Preliminary studies for the establishment of a tsunami early detection algorithm to be used in the frame of a Tsunami Warning System

This thesis presents and discusses TEDA, an algorithm for the automatic detection in real-time of tsunamis and large amplitude waves on sea level records. TEDA has been developed in the frame of the Tsunami Research Team of the University of Bologna for coastal tide gauges and it has been calibrated and tested for the tide gauge station of Adak Island, in Alaska. A preliminary study to apply TEDA to offshore buoys in the Pacific Ocean is also presented.

Early Warning For Large Earthquakes: Observations, Models and Real-Time Data Analysis

This thesis is a collection of works focused on the topic of Earthquake Early Warning, with a special attention to large magnitude events. The topic is addressed from different points of view and the structure of the thesis reflects the variety of the aspects which have been analyzed. The first part is dedicated to the giant, 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The main features of the rupture process are first discussed. The earthquake is then used as a case study to test the feasibility Early Warning methodologies for very large events. Limitations of the standard approaches for large events arise in this chapter. The difficulties are related to the real-time magnitude estimate from the first few seconds of recorded signal. An evolutionary strategy for the real-time magnitude estimate is proposed and applied to the single Tohoku-Oki earthquake. In the second part of the thesis a larger number of earthquakes is analyzed, including small, moderate and large events. Starting from the measurement of two Early Warning parameters, the behavior of small and large earthquakes in the initial portion of recorded signals is investigated. The aim is to understand whether small and large earthquakes can be distinguished from the initial stage of their rupture process. A physical model and a plausible interpretation to justify the observations are proposed. The third part of the thesis is focused on practical, real-time approaches for the rapid identification of the potentially damaged zone during a seismic event. Two different approaches for the rapid prediction of the damage area are proposed and tested. The first one is a threshold-based method which uses traditional seismic data. Then an innovative approach using continuous, GPS data is explored. Both strategies improve the prediction of large scale effects of strong earthquakes.

The rupture process of recent tsunamigenic earthquakes by geophysical data inversion

Subduction zones are the favorite places to generate tsunamigenic earthquakes, where friction between oceanic and continental plates causes the occurrence of a strong seismicity. The topics and the methodologies discussed in this thesis are focussed to the understanding of the rupture process of the seismic sources of great earthquakes that generate tsunamis. The tsunamigenesis is controlled by several kinematical characteristic of the parent earthquake, as the focal mechanism, the depth of the rupture, the slip distribution along the fault area and by the mechanical properties of the source zone. Each of these factors plays a fundamental role in the tsunami generation. Therefore, inferring the source parameters of tsunamigenic earthquakes is crucial to understand the generation of the consequent tsunami and so to mitigate the risk along the coasts. The typical way to proceed when we want to gather information regarding the source process is to have recourse to the inversion of geophysical data that are available. Tsunami data, moreover, are useful to constrain the portion of the fault area that extends offshore, generally close to the trench that, on the contrary, other kinds of data are not able to constrain. In this thesis I have discussed the rupture process of some recent tsunamigenic events, as inferred by means of an inverse method. I have presented the 2003 Tokachi-Oki (Japan) earthquake (Mw 8.1). In this study the slip distribution on the fault has been inferred by inverting tsunami waveform, GPS, and bottom-pressure data. The joint inversion of tsunami and geodetic data has revealed a much better constrain for the slip distribution on the fault rather than the separate inversions of single datasets. Then we have studied the earthquake occurred on 2007 in southern Sumatra (Mw 8.4). By inverting several tsunami waveforms, both in the near and in the far field, we have determined the slip distribution and the mean rupture velocity along the causative fault. Since the largest patch of slip was concentrated on the deepest part of the fault, this is the likely reason for the small tsunami waves that followed the earthquake, pointing out how much the depth of the rupture plays a crucial role in controlling the tsunamigenesis. Finally, we have presented a new rupture model for the great 2004 Sumatra earthquake (Mw 9.2). We have performed the joint inversion of tsunami waveform, GPS and satellite altimetry data, to infer the slip distribution, the slip direction, and the rupture velocity on the fault. Furthermore, in this work we have presented a novel method to estimate, in a self-consistent way, the average rigidity of the source zone. The estimation of the source zone rigidity is important since it may play a significant role in the tsunami generation and, particularly for slow earthquakes, a low rigidity value is sometimes necessary to explain how a relatively low seismic moment earthquake may generate significant tsunamis; this latter point may be relevant for explaining the mechanics of the tsunami earthquakes, one of the open issues in present day seismology. The investigation of these tsunamigenic earthquakes has underlined the importance to use a joint inversion of different geophysical data to determine the rupture characteristics. The results shown here have important implications for the implementation of new tsunami warning systems – particularly in the near-field – the improvement of the current ones, and furthermore for the planning of the inundation maps for tsunami-hazard assessment along the coastal area.

Studio di fenomeni d'instabilità gravitativa sui fondali marini, con particolare riferimento all'isola di Stromboli

In the last decade the interest for submarine instability grew up, driven by the increasing exploitation of natural resources (primary hydrocarbons), the emplacement of bottom-lying structures (cables and pipelines) and by the development of coastal areas, whose infrastructures increasingly protrude to the sea. The great interest for this topic promoted a number of international projects such as: STEAM (Sediment Transport on European Atlantic Margins, 93-96), ENAM II (European North Atlantic Margin, 96-99), GITEC (Genesis and Impact of Tsunamis on the European Coast 92-95), STRATAFORM (STRATA FORmation on Margins, 95-01), Seabed Slope Process in Deep Water Continental Margin (Northwest Gulf of Mexico, 96-04), COSTA (Continental slope Stability, 00-05), EUROMARGINS (Slope Stability on Europe’s Passive Continental Margin), SPACOMA (04-07), EUROSTRATAFORM (European Margin Strata Formation), NGI's internal project SIP-8 (Offshore Geohazards), IGCP-511: Submarine Mass Movements and Their Consequences (05-09) and projects indirectly related to instability processes, such as TRANSFER (Tsunami Risk ANd Strategies For the European region, 06-09) or NEAREST (integrated observations from NEAR shore sourcES of Tsunamis: towards an early warning system, 06-09). In Italy, apart from a national project realized within the activities of the National Group of Volcanology during the framework 2000-2003 “Conoscenza delle parti sommerse dei vulcani italiani e valutazione del potenziale rischio vulcanico”, the study of submarine mass-movement has been underestimated until the occurrence of the landslide-tsunami events that affected Stromboli on December 30, 2002. This event made the Italian Institutions and the scientific community more aware of the hazard related to submarine landslides, mainly in light of the growing anthropization of coastal sectors, that increases the vulnerability of these areas to the consequences of such processes. In this regard, two important national projects have been recently funded in order to study coastal instabilities (PRIN 24, 06-08) and to map the main submarine hazard features on continental shelves and upper slopes around the most part of Italian coast (MaGIC Project). The study realized in this Thesis is addressed to the understanding of these processes, with particular reference to Stromboli submerged flanks. These latter represent a natural laboratory in this regard, as several kind of instability phenomena are present on the submerged flanks, affecting about 90% of the entire submerged areal and often (strongly) influencing the morphological evolution of subaerial slopes, as witnessed by the event occurred on 30 December 2002. Furthermore, each phenomenon is characterized by different pre-failure, failure and post-failure mechanisms, ranging from rock-falls, to turbidity currents up to catastrophic sector collapses. The Thesis is divided into three introductive chapters, regarding a brief review of submarine instability phenomena and related hazard (cap. 1), a “bird’s-eye” view on methodologies and available dataset (cap. 2) and a short introduction on the evolution and the morpho-structural setting of the Stromboli edifice (cap. 3). This latter seems to play a major role in the development of largescale sector collapses at Stromboli, as they occurred perpendicular to the orientation of the main volcanic rift axis (oriented in NE-SW direction). The characterization of these events and their relationships with successive erosive-depositional processes represents the main focus of cap.4 (Offshore evidence of large-scale lateral collapses on the eastern flank of Stromboli, Italy, due to structurally-controlled, bilateral flank instability) and cap. 5 (Lateral collapses and active sedimentary processes on the North-western flank of Stromboli Volcano), represented by articles accepted for publication on international papers (Marine Geology). Moreover, these studies highlight the hazard related to these catastrophic events; several calamities (with more than 40000 casualties only in the last two century) have been, in fact, the direct or indirect result of landslides affecting volcanic flanks, as observed at Oshima-Oshima (1741) and Unzen Volcano (1792) in Japan (Satake&Kato, 2001; Brantley&Scott, 1993), Krakatau (1883) in Indonesia (Self&Rampino, 1981), Ritter Island (1888), Sissano in Papua New Guinea (Ward& Day, 2003; Johnson, 1987; Tappin et al., 2001) and Mt St. Augustine (1883) in Alaska (Beget& Kienle, 1992). Flank landslide are also recognized as the most important and efficient mass-wasting process on volcanoes, contributing to the development of the edifices by widening their base and to the growth of a volcaniclastic apron at the foot of a volcano; a number of small and medium-scale erosive processes are also responsible for the carving of Stromboli submarine flanks and the transport of debris towards the deeper areas. The characterization of features associated to these processes is the main focus of cap. 6; it is also important to highlight that some small-scale events are able to create damage to coastal areas, as also witnessed by recent events of Gioia Tauro 1978, Nizza, 1979 and Stromboli 2002. The hazard potential related to these phenomena is, in fact, very high, as they commonly occur at higher frequency with respect to large-scale collapses, therefore being more significant in terms of human timescales. In the last chapter (cap. 7), a brief review and discussion of instability processes identified on Stromboli submerged flanks is presented; they are also compared with respect to analogous processes recognized in other submerged areas in order to shed lights on the main factors involved in their development. Finally, some applications of multibeam data to assess the hazard related to these phenomena are also discussed.

La responsabilità civile da prodotto farmaceutico

Il tema della ricerca ha riguardato preliminarmente la definizione di farmaco descritta nel d.lgs. n. 219 del 2006 (Codice dei farmaci per uso umano). Oltre al danno prodotto da farmaci, la ricerca ha approfondito anche la tutela ex ante ed ex post riguardante la produzione di dispositivi medici (Direttiva della Comunità Economica Europea n. 42 del 1993 e Direttiva della Comunità Economica Europea n. 374 del 1985). E’ stato necessario soffermarsi sull’analisi del concetto di precauzione per il quale nell’ambito di attività produttive, come quelle che cagionano inquinamento ambientale, o “pericolose per la salute umana” come quelle riguardanti la produzione di alimenti e farmaci, è necessario eliminare i rischi non conosciuti nella produzione di questi ultimi al fine di garantire una tutela completa della salute. L’analisi della Direttiva della Comunità Economica Europea n. 374 del 1985 nei suoi aspetti innovativi ha riguardato l’esame dei casi di danno da farmaco (Trib. Roma, 20 Giugno 2002, Trib. Roma 27 Giugno 1987, Trib. Milano 19 Novembre 1987, Cassazione Civile n. 6241 del 1987): profilo critico è quello riguardante la prova liberatoria, mentre l'art. 2050 prevede che «si debbano adottare tutte le misure necessarie per evitare il danno», l'art. 118, lett. e), c. cons.) prevede una serie di casi di esonero di responsabilità del produttore (tra cui il rischio di sviluppo). Dall'analisi emerge poi la necessità da parte del produttore di continuo utilizzo del duty to warn (Art. 117 del Codice del Consumo lett. A e B ): esso consiste nel dovere continuo di informazione del produttore tramite i suoi rappresentanti e il bugiardino presente nelle confezioni dei farmaci. Tale dovere è ancor più importante nel caso della farmacogenetica, infatti, al fine di evitare reazioni avverse nel bugiardino di alcuni farmaci verrà prescritta la necessità di effettuare un test genetico prima dell’assunzione.

Development of advanced tools and methods for the assessment and management of risk due to atypical major accident scenarios

Proper hazard identification has become progressively more difficult to achieve, as witnessed by several major accidents that took place in Europe, such as the Ammonium Nitrate explosion at Toulouse (2001) and the vapour cloud explosion at Buncefield (2005), whose accident scenarios were not considered by their site safety case. Furthermore, the rapid renewal in the industrial technology has brought about the need to upgrade hazard identification methodologies. Accident scenarios of emerging technologies, which are not still properly identified, may remain unidentified until they take place for the first time. The consideration of atypical scenarios deviating from normal expectations of unwanted events or worst case reference scenarios is thus extremely challenging. A specific method named Dynamic Procedure for Atypical Scenarios Identification (DyPASI) was developed as a complementary tool to bow-tie identification techniques. The main aim of the methodology is to provide an easier but comprehensive hazard identification of the industrial process analysed, by systematizing information from early signals of risk related to past events, near misses and inherent studies. DyPASI was validated on the two examples of new and emerging technologies: Liquefied Natural Gas regasification and Carbon Capture and Storage. The study broadened the knowledge on the related emerging risks and, at the same time, demonstrated that DyPASI is a valuable tool to obtain a complete and updated overview of potential hazards. Moreover, in order to tackle underlying accident causes of atypical events, three methods for the development of early warning indicators were assessed: the Resilience-based Early Warning Indicator (REWI) method, the Dual Assurance method and the Emerging Risk Key Performance Indicator method. REWI was found to be the most complementary and effective of the three, demonstrating that its synergy with DyPASI would be an adequate strategy to improve hazard identification methodologies towards the capture of atypical accident scenarios.

Analisi critica di modelli previsionali per le frane in Emilia Romagna

Questa tesi di dottorato è inserita nell’ambito della convenzione tra ARPA_SIMC (che è l’Ente finanziatore), l’Agenzia Regionale di Protezione Civile ed il Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e Geologico - Ambientali dell’Ateneo di Bologna. L’obiettivo principale è la determinazione di possibili soglie pluviometriche di innesco per i fenomeni franosi in Emilia Romagna che possano essere utilizzate come strumento di supporto previsionale in sala operativa di Protezione Civile. In un contesto geologico così complesso, un approccio empirico tradizionale non è sufficiente per discriminare in modo univoco tra eventi meteo innescanti e non, ed in generale la distribuzione dei dati appare troppo dispersa per poter tracciare una soglia statisticamente significativa. È stato quindi deciso di applicare il rigoroso approccio statistico Bayesiano, innovativo poiché calcola la probabilità di frana dato un certo evento di pioggia (P(A|B)) , considerando non solo le precipitazioni innescanti frane (quindi la probabilità condizionata di avere un certo evento di precipitazione data l’occorrenza di frana, P(B|A)), ma anche le precipitazioni non innescanti (quindi la probabilità a priori di un evento di pioggia, P(A)). L’approccio Bayesiano è stato applicato all’intervallo temporale compreso tra il 1939 ed il 2009. Le isolinee di probabilità ottenute minimizzano i falsi allarmi e sono facilmente implementabili in un sistema di allertamento regionale, ma possono presentare limiti previsionali per fenomeni non rappresentati nel dataset storico o che avvengono in condizioni anomale. Ne sono esempio le frane superficiali con evoluzione in debris flows, estremamente rare negli ultimi 70 anni, ma con frequenza recentemente in aumento. Si è cercato di affrontare questo problema testando la variabilità previsionale di alcuni modelli fisicamente basati appositamente sviluppati a questo scopo, tra cui X – SLIP (Montrasio et al., 1998), SHALSTAB (SHALlow STABility model, Montgomery & Dietrich, 1994), Iverson (2000), TRIGRS 1.0 (Baum et al., 2002), TRIGRS 2.0 (Baum et al., 2008).

Caratterizzazione citogenetico-molecolare alla diagnosi di pazienti con leucemia mieloide cronica in fase cronica trattati con inibitori delle tirosinchinasi: ruolo prognostico.

L’applicazione della citogenetica convenzionale e molecolare può identificare: Ph-negatività, traslocazioni t(9;22) varianti e alterazioni citogenetiche addizionali (ACA) al cromsoma Ph in pazienti con LMC alla diagnosi. Prima dell’introduzione della terapia con Imatinib, esse mostravano un impatto prognostico negativo o non chiaro. Nel nostro studio, 6 casi di LMC Ph- erano trattati con Imatinib. La FISH identificava 4 casi con riarrangiamento BCR/ABL sul der(9q), 1 sul der(22q) e 1 su entrambi i derivativi. Quattro pazienti (66,7%) raggiungevano la RCgC, 2 fallivano il trattamento e 1 sottoposto a TMO. A causa dello scarso numero di casi, non era possibile nessuna correlazione con la prognosi. Nell’ambito di studi prospettici multicentrici del GIMEMA-WP, abbiamo valutato: traslocazioni varianti e ACA. Dei 559 pazienti arruolati, 30(5%) mostravano traslocazioni varianti, 24 valutabili in FISH: 18(75%) mostravano meccanismo 1-step, 4(16,7%) meccanismo 2-step e 2(8,3%) meccanismo complesso. Abbiamo confermato che le varianti non influenzano la risposta e la sopravvivenza dei pazienti trattati con Imatinib. Dei 378 pazienti valutabili alla diagnosi con citogenetica convenzionale, 21(5,6%) mostravano ACA: 9(43%) avevano la perdita del cromosoma Y, 3(14%) trisomia 8, 2(10%) trisomia 19, 6(28%) altre singole anomalie e 1 cariotipo complesso. La presenza di ACA influenzava la risposta: le RCgC e RMolM erano significativamente più basse rispetto al gruppo senza ACA e le curve di sopravvivenza EFS e FFS non erano significativamente diverse. Le curve di PFS e OS erano sovrapponibili nei due gruppi, per il basso numero di eventi avversi oppure perché alcuni raggiungevano la risposta con TKI di seconda generazione. Le anomalie “major route” mostravano decorso clinico peggiore, ma non è stato possibile determinare l’impatto prognostico in relazione al tipo di alterazione. Pertanto, le ACAs alla diagnosi rivestono un ruolo negativo nella prognosi dei pazienti trattati con Imatinib, che quindi rappresentano una categoria più a rischio per la risposta.

Dati preliminari dello studio multicentrico caso-controllo "Grave danno epatico acuto indotto da farmaci"

Il danno epatico indotto dall'assunzione di farmaci viene comunemente indicato con il termine inglese DILI (Drug-Induced Liver Injury). Il paracetamolo rappresenta la causa più comune di DILI, seguito da antibiotici, FANS e farmaci antitubercolari. In particolare, i FANS sono una delle classi di farmaci maggiormente impiegate in terapia. Numerosi case report descrivono pazienti che hanno sviluppato danno epatico fatale durante il trattamento con FANS; molti di questi farmaci sono stati ritirati dal commercio in seguito a gravi reazioni avverse a carico del fegato. L'ultimo segnale di epatotossicità indotto da FANS è associato alla nimesulide; in alcuni paesi europei come la Finlandia, la Spagna e l'Irlanda, la nimesulide è stata sospesa dalla commercializzazione perché associata ad un'alta frequenza di epatotossicità. Sulla base dei dati disponibili fino a questo momento, l'Agenzia Europea dei Medicinali (EMA) ha recentemente concluso che i benefici del farmaco superano i rischi; un possibile aumento del rischio di epatotossicità associato a nimesulide rimane tuttavia una discussione aperta di cui ancora molto si dibatte. Tra le altre classi di farmaci che possono causare danno epatico acuto la cui incidenza tuttavia non è sempre ben definita sono gli antibiotici, quali amoxicillina e macrolidi, le statine e gli antidepressivi.Obiettivo dello studio è stato quello di determinare il rischio relativo di danno epatico indotto da farmaci con una prevalenza d'uso nella popolazione italiana maggiore o uguale al 6%. E’ stato disegnato uno studio caso controllo sviluppato intervistando pazienti ricoverati in reparti di diversi ospedali d’Italia. Il nostro studio ha messo in evidenza che il danno epatico da farmaci riguarda numerose classi farmacologiche e che la segnalazione di tali reazioni risulta essere statisticamente significativa per numerosi principi attivi. I dati preliminari hanno mostrato un valore di odds ratio significativo statisticamente per la nimesulide, i FANS, alcuni antibiotici come i macrolidi e il paracetamolo.

Risk analysis of tractor rollover in the normal operation in field

Tractor rollover represent a primary cause of death or serious injury in agriculture and despite the mandatory Roll-Over Protective Structures (ROPS), that reduced the number of injuries, tractor accidents are still of great concern. Because of their versatility and wide use many studies on safety are concerned with the stability of tractors, but they often prefer controlled tests or laboratory tests. The evaluation of tractors working in field, instead, is a very complex issue because the rollover could be influenced by the interaction among operator, tractor and environment. Recent studies are oriented towards the evaluation of the actual working conditions developing prototypes for driver assistance and data acquisition. Currently these devices are produced and sold by manufacturers. A warning device was assessed in this study with the aim to evaluate its performance and to collect data on different variables influencing the dynamics of tractors in field by monitoring continuously the working conditions of tractors operating at the experimental farm of the Bologna University. The device consists of accelerometers, gyroscope, GSM/GPRS, GPS for geo-referencing and a transceiver for the automatic recognition of tractor-connected equipment. A microprocessor processes data and provides information, through a dedicated algorithm requiring data on the geometry of the tested tractor, on the level of risk for the operator in terms of probable loss of stability and suggests corrective measures to reduce the potential instability of the tractor.

Global and regional sea level variations in the recent past and future: insight from observations and modeling

This work is focused on the analysis of sea–level change (last century), based mainly on instrumental observations. During this period, individual components of sea–level change are investigated, both at global and regional scales. Some of the geophysical processes responsible for current sea-level change such as glacial isostatic adjustments and current melting terrestrial ice sources, have been modeled and compared with observations. A new value of global mean sea level change based of tide gauges observations has been independently assessed in 1.5 mm/year, using corrections for glacial isostatic adjustment obtained with different models as a criterion for the tide gauge selection. The long wavelength spatial variability of the main components of sea–level change has been investigated by means of traditional and new spectral methods. Complex non–linear trends and abrupt sea–level variations shown by tide gauges records have been addressed applying different approaches to regional case studies. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition technique has been used to analyse tide gauges records from the Adriatic Sea to ascertain the existence of cyclic sea-level variations. An Early Warning approach have been adopted to detect tipping points in sea–level records of North East Pacific and their relationship with oceanic modes. Global sea–level projections to year 2100 have been obtained by a semi-empirical approach based on the artificial neural network method. In addition, a model-based approach has been applied to the case of the Mediterranean Sea, obtaining sea-level projection to year 2050.

Perdite aeree prolungate dopo resezione polmonare

Il tumore del polmone e una delle neoplasie più diagnosticate dal 1985 e rimane ancora oggi la causa più frequente di morte cancro-correlata nel mondo. Una resezione polmonare anatomica completa continua ad essere il cardine della terapia per il tumore non a piccole cellule. Perdite aeree prolungate (PAL) sono la più comune complicanza dopo una chirurgia polmonare e sono state riportate con un’incidenza compresa tra il 3-26%, simile sia nelle resezioni polmonari per via toracotomica sia in quelle per via toracoscopica. Fattori di rischio descritti sono scissure interlobari incomplete, patologie polmonari sottostanti (come enfisema, fibrosi, tubercolosi o neoplasie), aderenze pleuriche, pazienti anziani (>75 anni) e bassa capacita di diffusione. Lo sviluppo di strumentazione all’avanguardia e di nuove tecniche chirurgiche ha contribuito a ridurre l’incidenza di queste complicanze. Considerando l’alto impatto clinico e socio-economico di queste problematiche, e stata inoltre sviluppata una varietà di complementari naturali e materiali sintetici molti utili nella gestione delle perdite aeree.