Bayesian space-time data fusion for real-time forecasting and map uncertainty

Environmental computer models are deterministic models devoted to predict several environmental phenomena such as air pollution or meteorological events. Numerical model output is given in terms of averages over grid cells, usually at high spatial and temporal resolution. However, these outputs are often biased with unknown calibration and not equipped with any information about the associated uncertainty. Conversely, data collected at monitoring stations is more accurate since they essentially provide the true levels. Due the leading role played by numerical models, it now important to compare model output with observations. Statistical methods developed to combine numerical model output and station data are usually referred to as data fusion. In this work, we first combine ozone monitoring data with ozone predictions from the Eta-CMAQ air quality model in order to forecast real-time current 8-hour average ozone level defined as the average of the previous four hours, current hour, and predictions for the next three hours. We propose a Bayesian downscaler model based on first differences with a flexible coefficient structure and an efficient computational strategy to fit model parameters. Model validation for the eastern United States shows consequential improvement of our fully inferential approach compared with the current real-time forecasting system. Furthermore, we consider the introduction of temperature data from a weather forecast model into the downscaler, showing improved real-time ozone predictions. Finally, we introduce a hierarchical model to obtain spatially varying uncertainty associated with numerical model output. We show how we can learn about such uncertainty through suitable stochastic data fusion modeling using some external validation data. We illustrate our Bayesian model by providing the uncertainty map associated with a temperature output over the northeastern United States.

The spatial representation of time

Numerosi studi mostrano che gli intervalli temporali sono rappresentati attraverso un codice spaziale che si estende da sinistra verso destra, dove gli intervalli brevi sono rappresentati a sinistra rispetto a quelli lunghi. Inoltre tale disposizione spaziale del tempo può essere influenzata dalla manipolazione dell’attenzione-spaziale. La presente tesi si inserisce nel dibattito attuale sulla relazione tra rappresentazione spaziale del tempo e attenzione-spaziale attraverso l’uso di una tecnica che modula l’attenzione-spaziale, ovvero, l’Adattamento Prismatico (AP). La prima parte è dedicata ai meccanismi sottostanti tale relazione. Abbiamo mostrato che spostando l’attenzione-spaziale con AP, verso un lato dello spazio, si ottiene una distorsione della rappresentazione di intervalli temporali, in accordo con il lato dello spostamento attenzionale. Questo avviene sia con stimoli visivi, sia con stimoli uditivi, nonostante la modalità uditiva non sia direttamente coinvolta nella procedura visuo-motoria di AP. Questo risultato ci ha suggerito che il codice spaziale utilizzato per rappresentare il tempo, è un meccanismo centrale che viene influenzato ad alti livelli della cognizione spaziale. La tesi prosegue con l’indagine delle aree corticali che mediano l’interazione spazio-tempo, attraverso metodi neuropsicologici, neurofisiologici e di neuroimmagine. In particolare abbiamo evidenziato che, le aree localizzate nell’emisfero destro, sono cruciali per l’elaborazione del tempo, mentre le aree localizzate nell’emisfero sinistro sono cruciali ai fini della procedura di AP e affinché AP abbia effetto sugli intervalli temporali. Infine, la tesi, è dedicata allo studio dei disturbi della rappresentazione spaziale del tempo. I risultati ci indicano che un deficit di attenzione-spaziale, dopo danno emisferico destro, provoca un deficit di rappresentazione spaziale del tempo, che si riflette negativamente sulla vita quotidiana dei pazienti. Particolarmente interessanti sono i risultati ottenuti mediante AP. Un trattamento con AP, efficace nel ridurre il deficit di attenzione-spaziale, riduce anche il deficit di rappresentazione spaziale del tempo, migliorando la qualità di vita dei pazienti.

Modelizzazione spazio-temporale delle dinamiche di uso del suolo ed analisi comparativa di differenti approcci predittivi. Uso integrato di SIG e telerilevamento nello studio dei processi di deforestazione nella regione La Joyanca in Peten, Guatemala

L’uso frequente dei modelli predittivi per l’analisi di sistemi complessi, naturali o artificiali, sta cambiando il tradizionale approccio alle problematiche ambientali e di rischio. Il continuo miglioramento delle capacità di elaborazione dei computer facilita l’utilizzo e la risoluzione di metodi numerici basati su una discretizzazione spazio-temporale che permette una modellizzazione predittiva di sistemi reali complessi, riproducendo l’evoluzione dei loro patterns spaziali ed calcolando il grado di precisione della simulazione. In questa tesi presentiamo una applicazione di differenti metodi predittivi (Geomatico, Reti Neurali, Land Cover Modeler e Dinamica EGO) in un’area test del Petén, Guatemala. Durante gli ultimi decenni questa regione, inclusa nella Riserva di Biosfera Maya, ha conosciuto una rapida crescita demografica ed un’incontrollata pressione sulle sue risorse naturali. L’area test puó essere suddivisa in sotto-regioni caratterizzate da differenti dinamiche di uso del suolo. Comprendere e quantificare queste differenze permette una migliore approssimazione del sistema reale; é inoltre necessario integrare tutti i parametri fisici e socio-economici, per una rappresentazione più completa della complessità dell’impatto antropico. Data l’assenza di informazioni dettagliate sull’area di studio, quasi tutti i dati sono stati ricavati dall’elaborazione di 11 immagini ETM+, TM e SPOT; abbiamo poi realizzato un’analisi multitemporale dei cambi uso del suolo passati e costruito l’input per alimentare i modelli predittivi. I dati del 1998 e 2000 sono stati usati per la fase di calibrazione per simulare i cambiamenti nella copertura terrestre del 2003, scelta come data di riferimento per la validazione dei risultati. Quest’ultima permette di evidenziare le qualità ed i limiti per ogni modello nelle differenti sub-regioni.

Numerical simulations of magma chamber dynamics at Campi Flegrei, and associated seismicity, deformation and gravity changes

Understanding the complex relationships between quantities measured by volcanic monitoring network and shallow magma processes is a crucial headway for the comprehension of volcanic processes and a more realistic evaluation of the associated hazard. This question is very relevant at Campi Flegrei, a volcanic quiescent caldera immediately north-west of Napoli (Italy). The system activity shows a high fumarole release and periodic ground slow movement (bradyseism) with high seismicity. This activity, with the high people density and the presence of military and industrial buildings, makes Campi Flegrei one of the areas with higher volcanic hazard in the world. In such a context my thesis has been focused on magma dynamics due to the refilling of shallow magma chambers, and on the geophysical signals detectable by seismic, deformative and gravimetric monitoring networks that are associated with this phenomenologies. Indeed, the refilling of magma chambers is a process frequently occurring just before a volcanic eruption; therefore, the faculty of identifying this dynamics by means of recorded signal analysis is important to evaluate the short term volcanic hazard. The space-time evolution of dynamics due to injection of new magma in the magma chamber has been studied performing numerical simulations with, and implementing additional features in, the code GALES (Longo et al., 2006), recently developed and still on the upgrade at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia in Pisa (Italy). GALES is a finite element code based on a physico-mathematical two dimensional, transient model able to treat fluids as multiphase homogeneous mixtures, compressible to incompressible. The fundamental equations of mass, momentum and energy balance are discretised both in time and space using the Galerkin Least-Squares and discontinuity-capturing stabilisation technique. The physical properties of the mixture are computed as a function of local conditions of magma composition, pressure and temperature.The model features enable to study a broad range of phenomenologies characterizing pre and sin-eruptive magma dynamics in a wide domain from the volcanic crater to deep magma feeding zones. The study of displacement field associated with the simulated fluid dynamics has been carried out with a numerical code developed by the Geophysical group at the University College Dublin (O’Brien and Bean, 2004b), with whom we started a very profitable collaboration. In this code, the seismic wave propagation in heterogeneous media with free surface (e.g. the Earth’s surface) is simulated using a discrete elastic lattice where particle interactions are controlled by the Hooke’s law. This method allows to consider medium heterogeneities and complex topography. The initial and boundary conditions for the simulations have been defined within a coordinate project (INGV-DPC 2004-06 V3_2 “Research on active volcanoes, precursors, scenarios, hazard and risk - Campi Flegrei”), to which this thesis contributes, and many researchers experienced on Campi Flegrei in volcanological, seismic, petrological, geochemical fields, etc. collaborate. Numerical simulations of magma and rock dynamis have been coupled as described in the thesis. The first part of the thesis consists of a parametric study aimed at understanding the eect of the presence in magma of carbon dioxide in magma in the convection dynamics. Indeed, the presence of this volatile was relevant in many Campi Flegrei eruptions, including some eruptions commonly considered as reference for a future activity of this volcano. A set of simulations considering an elliptical magma chamber, compositionally uniform, refilled from below by a magma with volatile content equal or dierent from that of the resident magma has been performed. To do this, a multicomponent non-ideal magma saturation model (Papale et al., 2006) that considers the simultaneous presence of CO2 and H2O, has been implemented in GALES. Results show that the presence of CO2 in the incoming magma increases its buoyancy force promoting convection ad mixing. The simulated dynamics produce pressure transients with frequency and amplitude in the sensitivity range of modern geophysical monitoring networks such as the one installed at Campi Flegrei . In the second part, simulations more related with the Campi Flegrei volcanic system have been performed. The simulated system has been defined on the basis of conditions consistent with the bulk of knowledge of Campi Flegrei and in particular of the Agnano-Monte Spina eruption (4100 B.P.), commonly considered as reference for a future high intensity eruption in this area. The magmatic system has been modelled as a long dyke refilling a small shallow magma chamber; magmas with trachytic and phonolitic composition and variable volatile content of H2O and CO2 have been considered. The simulations have been carried out changing the condition of magma injection, the system configuration (magma chamber geometry, dyke size) and the resident and refilling magma composition and volatile content, in order to study the influence of these factors on the simulated dynamics. Simulation results allow to follow each step of the gas-rich magma ascent in the denser magma, highlighting the details of magma convection and mixing. In particular, the presence of more CO2 in the deep magma results in more ecient and faster dynamics. Through this simulations the variation of the gravimetric field has been determined. Afterward, the space-time distribution of stress resulting from numerical simulations have been used as boundary conditions for the simulations of the displacement field imposed by the magmatic dynamics on rocks. The properties of the simulated domain (rock density, P and S wave velocities) have been based on data from literature on active and passive tomographic experiments, obtained through a collaboration with A. Zollo at the Dept. of Physics of the Federici II Univeristy in Napoli. The elasto-dynamics simulations allow to determine the variations of the space-time distribution of deformation and the seismic signal associated with the studied magmatic dynamics. In particular, results show that these dynamics induce deformations similar to those measured at Campi Flegrei and seismic signals with energies concentrated on the typical frequency bands observed in volcanic areas. The present work shows that an approach based on the solution of equations describing the physics of processes within a magmatic fluid and the surrounding rock system is able to recognise and describe the relationships between geophysical signals detectable on the surface and deep magma dynamics. Therefore, the results suggest that the combined study of geophysical data and informations from numerical simulations can allow in a near future a more ecient evaluation of the short term volcanic hazard.

Catalytic liquid- and gas-phase oxidations for the synthesis of intermediates and specialty chemicals: some examples of industrial relevance

Nowadays, it is clear that the target of creating a sustainable future for the next generations requires to re-think the industrial application of chemistry. It is also evident that more sustainable chemical processes may be economically convenient, in comparison with the conventional ones, because fewer by-products means lower costs for raw materials, for separation and for disposal treatments; but also it implies an increase of productivity and, as a consequence, smaller reactors can be used. In addition, an indirect gain could derive from the better public image of the company, marketing sustainable products or processes. In this context, oxidation reactions play a major role, being the tool for the production of huge quantities of chemical intermediates and specialties. Potentially, the impact of these productions on the environment could have been much worse than it is, if a continuous efforts hadn’t been spent to improve the technologies employed. Substantial technological innovations have driven the development of new catalytic systems, the improvement of reactions and process technologies, contributing to move the chemical industry in the direction of a more sustainable and ecological approach. The roadmap for the application of these concepts includes new synthetic strategies, alternative reactants, catalysts heterogenisation and innovative reactor configurations and process design. Actually, in order to implement all these ideas into real projects, the development of more efficient reactions is one primary target. Yield, selectivity and space-time yield are the right metrics for evaluating the reaction efficiency. In the case of catalytic selective oxidation, the control of selectivity has always been the principal issue, because the formation of total oxidation products (carbon oxides) is thermodynamically more favoured than the formation of the desired, partially oxidized compound. As a matter of fact, only in few oxidation reactions a total, or close to total, conversion is achieved, and usually the selectivity is limited by the formation of by-products or co-products, that often implies unfavourable process economics; moreover, sometimes the cost of the oxidant further penalizes the process. During my PhD work, I have investigated four reactions that are emblematic of the new approaches used in the chemical industry. In the Part A of my thesis, a new process aimed at a more sustainable production of menadione (vitamin K3) is described. The “greener” approach includes the use of hydrogen peroxide in place of chromate (from a stoichiometric oxidation to a catalytic oxidation), also avoiding the production of dangerous waste. Moreover, I have studied the possibility of using an heterogeneous catalytic system, able to efficiently activate hydrogen peroxide. Indeed, the overall process would be carried out in two different steps: the first is the methylation of 1-naphthol with methanol to yield 2-methyl-1-naphthol, the second one is the oxidation of the latter compound to menadione. The catalyst for this latter step, the reaction object of my investigation, consists of Nb2O5-SiO2 prepared with the sol-gel technique. The catalytic tests were first carried out under conditions that simulate the in-situ generation of hydrogen peroxide, that means using a low concentration of the oxidant. Then, experiments were carried out using higher hydrogen peroxide concentration. The study of the reaction mechanism was fundamental to get indications about the best operative conditions, and improve the selectivity to menadione. In the Part B, I explored the direct oxidation of benzene to phenol with hydrogen peroxide. The industrial process for phenol is the oxidation of cumene with oxygen, that also co-produces acetone. This can be considered a case of how economics could drive the sustainability issue; in fact, the new process allowing to obtain directly phenol, besides avoiding the co-production of acetone (a burden for phenol, because the market requirements for the two products are quite different), might be economically convenient with respect to the conventional process, if a high selectivity to phenol were obtained. Titanium silicalite-1 (TS-1) is the catalyst chosen for this reaction. Comparing the reactivity results obtained with some TS-1 samples having different chemical-physical properties, and analyzing in detail the effect of the more important reaction parameters, we could formulate some hypothesis concerning the reaction network and mechanism. Part C of my thesis deals with the hydroxylation of phenol to hydroquinone and catechol. This reaction is already industrially applied but, for economical reason, an improvement of the selectivity to the para di-hydroxilated compound and a decrease of the selectivity to the ortho isomer would be desirable. Also in this case, the catalyst used was the TS-1. The aim of my research was to find out a method to control the selectivity ratio between the two isomers, and finally to make the industrial process more flexible, in order to adapt the process performance in function of fluctuations of the market requirements. The reaction was carried out in both a batch stirred reactor and in a re-circulating fixed-bed reactor. In the first system, the effect of various reaction parameters on catalytic behaviour was investigated: type of solvent or co-solvent, and particle size. With the second reactor type, I investigated the possibility to use a continuous system, and the catalyst shaped in extrudates (instead of powder), in order to avoid the catalyst filtration step. Finally, part D deals with the study of a new process for the valorisation of glycerol, by means of transformation into valuable chemicals. This molecule is nowadays produced in big amount, being a co-product in biodiesel synthesis; therefore, it is considered a raw material from renewable resources (a bio-platform molecule). Initially, we tested the oxidation of glycerol in the liquid-phase, with hydrogen peroxide and TS-1. However, results achieved were not satisfactory. Then we investigated the gas-phase transformation of glycerol into acrylic acid, with the intermediate formation of acrolein; the latter can be obtained by dehydration of glycerol, and then can be oxidized into acrylic acid. Actually, the oxidation step from acrolein to acrylic acid is already optimized at an industrial level; therefore, we decided to investigate in depth the first step of the process. I studied the reactivity of heterogeneous acid catalysts based on sulphated zirconia. Tests were carried out both in aerobic and anaerobic conditions, in order to investigate the effect of oxygen on the catalyst deactivation rate (one main problem usually met in glycerol dehydration). Finally, I studied the reactivity of bifunctional systems, made of Keggin-type polyoxometalates, either alone or supported over sulphated zirconia, in this way combining the acid functionality (necessary for the dehydrative step) with the redox one (necessary for the oxidative step). In conclusion, during my PhD work I investigated reactions that apply the “green chemistry” rules and strategies; in particular, I studied new greener approaches for the synthesis of chemicals (Part A and Part B), the optimisation of reaction parameters to make the oxidation process more flexible (Part C), and the use of a bioplatform molecule for the synthesis of a chemical intermediate (Part D).

Characterization of geothermal reservoirs’ parameters by inverse problem resolution and geostatistical simulations

BTES (borehole thermal energy storage)systems exchange thermal energy by conduction with the surrounding ground through borehole materials. The spatial variability of the geological properties and the space-time variability of hydrogeological conditions affect the real power rate of heat exchangers and, consequently, the amount of energy extracted from / injected into the ground. For this reason, it is not an easy task to identify the underground thermal properties to use when designing. At the current state of technology, Thermal Response Test (TRT) is the in situ test for the characterization of ground thermal properties with the higher degree of accuracy, but it doesn’t fully solve the problem of characterizing the thermal properties of a shallow geothermal reservoir, simply because it characterizes only the neighborhood of the heat exchanger at hand and only for the test duration. Different analytical and numerical models exist for the characterization of shallow geothermal reservoir, but they are still inadequate and not exhaustive: more sophisticated models must be taken into account and a geostatistical approach is needed to tackle natural variability and estimates uncertainty. The approach adopted for reservoir characterization is the “inverse problem”, typical of oil&gas field analysis. Similarly, we create different realizations of thermal properties by direct sequential simulation and we find the best one fitting real production data (fluid temperature along time). The software used to develop heat production simulation is FEFLOW 5.4 (Finite Element subsurface FLOW system). A geostatistical reservoir model has been set up based on literature thermal properties data and spatial variability hypotheses, and a real TRT has been tested. Then we analyzed and used as well two other codes (SA-Geotherm and FV-Geotherm) which are two implementation of the same numerical model of FEFLOW (Al-Khoury model).

Luis Cernuda: la realizzazione del desiderio

Le traduzioni di Luis Cernuda, poeta spagnolo della Generazione del '27, da testi poetici di autori francesi, tedeschi ed inglesi, la cui scelta è dettata da ragioni di coerenza artistica, non hanno valore secondario rispetto alla produzione poetica autoriale. Nel presente studio si delinea l'uniformità del percorso creativo di Luis Cernuda nel ruolo duplice ed apparentemente contraddittorio di poeta-traduttore, attraverso un tracciato spazio-temporale, al contempo realistico e metaforico, che si svolge lungo gran parte della vita del misconosciuto poeta sivigliano. Ad una preliminare presentazione analitica del concetto di traduzione, della funzione che la stessa riveste nel genere letterario specifico della poesia e nell'attività creativa di Cernuda, segue l'analisi comparativa delle traduzioni cernudiane con le rispettive fonti straniere. L'argomento si svolge in tre capitoli successivi, organizzati rispettando lo svolgimento cronologico del percorso traduttorio cernudiano, svolto in parallelo alla produzione poetica personale. Il secondo capitolo verte sulla traduzione da testi poetici in francese. Il terzo capitolo, sul periodo immediatamente successivo agli anni della sperimentazione francese, analizza lo studio della poesia tedesca e della sperimentazione in traduzione. Tale incontro si propone anche come momento di scissione definitiva dalla lirica romanza, piuttosto esornativa, e di accostamento alla più essenziale lirica germanica. Il quarto capitolo raccoglie le versioni poetiche da autori inglesi, che si contraddistinguono per la grande somiglianza alla poesia di Cernuda nelle scelte contenutistico-formali. Le conclusioni vertono sulla coesione perseguita nel tradurre, per cui contenuto e forma acquisiscono pari importanza nella “ricreazione poetica” realizzata da Cernuda.

Orchestration of multiscale model for computational oncology

Cancer is a challenging disease that involves multiple types of biological interactions in different time and space scales. Often computational modelling has been facing problems that, in the current technology level, is impracticable to represent in a single space-time continuum. To handle this sort of problems, complex orchestrations of multiscale models is frequently done. PRIMAGE is a large EU project that aims to support personalized childhood cancer diagnosis and prognosis. The goal is to do so predicting the growth of the solid tumour using multiscale in-silico technologies. The project proposes an open cloud-based platform to support decision making in the clinical management of paediatric cancers. The orchestration of predictive models is in general complex and would require a software framework that support and facilitate such task. The present work, proposes the development of an updated framework, referred herein as the VPH-HFv3, as a part of the PRIMAGE project. This framework, a complete re-writing with respect to the previous versions, aims to orchestrate several models, which are in concurrent development, using an architecture as simple as possible, easy to maintain and with high reusability. This sort of problem generally requires unfeasible execution times. To overcome this problem was developed a strategy of particularisation, which maps the upper-scale model results into a smaller number and homogenisation which does the inverse way and analysed the accuracy of this approach.

On Reasonable Space and Time Cost Models for the λ-Calculus

Slot and van Emde Boas Invariance Thesis states that a time (respectively, space) cost model is reasonable for a computational model C if there are mutual simulations between Turing machines and C such that the overhead is polynomial in time (respectively, linear in space). The rationale is that under the Invariance Thesis, complexity classes such as LOGSPACE, P, PSPACE, become robust, i.e. machine independent. In this dissertation, we want to find out if it possible to define a reasonable space cost model for the lambda-calculus, the paradigmatic model for functional programming languages. We start by considering an unusual evaluation mechanism for the lambda-calculus, based on Girard's Geometry of Interaction, that was conjectured to be the key ingredient to obtain a space reasonable cost model. By a fine complexity analysis of this schema, based on new variants of non-idempotent intersection types, we disprove this conjecture. Then, we change the target of our analysis. We consider a variant over Krivine's abstract machine, a standard evaluation mechanism for the call-by-name lambda-calculus, optimized for space complexity, and implemented without any pointer. A fine analysis of the execution of (a refined version of) the encoding of Turing machines into the lambda-calculus allows us to conclude that the space consumed by this machine is indeed a reasonable space cost model. In particular, for the first time we are able to measure also sub-linear space complexities. Moreover, we transfer this result to the call-by-value case. Finally, we provide also an intersection type system that characterizes compositionally this new reasonable space measure. This is done through a minimal, yet non trivial, modification of the original de Carvalho type system.

Non-Markovian stochastic processes and their applications: from anomalous diffusion to time series analysis

This work provides a forward step in the study and comprehension of the relationships between stochastic processes and a certain class of integral-partial differential equation, which can be used in order to model anomalous diffusion and transport in statistical physics. In the first part, we brought the reader through the fundamental notions of probability and stochastic processes, stochastic integration and stochastic differential equations as well. In particular, within the study of H-sssi processes, we focused on fractional Brownian motion (fBm) and its discrete-time increment process, the fractional Gaussian noise (fGn), which provide examples of non-Markovian Gaussian processes. The fGn, together with stationary FARIMA processes, is widely used in the modeling and estimation of long-memory, or long-range dependence (LRD). Time series manifesting long-range dependence, are often observed in nature especially in physics, meteorology, climatology, but also in hydrology, geophysics, economy and many others. We deepely studied LRD, giving many real data examples, providing statistical analysis and introducing parametric methods of estimation. Then, we introduced the theory of fractional integrals and derivatives, which indeed turns out to be very appropriate for studying and modeling systems with long-memory properties. After having introduced the basics concepts, we provided many examples and applications. For instance, we investigated the relaxation equation with distributed order time-fractional derivatives, which describes models characterized by a strong memory component and can be used to model relaxation in complex systems, which deviates from the classical exponential Debye pattern. Then, we focused in the study of generalizations of the standard diffusion equation, by passing through the preliminary study of the fractional forward drift equation. Such generalizations have been obtained by using fractional integrals and derivatives of distributed orders. In order to find a connection between the anomalous diffusion described by these equations and the long-range dependence, we introduced and studied the generalized grey Brownian motion (ggBm), which is actually a parametric class of H-sssi processes, which have indeed marginal probability density function evolving in time according to a partial integro-differential equation of fractional type. The ggBm is of course Non-Markovian. All around the work, we have remarked many times that, starting from a master equation of a probability density function f(x,t), it is always possible to define an equivalence class of stochastic processes with the same marginal density function f(x,t). All these processes provide suitable stochastic models for the starting equation. Studying the ggBm, we just focused on a subclass made up of processes with stationary increments. The ggBm has been defined canonically in the so called grey noise space. However, we have been able to provide a characterization notwithstanding the underline probability space. We also pointed out that that the generalized grey Brownian motion is a direct generalization of a Gaussian process and in particular it generalizes Brownain motion and fractional Brownain motion as well. Finally, we introduced and analyzed a more general class of diffusion type equations related to certain non-Markovian stochastic processes. We started from the forward drift equation, which have been made non-local in time by the introduction of a suitable chosen memory kernel K(t). The resulting non-Markovian equation has been interpreted in a natural way as the evolution equation of the marginal density function of a random time process l(t). We then consider the subordinated process Y(t)=X(l(t)) where X(t) is a Markovian diffusion. The corresponding time-evolution of the marginal density function of Y(t) is governed by a non-Markovian Fokker-Planck equation which involves the same memory kernel K(t). We developed several applications and derived the exact solutions. Moreover, we considered different stochastic models for the given equations, providing path simulations.

Troposphere Calibration Techniques for Deep Space Probe Tracking

Ground-based Earth troposphere calibration systems play an important role in planetary exploration, especially to carry out radio science experiments aimed at the estimation of planetary gravity fields. In these experiments, the main observable is the spacecraft (S/C) range rate, measured from the Doppler shift of an electromagnetic wave transmitted from ground, received by the spacecraft and coherently retransmitted back to ground. If the solar corona and interplanetary plasma noise is already removed from Doppler data, the Earth troposphere remains one of the main error sources in tracking observables. Current Earth media calibration systems at NASA’s Deep Space Network (DSN) stations are based upon a combination of weather data and multidirectional, dual frequency GPS measurements acquired at each station complex. In order to support Cassini’s cruise radio science experiments, a new generation of media calibration systems were developed, driven by the need to achieve the goal of an end-to-end Allan deviation of the radio link in the order of 3×〖10〗^(-15) at 1000 s integration time. The future ESA’s Bepi Colombo mission to Mercury carries scientific instrumentation for radio science experiments (a Ka-band transponder and a three-axis accelerometer) which, in combination with the S/C telecommunication system (a X/X/Ka transponder) will provide the most advanced tracking system ever flown on an interplanetary probe. Current error budget for MORE (Mercury Orbiter Radioscience Experiment) allows the residual uncalibrated troposphere to contribute with a value of 8×〖10〗^(-15) to the two-way Allan deviation at 1000 s integration time. The current standard ESA/ESTRACK calibration system is based on a combination of surface meteorological measurements and mathematical algorithms, capable to reconstruct the Earth troposphere path delay, leaving an uncalibrated component of about 1-2% of the total delay. In order to satisfy the stringent MORE requirements, the short time-scale variations of the Earth troposphere water vapor content must be calibrated at ESA deep space antennas (DSA) with more precise and stable instruments (microwave radiometers). In parallel to this high performance instruments, ESA ground stations should be upgraded to media calibration systems at least capable to calibrate both troposphere path delay components (dry and wet) at sub-centimetre level, in order to reduce S/C navigation uncertainties. The natural choice is to provide a continuous troposphere calibration by processing GNSS data acquired at each complex by dual frequency receivers already installed for station location purposes. The work presented here outlines the troposphere calibration technique to support both Deep Space probe navigation and radio science experiments. After an introduction to deep space tracking techniques, observables and error sources, in Chapter 2 the troposphere path delay is widely investigated, reporting the estimation techniques and the state of the art of the ESA and NASA troposphere calibrations. Chapter 3 deals with an analysis of the status and the performances of the NASA Advanced Media Calibration (AMC) system referred to the Cassini data analysis. Chapter 4 describes the current release of a developed GNSS software (S/W) to estimate the troposphere calibration to be used for ESA S/C navigation purposes. During the development phase of the S/W a test campaign has been undertaken in order to evaluate the S/W performances. A description of the campaign and the main results are reported in Chapter 5. Chapter 6 presents a preliminary analysis of microwave radiometers to be used to support radio science experiments. The analysis has been carried out considering radiometric measurements of the ESA/ESTEC instruments installed in Cabauw (NL) and compared with the requirements of MORE. Finally, Chapter 7 summarizes the results obtained and defines some key technical aspects to be evaluated and taken into account for the development phase of future instrumentation.

Definition, realization and evaluation of a software reference architecture for use in space applications

A recent initiative of the European Space Agency (ESA) aims at the definition and adoption of a software reference architecture for use in on-board software of future space missions. Our PhD project placed in the context of that effort. At the outset of our work we gathered all the industrial needs relevant to ESA and all the main European space stakeholders and we were able to consolidate a set of technical high-level requirements for the fulfillment of them. The conclusion we reached from that phase confirmed that the adoption of a software reference architecture was indeed the best solution for the fulfillment of the high-level requirements. The software reference architecture we set on building rests on four constituents: (i) a component model, to design the software as a composition of individually verifiable and reusable software units; (ii) a computational model, to ensure that the architectural description of the software is statically analyzable; (iii) a programming model, to ensure that the implementation of the design entities conforms with the semantics, the assumptions and the constraints of the computational model; (iv) a conforming execution platform, to actively preserve at run time the properties asserted by static analysis. The nature, feasibility and fitness of constituents (ii), (iii) and (iv), were already proved by the author in an international project that preceded the commencement of the PhD work. The core of the PhD project was therefore centered on the design and prototype implementation of constituent (i), a component model. Our proposed component model is centered on: (i) rigorous separation of concerns, achieved with the support for design views and by careful allocation of concerns to the dedicated software entities; (ii) the support for specification and model-based analysis of extra-functional properties; (iii) the inclusion space-specific concerns.

Algorithms for UAS insertion in civil air space

One of the most interesting challenge of the next years will be the Air Space Systems automation. This process will involve different aspects as the Air Traffic Management, the Aircrafts and Airport Operations and the Guidance and Navigation Systems. The use of UAS (Uninhabited Aerial System) for civil mission will be one of the most important steps in this automation process. In civil air space, Air Traffic Controllers (ATC) manage the air traffic ensuring that a minimum separation between the controlled aircrafts is always provided. For this purpose ATCs use several operative avoidance techniques like holding patterns or rerouting. The use of UAS in these context will require the definition of strategies for a common management of piloted and piloted air traffic that allow the UAS to self separate. As a first employment in civil air space we consider a UAS surveillance mission that consists in departing from a ground base, taking pictures over a set of mission targets and coming back to the same ground base. During all mission a set of piloted aircrafts fly in the same airspace and thus the UAS has to self separate using the ATC avoidance as anticipated. We consider two objective, the first consists in the minimization of the air traffic impact over the mission, the second consists in the minimization of the impact of the mission over the air traffic. A particular version of the well known Travelling Salesman Problem (TSP) called Time-Dependant-TSP has been studied to deal with traffic problems in big urban areas. Its basic idea consists in a cost of the route between two clients depending on the period of the day in which it is crossed. Our thesis supports that such idea can be applied to the air traffic too using a convenient time horizon compatible with aircrafts operations. The cost of a UAS sub-route will depend on the air traffic that it will meet starting such route in a specific moment and consequently on the avoidance maneuver that it will use to avoid that conflict. The conflict avoidance is a topic that has been hardly developed in past years using different approaches. In this thesis we purpose a new approach based on the use of ATC operative techniques that makes it possible both to model the UAS problem using a TDTSP framework both to use an Air Traffic Management perspective. Starting from this kind of mission, the problem of the UAS insertion in civil air space is formalized as the UAS Routing Problem (URP). For this reason we introduce a new structure called Conflict Graph that makes it possible to model the avoidance maneuvers and to define the arc cost function of the departing time. Two Integer Linear Programming formulations of the problem are proposed. The first is based on a TDTSP formulation that, unfortunately, is weaker then the TSP formulation. Thus a new formulation based on a TSP variation that uses specific penalty to model the holdings is proposed. Different algorithms are presented: exact algorithms, simple heuristics used as Upper Bounds on the number of time steps used, and metaheuristic algorithms as Genetic Algorithm and Simulated Annealing. Finally an air traffic scenario has been simulated using real air traffic data in order to test our algorithms. Graphic Tools have been used to represent the Milano Linate air space and its air traffic during different days. Such data have been provided by ENAV S.p.A (Italian Agency for Air Navigation Services).

Sviluppo di un sistema miniaturizzato per il controllo real-time di assetto di nano e microsatelliti

Microsatelliti e nanosatelliti, come ad esempio i Cubesat, sono carenti di sistemi integrati di controllo d’assetto e di manovra orbitale. Lo scopo di questa tesi è stato quello di realizzare un sistema compatibile con Cubesat di una unità, completo di attuatori magnetici e attuatori meccanici, comprendente tutti i sensori e l’elettronica necessaria per il suo funzionamento, creando un dispositivo totalmente indipendente dal veicolo su cui è installato, capace di funzionare sia autonomamente che ricevendo comandi da terra. Nella tesi sono descritte le campagne di simulazioni numeriche effettuate per validare le scelte tecnologiche effettuate, le fasi di sviluppo dell’elettronica e della meccanica, i test sui prototipi realizzati e il funzionamento del sistema finale. Una integrazione così estrema dei componenti può implicare delle interferenze tra un dispositivo e l’altro, come nel caso dei magnetotorquer e dei magnetometri. Sono stati quindi studiati e valutati gli effetti della loro interazione, verificandone l’entità e la validità del progetto. Poiché i componenti utilizzati sono tutti di basso costo e di derivazione terrestre, è stata effettuata una breve introduzione teorica agli effetti dell’ambiente spaziale sull’elettronica, per poi descrivere un sistema fault-tolerant basato su nuove teorie costruttive. Questo sistema è stato realizzato e testato, verificando così la possibilità di realizzare un controller affidabile e resistente all’ambiente spaziale per il sistema di controllo d’assetto. Sono state infine analizzate alcune possibili versioni avanzate del sistema, delineandone i principali aspetti progettuali, come ad esempio l’integrazione di GPS e l’implementazione di funzioni di determinazione d’assetto sfruttando i sensori presenti a bordo.

Innovative architecture of on-board and on-ground radio systems for space communication

The radio communication system is one of the most critical system of the overall satellite platform: it often represents the only way of communication, between a spacecraft and the Ground Segment or among a constellation of satellites. This thesis focuses on specific innovative architectures for on-board and on-ground radio systems. In particular, this work is an integral part of a space program started in 2004 at the University of Bologna, Forlì campus, which led to the completion of the microsatellite ALMASat-1, successfully launched on-board the VEGA maiden flight. The success of this program led to the development of a second microsatellite, named ALMASat-EO, a three-axis stabilized microsatellite able to capture images of the Earth surface. Therefore, the first objective of this study was focused on the investigation of an innovative, efficient and low cost architecture for on-board radio communication systems. The TT&C system and the high data rate transmitter for images downlink design and realization are thoroughly described in this work, together with the development of the embedded hardware and the adopted antenna systems. Moreover, considering the increasing interest in the development of constellations of microsatellite, in particular those flying in close formations, a careful analysis has been carried out for the development of innovative communication protocols for inter-satellite links. Furthermore, in order to investigate the system aspects of space communications, a study has been carried out at ESOC having as objective the design, implementation and test of two experimental devices for the enhancement of the ESA GS. Thus, a significant portion of this thesis is dedicated to the description of the results of a method for improving the phase stability of GS radio frequency equipments by means of real-time phase compensation and a new way to perform two antennas arraying tracking using already existing ESA tracking stations facilities.