Partial reconstruction of the trajectories of a discretely observed branching diffusion with immigration and an application to inference

In this treatise we consider finite systems of branching particles where the particles move independently of each other according to d-dimensional diffusions. Particles are killed at a position dependent rate, leaving at their death position a random number of descendants according to a position dependent reproduction law. In addition particles immigrate at constant rate (one immigrant per immigration time). A process with above properties is called a branching diffusion withimmigration (BDI). In the first part we present the model in detail and discuss the properties of the BDI under our basic assumptions. In the second part we consider the problem of reconstruction of the trajectory of a BDI from discrete observations. We observe positions of the particles at discrete times; in particular we assume that we have no information about the pedigree of the particles. A natural question arises if we want to apply statistical procedures on the discrete observations: How can we find couples of particle positions which belong to the same particle? We give an easy to implement 'reconstruction scheme' which allows us to redraw or 'reconstruct' parts of the trajectory of the BDI with high accuracy. Moreover asymptotically the whole path can be reconstructed. Further we present simulations which show that our partial reconstruction rule is tractable in practice. In the third part we study how the partial reconstruction rule fits into statistical applications. As an extensive example we present a nonparametric estimator for the diffusion coefficient of a BDI where the particles move according to one-dimensional diffusions. This estimator is based on the Nadaraya-Watson estimator for the diffusion coefficient of one-dimensional diffusions and it uses the partial reconstruction rule developed in the second part above. We are able to prove a rate of convergence of this estimator and finally we present simulations which show that the estimator works well even if we leave our set of assumptions.

Development of a multi-species method by GC-coupling with inductively coupled plasma isotope dilution mass spectrometry for the simultaneous determination of alkylated lead, mercury and tin compounds

An accurate and sensitive species-specific GC-ICP-IDMS (gas chromatography inductively coupled plasma isotope dilution mass spectrometry) method for the determination of trimethyllead and a multi-species-specific GC-ICP-IDMS method for the simultaneous determination of trimethyllead, methylmercury, and butyltins in biological and environmental samples were developed. They allow the determination of corresponding elemental species down to the low ng g-1 range. The developed synthesis scheme for the formation of isotopically labeled Me3206Pb+ can be used for future production of this spike. The novel extraction technique, stir bar sorptive extraction (SBSE), was applied for the first time in connection with species-specific isotope dilution GC-ICP-MS for the determination of trimethyllead, methylmercury and butyltins. The results were compared with liquid-liquid extraction. The developed methods were validated by the analysis of certified reference materials. The liquid-liquid extraction GC-ICP-IDMS method was applied to seafood samples purchased from a supermarket. The methylated lead fraction in these samples, correlated to total lead, varied in a broad range of 0.01-7.6 %. On the contrary, the fraction of methylmercury is much higher, normally in the range of 80-98 %. The highest methylmercury content of up to 12 µg g-1 has been determined in shark samples, an animal which is at the end of the marine food chain, whereas in other seafood samples a MeHg+ content of less than 0.2 µg g-1 was found. Butyltin species could only be determined in samples, where anthropogenic contaminations must be assumed. This explains the observed broad variation of the butylated tin fraction in the range of <0.3-49 % in different seafood samples. Because all isotope-labelled spike compounds, except trimethyllead, are commercially available, the developed multi-species-specific GC-ICP-IDMS method has a high potential in future for routine analysis.