Un’analisi statistico – economica dell’impatto delle norme WHO su nutrizione e salute

I comportamenti nutrizionali stanno assumendo sempre maggiore rilievo all’interno delle politiche comunitarie e questo sottolinea che la dieta sta avendo, negli ultimi anni, una maggiore importanza come fattore di causa e allo stesso tempo prevenzione nella diffusione di malattie croniche come il cancro, malattie cardiovascolari, diabete, osteoporosi e disturbi dentali. Numerosi studi mostrano infatti che i tassi di obesità sono triplicati nelle ultime due decadi e si è stimato che, se i livelli di obesità continueranno a crescere allo stesso tasso del 1990, nel 2010 il numero di persone obese raggiungerà i 150 milioni tra gli adulti e i 15 milioni tra bambini e adolescenti. I governi nazionali stanno quindi cercando di risolvere questo problema, a cui sono inoltre legati alti costi nazionali, tramite l’implementazione di politiche nutrizionali. Analisi di tipo cross-section sono già state evidenziate da studiosi come Schmidhuber e Traill (2006), i quali hanno effettuato un’analisi di convergenza a livello europeo per esaminare la distanza tra le calorie immesse da 426 prodotti diversi. In quest’analisi hanno così dimostrato la presenza di una similarità distinta e crescente tra i paesi europei per quanto riguarda la composizione della dieta. Srinivasan et al. invece hanno osservato la relazione esistente tra ogni singolo prodotto alimentare consumato e le norme nutrizionali dell’ Organizzazione Mondiale della Sanità (World Health Organization, WHO) Lo scopo di questa tesi è quello di evidenziare il problema a livello di aggregati nutritivi e di specifiche componenti nutrizionali come zucchero, frutta e verdura e non relativamente ad ogni singolo prodotto consumato. A questo proposito ci si è basati sulla costruzione di un indicatore (Recommendation Compliance Index) in modo da poter misurare le distanze tra la dieta media e le raccomandazioni del WHO. Lo scopo è quindi quello di riuscire a quantificare il fenomeno del peggioramento della dieta in diverse aree del mondo negli ultimi quattro decenni, tramite un’analisi panel, basandosi sui dati sui nutrienti consumati, provenienti dal database della FAO (e precisamente dal dataset Food Balance Sheets – FBS). Nella prima fase si introduce il problema dell’obesità e delle malattie croniche correlate, evidenziando dati statistici in diversi paesi europei e mondiali. Si sottolineano inoltre le diverse azioni dei governi e del WHO, tramite l’attuazione di campagne contro l’obesità e in favore di una vita più salutare e di una maggiore attività fisica. Nella seconda fase si è costruito un indicatore aggregato (Recommendation Compliance Index) in modo da analizzare le caratteristiche nella dieta dei diversi Paesi a livello mondiale rispetto alle norme del WHO. L’indicatore si basa sui dati ottenuti da FAOSTAT ed è calcolato per 149 paesi del database dell’FBS per il periodo 1961-2002. Nell’analisi si sono utilizzati i dati sulle percentuali di energia prodotta dalle varie componenti nutritive, quali grassi, grassi saturi e transaturi, zuccheri, carboidrati, proteine e le quantità di frutta e verdura consumate. Inoltre si è applicato un test statistico per testare se il valore del RCI è significativamente cambiato nel tempo, prendendo in considerazione gruppi di Paesi (Paesi OECD, Paesi in via di sviluppo e sottosviluppati). Si è voluto poi valutare la presenza o meno di un processo di convergenza, applicando l’analisi di σ-convergenza per osservare ad esempio se la variabilità è diminuita nel tempo in modo significativo. Infine si è applicato l’indicatore ad un livello micro, utilizzando il database del National Diet and Nutrition Survey, che raccoglie dati di macrocomponenti nutritive e misure antropometriche della popolazione inglese dai 16 ai 64 anni per il periodo 2000-2001. Si sono quindi effettuate analisi descrittive nonché analisi di correlazione, regressione lineare e ordinale per osservare le relazioni tra l’indicatore, i macronutrienti, il reddito e le misure antropometriche dell’ Indice di Massa Corporea (Body Mass Index, BMI) e del rapporto vita-fianchi (Waist-hip ratio, WHR).

Entrepreneurship influential factors in development of rural tourism as diversified rural activity in Republic of Macedonia

Rural tourism is relatively new product in the process of diversification of the rural economy in Republic of Macedonia. This study used desk research and life story interviews of rural tourism entrepreneurs as qualitative research method to identify prevalent success influential factors. Further quantitative analysis was applied in order to measure the strength of influence of identified success factors. The primary data for the quantitative research was gathered using telephone questionnaire composed of 37 questions with 5-points Likert scale. The data was analyzed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) by SmartPLS 3.1.6. Results indicated that human capital, social capital, entrepreneurial personality and external business environment are predominant influential success factors. However, human capital has non-significant direct effect on success (p 0.493) nonetheless the effect was indirect with high level of partial mediation through entrepreneurial personality as mediator (VAF 73%). Personality of the entrepreneur, social capital and business environment have direct positive affect on entrepreneurial success (p 0.001, 0.003 and 0.045 respectably). Personality also mediates the positive effect of social capital on entrepreneurial success (VAF 28%). Opposite to the theory the data showed no interaction between social and human capital on the entrepreneurial success. This research suggests that rural tourism accommodation entrepreneurs could be more successful if there is increased support in development of social capital in form of conservation of cultural heritage and natural attractions. Priority should be finding the form to encourage and support the establishment of formal and informal associations of entrepreneurs in order to improve the conditions for management and marketing of the sector. Special support of family businesses in the early stages of the operation would have a particularly positive impact on the success of rural tourism. Local infrastructure, access to financial instruments, destination marketing and entrepreneurial personality have positive effect on success.

Bioinformatic methods in applied genomic research

Here I will focus on three main topics that best address and include the projects I have been working in during my three year PhD period that I have spent in different research laboratories addressing both computationally and practically important problems all related to modern molecular genomics. The first topic is the use of livestock species (pigs) as a model of obesity, a complex human dysfunction. My efforts here concern the detection and annotation of Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms. I developed a pipeline for mining human and porcine sequences. Starting from a set of human genes related with obesity the platform returns a list of annotated porcine SNPs extracted from a new set of potential obesity-genes. 565 of these SNPs were analyzed on an Illumina chip to test the involvement in obesity on a population composed by more than 500 pigs. Results will be discussed. All the computational analysis and experiments were done in collaboration with the Biocomputing group and Dr.Luca Fontanesi, respectively, under the direction of prof. Rita Casadio at the Bologna University, Italy. The second topic concerns developing a methodology, based on Factor Analysis, to simultaneously mine information from different levels of biological organization. With specific test cases we develop models of the complexity of the mRNA-miRNA molecular interaction in brain tumors measured indirectly by microarray and quantitative PCR. This work was done under the supervision of Prof. Christine Nardini, at the “CAS-MPG Partner Institute for Computational Biology” of Shangai, China (co-founded by the Max Planck Society and the Chinese Academy of Sciences jointly) The third topic concerns the development of a new method to overcome the variety of PCR technologies routinely adopted to characterize unknown flanking DNA regions of a viral integration locus of the human genome after clinical gene therapy. This new method is entirely based on next generation sequencing and it reduces the time required to detect insertion sites, decreasing the complexity of the procedure. This work was done in collaboration with the group of Dr. Manfred Schmidt at the Nationales Centrum für Tumorerkrankungen (Heidelberg, Germany) supervised by Dr. Annette Deichmann and Dr. Ali Nowrouzi. Furthermore I add as an Appendix the description of a R package for gene network reconstruction that I helped to develop for scientific usage (http://www.bioconductor.org/help/bioc-views/release/bioc/html/BUS.html).

Heterosis in maize (Zea mays, L.): characterization of heterotic quantitative trait loci (QTL) for agronomic traits in near isogenic lines (NILs) and their testcrosses

In a previous study on maize (Zea mays, L.) several quantitative trait loci (QTL) showing high dominance-additive ratio for agronomic traits were identified in a population of recombinant inbred lines derived from B73 × H99. For four of these mapped QTL, namely 3.05, 4.10, 7.03 and 10.03 according to their chromosome and bin position, families of near-isogenic lines (NILs) were developed, i.e., couples of homozygous lines nearly identical except for the QTL region that is homozygote either for the allele provided by B73 or by H99. For two of these QTL (3.05 and 4.10) the NILs families were produced in two different genetic backgrounds. The present research was conducted in order to: (i) characterize these QTL by estimating additive and dominance effects; (ii) investigate if these effects can be affected by genetic background, inbreeding level and environmental growing conditions (low vs. high plant density). The six NILs’ families were tested across three years and in three Experiments at different inbreeding levels as NILs per se and their reciprocal crosses (Experiment 1), NILs crossed to related inbreds B73 and H99 (Experiment 2) and NILs crossed to four unrelated inbreds (Experiment 3). Experiment 2 was conducted at two plant densities (4.5 and 9.0 plants m-2). Results of Experiments 1 and 2 confirmed previous findings as to QTL effects, with dominance-additive ratio superior to 1 for several traits, especially for grain yield per plant and its component traits; as a tendency, dominance effects were more pronounced in Experiment 1. The QTL effects were also confirmed in Experiment 3. The interactions involving QTL effects, families and plant density were generally negligible, suggesting a certain stability of the QTL. Results emphasize the importance of dominance effects for these QTL, suggesting that they might deserve further studies, using NILs’ families and their crosses as base materials.

Cascading events triggering industrial accidents: quantitative assessment of NaTech and domino scenarios

The so called cascading events, which lead to high-impact low-frequency scenarios are rising concern worldwide. A chain of events result in a major industrial accident with dreadful (and often unpredicted) consequences. Cascading events can be the result of the realization of an external threat, like a terrorist attack a natural disaster or of “domino effect”. During domino events the escalation of a primary accident is driven by the propagation of the primary event to nearby units, causing an overall increment of the accident severity and an increment of the risk associated to an industrial installation. Also natural disasters, like intense flooding, hurricanes, earthquake and lightning are found capable to enhance the risk of an industrial area, triggering loss of containment of hazardous materials and in major accidents. The scientific community usually refers to those accidents as “NaTechs”: natural events triggering industrial accidents. In this document, a state of the art of available approaches to the modelling, assessment, prevention and management of domino and NaTech events is described. On the other hand, the relevant work carried out during past studies still needs to be consolidated and completed, in order to be applicable in a real industrial framework. New methodologies, developed during my research activity, aimed at the quantitative assessment of domino and NaTech accidents are presented. The tools and methods provided within this very study had the aim to assist the progress toward a consolidated and universal methodology for the assessment and prevention of cascading events, contributing to enhance safety and sustainability of the chemical and process industry.