Numerical simulations of magma chamber dynamics at Campi Flegrei, and associated seismicity, deformation and gravity changes

Understanding the complex relationships between quantities measured by volcanic monitoring network and shallow magma processes is a crucial headway for the comprehension of volcanic processes and a more realistic evaluation of the associated hazard. This question is very relevant at Campi Flegrei, a volcanic quiescent caldera immediately north-west of Napoli (Italy). The system activity shows a high fumarole release and periodic ground slow movement (bradyseism) with high seismicity. This activity, with the high people density and the presence of military and industrial buildings, makes Campi Flegrei one of the areas with higher volcanic hazard in the world. In such a context my thesis has been focused on magma dynamics due to the refilling of shallow magma chambers, and on the geophysical signals detectable by seismic, deformative and gravimetric monitoring networks that are associated with this phenomenologies. Indeed, the refilling of magma chambers is a process frequently occurring just before a volcanic eruption; therefore, the faculty of identifying this dynamics by means of recorded signal analysis is important to evaluate the short term volcanic hazard. The space-time evolution of dynamics due to injection of new magma in the magma chamber has been studied performing numerical simulations with, and implementing additional features in, the code GALES (Longo et al., 2006), recently developed and still on the upgrade at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia in Pisa (Italy). GALES is a finite element code based on a physico-mathematical two dimensional, transient model able to treat fluids as multiphase homogeneous mixtures, compressible to incompressible. The fundamental equations of mass, momentum and energy balance are discretised both in time and space using the Galerkin Least-Squares and discontinuity-capturing stabilisation technique. The physical properties of the mixture are computed as a function of local conditions of magma composition, pressure and temperature.The model features enable to study a broad range of phenomenologies characterizing pre and sin-eruptive magma dynamics in a wide domain from the volcanic crater to deep magma feeding zones. The study of displacement field associated with the simulated fluid dynamics has been carried out with a numerical code developed by the Geophysical group at the University College Dublin (O’Brien and Bean, 2004b), with whom we started a very profitable collaboration. In this code, the seismic wave propagation in heterogeneous media with free surface (e.g. the Earth’s surface) is simulated using a discrete elastic lattice where particle interactions are controlled by the Hooke’s law. This method allows to consider medium heterogeneities and complex topography. The initial and boundary conditions for the simulations have been defined within a coordinate project (INGV-DPC 2004-06 V3_2 “Research on active volcanoes, precursors, scenarios, hazard and risk - Campi Flegrei”), to which this thesis contributes, and many researchers experienced on Campi Flegrei in volcanological, seismic, petrological, geochemical fields, etc. collaborate. Numerical simulations of magma and rock dynamis have been coupled as described in the thesis. The first part of the thesis consists of a parametric study aimed at understanding the eect of the presence in magma of carbon dioxide in magma in the convection dynamics. Indeed, the presence of this volatile was relevant in many Campi Flegrei eruptions, including some eruptions commonly considered as reference for a future activity of this volcano. A set of simulations considering an elliptical magma chamber, compositionally uniform, refilled from below by a magma with volatile content equal or dierent from that of the resident magma has been performed. To do this, a multicomponent non-ideal magma saturation model (Papale et al., 2006) that considers the simultaneous presence of CO2 and H2O, has been implemented in GALES. Results show that the presence of CO2 in the incoming magma increases its buoyancy force promoting convection ad mixing. The simulated dynamics produce pressure transients with frequency and amplitude in the sensitivity range of modern geophysical monitoring networks such as the one installed at Campi Flegrei . In the second part, simulations more related with the Campi Flegrei volcanic system have been performed. The simulated system has been defined on the basis of conditions consistent with the bulk of knowledge of Campi Flegrei and in particular of the Agnano-Monte Spina eruption (4100 B.P.), commonly considered as reference for a future high intensity eruption in this area. The magmatic system has been modelled as a long dyke refilling a small shallow magma chamber; magmas with trachytic and phonolitic composition and variable volatile content of H2O and CO2 have been considered. The simulations have been carried out changing the condition of magma injection, the system configuration (magma chamber geometry, dyke size) and the resident and refilling magma composition and volatile content, in order to study the influence of these factors on the simulated dynamics. Simulation results allow to follow each step of the gas-rich magma ascent in the denser magma, highlighting the details of magma convection and mixing. In particular, the presence of more CO2 in the deep magma results in more ecient and faster dynamics. Through this simulations the variation of the gravimetric field has been determined. Afterward, the space-time distribution of stress resulting from numerical simulations have been used as boundary conditions for the simulations of the displacement field imposed by the magmatic dynamics on rocks. The properties of the simulated domain (rock density, P and S wave velocities) have been based on data from literature on active and passive tomographic experiments, obtained through a collaboration with A. Zollo at the Dept. of Physics of the Federici II Univeristy in Napoli. The elasto-dynamics simulations allow to determine the variations of the space-time distribution of deformation and the seismic signal associated with the studied magmatic dynamics. In particular, results show that these dynamics induce deformations similar to those measured at Campi Flegrei and seismic signals with energies concentrated on the typical frequency bands observed in volcanic areas. The present work shows that an approach based on the solution of equations describing the physics of processes within a magmatic fluid and the surrounding rock system is able to recognise and describe the relationships between geophysical signals detectable on the surface and deep magma dynamics. Therefore, the results suggest that the combined study of geophysical data and informations from numerical simulations can allow in a near future a more ecient evaluation of the short term volcanic hazard.

Analysis of eruptive and seismic sequences to improve the short-and long-term eruption forecasting

Forecasting the time, location, nature, and scale of volcanic eruptions is one of the most urgent aspects of modern applied volcanology. The reliability of probabilistic forecasting procedures is strongly related to the reliability of the input information provided, implying objective criteria for interpreting the historical and monitoring data. For this reason both, detailed analysis of past data and more basic research into the processes of volcanism, are fundamental tasks of a continuous information-gain process; in this way the precursor events of eruptions can be better interpreted in terms of their physical meanings with correlated uncertainties. This should lead to better predictions of the nature of eruptive events. In this work we have studied different problems associated with the long- and short-term eruption forecasting assessment. First, we discuss different approaches for the analysis of the eruptive history of a volcano, most of them generally applied for long-term eruption forecasting purposes; furthermore, we present a model based on the characteristics of a Brownian passage-time process to describe recurrent eruptive activity, and apply it for long-term, time-dependent, eruption forecasting (Chapter 1). Conversely, in an effort to define further monitoring parameters as input data for short-term eruption forecasting in probabilistic models (as for example, the Bayesian Event Tree for eruption forecasting -BET_EF-), we analyze some characteristics of typical seismic activity recorded in active volcanoes; in particular, we use some methodologies that may be applied to analyze long-period (LP) events (Chapter 2) and volcano-tectonic (VT) seismic swarms (Chapter 3); our analysis in general are oriented toward the tracking of phenomena that can provide information about magmatic processes. Finally, we discuss some possible ways to integrate the results presented in Chapters 1 (for long-term EF), 2 and 3 (for short-term EF) in the BET_EF model (Chapter 4).

Paleosecular variation of the magnetic field recorded in Pleistocene-holocene volcanics from Pantelleria (italy) and Azores archipelago (portugal): implications for local volcanic history

The primary goal of volcanological studies is to reconstruct the eruptive history of active volcanoes, by correlating and dating volcanic deposits, in order to depict a future scenario and determine the volcanic hazard of an area. However, alternative methods are necessary where the lack of outcrops, the deposit variability and discontinuity make the correlation difficult, and suitable materials for an accurate dating lack. In this thesis, paleomagnetism (a branch of Geophysics studying the remanent magnetization preserved in rocks) is used as a correlating and dating tool. The correlation is based on the assumption that coeval rocks record similar paleomagnetic directions; the dating relies upon the comparison between paleomagnetic directions recorded by rocks with the expected values from references Paleo-Secular Variation curves (PSV, the variation of the geomagnetic field along time). I first used paleomagnetism to refine the knowledge of the pre – 50 ka geologic history of the Pantelleria island (Strait of Sicily, Italy), by correlating five ignimbrites and two breccias deposits emplaced during that period. Since the use of the paleomagnetic dating is limited by the availability of PSV curves for the studied area, I firstly recovered both paleomagnetic directions and intensities (using a modified Thellier method) from radiocarbon dated lava flows in São Miguel (Azores Islands, Portugal), reconstructing the first PSV reference curve for the Atlantic Ocean for the last 3 ka. Afterwards, I applied paleomagnetism to unravel the chronology and characteristics of Holocene volcanic activity at Faial (Azores) where geochronological age constraints lack. I correlated scoria cones and lava flows yielded by the same eruption on the Capelo Peninsula and dated eruptive events (by comparing paleomagnetic directions with PSV from France and United Kingdom), finding that the volcanics exposed at the Capelo Peninsula are younger than previously believed, and entirely comprised in the last 4 ka.

Locating the source of volcanic tremor at stromboli volcano, italy

We have developed a method for locating sources of volcanic tremor and applied it to a dataset recorded on Stromboli volcano before and after the onset of the February 27th 2007 effusive eruption. Volcanic tremor has attracted considerable attention by seismologists because of its potential value as a tool for forecasting eruptions and for better understanding the physical processes that occur inside active volcanoes. Commonly used methods to locate volcanic tremor sources are: 1) array techniques, 2) semblance based methods, 3) calculation of wave field amplitude. We have choosen the third approach, using a quantitative modeling of the seismic wavefield. For this purpose, we have calculated the Green Functions (GF) in the frequency domain with the Finite Element Method (FEM). We have used this method because it is well suited to solve elliptic problems, as the elastodynamics in the Fourier domain. The volcanic tremor source is located by determining the source function over a regular grid of points. The best fit point is choosen as the tremor source location. The source inversion is performed in the frequency domain, using only the wavefield amplitudes. We illustrate the method and its validation over a synthetic dataset. We show some preliminary results on the Stromboli dataset, evidencing temporal variations of the volcanic tremor sources.

3D probability tomography: theoretical developments and applications to high-resolution geophysical prospecting

The theory of the 3D multipole probability tomography method (3D GPT) to image source poles, dipoles, quadrupoles and octopoles, of a geophysical vector or scalar field dataset is developed. A geophysical dataset is assumed to be the response of an aggregation of poles, dipoles, quadrupoles and octopoles. These physical sources are used to reconstruct without a priori assumptions the most probable position and shape of the true geophysical buried sources, by determining the location of their centres and critical points of their boundaries, as corners, wedges and vertices. This theory, then, is adapted to the geoelectrical, gravity and self potential methods. A few synthetic examples using simple geometries and three field examples are discussed in order to demonstrate the notably enhanced resolution power of the new approach. At first, the application to a field example related to a dipole–dipole geoelectrical survey carried out in the archaeological park of Pompei is presented. The survey was finalised to recognize remains of the ancient Roman urban network including roads, squares and buildings, which were buried under the thick pyroclastic cover fallen during the 79 AD Vesuvius eruption. The revealed anomaly structures are ascribed to wellpreserved remnants of some aligned walls of Roman edifices, buried and partially destroyed by the 79 AD Vesuvius pyroclastic fall. Then, a field example related to a gravity survey carried out in the volcanic area of Mount Etna (Sicily, Italy) is presented, aimed at imaging as accurately as possible the differential mass density structure within the first few km of depth inside the volcanic apparatus. An assemblage of vertical prismatic blocks appears to be the most probable gravity model of the Etna apparatus within the first 5 km of depth below sea level. Finally, an experimental SP dataset collected in the Mt. Somma-Vesuvius volcanic district (Naples, Italy) is elaborated in order to define location and shape of the sources of two SP anomalies of opposite sign detected in the northwestern sector of the surveyed area. The modelled sources are interpreted as the polarization state induced by an intense hydrothermal convective flow mechanism within the volcanic apparatus, from the free surface down to about 3 km of depth b.s.l..

Slope stability analysis by multi-temporal DEMs and 3D modelling: The 2002 and 2007 Stromboli landslide events

Natural hazard related to the volcanic activity represents a potential risk factor, particularly in the vicinity of human settlements. Besides to the risk related to the explosive and effusive activity, the instability of volcanic edifices may develop into large landslides often catastrophically destructive, as shown by the collapse of the northern flank of Mount St. Helens in 1980. A combined approach was applied to analyse slope failures that occurred at Stromboli volcano. SdF slope stability was evaluated by using high-resolution multi-temporal DTMMs and performing limit equilibrium stability analyses. High-resolution topographical data collected with remote sensing techniques and three-dimensional slope stability analysis play a key role in understanding instability mechanism and the related risks. Analyses carried out on the 2002–2003 and 2007 Stromboli eruptions, starting from high-resolution data acquired through airborne remote sensing surveys, permitted the estimation of the lava volumes emplaced on the SdF slope and contributed to the investigation of the link between magma emission and slope instabilities. Limit Equilibrium analyses were performed on the 2001 and 2007 3D models, in order to simulate the slope behavior before 2002-2003 landslide event and after the 2007 eruption. Stability analyses were conducted to understand the mechanisms that controlled the slope deformations which occurred shortly after the 2007 eruption onset, involving the upper part of slope. Limit equilibrium analyses applied to both cases yielded results which are congruent with observations and monitoring data. The results presented in this work undoubtedly indicate that hazard assessment for the island of Stromboli should take into account the fact that a new magma intrusion could lead to further destabilisation of the slope, which may be more significant than the one recently observed because it will affect an already disarranged deposit and fractured and loosened crater area. The two-pronged approach based on the analysis of 3D multi-temporal mapping datasets and on the application of LE methods contributed to better understanding volcano flank behaviour and to be prepared to undertake actions aimed at risk mitigation.

Modeling hydrothermal system: deriving observables and hydrothermal instability in volcanic and non-volcanic setting

Hydrothermal fluids are a fundamental resource for understanding and monitoring volcanic and non-volcanic systems. This thesis is focused on the study of hydrothermal system through numerical modeling with the geothermal simulator TOUGH2. Several simulations are presented, and geophysical and geochemical observables, arising from fluids circulation, are analyzed in detail throughout the thesis. In a volcanic setting, fluids feeding fumaroles and hot spring may play a key role in the hazard evaluation. The evolution of the fluids circulation is caused by a strong interaction between magmatic and hydrothermal systems. A simultaneous analysis of different geophysical and geochemical observables is a sound approach for interpreting monitored data and to infer a consistent conceptual model. Analyzed observables are ground displacement, gravity changes, electrical conductivity, amount, composition and temperature of the emitted gases at surface, and extent of degassing area. Results highlight the different temporal response of the considered observables, as well as the different radial pattern of variation. However, magnitude, temporal response and radial pattern of these signals depend not only on the evolution of fluid circulation, but a main role is played by the considered rock properties. Numerical simulations highlight differences that arise from the assumption of different permeabilities, for both homogeneous and heterogeneous systems. Rock properties affect hydrothermal fluid circulation, controlling both the range of variation and the temporal evolution of the observable signals. Low temperature fumaroles and low discharge rate may be affected by atmospheric conditions. Detailed parametric simulations were performed, aimed to understand the effects of system properties, such as permeability and gas reservoir overpressure, on diffuse degassing when air temperature and barometric pressure changes are applied to the ground surface. Hydrothermal circulation, however, is not only a characteristic of volcanic system. Hot fluids may be involved in several mankind problems, such as studies on geothermal engineering, nuclear waste propagation in porous medium, and Geological Carbon Sequestration (GCS). The current concept for large-scale GCS is the direct injection of supercritical carbon dioxide into deep geological formations which typically contain brine. Upward displacement of such brine from deep reservoirs driven by pressure increases resulting from carbon dioxide injection may occur through abandoned wells, permeable faults or permeable channels. Brine intrusion into aquifers may degrade groundwater resources. Numerical results show that pressure rise drives dense water up to the conduits, and does not necessarily result in continuous flow. Rather, overpressure leads to new hydrostatic equilibrium if fluids are initially density stratified. If warm and salty fluid does not cool passing through the conduit, an oscillatory solution is then possible. Parameter studies delineate steady-state (static) and oscillatory solutions.

Potential fields study of Marsili basin and Palinuro volcanic complex

In this thesis Marsili back-arc basin and Palinuro Volcanic Complex (Southern Tyrrhenian Sea) have been investigated by using magnetic, bathymetric and gravimetric data. A new velocity model of opening of the Marsili basin has been proposed, highlighting the transition from the horizontal spreading of the back-arc to the vertical accretion of the Marsili seamount. Introducing gravity data, Marsili's internal structure has been modeled and a huge portion of the volcano with low density and vanishing magnetization has been detected. Forward modeling of Palinuro Volcanic Complex showed as Palinuro represents the shallowest evidence of a deep tectonic discontinuity and the possible transition domain between the oceanic crust of Marsili Basin and the continental crust related to the Appenninic chain.

The bursting behavior of gas slugs: laboratory and analytical insights into Strombolian volcanic eruptions.

The aim of this thesis is to study how explosive behavior and geophysical signals in a volcanic conduit are related to the development of overpressure in slug-driven eruptions. A first suite of laboratory experiments of gas slugs ascending in analogue conduits was performed. Slugs ascended into a range of analogue liquids and conduit diameters to allow proper scaling to the natural volcanoes. The geometrical variation of the slug in response to the explored variables was parameterised. Volume of gas slug and rheology of the liquid phase revealed the key parameters in controlling slug overpressure at bursting. Founded on these results, a theoretical model to calculate burst overpressure for slug-driven eruptions was developed. The dimensionless approach adopted allowed to apply the model to predict bursting pressure of slugs at Stromboli. Comparison of predicted values with measured data from Stromboli volcano showed that the model can explain the entire spectrum of observed eruptive styles at Stromboli – from low-energy puffing, through normal Strombolian eruptions, up to paroxysmal explosions – as manifestations of a single underlying physical process. Finally, another suite of laboratory experiments was performed to observe oscillatory pressure and forces variations generated during the expansion and bursting of gas slugs ascending in a conduit. Two end-member boundary conditions were imposed at the base of the pipe, simulating slug ascent in closed base (zero magma flux) and open base (constant flux) conduit. At the top of the pipe, a range of boundary conditions that are relevant at a volcanic vent were imposed, going from open to plugged vent. The results obtained illustrate that a change in boundary conditions in the conduit concur to affect the dynamic of slug expansion and burst: an upward flux at the base of the conduit attenuates the magnitude of the pressure transients, while a rheological stiffening in the top-most region of conduit changes dramatically the magnitude of the observed pressure transients, favoring a sudden, and more energetic pressure release into the overlying atmosphere. Finally, a discussion on the implication of changing boundary on the oscillatory processes generated at the volcanic scale is also given.

Reconstruction of Etna recent flank eruptions for assessing diversion barrier project

The thesis contributed to the volcanic hazard assessment through the reconstruction of some historical flank eruptions of Etna in order to obtain quantitative data (volumes, effusion rates, etc.) for characterizing the recent effusive activity, quantifying the impact on the territory and defining mitigation actions for reducing the volcanic risk as for example containment barriers. The reconstruction was based on a quantitative approach using data extracted from aerial photographs and topographic maps. The approach allows to obtain the temporal evolution of the lava flow field and estimating the Time Average Discharge Rate (TADR) by dividing the volume emplaced over a given time interval for the corresponding duration. The analysis concerned the 2001, 1981 and 1928 Etna eruptions. The choice of these events is linked to their impact on inhabited areas. The results of the analysis showed an extraordinarily high effusion rate for the 1981 and 1928 eruptions (over 600 m^3/s), unusual for Etna eruptions. For the 1981 Etna eruption an eruptive model was proposed to explain the high discharge rate. The obtained TADRs were used as input data for simulations of the propagation of the lava flows for evaluating different scenarios of volcanic hazard and analyse different mitigation actions against lava flow invasion. It was experienced how numerical simulations could be adopted for evaluating the effectiveness of barrier construction and for supporting their optimal design. In particular, the gabions were proposed as an improvement for the construction of barriers with respect to the earthen barriers. The gabion barriers allow to create easily modular structures reducing the handled volumes and the intervention time. For evaluating operational constrain an experimental test was carried out to test the filling of the gabions with volcanic rock and evaluating their deformation during transport and placement.

Indoor and Outdoor Natural Radioactivity in the Vulsini Volcanic District (Central Italy): Estimation of Doses and Radiological Risks

Terrestrial radioactivity for most individual is the major contributor to the total dose and is mostly provided by 238U, 232Th and 40K radionuclides. In particular indoor radioactivity is principally due to 222Rn, a radioactive noble gas descendent of 238U, second cause of lung cancer after cigarettes smoking. Vulsini Volcanic District is a well known quaternary volcanic area located between the northern Latium and southern Tuscany (Central Italy). It is characterized by an high natural radiation background resulting from the high concentrations of 238U, 232Th and 40K in the volcanic products. In this context, subduction-related metasomatic enrichment of incompatible elements in the mantle source coupled with magma differentiation within the upper crust has given rise to U, Th and K enriched melts. Almost every ancient village and town located in this part of Italy has been built with volcanic rocks pertaining to the Vulsini Volcanic District. The radiological risk of living in this area has been estimated considering separately: a. the risk associated with buildings made of volcanic products and built on volcanic rock substrates b. the risk associated to soil characteristics. The former has been evaluated both using direct 222Rn indoor measurements and simulations of “standard rooms” built with the tuffs and lavas from the Vulsini Volcanic District investigated in this work. The latter has been carried out by using in situ measurements of 222Rn activity in the soil gases. A radon risk map for the Bolsena village has been developed using soil radon measurements integrating geological information. Data of airborne radioactivity in ambient aerosol at two elevated stations in Emilia Romagna (North Italy) under the influence of Fukushima plume have been collected, effective doses have been calculated and an extensive comparison between doses associated with artificial and natural sources in different area have been described and discussed.

Toward a Magnitude Scale for Low Frequency Seismicity The LP energy for Campi Flegrei caldera

The energy released during a seismic crisis in volcanic areas is strictly related to the physical processes in the volcanic structure. In particular Long Period seismicity, that seems to be related to the oscillation of a fluid-filled crack (Chouet , 1996, Chouet, 2003, McNutt, 2005), can precedes or accompanies an eruption. The present doctoral thesis is focused on the study of the LP seismicity recorded in the Campi Flegrei volcano (Campania, Italy) during the October 2006 crisis. Campi Flegrei Caldera is an active caldera; the combination of an active magmatic system and a dense populated area make the Campi Flegrei a critical volcano. The source dynamic of LP seismicity is thought to be very different from the other kind of seismicity ( Tectonic or Volcano Tectonic): it’s characterized by a time sustained source and a low content in frequency. This features implies that the duration–magnitude, that is commonly used for VT events and sometimes for LPs as well, is unadapted for LP magnitude evaluation. The main goal of this doctoral work was to develop a method for the determination of the magnitude for the LP seismicity; it’s based on the comparison of the energy of VT event and LP event, linking the energy to the VT moment magnitude. So the magnitude of the LP event would be the moment magnitude of a VT event with the same energy of the LP. We applied this method to the LP data-set recorded at Campi Flegrei caldera in 2006, to an LP data-set of Colima volcano recorded in 2005 – 2006 and for an event recorded at Etna volcano. Experimenting this method to lots of waveforms recorded at different volcanoes we tested its easy applicability and consequently its usefulness in the routinely and in the quasi-real time work of a volcanological observatory.