Probabilistic approaches in civil engineering: generation of random fields and structural identification with genetic algorithms

The inherent stochastic character of most of the physical quantities involved in engineering models has led to an always increasing interest for probabilistic analysis. Many approaches to stochastic analysis have been proposed. However, it is widely acknowledged that the only universal method available to solve accurately any kind of stochastic mechanics problem is Monte Carlo Simulation. One of the key parts in the implementation of this technique is the accurate and efficient generation of samples of the random processes and fields involved in the problem at hand. In the present thesis an original method for the simulation of homogeneous, multi-dimensional, multi-variate, non-Gaussian random fields is proposed. The algorithm has proved to be very accurate in matching both the target spectrum and the marginal probability. The computational efficiency and robustness are very good too, even when dealing with strongly non-Gaussian distributions. What is more, the resulting samples posses all the relevant, welldefined and desired properties of “translation fields”, including crossing rates and distributions of extremes. The topic of the second part of the thesis lies in the field of non-destructive parametric structural identification. Its objective is to evaluate the mechanical characteristics of constituent bars in existing truss structures, using static loads and strain measurements. In the cases of missing data and of damages that interest only a small portion of the bar, Genetic Algorithm have proved to be an effective tool to solve the problem.

Retrieval of trace gases vertical profile in the lower atmosphere combining. Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy with radiative transfer models

The motivation for the work presented in this thesis is to retrieve profile information for the atmospheric trace constituents nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3) in the lower troposphere from remote sensing measurements. The remote sensing technique used, referred to as Multiple AXis Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (MAX-DOAS), is a recent technique that represents a significant advance on the well-established DOAS, especially for what it concerns the study of tropospheric trace consituents. NO2 is an important trace gas in the lower troposphere due to the fact that it is involved in the production of tropospheric ozone; ozone and nitrogen dioxide are key factors in determining the quality of air with consequences, for example, on human health and the growth of vegetation. To understand the NO2 and ozone chemistry in more detail not only the concentrations at ground but also the acquisition of the vertical distribution is necessary. In fact, the budget of nitrogen oxides and ozone in the atmosphere is determined both by local emissions and non-local chemical and dynamical processes (i.e. diffusion and transport at various scales) that greatly impact on their vertical and temporal distribution: thus a tool to resolve the vertical profile information is really important. Useful measurement techniques for atmospheric trace species should fulfill at least two main requirements. First, they must be sufficiently sensitive to detect the species under consideration at their ambient concentration levels. Second, they must be specific, which means that the results of the measurement of a particular species must be neither positively nor negatively influenced by any other trace species simultaneously present in the probed volume of air. Air monitoring by spectroscopic techniques has proven to be a very useful tool to fulfill these desirable requirements as well as a number of other important properties. During the last decades, many such instruments have been developed which are based on the absorption properties of the constituents in various regions of the electromagnetic spectrum, ranging from the far infrared to the ultraviolet. Among them, Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) has played an important role. DOAS is an established remote sensing technique for atmospheric trace gases probing, which identifies and quantifies the trace gases in the atmosphere taking advantage of their molecular absorption structures in the near UV and visible wavelengths of the electromagnetic spectrum (from 0.25 μm to 0.75 μm). Passive DOAS, in particular, can detect the presence of a trace gas in terms of its integrated concentration over the atmospheric path from the sun to the receiver (the so called slant column density). The receiver can be located at ground, as well as on board an aircraft or a satellite platform. Passive DOAS has, therefore, a flexible measurement configuration that allows multiple applications. The ability to properly interpret passive DOAS measurements of atmospheric constituents depends crucially on how well the optical path of light collected by the system is understood. This is because the final product of DOAS is the concentration of a particular species integrated along the path that radiation covers in the atmosphere. This path is not known a priori and can only be evaluated by Radiative Transfer Models (RTMs). These models are used to calculate the so called vertical column density of a given trace gas, which is obtained by dividing the measured slant column density to the so called air mass factor, which is used to quantify the enhancement of the light path length within the absorber layers. In the case of the standard DOAS set-up, in which radiation is collected along the vertical direction (zenith-sky DOAS), calculations of the air mass factor have been made using “simple” single scattering radiative transfer models. This configuration has its highest sensitivity in the stratosphere, in particular during twilight. This is the result of the large enhancement in stratospheric light path at dawn and dusk combined with a relatively short tropospheric path. In order to increase the sensitivity of the instrument towards tropospheric signals, measurements with the telescope pointing the horizon (offaxis DOAS) have to be performed. In this circumstances, the light path in the lower layers can become very long and necessitate the use of radiative transfer models including multiple scattering, the full treatment of atmospheric sphericity and refraction. In this thesis, a recent development in the well-established DOAS technique is described, referred to as Multiple AXis Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (MAX-DOAS). The MAX-DOAS consists in the simultaneous use of several off-axis directions near the horizon: using this configuration, not only the sensitivity to tropospheric trace gases is greatly improved, but vertical profile information can also be retrieved by combining the simultaneous off-axis measurements with sophisticated RTM calculations and inversion techniques. In particular there is a need for a RTM which is capable of dealing with all the processes intervening along the light path, supporting all DOAS geometries used, and treating multiple scattering events with varying phase functions involved. To achieve these multiple goals a statistical approach based on the Monte Carlo technique should be used. A Monte Carlo RTM generates an ensemble of random photon paths between the light source and the detector, and uses these paths to reconstruct a remote sensing measurement. Within the present study, the Monte Carlo radiative transfer model PROMSAR (PROcessing of Multi-Scattered Atmospheric Radiation) has been developed and used to correctly interpret the slant column densities obtained from MAX-DOAS measurements. In order to derive the vertical concentration profile of a trace gas from its slant column measurement, the AMF is only one part in the quantitative retrieval process. One indispensable requirement is a robust approach to invert the measurements and obtain the unknown concentrations, the air mass factors being known. For this purpose, in the present thesis, we have used the Chahine relaxation method. Ground-based Multiple AXis DOAS, combined with appropriate radiative transfer models and inversion techniques, is a promising tool for atmospheric studies in the lower troposphere and boundary layer, including the retrieval of profile information with a good degree of vertical resolution. This thesis has presented an application of this powerful comprehensive tool for the study of a preserved natural Mediterranean area (the Castel Porziano Estate, located 20 km South-West of Rome) where pollution is transported from remote sources. Application of this tool in densely populated or industrial areas is beginning to look particularly fruitful and represents an important subject for future studies.

A dynamical system approach to data assimilation in chaotic models

The Assimilation in the Unstable Subspace (AUS) was introduced by Trevisan and Uboldi in 2004, and developed by Trevisan, Uboldi and Carrassi, to minimize the analysis and forecast errors by exploiting the flow-dependent instabilities of the forecast-analysis cycle system, which may be thought of as a system forced by observations. In the AUS scheme the assimilation is obtained by confining the analysis increment in the unstable subspace of the forecast-analysis cycle system so that it will have the same structure of the dominant instabilities of the system. The unstable subspace is estimated by Breeding on the Data Assimilation System (BDAS). AUS- BDAS has already been tested in realistic models and observational configurations, including a Quasi-Geostrophicmodel and a high dimensional, primitive equation ocean model; the experiments include both fixed and“adaptive”observations. In these contexts, the AUS-BDAS approach greatly reduces the analysis error, with reasonable computational costs for data assimilation with respect, for example, to a prohibitive full Extended Kalman Filter. This is a follow-up study in which we revisit the AUS-BDAS approach in the more basic, highly nonlinear Lorenz 1963 convective model. We run observation system simulation experiments in a perfect model setting, and with two types of model error as well: random and systematic. In the different configurations examined, and in a perfect model setting, AUS once again shows better efficiency than other advanced data assimilation schemes. In the present study, we develop an iterative scheme that leads to a significant improvement of the overall assimilation performance with respect also to standard AUS. In particular, it boosts the efficiency of regime’s changes tracking, with a low computational cost. Other data assimilation schemes need estimates of ad hoc parameters, which have to be tuned for the specific model at hand. In Numerical Weather Prediction models, tuning of parameters — and in particular an estimate of the model error covariance matrix — may turn out to be quite difficult. Our proposed approach, instead, may be easier to implement in operational models.

Econometric models of financial risks

The goal of this dissertation is to use statistical tools to analyze specific financial risks that have played dominant roles in the US financial crisis of 2008-2009. The first risk relates to the level of aggregate stress in the financial markets. I estimate the impact of financial stress on economic activity and monetary policy using structural VAR analysis. The second set of risks concerns the US housing market. There are in fact two prominent risks associated with a US mortgage, as borrowers can both prepay or default on a mortgage. I test the existence of unobservable heterogeneity in the borrower's decision to default or prepay on his mortgage by estimating a multinomial logit model with borrower-specific random coefficients.

Machine learning per l'idrologia: applicazione del metodo random forests per la previsione degli eventi di piena fluviale con un approccio probabilistico

Le tecniche di Machine Learning sono molto utili in quanto consento di massimizzare l’utilizzo delle informazioni in tempo reale. Il metodo Random Forests può essere annoverato tra le tecniche di Machine Learning più recenti e performanti. Sfruttando le caratteristiche e le potenzialità di questo metodo, la presente tesi di dottorato affronta due casi di studio differenti; grazie ai quali è stato possibile elaborare due differenti modelli previsionali. Il primo caso di studio si è incentrato sui principali fiumi della regione Emilia-Romagna, caratterizzati da tempi di risposta molto brevi. La scelta di questi fiumi non è stata casuale: negli ultimi anni, infatti, in detti bacini si sono verificati diversi eventi di piena, in gran parte di tipo “flash flood”. Il secondo caso di studio riguarda le sezioni principali del fiume Po, dove il tempo di propagazione dell’onda di piena è maggiore rispetto ai corsi d’acqua del primo caso di studio analizzato. Partendo da una grande quantità di dati, il primo passo è stato selezionare e definire i dati in ingresso in funzione degli obiettivi da raggiungere, per entrambi i casi studio. Per l’elaborazione del modello relativo ai fiumi dell’Emilia-Romagna, sono stati presi in considerazione esclusivamente i dati osservati; a differenza del bacino del fiume Po in cui ai dati osservati sono stati affiancati anche i dati di previsione provenienti dalla catena modellistica Mike11 NAM/HD. Sfruttando una delle principali caratteristiche del metodo Random Forests, è stata stimata una probabilità di accadimento: questo aspetto è fondamentale sia nella fase tecnica che in fase decisionale per qualsiasi attività di intervento di protezione civile. L'elaborazione dei dati e i dati sviluppati sono stati effettuati in ambiente R. Al termine della fase di validazione, gli incoraggianti risultati ottenuti hanno permesso di inserire il modello sviluppato nel primo caso studio all’interno dell’architettura operativa di FEWS.

Statistical learning of random probability measures

The study of random probability measures is a lively research topic that has attracted interest from different fields in recent years. In this thesis, we consider random probability measures in the context of Bayesian nonparametrics, where the law of a random probability measure is used as prior distribution, and in the context of distributional data analysis, where the goal is to perform inference given avsample from the law of a random probability measure. The contributions contained in this thesis can be subdivided according to three different topics: (i) the use of almost surely discrete repulsive random measures (i.e., whose support points are well separated) for Bayesian model-based clustering, (ii) the proposal of new laws for collections of random probability measures for Bayesian density estimation of partially exchangeable data subdivided into different groups, and (iii) the study of principal component analysis and regression models for probability distributions seen as elements of the 2-Wasserstein space. Specifically, for point (i) above we propose an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for posterior inference, which sidesteps the need of split-merge reversible jump moves typically associated with poor performance, we propose a model for clustering high-dimensional data by introducing a novel class of anisotropic determinantal point processes, and study the distributional properties of the repulsive measures, shedding light on important theoretical results which enable more principled prior elicitation and more efficient posterior simulation algorithms. For point (ii) above, we consider several models suitable for clustering homogeneous populations, inducing spatial dependence across groups of data, extracting the characteristic traits common to all the data-groups, and propose a novel vector autoregressive model to study of growth curves of Singaporean kids. Finally, for point (iii), we propose a novel class of projected statistical methods for distributional data analysis for measures on the real line and on the unit-circle.

On the effect of confounding in linear regression models: an approach based on the theory of quadratic forms

The main topic of this thesis is confounding in linear regression models. It arises when a relationship between an observed process, the covariate, and an outcome process, the response, is influenced by an unmeasured process, the confounder, associated with both. Consequently, the estimators for the regression coefficients of the measured covariates might be severely biased, less efficient and characterized by misleading interpretations. Confounding is an issue when the primary target of the work is the estimation of the regression parameters. The central point of the dissertation is the evaluation of the sampling properties of parameter estimators. This work aims to extend the spatial confounding framework to general structured settings and to understand the behaviour of confounding as a function of the data generating process structure parameters in several scenarios focusing on the joint covariate-confounder structure. In line with the spatial statistics literature, our purpose is to quantify the sampling properties of the regression coefficient estimators and, in turn, to identify the most prominent quantities depending on the generative mechanism impacting confounding. Once the sampling properties of the estimator conditionally on the covariate process are derived as ratios of dependent quadratic forms in Gaussian random variables, we provide an analytic expression of the marginal sampling properties of the estimator using Carlson’s R function. Additionally, we propose a representative quantity for the magnitude of confounding as a proxy of the bias, its first-order Laplace approximation. To conclude, we work under several frameworks considering spatial and temporal data with specific assumptions regarding the covariance and cross-covariance functions used to generate the processes involved. This study allows us to claim that the variability of the confounder-covariate interaction and of the covariate plays the most relevant role in determining the principal marker of the magnitude of confounding.