7 resultados para weak informative prior

em AMS Tesi di Dottorato - Alm@DL - Università di Bologna


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Human brain is provided with a flexible audio-visual system, which interprets and guides responses to external events according to spatial alignment, temporal synchronization and effectiveness of unimodal signals. The aim of the present thesis was to explore the possibility that such a system might represent the neural correlate of sensory compensation after a damage to one sensory pathway. To this purpose, three experimental studies have been conducted, which addressed the immediate, short-term and long-term effects of audio-visual integration on patients with Visual Field Defect (VFD). Experiment 1 investigated whether the integration of stimuli from different modalities (cross-modal) and from the same modality (within-modal) have a different, immediate effect on localization behaviour. Patients had to localize modality-specific stimuli (visual or auditory), cross-modal stimulus pairs (visual-auditory) and within-modal stimulus pairs (visual-visual). Results showed that cross-modal stimuli evoked a greater improvement than within modal stimuli, consistent with a Bayesian explanation. Moreover, even when visual processing was impaired, cross-modal stimuli improved performance in an optimal fashion. These findings support the hypothesis that the improvement derived from multisensory integration is not attributable to simple target redundancy, and prove that optimal integration of cross-modal signals occurs in processing stage which are not consciously accessible. Experiment 2 examined the possibility to induce a short term improvement of localization performance without an explicit knowledge of visual stimulus. Patients with VFD and patients with neglect had to localize weak sounds before and after a brief exposure to a passive cross-modal stimulation, which comprised spatially disparate or spatially coincident audio-visual stimuli. After exposure to spatially disparate stimuli in the affected field, only patients with neglect exhibited a shifts of auditory localization toward the visual attractor (the so called Ventriloquism After-Effect). In contrast, after adaptation to spatially coincident stimuli, both neglect and hemianopic patients exhibited a significant improvement of auditory localization, proving the occurrence of After Effect for multisensory enhancement. These results suggest the presence of two distinct recalibration mechanisms, each mediated by a different neural route: a geniculo-striate circuit and a colliculus-extrastriate circuit respectively. Finally, Experiment 3 verified whether a systematic audio-visual stimulation could exert a long-lasting effect on patients’ oculomotor behaviour. Eye movements responses during a visual search task and a reading task were studied before and after visual (control) or audio-visual (experimental) training, in a group of twelve patients with VFD and twelve controls subjects. Results showed that prior to treatment, patients’ performance was significantly different from that of controls in relation to fixations and saccade parameters; after audiovisual training, all patients reported an improvement in ocular exploration characterized by fewer fixations and refixations, quicker and larger saccades, and reduced scanpath length. Similarly, reading parameters were significantly affected by the training, with respect to specific impairments observed in left and right hemisphere–damaged patients. The present findings provide evidence that a systematic audio-visual stimulation may encourage a more organized pattern of visual exploration with long lasting effects. In conclusion, results from these studies clearly demonstrate that the beneficial effects of audio-visual integration can be retained in absence of explicit processing of visual stimulus. Surprisingly, an improvement of spatial orienting can be obtained not only when a on-line response is required, but also after either a brief or a long adaptation to audio-visual stimulus pairs, so suggesting the maintenance of mechanisms subserving cross-modal perceptual learning after a damage to geniculo-striate pathway. The colliculus-extrastriate pathway, which is spared in patients with VFD, seems to play a pivotal role in this sensory compensation.

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In this work we aim to propose a new approach for preliminary epidemiological studies on Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMR) collected in many spatial regions. A preliminary study on SMRs aims to formulate hypotheses to be investigated via individual epidemiological studies that avoid bias carried on by aggregated analyses. Starting from collecting disease counts and calculating expected disease counts by means of reference population disease rates, in each area an SMR is derived as the MLE under the Poisson assumption on each observation. Such estimators have high standard errors in small areas, i.e. where the expected count is low either because of the low population underlying the area or the rarity of the disease under study. Disease mapping models and other techniques for screening disease rates among the map aiming to detect anomalies and possible high-risk areas have been proposed in literature according to the classic and the Bayesian paradigm. Our proposal is approaching this issue by a decision-oriented method, which focus on multiple testing control, without however leaving the preliminary study perspective that an analysis on SMR indicators is asked to. We implement the control of the FDR, a quantity largely used to address multiple comparisons problems in the eld of microarray data analysis but which is not usually employed in disease mapping. Controlling the FDR means providing an estimate of the FDR for a set of rejected null hypotheses. The small areas issue arises diculties in applying traditional methods for FDR estimation, that are usually based only on the p-values knowledge (Benjamini and Hochberg, 1995; Storey, 2003). Tests evaluated by a traditional p-value provide weak power in small areas, where the expected number of disease cases is small. Moreover tests cannot be assumed as independent when spatial correlation between SMRs is expected, neither they are identical distributed when population underlying the map is heterogeneous. The Bayesian paradigm oers a way to overcome the inappropriateness of p-values based methods. Another peculiarity of the present work is to propose a hierarchical full Bayesian model for FDR estimation in testing many null hypothesis of absence of risk.We will use concepts of Bayesian models for disease mapping, referring in particular to the Besag York and Mollié model (1991) often used in practice for its exible prior assumption on the risks distribution across regions. The borrowing of strength between prior and likelihood typical of a hierarchical Bayesian model takes the advantage of evaluating a singular test (i.e. a test in a singular area) by means of all observations in the map under study, rather than just by means of the singular observation. This allows to improve the power test in small areas and addressing more appropriately the spatial correlation issue that suggests that relative risks are closer in spatially contiguous regions. The proposed model aims to estimate the FDR by means of the MCMC estimated posterior probabilities b i's of the null hypothesis (absence of risk) for each area. An estimate of the expected FDR conditional on data (\FDR) can be calculated in any set of b i's relative to areas declared at high-risk (where thenull hypothesis is rejected) by averaging the b i's themselves. The\FDR can be used to provide an easy decision rule for selecting high-risk areas, i.e. selecting as many as possible areas such that the\FDR is non-lower than a prexed value; we call them\FDR based decision (or selection) rules. The sensitivity and specicity of such rule depend on the accuracy of the FDR estimate, the over-estimation of FDR causing a loss of power and the under-estimation of FDR producing a loss of specicity. Moreover, our model has the interesting feature of still being able to provide an estimate of relative risk values as in the Besag York and Mollié model (1991). A simulation study to evaluate the model performance in FDR estimation accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the decision rule, and goodness of estimation of relative risks, was set up. We chose a real map from which we generated several spatial scenarios whose counts of disease vary according to the spatial correlation degree, the size areas, the number of areas where the null hypothesis is true and the risk level in the latter areas. In summarizing simulation results we will always consider the FDR estimation in sets constituted by all b i's selected lower than a threshold t. We will show graphs of the\FDR and the true FDR (known by simulation) plotted against a threshold t to assess the FDR estimation. Varying the threshold we can learn which FDR values can be accurately estimated by the practitioner willing to apply the model (by the closeness between\FDR and true FDR). By plotting the calculated sensitivity and specicity (both known by simulation) vs the\FDR we can check the sensitivity and specicity of the corresponding\FDR based decision rules. For investigating the over-smoothing level of relative risk estimates we will compare box-plots of such estimates in high-risk areas (known by simulation), obtained by both our model and the classic Besag York Mollié model. All the summary tools are worked out for all simulated scenarios (in total 54 scenarios). Results show that FDR is well estimated (in the worst case we get an overestimation, hence a conservative FDR control) in small areas, low risk levels and spatially correlated risks scenarios, that are our primary aims. In such scenarios we have good estimates of the FDR for all values less or equal than 0.10. The sensitivity of\FDR based decision rules is generally low but specicity is high. In such scenario the use of\FDR = 0:05 or\FDR = 0:10 based selection rule can be suggested. In cases where the number of true alternative hypotheses (number of true high-risk areas) is small, also FDR = 0:15 values are well estimated, and \FDR = 0:15 based decision rules gains power maintaining an high specicity. On the other hand, in non-small areas and non-small risk level scenarios the FDR is under-estimated unless for very small values of it (much lower than 0.05); this resulting in a loss of specicity of a\FDR = 0:05 based decision rule. In such scenario\FDR = 0:05 or, even worse,\FDR = 0:1 based decision rules cannot be suggested because the true FDR is actually much higher. As regards the relative risk estimation, our model achieves almost the same results of the classic Besag York Molliè model. For this reason, our model is interesting for its ability to perform both the estimation of relative risk values and the FDR control, except for non-small areas and large risk level scenarios. A case of study is nally presented to show how the method can be used in epidemiology.

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This dissertation comprises three essays on the topic of industrial organization. The first essay considers how different intellectual property systems can affect the incentives to invest in R&D when innovation is cumulative. I introduce a distinction between plain and sophisticated technological knowledge, which plays a crucial role in determining how different appropriability rules affect the incentives to innovate. I argue that the positive effect of weak intellectual property regimes on the sharing of intermediate technological knowledge vanishes when technological knowledge is sophisticated, as is likely to be the case in many high tech industries. The second essay analyzes a two-sided market for news where advertisers may pay a media outlet to conceal negative information on the quality of their own product (paying positive to avoid negative) and/or to disclose negative information on the quality of their competitors products (paying positive to go negative). It is shown that whether advertisers have negative consequences on the accuracy of media reports or not, ultimately depends on the extent of correlation among advertisers products. The third essay considers the role of social learning in the diffusion of a new technology. A population of agents can choose between two risky technologies: an old one for which they know the expected outcome, and a new one for which they have only a prior. Different environments are confronted. In the benchmark case agents are isolated and can perform costly experiments to infer the quality of the new technology. In the other cases agents are settled in a network and can observe the outcomes of neighbors. We observe that in expectations the quality of the new technology may be overestimated when there is a network spread of information.

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Weak lensing experiments such as the future ESA-accepted mission Euclid aim to measure cosmological parameters with unprecedented accuracy. It is important to assess the precision that can be obtained in these measurements by applying analysis software on mock images that contain many sources of noise present in the real data. In this Thesis, we show a method to perform simulations of observations, that produce realistic images of the sky according to characteristics of the instrument and of the survey. We then use these images to test the performances of the Euclid mission. In particular, we concentrate on the precision of the photometric redshift measurements, which are key data to perform cosmic shear tomography. We calculate the fraction of the total observed sample that must be discarded to reach the required level of precision, that is equal to 0.05(1+z) for a galaxy with measured redshift z, with different ancillary ground-based observations. The results highlight the importance of u-band observations, especially to discriminate between low (z < 0.5) and high (z ~ 3) redshifts, and the need for good observing sites, with seeing FWHM < 1. arcsec. We then construct an optimal filter to detect galaxy clusters through photometric catalogues of galaxies, and we test it on the COSMOS field, obtaining 27 lensing-confirmed detections. Applying this algorithm on mock Euclid data, we verify the possibility to detect clusters with mass above 10^14.2 solar masses with a low rate of false detections.

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The aim of this thesis was to investigate the respective contribution of prior information and sensorimotor constraints to action understanding, and to estimate their consequences on the evolution of human social learning. Even though a huge amount of literature is dedicated to the study of action understanding and its role in social learning, these issues are still largely debated. Here, I critically describe two main perspectives. The first perspective interprets faithful social learning as an outcome of a fine-grained representation of others’ actions and intentions that requires sophisticated socio-cognitive skills. In contrast, the second perspective highlights the role of simpler decision heuristics, the recruitment of which is determined by individual and ecological constraints. The present thesis aims to show, through four experimental works, that these two contributions are not mutually exclusive. A first study investigates the role of the inferior frontal cortex (IFC), the anterior intraparietal area (AIP) and the primary somatosensory cortex (S1) in the recognition of other people’s actions, using a transcranial magnetic stimulation adaptation paradigm (TMSA). The second work studies whether, and how, higher-order and lower-order prior information (acquired from the probabilistic sampling of past events vs. derived from an estimation of biomechanical constraints of observed actions) interacts during the prediction of other people’s intentions. Using a single-pulse TMS procedure, the third study investigates whether the interaction between these two classes of priors modulates the motor system activity. The fourth study tests the extent to which behavioral and ecological constraints influence the emergence of faithful social learning strategies at a population level. The collected data contribute to elucidate how higher-order and lower-order prior expectations interact during action prediction, and clarify the neural mechanisms underlying such interaction. Finally, these works provide/open promising perspectives for a better understanding of social learning, with possible extensions to animal models.

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Negli ultimi vent’anni sono state proposte al livello internazionale alcune analisi dei problemi per le scienze nella scuola e diverse strategie per l’innovazione didattica. Molte ricerche hanno fatto riferimento a una nuova nozione di literacy scientifica, quale sapere fondamentale dell’educazione, indipendente dalle scelte professionali successive alla scuola. L’ipotesi di partenza di questa ricerca sostiene che alcune di queste analisi e l’idea di una nuova literacy scientifica di tipo non-vocazionale mostrino notevoli limiti quando rapportate al contesto italiano. Le specificità di quest’ultimo sono state affrontate, innanzitutto, da un punto di vista comparativo, discutendo alcuni documenti internazionali sull’insegnamento delle scienze. Questo confronto ha messo in luce la difficoltà di ottenere un insieme di evidenze chiare e definitive sui problemi dell’educazione scientifica discussi da questi documenti, in particolare per quanto riguarda i dati sulla crisi delle vocazioni scientifiche e sull’attitudine degli studenti verso le scienze. Le raccomandazioni educative e alcuni progetti curricolari internazionali trovano degli ostacoli decisivi nella scuola superiore italiana anche a causa di specificità istituzionali, come particolari principi di selezione e l’articolazione dei vari indirizzi formativi. Il presente lavoro si è basato soprattutto su una ricostruzione storico-pedagogica del curricolo di fisica, attraverso l’analisi delle linee guida nazionali, dei programmi di studio e di alcuni rappresentativi manuali degli ultimi decenni. Questo esame del curricolo “programmato” ha messo in luce, primo, il carattere accademico della fisica liceale e la sua debole rielaborazione culturale e didattica, secondo, l’impatto di temi e problemi internazionali sui materiali didattici. Tale impatto ha prodotto dei cambiamenti sul piano delle finalità educative e degli strumenti di apprendimento incorporati nei manuali. Nonostante l’evoluzione di queste caratteristiche del curricolo, tuttavia, l’analisi delle conoscenze storico-filosofiche utilizzate dai manuali ha messo in luce la scarsa contestualizzazione culturale della fisica quale uno degli ostacoli principali per l’insegnamento di una scienza più rilevante e formativa.

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1.Microfinance Industry – Context of Analysis. This paper is an introduction to the microfinance industry. It serves as a context of analysis, for the empirical settings and basis for building the theoretical argument for the thesis. 2.Women in Microfinance Institutions: The Road to Poverty Reduction and Gender Equality? One of the unique aspects of microfinance institutions is their focus on outreach, i.e. their ability to reach the poor. This paper explores whether the presence of women in microfinance institutions is associated with improved outreach. Building on prior research that shows that women tend to improve financial performance and social responsibility, we examine an original dataset of 226 microfinance institutions. The empirical results suggest that the presence of a female CEO, female managers and female loan officers is directly related to improved outreach, while the presence of women board members is not. 3. Women in Microfinance Institutions: Is There a Trade-Off Between Outreach and Sustainability? Abstract This paper’s contribution to the understanding of microfinance is two-fold. First, while it has been shown that female CEOs in MFIs increase financial performance, it will be argued that female managers, female loan officers and female board members will do the same. Secondly, having previously shown that having a female presence in management in MFIs improves social performance the outreach, it will be argued that having females in the MFIs’ management will not lead to a trade-off between outreach and sustainability. These findings are based on an original data set of 226 MFIs. Statistical analysis demonstrates that a weak relationship between female managers and female loan officers vis-à-vis financial performance, but female board members do not. The trade-off between outreach and sustainability can be avoided with the appointment of females to the MFIs’ management positions, but the same cannot be concluded for female board members.