Elastic Propagation in random media: applications to the imaging of volcano structures

High-frequency seismograms contain features that reflect the random inhomogeneities of the earth. In this work I use an imaging method to locate the high contrast small- scale heterogeneity respect to the background earth medium. This method was first introduced by Nishigami (1991) and than applied to different volcanic and tectonically active areas (Nishigami, 1997, Nishigami, 2000, Nishigami, 2006). The scattering imaging method is applied to two volcanic areas: Campi Flegrei and Mt. Vesuvius. Volcanic and seismological active areas are often characterized by complex velocity structures, due to the presence of rocks with different elastic properties. I introduce some modifications to the original method in order to make it suitable for small and highly complex media. In particular, for very complex media the single scattering approximation assumed by Nishigami (1991) is not applicable as the mean free path becomes short. The multiple scattering or diffusive approximation become closer to the reality. In this thesis, differently from the ordinary Nishigami’s method (Nishigami, 1991), I use the mean of the recorded coda envelope as reference curve and calculate the variations from this average envelope. In this way I implicitly do not assume any particular scattering regime for the "average" scattered radiation, whereas I consider the variations as due to waves that are singularly scattered from the strongest heterogeneities. The imaging method is applied to a relatively small area (20 x 20 km), this choice being justified by the small length of the analyzed codas of the low magnitude earthquakes. I apply the unmodified Nishigami’s method to the volcanic area of Campi Flegrei and compare the results with the other tomographies done in the same area. The scattering images, obtained with frequency waves around 18 Hz, show the presence of high scatterers in correspondence with the submerged caldera rim in the southern part of the Pozzuoli bay. Strong scattering is also found below the Solfatara crater, characterized by the presence of densely fractured, fluid-filled rocks and by a strong thermal anomaly. The modified Nishigami’s technique is applied to the Mt. Vesuvius area. Results show a low scattering area just below the central cone and a high scattering area around it. The high scattering zone seems to be due to the contrast between the high rigidity body located beneath the crater and the low rigidity materials located around it. The central low scattering area overlaps the hydrothermal reservoirs located below the central cone. An interpretation of the results in terms of geological properties of the medium is also supplied, aiming to find a correspondence of the scattering properties and the geological nature of the material. A complementary result reported in this thesis is that the strong heterogeneity of the volcanic medium create a phenomenon called "coda localization". It has been verified that the shape of the seismograms recorded from the stations located at the top of the volcanic edifice of Mt. Vesuvius is different from the shape of the seismograms recorded at the bottom. This behavior is justified by the consideration that the coda energy is not uniformly distributed within a region surrounding the source for great lapse time.

La città che cambia: la diffusione urbana. Mobilità residenziale e stili di vita emergenti nel Comune di Argelato (Bologna)

Il presente lavoro di ricerca ha per oggetto il tema della diffusione urbana. Dopo una breve ricostruzione delle varie definizioni presenti in letteratura sul fenomeno - sia qualitative che quantitative - e una descrizione dei limiti di volta in volta presenti all’interno di tali definizioni, si procede con la descrizione dell’evoluzione storica dello sprawl urbano all’interno del mondo occidentale. Una volta definito e contestualizzato storicamente l’oggetto della ricerca, ne vengono analizzate le cause e il complesso sistema di conseguenze che tale fenomeno urbano porta con sé. Successivamente vengono presentate le principali teorie sociologiche attraverso le quali può essere interpretato il fenomeno dello sprawl urbano e vengono descritte le varie forme con cui si può esprimere lo sprawl urbano: non esiste infatti uniformità tra i vari paesaggi suburbani, ma una grande diversità interna alle varie forme in cui si manifesta il fenomeno della dispersione insediativa. Se quanto finora esaminato, soprattutto a livello bibliografico, è riconducibile alla letteratura nordamericana, arrivati a questo punto del lavoro, l’attenzione viene spostata sul continente europeo, prendendo in esame l’emergere del periurbano all’interno del nostro continente e tentando di descrivere sia le contiguità che le differenze tra il fenomeno dell’urban sprawl e quello del periurbano. Infine, adottando un procedimento “ad imbuto”, il lavoro si sofferma sulla situazione del nostro paese in merito alla tematica in questione. L’ultima sezione della ricerca prevede una parte di lavoro empirico. Se, come è emerso nel quadro teorico, molti sono gli elementi che caratterizzano il tema dello sprawl urbano e del periurbano, si è voluto andare a verificare se, ed eventualmente quali, degli elementi descritti, sono presenti in un’area ben delimitata del territorio bolognese, per cercare di capire se si possa parlare di un “periurbano bolognese” e quali caratteristiche esso presenti.

Methodologies for Synthesizable Programmable Devices based on Multi-Stage Switching Networks

Nowadays the rise of non-recurring engineering (NRE) costs associated with complexity is becoming a major factor in SoC design, limiting both scaling opportunities and the flexibility advantages offered by the integration of complex computational units. The introduction of embedded programmable elements can represent an appealing solution, able both to guarantee the desired flexibility and upgradabilty and to widen the SoC market. In particular embedded FPGA (eFPGA) cores can provide bit-level optimization for those applications which benefits from synthesis, paying on the other side in terms of performance penalties and area overhead with respect to standard cell ASIC implementations. In this scenario this thesis proposes a design methodology for a synthesizable programmable device designed to be embedded in a SoC. A soft-core embedded FPGA (eFPGA) is hence presented and analyzed in terms of the opportunities given by a fully synthesizable approach, following an implementation flow based on Standard-Cell methodology. A key point of the proposed eFPGA template is that it adopts a Multi-Stage Switching Network (MSSN) as the foundation of the programmable interconnects, since it can be efficiently synthesized and optimized through a standard cell based implementation flow, ensuring at the same time an intrinsic congestion-free network topology. The evaluation of the flexibility potentialities of the eFPGA has been performed using different technology libraries (STMicroelectronics CMOS 65nm and BCD9s 0.11μm) through a design space exploration in terms of area-speed-leakage tradeoffs, enabled by the full synthesizability of the template. Since the most relevant disadvantage of the adopted soft approach, compared to a hardcore, is represented by a performance overhead increase, the eFPGA analysis has been made targeting small area budgets. The generation of the configuration bitstream has been obtained thanks to the implementation of a custom CAD flow environment, and has allowed functional verification and performance evaluation through an application-aware analysis.

Seismic sequences analysis for estimation of earthquake source parameters: corner frequency, stress drop, and seismic moment observations

The present study has been carried out with the following objectives: i) To investigate the attributes of source parameters of local and regional earthquakes; ii) To estimate, as accurately as possible, M0, fc, Δσ and their standard errors to infer their relationship with source size; iii) To quantify high-frequency earthquake ground motion and to study the source scaling. This work is based on observational data of micro, small and moderate -earthquakes for three selected seismic sequences, namely Parkfield (CA, USA), Maule (Chile) and Ferrara (Italy). For the Parkfield seismic sequence (CA), a data set of 757 (42 clusters) repeating micro-earthquakes (0 ≤ MW ≤ 2), collected using borehole High Resolution Seismic Network (HRSN), have been analyzed and interpreted. We used the coda methodology to compute spectral ratios to obtain accurate values of fc , Δσ, and M0 for three target clusters (San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Hawaii) of our data. We also performed a general regression on peak ground velocities to obtain reliable seismic spectra of all earthquakes. For the Maule seismic sequence, a data set of 172 aftershocks of the 2010 MW 8.8 earthquake (3.7 ≤ MW ≤ 6.2), recorded by more than 100 temporary broadband stations, have been analyzed and interpreted to quantify high-frequency earthquake ground motion in this subduction zone. We completely calibrated the excitation and attenuation of the ground motion in Central Chile. For the Ferrara sequence, we calculated moment tensor solutions for 20 events from MW 5.63 (the largest main event occurred on May 20 2012), down to MW 3.2 by a 1-D velocity model for the crust beneath the Pianura Padana, using all the geophysical and geological information available for the area. The PADANIA model allowed a numerical study on the characteristics of the ground motion in the thick sediments of the flood plain.

Multiple testing in spatial epidemiology: a Bayesian approach

In this work we aim to propose a new approach for preliminary epidemiological studies on Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMR) collected in many spatial regions. A preliminary study on SMRs aims to formulate hypotheses to be investigated via individual epidemiological studies that avoid bias carried on by aggregated analyses. Starting from collecting disease counts and calculating expected disease counts by means of reference population disease rates, in each area an SMR is derived as the MLE under the Poisson assumption on each observation. Such estimators have high standard errors in small areas, i.e. where the expected count is low either because of the low population underlying the area or the rarity of the disease under study. Disease mapping models and other techniques for screening disease rates among the map aiming to detect anomalies and possible high-risk areas have been proposed in literature according to the classic and the Bayesian paradigm. Our proposal is approaching this issue by a decision-oriented method, which focus on multiple testing control, without however leaving the preliminary study perspective that an analysis on SMR indicators is asked to. We implement the control of the FDR, a quantity largely used to address multiple comparisons problems in the eld of microarray data analysis but which is not usually employed in disease mapping. Controlling the FDR means providing an estimate of the FDR for a set of rejected null hypotheses. The small areas issue arises diculties in applying traditional methods for FDR estimation, that are usually based only on the p-values knowledge (Benjamini and Hochberg, 1995; Storey, 2003). Tests evaluated by a traditional p-value provide weak power in small areas, where the expected number of disease cases is small. Moreover tests cannot be assumed as independent when spatial correlation between SMRs is expected, neither they are identical distributed when population underlying the map is heterogeneous. The Bayesian paradigm oers a way to overcome the inappropriateness of p-values based methods. Another peculiarity of the present work is to propose a hierarchical full Bayesian model for FDR estimation in testing many null hypothesis of absence of risk.We will use concepts of Bayesian models for disease mapping, referring in particular to the Besag York and Mollié model (1991) often used in practice for its exible prior assumption on the risks distribution across regions. The borrowing of strength between prior and likelihood typical of a hierarchical Bayesian model takes the advantage of evaluating a singular test (i.e. a test in a singular area) by means of all observations in the map under study, rather than just by means of the singular observation. This allows to improve the power test in small areas and addressing more appropriately the spatial correlation issue that suggests that relative risks are closer in spatially contiguous regions. The proposed model aims to estimate the FDR by means of the MCMC estimated posterior probabilities b i's of the null hypothesis (absence of risk) for each area. An estimate of the expected FDR conditional on data (\FDR) can be calculated in any set of b i's relative to areas declared at high-risk (where thenull hypothesis is rejected) by averaging the b i's themselves. The\FDR can be used to provide an easy decision rule for selecting high-risk areas, i.e. selecting as many as possible areas such that the\FDR is non-lower than a prexed value; we call them\FDR based decision (or selection) rules. The sensitivity and specicity of such rule depend on the accuracy of the FDR estimate, the over-estimation of FDR causing a loss of power and the under-estimation of FDR producing a loss of specicity. Moreover, our model has the interesting feature of still being able to provide an estimate of relative risk values as in the Besag York and Mollié model (1991). A simulation study to evaluate the model performance in FDR estimation accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the decision rule, and goodness of estimation of relative risks, was set up. We chose a real map from which we generated several spatial scenarios whose counts of disease vary according to the spatial correlation degree, the size areas, the number of areas where the null hypothesis is true and the risk level in the latter areas. In summarizing simulation results we will always consider the FDR estimation in sets constituted by all b i's selected lower than a threshold t. We will show graphs of the\FDR and the true FDR (known by simulation) plotted against a threshold t to assess the FDR estimation. Varying the threshold we can learn which FDR values can be accurately estimated by the practitioner willing to apply the model (by the closeness between\FDR and true FDR). By plotting the calculated sensitivity and specicity (both known by simulation) vs the\FDR we can check the sensitivity and specicity of the corresponding\FDR based decision rules. For investigating the over-smoothing level of relative risk estimates we will compare box-plots of such estimates in high-risk areas (known by simulation), obtained by both our model and the classic Besag York Mollié model. All the summary tools are worked out for all simulated scenarios (in total 54 scenarios). Results show that FDR is well estimated (in the worst case we get an overestimation, hence a conservative FDR control) in small areas, low risk levels and spatially correlated risks scenarios, that are our primary aims. In such scenarios we have good estimates of the FDR for all values less or equal than 0.10. The sensitivity of\FDR based decision rules is generally low but specicity is high. In such scenario the use of\FDR = 0:05 or\FDR = 0:10 based selection rule can be suggested. In cases where the number of true alternative hypotheses (number of true high-risk areas) is small, also FDR = 0:15 values are well estimated, and \FDR = 0:15 based decision rules gains power maintaining an high specicity. On the other hand, in non-small areas and non-small risk level scenarios the FDR is under-estimated unless for very small values of it (much lower than 0.05); this resulting in a loss of specicity of a\FDR = 0:05 based decision rule. In such scenario\FDR = 0:05 or, even worse,\FDR = 0:1 based decision rules cannot be suggested because the true FDR is actually much higher. As regards the relative risk estimation, our model achieves almost the same results of the classic Besag York Molliè model. For this reason, our model is interesting for its ability to perform both the estimation of relative risk values and the FDR control, except for non-small areas and large risk level scenarios. A case of study is nally presented to show how the method can be used in epidemiology.

The rupture process of recent tsunamigenic earthquakes by geophysical data inversion

Subduction zones are the favorite places to generate tsunamigenic earthquakes, where friction between oceanic and continental plates causes the occurrence of a strong seismicity. The topics and the methodologies discussed in this thesis are focussed to the understanding of the rupture process of the seismic sources of great earthquakes that generate tsunamis. The tsunamigenesis is controlled by several kinematical characteristic of the parent earthquake, as the focal mechanism, the depth of the rupture, the slip distribution along the fault area and by the mechanical properties of the source zone. Each of these factors plays a fundamental role in the tsunami generation. Therefore, inferring the source parameters of tsunamigenic earthquakes is crucial to understand the generation of the consequent tsunami and so to mitigate the risk along the coasts. The typical way to proceed when we want to gather information regarding the source process is to have recourse to the inversion of geophysical data that are available. Tsunami data, moreover, are useful to constrain the portion of the fault area that extends offshore, generally close to the trench that, on the contrary, other kinds of data are not able to constrain. In this thesis I have discussed the rupture process of some recent tsunamigenic events, as inferred by means of an inverse method. I have presented the 2003 Tokachi-Oki (Japan) earthquake (Mw 8.1). In this study the slip distribution on the fault has been inferred by inverting tsunami waveform, GPS, and bottom-pressure data. The joint inversion of tsunami and geodetic data has revealed a much better constrain for the slip distribution on the fault rather than the separate inversions of single datasets. Then we have studied the earthquake occurred on 2007 in southern Sumatra (Mw 8.4). By inverting several tsunami waveforms, both in the near and in the far field, we have determined the slip distribution and the mean rupture velocity along the causative fault. Since the largest patch of slip was concentrated on the deepest part of the fault, this is the likely reason for the small tsunami waves that followed the earthquake, pointing out how much the depth of the rupture plays a crucial role in controlling the tsunamigenesis. Finally, we have presented a new rupture model for the great 2004 Sumatra earthquake (Mw 9.2). We have performed the joint inversion of tsunami waveform, GPS and satellite altimetry data, to infer the slip distribution, the slip direction, and the rupture velocity on the fault. Furthermore, in this work we have presented a novel method to estimate, in a self-consistent way, the average rigidity of the source zone. The estimation of the source zone rigidity is important since it may play a significant role in the tsunami generation and, particularly for slow earthquakes, a low rigidity value is sometimes necessary to explain how a relatively low seismic moment earthquake may generate significant tsunamis; this latter point may be relevant for explaining the mechanics of the tsunami earthquakes, one of the open issues in present day seismology. The investigation of these tsunamigenic earthquakes has underlined the importance to use a joint inversion of different geophysical data to determine the rupture characteristics. The results shown here have important implications for the implementation of new tsunami warning systems – particularly in the near-field – the improvement of the current ones, and furthermore for the planning of the inundation maps for tsunami-hazard assessment along the coastal area.

Controllo dell'atto di prensione: coinvolgimento dell'area V6A nell'orientamento del polso

Prehension in an act of coordinated reaching and grasping. The reaching component is concerned with bringing the hand to object to be grasped (transport phase); the grasping component refers to the shaping of the hand according to the object features (grasping phase) (Jeannerod, 1981). Reaching and grasping involve different muscles, proximal and distal muscles respectively, and are controlled by different parietofrontal circuit (Jeannerod et al., 1995): a medial circuit, involving area of superior parietal lobule and dorsal premotor area 6 (PMd) (dorsomedial visual stream), is mainly concerned with reaching; a lateral circuit, involving the inferior parietal lobule and ventral premotor area 6 (PMv) (dorsolateral visual stream), with grasping. Area V6A is located in the caudalmost part of the superior parietal lobule, so it belongs to the dorsomedial visual stream; it contains neurons sensitive to visual stimuli (Galletti et al. 1993, 1996, 1999) as well as cells sensitive to the direction of gaze (Galletti et al. 1995) and cells showing saccade-related activity (Nakamura et al. 1999; Kutz et al. 2003). Area V6A contains also arm-reaching neurons likely involved in the control of the direction of the arm during movements towards objects in the peripersonal space (Galletti et al. 1997; Fattori et al. 2001). The present results confirm this finding and demonstrate that during the reach-to-grasp the V6A neurons are also modulated by the orientation of the wrist. Experiments were approved by the Bioethical Committee of the University of Bologna and were performed in accordance with National laws on care and use of laboratory animals and with the European Communities Council Directive of 24th November 1986 (86/609/EEC), recently revised by the Council of Europe guidelines (Appendix A of Convention ETS 123). Experiments were performed in two awake Macaca fascicularis. Each monkey was trained to sit in a primate chair with the head restrained to perform reaching and grasping arm movements in complete darkness while gazing a small fixation point. The object to be grasped was a handle that could have different orientation. We recorded neural activity from 163 neurons of the anterior parietal sulcus; 116/163 (71%) neurons were modulated by the reach-to-grasp task during the execution of the forward movements toward the target (epoch MOV), 111/163 (68%) during the pulling of the handle (epoch HOLD) and 102/163 during the execution of backward movements (epoch M2) (t_test, p ≤ 0.05). About the 45% of the tested cells turned out to be sensitive to the orientation of the handle (one way ANOVA, p ≤ 0.05). To study how the distal components of the movement, such as the hand preshaping during the reaching of the handle, could influence the neuronal discharge, we compared the neuronal activity during the reaching movements towards the same spatial location in reach-to-point and reach-to-grasp tasks. Both tasks required proximal arm movements; only the reach-to-grasp task required distal movements to orient the wrist and to shape the hand to grasp the handle. The 56% of V6A cells showed significant differences in the neural discharge (one way ANOVA, p ≤ 0.05) between the reach-to-point and the reach-to-grasp tasks during MOV, 54% during HOLD and 52% during M2. These data show that reaching and grasping are processed by the same population of neurons, providing evidence that the coordination of reaching and grasping takes place much earlier than previously thought, i.e., in the parieto-occipital cortex. The data here reported are in agreement with results of lesions to the medial posterior parietal cortex in both monkeys and humans, and with recent imaging data in humans, all of them indicating a functional coupling in the control of reaching and grasping by the medial parietofrontal circuit.

Study of the circulation processes in the northern Adriatic sea - coastal area and Venice lagoon inlets

This work is a detailed study of hydrodynamic processes in a defined area, the littoral in front of the Venice Lagoon and its inlets, which are complex morphological areas of interconnection. A finite element hydrodynamic model of the Venice Lagoon and the Adriatic Sea has been developed in order to study the coastal current patterns and the exchanges at the inlets of the Venice Lagoon. This is the first work in this area that tries to model the interaction dynamics, running together a model for the lagoon and the Adriatic Sea. First the barotropic processes near the inlets of the Venice Lagoon have been studied. Data from more than ten tide gauges displaced in the Adriatic Sea have been used in the calibration of the simulated water levels. To validate the model results, empirical flux data measured by ADCP probes installed inside the inlets of Lido and Malamocco have been used and the exchanges through the three inlets of the Venice Lagoon have been analyzed. The comparison between modelled and measured fluxes at the inlets outlined the efficiency of the model to reproduce both tide and wind induced water exchanges between the sea and the lagoon. As a second step, also small scale processes around the inlets that connect the Venice lagoon with the Northern Adriatic Sea have been investigated by means of 3D simulations. Maps of vorticity have been produced, considering the influence of tidal flows and wind stress in the area. A sensitivity analysis has been carried out to define the importance of the advection and of the baroclinic pressure gradients in the development of vortical processes seen along the littoral close to the inlets. Finally a comparison with real data measurements, surface velocity data from HF Radar near the Venice inlets, has been performed, which allows for a better understanding of the processes and their seasonal dynamics. The results outline the predominance of wind and tidal forcing in the coastal area. Wind forcing acts mainly on the mean coastal current inducing its detachment offshore during Sirocco events and an increase of littoral currents during Bora events. The Bora action is more homogeneous on the whole coastal area whereas the Sirocco strengthens its impact in the South, near Chioggia inlet. Tidal forcing at the inlets is mainly barotropic. The sensitivity analysis shows how advection is the main physical process responsible for the persistent vortical structures present along the littoral between the Venice Lagoon inlets. The comparison with measurements from HF Radar not only permitted a validation the model results, but also a description of different patterns in specific periods of the year. The success of the 2D and the 3D simulations on the reproduction both of the SSE, inside and outside the Venice Lagoon, of the tidal flow, through the lagoon inlets, and of the small scale phenomena, occurring along the littoral, indicates that the finite element approach is the most suitable tool for the investigation of coastal processes. For the first time, as shown by the flux modeling, the physical processes that drive the interaction between the two basins were reproduced.

Refined Estimation of Earthquake Source Parameters: Methods, Applications and Scaling Relationships

The objective of this work of thesis is the refined estimations of source parameters. To such a purpose we used two different approaches, one in the frequency domain and the other in the time domain. In frequency domain, we analyzed the P- and S-wave displacement spectra to estimate spectral parameters, that is corner frequencies and low frequency spectral amplitudes. We used a parametric modeling approach which is combined with a multi-step, non-linear inversion strategy and includes the correction for attenuation and site effects. The iterative multi-step procedure was applied to about 700 microearthquakes in the moment range 1011-1014 N•m and recorded at the dense, wide-dynamic range, seismic networks operating in Southern Apennines (Italy). The analysis of the source parameters is often complicated when we are not able to model the propagation accurately. In this case the empirical Green function approach is a very useful tool to study the seismic source properties. In fact the Empirical Green Functions (EGFs) consent to represent the contribution of propagation and site effects to signal without using approximate velocity models. An EGF is a recorded three-component set of time-histories of a small earthquake whose source mechanism and propagation path are similar to those of the master event. Thus, in time domain, the deconvolution method of Vallée (2004) was applied to calculate the source time functions (RSTFs) and to accurately estimate source size and rupture velocity. This technique was applied to 1) large event, that is Mw=6.3 2009 L’Aquila mainshock (Central Italy), 2) moderate events, that is cluster of earthquakes of 2009 L’Aquila sequence with moment magnitude ranging between 3 and 5.6, 3) small event, i.e. Mw=2.9 Laviano mainshock (Southern Italy).

Indoor and Outdoor Natural Radioactivity in the Vulsini Volcanic District (Central Italy): Estimation of Doses and Radiological Risks

Terrestrial radioactivity for most individual is the major contributor to the total dose and is mostly provided by 238U, 232Th and 40K radionuclides. In particular indoor radioactivity is principally due to 222Rn, a radioactive noble gas descendent of 238U, second cause of lung cancer after cigarettes smoking. Vulsini Volcanic District is a well known quaternary volcanic area located between the northern Latium and southern Tuscany (Central Italy). It is characterized by an high natural radiation background resulting from the high concentrations of 238U, 232Th and 40K in the volcanic products. In this context, subduction-related metasomatic enrichment of incompatible elements in the mantle source coupled with magma differentiation within the upper crust has given rise to U, Th and K enriched melts. Almost every ancient village and town located in this part of Italy has been built with volcanic rocks pertaining to the Vulsini Volcanic District. The radiological risk of living in this area has been estimated considering separately: a. the risk associated with buildings made of volcanic products and built on volcanic rock substrates b. the risk associated to soil characteristics. The former has been evaluated both using direct 222Rn indoor measurements and simulations of “standard rooms” built with the tuffs and lavas from the Vulsini Volcanic District investigated in this work. The latter has been carried out by using in situ measurements of 222Rn activity in the soil gases. A radon risk map for the Bolsena village has been developed using soil radon measurements integrating geological information. Data of airborne radioactivity in ambient aerosol at two elevated stations in Emilia Romagna (North Italy) under the influence of Fukushima plume have been collected, effective doses have been calculated and an extensive comparison between doses associated with artificial and natural sources in different area have been described and discussed.

Estimation of Quasi-Rational DSGE Models

Small-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium have been treated as the benchmark of much of the monetary policy literature, given their ability to explain the impact of monetary policy on output, inflation and financial markets. One cause of the empirical failure of New Keynesian models is partially due to the Rational Expectations (RE) paradigm, which entails a tight structure on the dynamics of the system. Under this hypothesis, the agents are assumed to know the data genereting process. In this paper, we propose the econometric analysis of New Keynesian DSGE models under an alternative expectations generating paradigm, which can be regarded as an intermediate position between rational expectations and learning, nameley an adapted version of the "Quasi-Rational" Expectatations (QRE) hypothesis. Given the agents' statistical model, we build a pseudo-structural form from the baseline system of Euler equations, imposing that the length of the reduced form is the same as in the `best' statistical model.

The XENON1T experiment: Monte Carlo background estimation and sensitivity curves study

Despite the scientific achievement of the last decades in the astrophysical and cosmological fields, the majority of the Universe energy content is still unknown. A potential solution to the “missing mass problem” is the existence of dark matter in the form of WIMPs. Due to the very small cross section for WIMP-nuleon interactions, the number of expected events is very limited (about 1 ev/tonne/year), thus requiring detectors with large target mass and low background level. The aim of the XENON1T experiment, the first tonne-scale LXe based detector, is to be sensitive to WIMP-nucleon cross section as low as 10^-47 cm^2. To investigate the possibility of such a detector to reach its goal, Monte Carlo simulations are mandatory to estimate the background. To this aim, the GEANT4 toolkit has been used to implement the detector geometry and to simulate the decays from the various background sources: electromagnetic and nuclear. From the analysis of the simulations, the level of background has been found totally acceptable for the experiment purposes: about 1 background event in a 2 tonne-years exposure. Indeed, using the Maximum Gap method, the XENON1T sensitivity has been evaluated and the minimum for the WIMP-nucleon cross sections has been found at 1.87 x 10^-47 cm^2, at 90% CL, for a WIMP mass of 45 GeV/c^2. The results have been independently cross checked by using the Likelihood Ratio method that confirmed such results with an agreement within less than a factor two. Such a result is completely acceptable considering the intrinsic differences between the two statistical methods. Thus, in the PhD thesis it has been proven that the XENON1T detector will be able to reach the designed sensitivity, thus lowering the limits on the WIMP-nucleon cross section by about 2 orders of magnitude with respect to the current experiments.