Quantitative risk analysis as a tool in process design

La Quantitative Risk Analysis costituisce un valido strumento per la determinazione del rischio associato ad un’installazione industriale e per la successiva attuazione di piani di emergenza. Tuttavia, la sua applicazione nella progettazione di un lay-out richiede la scelta di un criterio in grado di valutare quale sia la disposizione ottimale al fine di minimizzare il rischio. In tal senso, le numerose procedure esistenti, sebbene efficaci, risultano piuttosto faticose e time-consuming. Nel presente lavoro viene dunque proposto un criterio semplice ed oggettivo per comparare i risultati di QRA applicate a differenti designs. Valutando l’area racchiusa nelle curve iso-rischio, vengono confrontate dapprima le metodologie esistenti per lo studio dell’effetto domino, e successivamente, viene applicata al caso di serbatoi in pressione una procedura integrata di Quantitative Risk Domino Assessment. I risultati ottenuti dimostrano chiaramente come sia possibile ridurre notevolmente il rischio di un’attività industriale agendo sulla disposizione delle apparecchiature, con l’obiettivo di limitare gli effetti di possibili scenari accidentali.

L'analisi di rischio nel trasporto stradale di merci pericolose: due software a confronto

Confronto tra due software specifici per l'analisi di rischio nel trasporto stradale di merci pericolose (TRAT GIS 4.1 e QRAM 3.6) mediante applicazione a un caso di studio semplice e al caso reale di Casalecchio di Reno, comune della provincia di Bologna.

Thermal structure and dynamical modeling of a Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone

In the present work, a detailed analysis of a Mediterranean TLC occurred in January 2014 has been conducted. The author is not aware of other studies regarding this particular event at the publication of this thesis. In order to outline the cyclone evolution, observational data, including weather-stations data, satellite data, radar data and photographic evidence, were collected at first. After having identified the cyclone path and its general features, the GLOBO, BOLAM and MOLOCH NWP models, developed at ISAC-CNR (Bologna), were used to simulate the phenomenon. Particular attention was paid on the Mediterranean phase as well as on the Atlantic phase, since the cyclone showed a well defined precursor up to 3 days before the minimum formation in the Alboran Sea. The Mediterranean phase has been studied using different combinations of GLOBO, BOLAM and MOLOCH models, so as to evaluate the best model chain to simulate this kind of phenomena. The BOLAM and MOLOCH models showed the best performance, by adjusting the path erroneously deviated in the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and ECMWF operational models. The analysis of the cyclone thermal phase shown the presence of a deep-warm core structure in many cases, thus confirming the tropical-like nature of the system. Furthermore, the results showed high sensitivity to initial conditions in the whole lifetime of the cyclone, while the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) modification leads only to small changes in the Adriatic phase. The Atlantic phase has been studied using GLOBO and BOLAM model and with the aid of the same methodology already developed. After tracing the precursor, in the form of a low-pressure system, from the American East Coast to Spain, the thermal phase analysis was conducted. The parameters obtained showed evidence of a deep-cold core asymmetric structure during the whole Atlantic phase, while the first contact with the Mediterranean Sea caused a sudden transition to a shallow-warm core structure. The examination of Potential Vorticity (PV) 3-dimensional structure revealed the presence of a PV streamer that individually formed over Greenland and eventually interacted with the low-pressure system over the Spanish coast, favouring the first phase of the cyclone baroclinic intensification. Finally, the development of an automated system that tracks and studies the thermal phase of Mediterranean cyclones has been encouraged. This could lead to the forecast of potential tropical transition, against with a minimum computational investment.

Study of the performances of the H->ZZ*->4l analysis with the CMS phase-II upgrade

The performances of the H → ZZ* → 4l analysis are studied in the context of the High Luminosity upgrade of the LHC collider, with the CMS detector. The high luminosity (up to L = 5 × 10^34 cm−2s−1) of the accelerator poses very challenging experimental con- ditions. In particular, the number of overlapping events per bunch crossing will increase to 140. To cope with this difficult environment, the CMS detector will be upgraded in two stages: Phase-I and Phase-II. The tools used in the analysis are the CMS Full Simulation and the fast parametrized Delphes simulation. A validation of Delphes with respect to the Full Simulation is performed, using reference Phase-I detector samples. Delphes is then used to simulate the Phase-II detector response. The Phase-II configuration is compared with the Phase-I detector and the same Phase-I detector affected by aging processes, both modeled with the Full Simulation framework. Conclusions on these three scenarios are derived: the degradation in performances observed with the “aged” scenario shows that a major upgrade of the detector is mandatory. The specific upgrade configuration studied allows to keep the same performances as in Phase-I and, in the case of the four-muons channel, even to exceed them.

Qualitatitive and quantitative analysis of fish spoilage processes for development of new food monitoring systems

This study investigates the growth and metabolite production of microorganisms causing spoilage of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) fillets packaged under air and modified atmosphere (60 % CO2, 40 % O2). Samples were provided by two different retailers (A and B). Storage of packaged fillets occurred at 4 °C and 8 °C. Microbiological quality and metabolite production of cod fillets stored in MAP 4 °C, MAP 8 °C and air were monitored during 13 days, 7 days and 3 days of storage, respectively. Volatile compounds concentration in the headspace were quantified by Selective ion flow tube mass spectrometry and a correlation with microbiological spoilage was studied. The onset of volatile compounds detection was observed to be mostly around 7 log cfu/g of total psychrotrophic count. Trimethylamine and dimethyl sulfide were found to be the dominant volatiles in all of the tested storage conditions, nevertheless there was no close correlation between concentrations of each main VOC and percentages of rejection based on sensory evaluation. According to results it was concluded that they cannot be considered as only indicators of the quality of cod fillets stored in modified atmosphere and air.