Quantitative risk analysis as a tool in process design

La Quantitative Risk Analysis costituisce un valido strumento per la determinazione del rischio associato ad un’installazione industriale e per la successiva attuazione di piani di emergenza. Tuttavia, la sua applicazione nella progettazione di un lay-out richiede la scelta di un criterio in grado di valutare quale sia la disposizione ottimale al fine di minimizzare il rischio. In tal senso, le numerose procedure esistenti, sebbene efficaci, risultano piuttosto faticose e time-consuming. Nel presente lavoro viene dunque proposto un criterio semplice ed oggettivo per comparare i risultati di QRA applicate a differenti designs. Valutando l’area racchiusa nelle curve iso-rischio, vengono confrontate dapprima le metodologie esistenti per lo studio dell’effetto domino, e successivamente, viene applicata al caso di serbatoi in pressione una procedura integrata di Quantitative Risk Domino Assessment. I risultati ottenuti dimostrano chiaramente come sia possibile ridurre notevolmente il rischio di un’attività industriale agendo sulla disposizione delle apparecchiature, con l’obiettivo di limitare gli effetti di possibili scenari accidentali.

Sensitivity analysis of QRA to the occurrence frequencies of top-events: a case study

L’obiettivo del lavoro di tesi è stato quello di valutare la sensitività dell’analisi quantitativa del rischio (QRA, Quantitative Risk Analysis) alla frequenza di accadimento degli scenari di rilascio delle sostanze pericolose ovvero dei top-events. L’analisi di rischio è stata condotta applicando, ad uno stabilimento a rischio di incidente rilevante della Catalogna, i passaggi procedurali previsti dall’istruzione 14/2008 SIE vigente in quella regione. L’applicazione di questa procedura ha permesso di ottenere le curve isorischio, che collegano i punti attorno allo stabilimento aventi lo stesso valore del rischio locale. Le frequenze base dei top-events sono state prese innanzitutto dalla linea guida BEVI, e successivamente ai fini dell’analisi di sensitività, sono stati considerati sia i valori forniti da altre 3 autorevoli linee guida sia i valori ottenuti considerando incrementi delle frequenze base del 20%, 30%, 50%, 70%, 200%, 300%, 500%, 700%, 1000%, 2000%, 3000%, 4000%, 5000%. L’analisi delle conseguenze è stata condotta tramite i software EFFECTS ed ALOHA, mentre ai fini della ricomposizione del rischio è stato utilizzato il codice RISKCURVES. La sensitività alle frequenze dei top-events è stata valutata in termini di variazione del diametro massimo delle curve isorischio, con particolare attenzione a quella corrispondente a 10-6 ev/anno, che rappresenta il limite di accettabilità del rischio per la pianificazione territoriale nell’intorno dello stabilimento. E’ stato così dimostrato che l’estensione delle curve isorischio dipende in maniera molto forte dalla frequenza dei top-events e che l’utilizzo di dati di frequenza provenienti da linee guida diverse porta a curve isorischio di dimensioni molto differenti. E’ dunque confermato che la scelta delle frequenze degli scenari incidentali rappresenta, nella conduzione dell’analisi di rischio, un passaggio delicato e cruciale.

L'analisi di rischio nel trasporto stradale di merci pericolose: due software a confronto

Confronto tra due software specifici per l'analisi di rischio nel trasporto stradale di merci pericolose (TRAT GIS 4.1 e QRAM 3.6) mediante applicazione a un caso di studio semplice e al caso reale di Casalecchio di Reno, comune della provincia di Bologna.

A framework for the environmental risk assessment of offshore carbon storage in CCS systems

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) represents an interesting climate mitigation option, however, as for any other human activity, there is the impelling need to assess and manage the associated risks. This study specifically addresses the marine environmental risk posed by CO2 leakages associated to CCS subsea engineering system, meant as offshore pipelines and injection / plugged and abandoned wells. The aim of this thesis work is to start approaching the development of a complete and standardized practical procedure to perform a quantified environmental risk assessment for CCS, with reference to the specific activities mentioned above. Such an effort would be of extreme relevance not only for companies willing to implement CCS, as a methodological guidance, but also, by uniformizing the ERA procedure, to begin changing people’s perception about CCS, that happens to be often discredited due to the evident lack of comprehensive and systematic methods to assess the impacts on the marine environment. The backbone structure of the framework developed consists on the integration of ERA’s main steps and those belonging to the quantified risk assessment (QRA), in the aim of quantitatively characterizing risk and describing it as a combination of magnitude of the consequences and their frequency. The framework developed by this work is, however, at a high level, as not every single aspect has been dealt with in the required detail. Thus, several alternative options are presented to be considered for use depending on the situation. Further specific studies should address their accuracy and efficiency and solve the knowledge gaps emerged, in order to establish and validate a final and complete procedure. Regardless of the knowledge gaps and uncertainties, that surely need to be addressed, this preliminary framework already finds some relevance in on field applications, as a non-stringent guidance to perform CCS ERA, and it constitutes the foundation of the final framework.

Qualitatitive and quantitative analysis of fish spoilage processes for development of new food monitoring systems

This study investigates the growth and metabolite production of microorganisms causing spoilage of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) fillets packaged under air and modified atmosphere (60 % CO2, 40 % O2). Samples were provided by two different retailers (A and B). Storage of packaged fillets occurred at 4 °C and 8 °C. Microbiological quality and metabolite production of cod fillets stored in MAP 4 °C, MAP 8 °C and air were monitored during 13 days, 7 days and 3 days of storage, respectively. Volatile compounds concentration in the headspace were quantified by Selective ion flow tube mass spectrometry and a correlation with microbiological spoilage was studied. The onset of volatile compounds detection was observed to be mostly around 7 log cfu/g of total psychrotrophic count. Trimethylamine and dimethyl sulfide were found to be the dominant volatiles in all of the tested storage conditions, nevertheless there was no close correlation between concentrations of each main VOC and percentages of rejection based on sensory evaluation. According to results it was concluded that they cannot be considered as only indicators of the quality of cod fillets stored in modified atmosphere and air.  

Quantitative analysis of pre- and post-operative valvular annulus deformations following valvular insufficiency

Valvular insufficiency is a growingly common valvular heart disease that frequently is associated with regurgitation. Atrioventricular incompetency can lead to overall ventricular and atrial enlargement, volume overload, heart impairment and, if not treated, can culminate in heart failure. With the advances in technology and the increasing interest in devices that have lower post-operative burden on patients, transcatheter mitral and tricuspid valve repair systems are going through a phase of rapid development and growing use. In this work, we aimed to quantitatively assess the morphology of mitral and tricuspid annuli in patients who underwent transcatheter valve repair with MitraClip/TriClip, before and after the intervention, using three-dimensional transoesophageal echocardiography images, in order to evaluate the geometrical changes of the annulus following the intervention. For our purposes, firstly, we implemented a tool for the visualization and navigation of the volumetric data across the cardiac cycle. Then, in order to track the annulus over the cardiac cycle, we extracted five rotational slices from the volume data, selected two initial points on each slice, and tracked these points across the cardiac cycle using KLT algorithm. In a first stage we led a parameters optimization for the tracking method, and we studied the sensitivity of the KLT algorithm to the initialization points, that are manually chosen by the user. In a second stage, we analysed 10 subjects (5 for mitral regurgitation and 5 for tricuspid regurgitation), tracking their annulus before and after valve repairment. In conclusion, we found in all our 10 subjects that immediately after the intervention there is a shortening of the major diameters of the valves, mainly the shortest diameter, due to the clip application, that leads to a reduction of the perimeter and the area of the annulus.