Parks of the future: Protected areas in Europe challenging regional and global change

Climate change, declines in biodiversity, increasing consumption of resources, urbanisation, urban sprawl and demographic change continue to challenge theregions of Europe. In response to these processes of regional and global change, there has been an unmistakeable boom in parks in Europe since the 1990s. Morethan a fifth of the continent is now protected using designations such as regionalnature parks, national parks, UNESCO Biosphere Reserves and World Heritagesites. The responsibilities of these areas are usually diverse and, in addition tonature protection and the conservation of cultural landscapes, increasingly involvethe promotion of sustainable development. In the 22 chapters of this volume, 28 authors from all over Europe analyse and comment on experiences of tackling the challenges of regional and global changein parks. They illustrate discussions with selected case studies and deal with keyissues of current protected area policy: How do parks address the pending challengesand what successes have they had thus far? What pioneering approaches are there in spatial planning and regional development? Which forms of park managementand governance are most promising? This informative and well-illustratedbook also considers which tasks will be assumed by parks in the future and whatroles parks may play in the debate concerning transformations required to promotesustainability in Europe.

Social differentiation of risk: perceptions of the future in drought-prone Central Niger

A snapshot of two Tuareg-dominated 'communes rurales' in the pastoral-agricultural transition zones of Maradi and Tahoua regions, Central Niger, shows that, despite the openly shared 'inevitable natural hazard' drought discourse, risk-taking action in response to drought-related dangers is sharply polarized according to social position. On the one hand the dominant Tuareg minority perceive drought not only as danger for their herds but also as opportunity to increase their political following through the channelling of drought relief benefits to their supporters. On the other hand, the majority of commune households, living on the brink of economic viability, cultivate social links with the dominant families in order to secure access to water, land and humanitarian aid; and household members are forced into more and more frequent and distant out-migration. Certain leaders, well-informed about national land policy and practice, focus their efforts for a better future on the consolidation of community land rights through the promotion of certain sedentarization and land privatization initiatives; however the resulting increased land pressure in key locations may unwittingly expose inhabitants to even worse drought-linked crises in the future. Bibliogr., notes, sum. in English and French

The future of osteoporosis treatment - a research update

Osteoporosis is characterised by a progressive loss of bone mass and microarchitecture which leads to increased fracture risk. Some of the drugs available to date have shown reductions in vertebral and non-vertebral fracture risk. However, in the ageing population of industrialised countries, still more fractures happen today than are avoided, which highlights the large medical need for new treatment options, models, and strategies. Recent insights into bone biology, have led to a better understanding of bone cell functions and crosstalk between osteoblasts, osteoclasts, and osteocytes at the molecular level. In the future, the armamentarium against osteoporotic fractures will likely be enriched by (1.) new bone anabolic substances such as antibodies directed against the endogenous inhibitors of bone formation sclerostin and dickkopf-1, PTH and PTHrp analogues, and possibly calcilytics; (2.) new inhibitors of bone resorption such as cathepsin K inhibitors which may suppress osteoclast function without impairing osteoclast viability and thus maintain bone formation by preserving the osteoclast-osteoblast crosstalk, and denosumab, an already widely available antibody against RANKL which inhibits osteoclast formation, function, and survival; and (3.) new therapeutic strategies based on an extended understanding of the pathophysiology of osteoporosis which may include sequential therapies with two or more bone active substances aimed at optimising the management of bone capital acquired during adolescence and maintained during adulthood in terms of both quantity and quality. Finally, one of the future challenges will be to identify those patients and patient populations expected to benefit the most from a given drug therapy or regimen. The WHO fracture risk assessment tool FRAX® and improved access to bone mineral density measurements by DXA will play a key role in this regard.

The potential effect of population development, smoking and antioxidant supplementation on the future epidemiology of age-related macular degeneration in Switzerland

BACKGROUND: Due to the predicted age shift of the population an increase in the number of patients with late AMD is expected. At present smoking represents the only modifiable risk factor. Supplementation of antioxidants in patients at risk is the sole effective pharmacological prevention. The aim of this study is to estimate the future epidemiological development of late AMD in Switzerland and to quantify the potential effects of smoking and antioxidants supplementation. METHODS: The modelling of the future development of late AMD cases in Switzerland was based on a meta-analysis of the published data on AMD-prevalence and on published Swiss population development scenarios until 2050. Three different scenarios were compared: low, mean and high. The late AMD cases caused by smoking were calculated using the "population attributable fraction" formula and data on the current smoking habits of the Swiss population. The number of potentially preventable cases was estimated using the data of the Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS). RESULTS: According to the mean population development scenario, late AMD cases in Switzerland will rise from 37 200 cases in 2005 to 52 500 cases in 2020 and to 93 200 cases in 2050. Using the "low" and the "high" scenarios the late AMD cases may range from 49 500 to 56 000 in 2020 and from 73 700 to 118 400 in 2050, respectively. Smoking is responsible for approximately 7 % of all late AMD cases, i. e., 2600 cases in 2005, 3800 cases in 2020, 6600 cases in 2050 ("mean scenario"). With future antioxidant supplementation to all patients at risk another 3100 cases would be preventable until 2020 and possibly 23 500 cases until 2050. CONCLUSION: Due to age shift in the population a 2.5-fold increase in late AMD cases until 2050 is expected, representing a socioeconomic challenge. Cessation of smoking and supplementation of antioxidants to all patients at risk has the potential to reduce this number. Unfortunately, public awareness is low. These data may support health-care providers and public opinion leaders when developing public education and prevention strategies.

Legal Implications of the Use of Export Taxes in Addressing Carbon Leakage: Competing Border Adjustment Measures

The prevailing uncertainties about the future of the post-Kyoto international legal framework for climate mitigation and adaptation increase the likelihood of unilateral trade interventions that aim to address climate policy concerns, as exemplified by the controversial European Union initiative to include the aviation industry in its emissions trading system. The emerging literature suggests that border carbon adjustment (BCA) measures imposed by importing countries would lead to substantial legal complications in relation to World Trade Organization law and hence to possible trade disputes. Lack of legal clarity on BCAs is exacerbated by potential counter or pre-emptive export restrictions that exporting countries might impose on carbon-intensive products. In this context, this paper investigates the interface between legal and welfare implications of competing unilateral BCA measures. It argues that carbon export taxes will be an inevitable part of the future climate change regime in the absence of a multilateral agreement. It also describes the channels through which competing BCAs may lead to trade conflicts and political complications as a result of their distributional and welfare impacts at the domestic and global levels.

Moral Opinion Polarization and the Erosion of Trust

Since Puntam's seminal work on declining levels of social capital, the question of how social trust is formed has reached unprecedented heights of critical enquiry. While most of the current research concentrates on ethnic diversity and income inequality as the main influences driving down generalized trust, we focus on opinion polarization as another potential impact factor on trust. In more detail, we investigate the extent to which polarization over morally charged issues such as homsexuality, abortion and euthanasia affects individuals' likelihood to trust others. We hypothesize that moral issues have a natural tendency to divide societies' opinions into opposing poles and, thus, to challenge social cohesion in modern civil societies. Based on hierarchical analyses of the fifth wave of the World Values Survey (WVS) — comprising a sample of 39 countries — our results reveal that individuals living in countries characterized by more opinion polarization tend to have less trust in other people.