicts early postoperative outcomes following LRYGB. METHODS: Using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, patients 18 years or older undergoing LRYGB for obesity between 2001 and 2008 were identified. Comorbidities were assessed according to the original and enhanced Charlson/Deyo and Elixhauser indices. Using multivariate logistic regression, the following early postoperative outcomes were assessed: overall postoperative complications, length of hospital stay, and conversion to open surgery. Model performance for the four comorbidity indices was assessed and compared using C-statistics and the Akaike's information criterion (AIC). RESULTS: A total of 70,287 patients were included. Mean age was 43.1 years (SD, 10.8), 81.6 % were female and 60.3 % were White. Both the original and enhanced Elixhauser indices modestly outperformed the Charlson/Deyo in predicting the surgical outcomes. All four models had similar C-statistics, but the original Elixhauser index was associated with the smallest AIC for all of the surgical outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The original Elixhauser index is the best predictor of early postoperative outcomes in our cohort of patients undergoing LRYGB. However, differences between the Charlson/Deyo and Elixhauser indices are modest, and each of these indices provides clinically relevant insight for predicting early postoperative outcomes in this high-risk patient population.

Prognostic implications of coronary calcification in patients with obstructive coronary artery disease treated by percutaneous coronary intervention: a patient-level pooled analysis of 7 contemporary stent trials

OBJECTIVE To investigate the long-term prognostic implications of coronary calcification in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention for obstructive coronary artery disease. METHODS Patient-level data from 6296 patients enrolled in seven clinical drug-eluting stents trials were analysed to identify in angiographic images the presence of severe coronary calcification by an independent academic research organisation (Cardialysis, Rotterdam, The Netherlands). Clinical outcomes at 3-years follow-up including all-cause mortality, death-myocardial infarction (MI), and the composite end-point of all-cause death-MI-any revascularisation were compared between patients with and without severe calcification. RESULTS Severe calcification was detected in 20% of the studied population. Patients with severe lesion calcification were less likely to have undergone complete revascularisation (48% vs 55.6%, p<0.001) and had an increased mortality compared with those without severely calcified arteries (10.8% vs 4.4%, p<0.001). The event rate was also high in patients with severely calcified lesions for the combined end-point death-MI (22.9% vs 10.9%; p<0.001) and death-MI- any revascularisation (31.8% vs 22.4%; p<0.001). On multivariate Cox regression analysis, including the Syntax score, the presence of severe coronary calcification was an independent predictor of poor prognosis (HR: 1.33 95% CI 1.00 to 1.77, p=0.047 for death; 1.23, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.49, p=0.031 for death-MI, and 1.18, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.39, p=0.042 for death-MI- any revascularisation), but it was not associated with an increased risk of stent thrombosis. CONCLUSIONS Patients with severely calcified lesions have worse clinical outcomes compared to those without severe coronary calcification. Severe coronary calcification appears as an independent predictor of worse prognosis, and should be considered as a marker of advanced atherosclerosis.

Influencing factors on the length of stay in lumbar spine surgery: analysis of the German spine registry

INTRODUCTION Spinal disc herniation, lumbar spinal stenosis and spondylolisthesis are known to be leading causes of lumbar back pain. The cost of low back pain management and related operations are continuously increasing in the healthcare sector. There are many studies regarding complications after spine surgery but little is known about the factors predicting the length of stay in hospital. The purpose of this study was to identify these factors in lumbar spine surgery in order to adapt the postoperative treatment. MATERIAL AND METHODS The current study was carried out as a post hoc analysis on the basis of the German spine registry. Patients who underwent lumbar spine surgery by posterior surgical access and with posterior fusion and/or rigid stabilization, whereby procedures with dynamic stabilization were excluded. Patient characteristics were tested for association with length of stay (LOS) using bivariate and multivariate analyses. RESULTS A total of 356 patients met the inclusion criteria. The average age of all patients was 64.6 years and the mean LOS was 11.9 ± 6.0 days with a range of 2-44 days. Independent factors that were influencing LOS were increased age at the time of surgery, higher body mass index, male gender, blood transfusion of 1-2 erythrocyte concentrates and the presence of surgical complications. CONCLUSION Identification of predictive factors for prolonged LOS may allow for estimation of patient hospitalization time and for optimization of postoperative care. In individual cases this may result of a reduction in the LOS.