Adapting agricultural land management to climate change: a regional multi-objective optimization approach

In several regions of the world, climate change is expected to have severe impacts on agricultural systems. Changes in land management are one way to adapt to future climatic conditions, including land-use changes and local adjustments of agricultural practices. In previous studies, options for adaptation have mostly been explored by testing alternative scenarios. Systematic explorations of land management possibilities using optimization approaches were so far mainly restricted to studies of land and resource management under constant climatic conditions. In this study, we bridge this gap and exploit the benefits of multi-objective regional optimization for identifying optimum land management adaptations to climate change. We design a multi-objective optimization routine that integrates a generic crop model and considers two climate scenarios for 2050 in a meso-scale catchment on the Swiss Central Plateau with already limited water resources. The results indicate that adaptation will be necessary in the study area to cope with a decrease in productivity by 0–10 %, an increase in soil loss by 25–35 %, and an increase in N-leaching by 30–45 %. Adaptation options identified here exhibit conflicts between productivity and environmental goals, but compromises are possible. Necessary management changes include (i) adjustments of crop shares, i.e. increasing the proportion of early harvested winter cereals at the expense of irrigated spring crops, (ii) widespread use of reduced tillage, (iii) allocation of irrigated areas to soils with low water-retention capacity at lower elevations, and (iv) conversion of some pre-alpine grasslands to croplands.

Linking soil properties and pre-Columbian agricultural strategies in the Bolivian lowlands: The case of raised fields in Exaltación

This paper aims to further our understanding of pre-Columbian agricultural systems in the Llanos de Moxos, Bolivia. Three different types of raised fields co-existing in the same site near the community of Exaltación, in north-western Beni, were studied. The morphology, texture and geochemistry of the soils of these fields and the surrounding area were analysed. Differences in field design have often been associated with the diversity of cultural practices. Our results suggest that in the study area differences in field shape, height and layout are primarily the result of an adaptation to the local edaphology. By using the technology of raised fields, pre-Columbian people were able to drain and cultivate soils with very different characteristics, making the land suitable for agriculture and possibly different crops. This study also shows that some fields in the Llanos de Moxos were built to prolong the presence of water, allowing an additional cultivation period in the dry season and/or in times of drought. Nevertheless, the nature of the highly weathered soils suggests that raised fields were not able to support large populations and their management required long fallow periods.

Soil Erosion and Conservation in Global Agriculture

About one-sixth of the world’s land area, that is, about one-third of the land used for agriculture, has been affected by soil degradation in the historic past. While most of this damage was caused by water and wind erosion, other forms of soil degradation are induced by biological, chemical, and physical processes. Since the 1950s, pressure on agricultural land has increased considerably owing to population growth and agricultural modernization. Small-scale farming is the largest occupation in the world, involving over 2.5 billion people, over 70% of whom live below the poverty line. Soil erosion, along with other environmental threats, particularly affects these farmers by diminishing yields that are primarily used for subsistence. Soil and water conservation measures have been developed and applied on many farms. Local and science-based innovations are available for most agroecological conditions and land management and farming types. Principles and measures developed for small-scale as well as modern agricultural systems have begun to show positive impacts in most regions of the world, particularly in wealthier states and modern systems. Much more emphasis still needs to be given to small-scale farming, which requires external support for investment in sustainable land management technologies as an indispensable and integral component of farm activities.

Enhancing Food Sovereignty and Food Security through the Revitalization of Indigenous Knowledge: Experiences from the Bolivian Andes

Endogenous development is defined as development that values primarily locally available resources and the way people organized themselves for that purpose. It is a dynamic and evolving concept that also embraces innovations and complementation from other than endogenous sources of knowledge; however, only as far as they are based on mutual respect and the recognition of cultural and socioeconomic self-determination of each of the parties involved. Experiences that have been systematized in the context of the BioAndes Program are demonstrating that enhancing food security and food sovereignty on the basis of endogenous development can be best achieved by applying a ‘biocultural’ perspective: This means to promote and support actions that are simultaneously valuing biological (fauna, flora, soils, or agrobiodiversity) and sociocultural resources (forms of social organization, local knowledge and skills, norms, and the related worldviews). In Bolivia, that is one of the Latin-American countries with the highest levels of poverty (79% of the rural population) and undernourishment (22% of the total population), the Program BioAndes promotes food sovereignty and food security by revitalizing the knowledge of Andean indigenous people and strengthening their livelihood strategies. This starts by recognizing that Andean people have developed complex strategies to constantly adapt to highly diverse and changing socioenvironmental conditions. These strategies are characterized by organizing the communities, land use and livelihoods along a vertical gradient of the available eco-climatic zones; the resulting agricultural systems are evolving around the own sociocultural values of reciprocity and mutual cooperation, giving thus access to an extensive variety of food, fiber and energy sources. As the influences of markets, competition or individualization are increasingly affecting the life in the communities, people became aware of the need to find a new balance between endogenous and exogenous forms of knowledge. In this context, BioAndes starts by recognizing the wealth and potentials of local practices and aims to integrate its actions into the ongoing endogenous processes of innovation and adaptation. In order to avoid external impositions and biases, the program intervenes on the basis of a dialogue between exogenous, mainly scientific, and indigenous forms of knowledge. The paper presents an analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of enhancing endogenous development through a dialogue between scientific and indigenous knowledge by specifically focusing on its effects on food sovereignty and food security in three ‘biocultural’ rural areas of the Bolivian highlands. The paper shows how the dialogue between different forms of knowledge evolved alongside the following project activities: 1) recuperation and renovation of local seeds and crop varieties (potato – Solanum spp., quinoa – Chenopodium quinoa, cañahua – Chenopodium pallidicaule); 2) support for the elaboration of community-based norms and regulations for governing access and distribution of non-timber forest products, such as medicinal, fodder, and construction plants; 3) revitalization of ethnoveterinary knowledge for sheep and llama breeding; 4) improvement of local knowledge about the transformation of food products (sheep-cheese, lacayote – Cucurbita sp. - jam, dried llama meat, fours of cañahua and other Andean crops). The implementation of these activities fostered the community-based livelihoods of indigenous people by complementing them with carefully and jointly designed innovations based on internal and external sources of knowledge and resources. Through this process, the epistemological and ontological basis that underlies local practices was made visible. On this basis, local and external actors started to jointly define a renewed concept of food security and food sovereignty that, while oriented in the notions of well being according to a collectively re-crafted world view, was incorporating external contributions as well. Enabling and hindering factors, actors and conditions of these processes are discussed in the paper.

Soils, agriculture and food security: The interplay between ecosystem functioning and human well-being

Healthy soils are critical to agriculture, and both are essential to enabling food security. Soil-related challenges include using soils and other natural resources sustainably, combating land and soil degradation, avoiding further reduction of soil-related ecosystem services, and ensuring that all agricultural land is managed sustainably. Agricultural challenges include improving the quantity and quality of agricultural outputs to satisfy rising human needs, also in a 2 degrees world; maintaining diversity in agricultural systems while supporting those farms with the highest potential for closing existing yield gaps; and providing a livelihood for about 2.6 billion mostly poor land users. The greatest needs and potentials lie in small-scale farming, although there as elsewhere, trade-offs must be negotiated within the nexus of water, energy, land and food, including the role of soil therein.

Sustainable investment in land in the Global South: What would it require from a coherence perspective? The case of Sierra Leone

Large scale acquisitions of land in the Global South have signifi-cantly increased since the millennium. It is often the case that foreign investors are involved in such acquisitions, which are commonly aimed at facilitating the export of commodities. These investments in land tend to transform conventional, rather small scale agricultural systems into large scale, industrial agricultural systems. While investment in ag-riculture in the Global South is much needed, large-scale investments in land often goes hand-in-hand with environmental and human rights re-lated challenges. As a consequence, lawyers need to address questions of sovereignty over natural resources (this paper focuses in particular on land resources), to peoples’ right to self-determination, to the responsi-bilities of the home and host states of the investors, including public-private relationships, and the role of international institutions who are involved, as well as relevant jurisprudence. This paper approaches these questions from the perspective of a theory on policy coherence for sus-tainable development.

Linking livelihood strategies with a regional level landscape mosaic to explore trade-offs between forest conservation and human wellbeing in a Madagascar biodiversity hotspot

The north-eastern escarpment of Madagascar contains the island’s last remaining large-scale humid forest massifs surrounded by diverse small-scale agricultural mosaics. There is high deforestation mainly caused by shifting cultivation practiced by local land users to produce upland rice for subsistence. Today, large protected areas restrict land users’ access to forests to collect wood and other forest products. Moreover, they are no more able to expand their cultivated land, which leads to shorter shifting cultivation cycles and decreasing plot sizes for irrigated rice and cash crop cultivation. Cash crop production of clove and vanilla is exposed to risks such as extreme inter-annual price fluctuations, pests and cyclones. In the absence of work opportunities, agricultural extension services and micro-finance schemes people are stuck in a poverty trap. New development strategies are needed to mitigate the trade-offs between forest conservation and human well-being. As landscape composition and livelihood strategies vary across the region, these strategies need to be spatially differentiated to avoid implementing generic solutions, which do not fit the local context. However, up to date, little is known about the spatial patterns of shifting cultivation and other land use systems at the regional level. This is mainly due to the high spatial and temporal dynamics inherent to shifting cultivation, which makes it difficult to monitor the dynamics of this land use system with remote sensing methods. Furthermore, knowledge about land users’ livelihood strategies and the risks and opportunities they face stems from very few local case studies. To overcome this challenge, firstly, we used remote sensing data and a landscape mosaic approach to delineate the main landscape types at the regional level. Secondly, we developed a land user typology based on socio-ecological data from household surveys in 45 villages spread throughout the region. Combining the land user typology with the landscape mosaic map allowed us to reveal spatial patterns of the interaction between landscapes and people and to better understand the trade-offs between forest conservation and local wellbeing. While shifting cultivation systems are being transformed into more intensive permanent agricultural systems in many countries around the globe, Madagascar seems to be an exception to this trend. Linking land cover information to human-environmental interactions over large areas is crucial to designing policies and to inform decision making for a more sustainable development of this resource-rich but poverty-prone context.

A conserved pattern in plant-mediated interactions between herbivores

Plant‐mediated interactions between herbivores are important determinants of community structure and plant performance in natural and agricultural systems. Current research suggests that the outcome of the interactions is determined by herbivore and plant identity, which may result in stochastic patterns that impede adaptive evolution and agricultural exploitation. However, few studies have systemically investigated specificity versus general patterns in a given plant system by varying the identity of all involved players. We investigated the influence of herbivore identity and plant genotype on the interaction between leaf‐chewing and root‐feeding herbivores in maize using a partial factorial design. We assessed the influence of leaf induction by oral secretions of six different chewing herbivores on the response of nine different maize genotypes and three different root feeders. Contrary to our expectations, we found a highly conserved pattern across all three dimensions of specificity: The majority of leaf herbivores elicited a negative behavioral response from the different root feeders in the large majority of tested plant genotypes. No facilitation was observed in any of the treatment combinations. However, the oral secretions of one leaf feeder and the responses of two maize genotypes did not elicit a response from a root‐feeding herbivore. Together, these results suggest that plant‐mediated interactions in the investigated system follow a general pattern, but that a degree of specificity is nevertheless present. Our study shows that within a given plant species, plant‐mediated interactions between herbivores of the same feeding guild can be stable. This stability opens up the possibility of adaptations by associated organisms and suggests that plant‐mediated interactions may contribute more strongly to evolutionary dynamics in terrestrial (agro)ecosystems than previously assumed.

Validation of the Swiss methane emission inventory by atmospheric observations and inverse modelling

Atmospheric inverse modelling has the potential to provide observation-based estimates of greenhouse gas emissions at the country scale, thereby allowing for an independent validation of national emission inventories. Here, we present a regional-scale inverse modelling study to quantify the emissions of methane (CH₄) from Switzerland, making use of the newly established CarboCount-CH measurement network and a high-resolution Lagrangian transport model. In our reference inversion, prior emissions were taken from the "bottom-up" Swiss Greenhouse Gas Inventory (SGHGI) as published by the Swiss Federal Office for the Environment in 2014 for the year 2012. Overall we estimate national CH₄ emissions to be 196 ± 18 Gg yr⁻¹ for the year 2013 (1σ uncertainty). This result is in close agreement with the recently revised SGHGI estimate of 206 ± 33 Gg yr⁻¹ as reported in 2015 for the year 2012. Results from sensitivity inversions using alternative prior emissions, uncertainty covariance settings, large-scale background mole fractions, two different inverse algorithms (Bayesian and extended Kalman filter), and two different transport models confirm the robustness and independent character of our estimate. According to the latest SGHGI estimate the main CH₄ source categories in Switzerland are agriculture (78 %), waste handling (15 %) and natural gas distribution and combustion (6 %). The spatial distribution and seasonal variability of our posterior emissions suggest an overestimation of agricultural CH₄ emissions by 10 to 20 % in the most recent SGHGI, which is likely due to an overestimation of emissions from manure handling. Urban areas do not appear as emission hotspots in our posterior results, suggesting that leakages from natural gas distribution are only a minor source of CH₄ in Switzerland. This is consistent with rather low emissions of 8.4 Gg yr⁻¹ reported by the SGHGI but inconsistent with the much higher value of 32 Gg yr⁻¹ implied by the EDGARv4.2 inventory for this sector. Increased CH₄ emissions (up to 30 % compared to the prior) were deduced for the north-eastern parts of Switzerland. This feature was common to most sensitivity inversions, which is a strong indicator that it is a real feature and not an artefact of the transport model and the inversion system. However, it was not possible to assign an unambiguous source process to the region. The observations of the CarboCount-CH network provided invaluable and independent information for the validation of the national bottom-up inventory. Similar systems need to be sustained to provide independent monitoring of future climate agreements.

Towards Self-Learning Radio-Based Localization Systems

Location-awareness indoors will be an inseparable feature of mobile services/applications in future wireless networks. Its current ubiquitous availability is still obstructed by technological challenges and privacy issues. We propose an innovative approach towards the concept of indoor positioning with main goal to develop a system that is self-learning and able to adapt to various radio propagation environments. The approach combines estimation of propagation conditions, subsequent appropriate channel modelling and optimisation feedback to the used positioning algorithm. Main advantages of the proposal are decreased system set-up effort, automatic re-calibration and increased precision.

Prediction of Cranio-Maxilofacial Surgical Planning using an Inverse Soft Tissue Modelling Approach

In cranio-maxillofacial surgery, the determination of a proper surgical plan is an important step to attain a desired aesthetic facial profile and a complete denture closure. In the present paper, we propose an efficient modeling approach to predict the surgical planning on the basis of the desired facial appearance and optimal occlusion. To evaluate the proposed planning approach, the predicted osteotomy plan of six clinical cases that underwent CMF surgery were compared to the real clinical plan. Thereafter, simulated soft-tissue outcomes were compared using the predicted and real clinical plan. This preliminary retrospective comparison of both osteotomy planning and facial outlook shows a good agreement and thereby demonstrates the potential application of the proposed approach in cranio-maxillofacial surgical planning prediction.