15 resultados para Probabilistic latent semantic analysis (PLSA)
em AMS Tesi di Dottorato - Alm@DL - Università di Bologna
Resumo:
In Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE), evaluating the seismic performance (or seismic risk) of a structure at a designed site has gained major attention, especially in the past decade. One of the objectives in PBEE is to quantify the seismic reliability of a structure (due to the future random earthquakes) at a site. For that purpose, Probabilistic Seismic Demand Analysis (PSDA) is utilized as a tool to estimate the Mean Annual Frequency (MAF) of exceeding a specified value of a structural Engineering Demand Parameter (EDP). This dissertation focuses mainly on applying an average of a certain number of spectral acceleration ordinates in a certain interval of periods, Sa,avg (T1,…,Tn), as scalar ground motion Intensity Measure (IM) when assessing the seismic performance of inelastic structures. Since the interval of periods where computing Sa,avg is related to the more or less influence of higher vibration modes on the inelastic response, it is appropriate to speak about improved IMs. The results using these improved IMs are compared with a conventional elastic-based scalar IMs (e.g., pseudo spectral acceleration, Sa ( T(¹)), or peak ground acceleration, PGA) and the advanced inelastic-based scalar IM (i.e., inelastic spectral displacement, Sdi). The advantages of applying improved IMs are: (i ) "computability" of the seismic hazard according to traditional Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA), because ground motion prediction models are already available for Sa (Ti), and hence it is possibile to employ existing models to assess hazard in terms of Sa,avg, and (ii ) "efficiency" or smaller variability of structural response, which was minimized to assess the optimal range to compute Sa,avg. More work is needed to assess also "sufficiency" and "scaling robustness" desirable properties, which are disregarded in this dissertation. However, for ordinary records (i.e., with no pulse like effects), using the improved IMs is found to be more accurate than using the elastic- and inelastic-based IMs. For structural demands that are dominated by the first mode of vibration, using Sa,avg can be negligible relative to the conventionally-used Sa (T(¹)) and the advanced Sdi. For structural demands with sign.cant higher-mode contribution, an improved scalar IM that incorporates higher modes needs to be utilized. In order to fully understand the influence of the IM on the seismis risk, a simplified closed-form expression for the probability of exceeding a limit state capacity was chosen as a reliability measure under seismic excitations and implemented for Reinforced Concrete (RC) frame structures. This closed-form expression is partuclarly useful for seismic assessment and design of structures, taking into account the uncertainty in the generic variables, structural "demand" and "capacity" as well as the uncertainty in seismic excitations. The assumed framework employs nonlinear Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA) procedures in order to estimate variability in the response of the structure (demand) to seismic excitations, conditioned to IM. The estimation of the seismic risk using the simplified closed-form expression is affected by IM, because the final seismic risk is not constant, but with the same order of magnitude. Possible reasons concern the non-linear model assumed, or the insufficiency of the selected IM. Since it is impossibile to state what is the "real" probability of exceeding a limit state looking the total risk, the only way is represented by the optimization of the desirable properties of an IM.
Resumo:
«Fiction of frontier». Phenomenology of an open form/voice. Francesco Giustini’s PhD dissertation fits into a genre of research usually neglected by the literary criticism which nevertheless is arousing much interest in recent years: the relationship between Literature and Space. In this context, the specific issue of his work consists in the category of the Frontier including its several implications for the XX century fiction. The preliminary step, at the beginning of the first section of the dissertation, is a semantic analysis: with precision, Giustini describes the meaning of the word “frontier” here declined in a multiplicity of cultural, political and geographical contexts, starting from the American frontier of the pioneers who headed for the West, to the exotic frontiers of the world, with whose the imperialistic colonization has come into contact; from the semi-uninhabited areas like deserts, highlands and virgin forests, to the ethnic frontiers between Indian and white people in South America, since the internal frontiers of the Countries like those ones between the District and the Capital City, the Centre and the Outskirts. In the next step, Giustini wants to focus on a real “ myth of the frontier”, able to nourish cultural and literary imagination. Indeed, the literature has told and chosen the frontier as the scenery for many stories; especially in the 20th Century it made the frontier a problematic space in the light of events and changes that have transformed the perception of space and our relationship with it. Therefore, the dissertation proposes a critical category, it traces the hallmarks of a specific literary phenomenon defined “ Fiction of the frontier” ,present in many literary traditions during the 20th Century. The term “Fiction” (not “Literature” or “Poetics”) does not define a genre but rather a “procedure”, focusing on a constant issue pointed out from the texts examined in this work : the strong call to the act of narration and to its oral traditions. The “Fiction of the Frontier” is perceived as an approach to the world, a way of watching and feeling the objects, an emotion that is lived and told through the story- a story where the narrator ,through his body and his voice, takes the rule of the witness. The following parts, that have an analytic style, are constructed on the basis of this theoretical and methodological reflection. The second section gives a wide range of examples into we can find the figure and the myth of the frontier through the textual analysis which range over several literary traditions. Starting from monographic chapters (Garcia Marquez, Callado, McCarthy), to the comparative reading of couples of texts (Calvino and Verga Llosa, Buzzati and Coetzee, Arguedas and Rulfo). The selection of texts is introduced so as to underline a particular aspect or a form of the frontier at every reading. This section is articulated into thematic voices which recall some actions that can be taken into the ambiguous and liminal space of the frontier (to communicate, to wait, to “trans-culturate”, to imagine, to live in, to not-live in). In this phenomenology, the frontier comes to the light as a physical and concrete element or as a cultural, imaginary, linguistic, ethnic and existential category. In the end, the third section is centered on a more defined and elaborated analysis of two authors, considered as fundamental for the comprehension of the “Fiction of the frontier”: Joseph Conrad and João Guimarães Rosa. Even if they are very different, being part of unlike literary traditions, these two authors show many connections which are pointed by the comparative analysis. Maybe Conrad is the first author that understand the feeling of the frontier , freeing himself from the adventure romance and from the exotic nineteenthcentury tradition. João Guimarães Rosa, in his turn, is the great narrator of Brazilian and South American frontier, he is the man of sertão and of endless spaces of the Centre of Brazil. His production is strongly linked to that one belonged to the author of Heart of Darkness.
Resumo:
The inherent stochastic character of most of the physical quantities involved in engineering models has led to an always increasing interest for probabilistic analysis. Many approaches to stochastic analysis have been proposed. However, it is widely acknowledged that the only universal method available to solve accurately any kind of stochastic mechanics problem is Monte Carlo Simulation. One of the key parts in the implementation of this technique is the accurate and efficient generation of samples of the random processes and fields involved in the problem at hand. In the present thesis an original method for the simulation of homogeneous, multi-dimensional, multi-variate, non-Gaussian random fields is proposed. The algorithm has proved to be very accurate in matching both the target spectrum and the marginal probability. The computational efficiency and robustness are very good too, even when dealing with strongly non-Gaussian distributions. What is more, the resulting samples posses all the relevant, welldefined and desired properties of “translation fields”, including crossing rates and distributions of extremes. The topic of the second part of the thesis lies in the field of non-destructive parametric structural identification. Its objective is to evaluate the mechanical characteristics of constituent bars in existing truss structures, using static loads and strain measurements. In the cases of missing data and of damages that interest only a small portion of the bar, Genetic Algorithm have proved to be an effective tool to solve the problem.
Resumo:
This Doctoral Thesis focuses on the study of individual behaviours as a result of organizational affiliation. The objective is to assess the Entrepreneurial Orientation of individuals proving the existence of a set of antecedents to that measure returning a structural model of its micro-foundation. Relying on the developed measurement model, I address the issue whether some Entrepreneurs experience different behaviours as a result of their academic affiliation, comparing a sample of ‘Academic Entrepreneurs’ to a control sample of ‘Private Entrepreneurs’ affiliated to a matched sample of Academic Spin-offs and Private Start-ups. Building on the Theory of the Planned Behaviour, proposed by Ajzen (1991), I present a model of causal antecedents of Entrepreneurial Orientation on constructs extensively used and validated, both from a theoretical and empirical perspective, in sociological and psychological studies. I focus my investigation on five major domains: (a) Situationally Specific Motivation, (b) Personal Traits and Characteristics, (c) Individual Skills, (d) Perception of the Business Environment and (e) Entrepreneurial Orientation Related Dimensions. I rely on a sample of 200 Entrepreneurs, affiliated to a matched sample of 72 Academic Spin-offs and Private Start-ups. Firms are matched by Industry, Year of Establishment and Localization and they are all located in the Emilia Romagna region, in northern Italy. I’ve gathered data by face to face interviews and used a Structural Equation Modeling technique (Lisrel 8.80, Joreskog, K., & Sorbom, D. 2006) to perform the empirical analysis. The results show that Entrepreneurial Orientation is a multi-dimensional micro-founded construct which can be better represented by a Second-Order Model. The t-tests on the latent means reveal that the Academic Entrepreneurs differ in terms of: Risk taking, Passion, Procedural and Organizational Skills, Perception of the Government, Context and University Supports. The Structural models also reveal that the main differences between the two groups lay in the predicting power of Technical Skills, Perceived Context Support and Perceived University Support in explaining the Entrepreneurial Orientation Related Dimensions.
Resumo:
Forecasting the time, location, nature, and scale of volcanic eruptions is one of the most urgent aspects of modern applied volcanology. The reliability of probabilistic forecasting procedures is strongly related to the reliability of the input information provided, implying objective criteria for interpreting the historical and monitoring data. For this reason both, detailed analysis of past data and more basic research into the processes of volcanism, are fundamental tasks of a continuous information-gain process; in this way the precursor events of eruptions can be better interpreted in terms of their physical meanings with correlated uncertainties. This should lead to better predictions of the nature of eruptive events. In this work we have studied different problems associated with the long- and short-term eruption forecasting assessment. First, we discuss different approaches for the analysis of the eruptive history of a volcano, most of them generally applied for long-term eruption forecasting purposes; furthermore, we present a model based on the characteristics of a Brownian passage-time process to describe recurrent eruptive activity, and apply it for long-term, time-dependent, eruption forecasting (Chapter 1). Conversely, in an effort to define further monitoring parameters as input data for short-term eruption forecasting in probabilistic models (as for example, the Bayesian Event Tree for eruption forecasting -BET_EF-), we analyze some characteristics of typical seismic activity recorded in active volcanoes; in particular, we use some methodologies that may be applied to analyze long-period (LP) events (Chapter 2) and volcano-tectonic (VT) seismic swarms (Chapter 3); our analysis in general are oriented toward the tracking of phenomena that can provide information about magmatic processes. Finally, we discuss some possible ways to integrate the results presented in Chapters 1 (for long-term EF), 2 and 3 (for short-term EF) in the BET_EF model (Chapter 4).
Resumo:
Many industries and academic institutions share the vision that an appropriate use of information originated from the environment may add value to services in multiple domains and may help humans in dealing with the growing information overload which often seems to jeopardize our life. It is also clear that information sharing and mutual understanding between software agents may impact complex processes where many actors (humans and machines) are involved, leading to relevant socioeconomic benefits. Starting from these two input, architectural and technological solutions to enable “environment-related cooperative digital services” are here explored. The proposed analysis starts from the consideration that our environment is physical space and here diversity is a major value. On the other side diversity is detrimental to common technological solutions, and it is an obstacle to mutual understanding. An appropriate environment abstraction and a shared information model are needed to provide the required levels of interoperability in our heterogeneous habitat. This thesis reviews several approaches to support environment related applications and intends to demonstrate that smart-space-based, ontology-driven, information-sharing platforms may become a flexible and powerful solution to support interoperable services in virtually any domain and even in cross-domain scenarios. It also shows that semantic technologies can be fruitfully applied not only to represent application domain knowledge. For example semantic modeling of Human-Computer Interaction may support interaction interoperability and transformation of interaction primitives into actions, and the thesis shows how smart-space-based platforms driven by an interaction ontology may enable natural ad flexible ways of accessing resources and services, e.g, with gestures. An ontology for computational flow execution has also been built to represent abstract computation, with the goal of exploring new ways of scheduling computation flows with smart-space-based semantic platforms.
Resumo:
This doctoral dissertation presents a new method to asses the influence of clearancein the kinematic pairs on the configuration of planar and spatial mechanisms. The subject has been widely investigated in both past and present scientific literature, and is approached in different ways: a static/kinetostatic way, which looks for the clearance take-up due to the external loads on the mechanism; a probabilistic way, which expresses clearance-due displacements using probability density functions; a dynamic way, which evaluates dynamic effects like the actual forces in the pairs caused by impacts, or the consequent vibrations. This dissertation presents a new method to approach the problem of clearance. The problem is studied from a purely kinematic perspective. With reference to a given mechanism configuration, the pose (position and orientation) error of the mechanism link of interest is expressed as a vector function of the degrees of freedom introduced in each pair by clearance: the presence of clearance in a kinematic pair, in facts, causes the actual pair to have more degrees of freedom than the theoretical clearance-free one. The clearance-due degrees of freedom are bounded by the pair geometry. A proper modelling of clearance-affected pairs allows expressing such bounding through analytical functions. It is then possible to study the problem as a maximization problem, where a continuous function (the pose error of the link of interest) subject to some constraints (the analytical functions bounding clearance- due degrees of freedom) has to be maximize. Revolute, prismatic, cylindrical, and spherical clearance-affected pairs have been analytically modelled; with reference to mechanisms involving such pairs, the solution to the maximization problem has been obtained in a closed form.
Resumo:
Dealing with latent constructs (loaded by reflective and congeneric measures) cross-culturally compared means studying how these unobserved variables vary, and/or covary each other, after controlling for possibly disturbing cultural forces. This yields to the so-called ‘measurement invariance’ matter that refers to the extent to which data collected by the same multi-item measurement instrument (i.e., self-reported questionnaire of items underlying common latent constructs) are comparable across different cultural environments. As a matter of fact, it would be unthinkable exploring latent variables heterogeneity (e.g., latent means; latent levels of deviations from the means (i.e., latent variances), latent levels of shared variation from the respective means (i.e., latent covariances), levels of magnitude of structural path coefficients with regard to causal relations among latent variables) across different populations without controlling for cultural bias in the underlying measures. Furthermore, it would be unrealistic to assess this latter correction without using a framework that is able to take into account all these potential cultural biases across populations simultaneously. Since the real world ‘acts’ in a simultaneous way as well. As a consequence, I, as researcher, may want to control for cultural forces hypothesizing they are all acting at the same time throughout groups of comparison and therefore examining if they are inflating or suppressing my new estimations with hierarchical nested constraints on the original estimated parameters. Multi Sample Structural Equation Modeling-based Confirmatory Factor Analysis (MS-SEM-based CFA) still represents a dominant and flexible statistical framework to work out this potential cultural bias in a simultaneous way. With this dissertation I wanted to make an attempt to introduce new viewpoints on measurement invariance handled under covariance-based SEM framework by means of a consumer behavior modeling application on functional food choices.
Resumo:
The aim of the thesis is to propose a Bayesian estimation through Markov chain Monte Carlo of multidimensional item response theory models for graded responses with complex structures and correlated traits. In particular, this work focuses on the multiunidimensional and the additive underlying latent structures, considering that the first one is widely used and represents a classical approach in multidimensional item response analysis, while the second one is able to reflect the complexity of real interactions between items and respondents. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the parameter recovery for the proposed models under different conditions (sample size, test and subtest length, number of response categories, and correlation structure). The results show that the parameter recovery is particularly sensitive to the sample size, due to the model complexity and the high number of parameters to be estimated. For a sufficiently large sample size the parameters of the multiunidimensional and additive graded response models are well reproduced. The results are also affected by the trade-off between the number of items constituting the test and the number of item categories. An application of the proposed models on response data collected to investigate Romagna and San Marino residents' perceptions and attitudes towards the tourism industry is also presented.
Resumo:
This thesis is divided in three chapters. In the first chapter we analyse the results of the world forecasting experiment run by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). We take the opportunity of this experiment to contribute to the definition of a more robust and reliable statistical procedure to evaluate earthquake forecasting models. We first present the models and the target earthquakes to be forecast. Then we explain the consistency and comparison tests that are used in CSEP experiments to evaluate the performance of the models. Introducing a methodology to create ensemble forecasting models, we show that models, when properly combined, are almost always better performing that any single model. In the second chapter we discuss in depth one of the basic features of PSHA: the declustering of the seismicity rates. We first introduce the Cornell-McGuire method for PSHA and we present the different motivations that stand behind the need of declustering seismic catalogs. Using a theorem of the modern probability (Le Cam's theorem) we show that the declustering is not necessary to obtain a Poissonian behaviour of the exceedances that is usually considered fundamental to transform exceedance rates in exceedance probabilities in the PSHA framework. We present a method to correct PSHA for declustering, building a more realistic PSHA. In the last chapter we explore the methods that are commonly used to take into account the epistemic uncertainty in PSHA. The most widely used method is the logic tree that stands at the basis of the most advanced seismic hazard maps. We illustrate the probabilistic structure of the logic tree, and then we show that this structure is not adequate to describe the epistemic uncertainty. We then propose a new probabilistic framework based on the ensemble modelling that properly accounts for epistemic uncertainties in PSHA.
Resumo:
Principale obiettivo della ricerca è quello di ricostruire lo stato dell’arte in materia di sanità elettronica e Fascicolo Sanitario Elettronico, con una precipua attenzione ai temi della protezione dei dati personali e dell’interoperabilità. A tal fine sono stati esaminati i documenti, vincolanti e non, dell’Unione europea nonché selezionati progetti europei e nazionali (come “Smart Open Services for European Patients” (EU); “Elektronische Gesundheitsakte” (Austria); “MedCom” (Danimarca); “Infrastruttura tecnologica del Fascicolo Sanitario Elettronico”, “OpenInFSE: Realizzazione di un’infrastruttura operativa a supporto dell’interoperabilità delle soluzioni territoriali di fascicolo sanitario elettronico nel contesto del sistema pubblico di connettività”, “Evoluzione e interoperabilità tecnologica del Fascicolo Sanitario Elettronico”, “IPSE - Sperimentazione di un sistema per l’interoperabilità europea e nazionale delle soluzioni di Fascicolo Sanitario Elettronico: componenti Patient Summary e ePrescription” (Italia)). Le analisi giuridiche e tecniche mostrano il bisogno urgente di definire modelli che incoraggino l’utilizzo di dati sanitari ed implementino strategie effettive per l’utilizzo con finalità secondarie di dati sanitari digitali , come Open Data e Linked Open Data. L’armonizzazione giuridica e tecnologica è vista come aspetto strategico per ridurre i conflitti in materia di protezione di dati personali esistenti nei Paesi membri nonché la mancanza di interoperabilità tra i sistemi informativi europei sui Fascicoli Sanitari Elettronici. A questo scopo sono state individuate tre linee guida: (1) armonizzazione normativa, (2) armonizzazione delle regole, (3) armonizzazione del design dei sistemi informativi. I principi della Privacy by Design (“prottivi” e “win-win”), così come gli standard del Semantic Web, sono considerate chiavi risolutive per il suddetto cambiamento.
Resumo:
This work is focused on the study of saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifers, and in particular on the realization of conceptual schemes to evaluate the risk associated with it. Saltwater intrusion depends on different natural and anthropic factors, both presenting a strong aleatory behaviour, that should be considered for an optimal management of the territory and water resources. Given the uncertainty of problem parameters, the risk associated with salinization needs to be cast in a probabilistic framework. On the basis of a widely adopted sharp interface formulation, key hydrogeological problem parameters are modeled as random variables, and global sensitivity analysis is used to determine their influence on the position of saltwater interface. The analyses presented in this work rely on an efficient model reduction technique, based on Polynomial Chaos Expansion, able to combine the best description of the model without great computational burden. When the assumptions of classical analytical models are not respected, and this occurs several times in the applications to real cases of study, as in the area analyzed in the present work, one can adopt data-driven techniques, based on the analysis of the data characterizing the system under study. It follows that a model can be defined on the basis of connections between the system state variables, with only a limited number of assumptions about the "physical" behaviour of the system.
Resumo:
In this thesis, we analyse these protocols using PRISM+, our extension of the probabilistic model checker PRISM with blockchain types and operations upon them. This allows us to model the behaviour of key participants in the protocols and describe the protocols as a parallel composition of PRISM+ processes. Through our analysis of the Bitcoin model, we are able to understand how forks (where different nodes have different versions of the blockchain) occur and how they depend on specific parameters of the protocol, such as the difficulty of the cryptopuzzle and network communication delays. Our results corroborate the statement that considering confirmed the transactions in blocks at depth larger than 5 is reasonable because the majority of miners have consistent blockchains up-to that depth with probability of almost 1. We also study the behaviour of the Bitcoin network with churn miners (nodes that leave and rejoin the network) and with different topologies (linear topology, ring topology, tree topology and fully connected topology). PRISM+ is therefore used to analyse the resilience of Hybrid Casper when changing various basic parameters of the protocol, such as block creation rates and penalty determination strategies. We also study the robustness of Hybrid Casper against two known attacks: the Eclipse attack (where an attacker controls a significant portion of the network's nodes and can prevent other nodes from receiving new transactions) and the majority attack (where an attacker controls a majority of the network's nodes and can manipulate the blockchain to their advantage).
Resumo:
Earthquake prediction is a complex task for scientists due to the rare occurrence of high-intensity earthquakes and their inaccessible depths. Despite this challenge, it is a priority to protect infrastructure, and populations living in areas of high seismic risk. Reliable forecasting requires comprehensive knowledge of seismic phenomena. In this thesis, the development, application, and comparison of both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting methods is shown. Regarding the deterministic approach, the implementation of an alarm-based method using the occurrence of strong (fore)shocks, widely felt by the population, as a precursor signal is described. This model is then applied for retrospective prediction of Italian earthquakes of magnitude M≥5.0,5.5,6.0, occurred in Italy from 1960 to 2020. Retrospective performance testing is carried out using tests and statistics specific to deterministic alarm-based models. Regarding probabilistic models, this thesis focuses mainly on the EEPAS and ETAS models. Although the EEPAS model has been previously applied and tested in some regions of the world, it has never been used for forecasting Italian earthquakes. In the thesis, the EEPAS model is used to retrospectively forecast Italian shallow earthquakes with a magnitude of M≥5.0 using new MATLAB software. The forecasting performance of the probabilistic models was compared to other models using CSEP binary tests. The EEPAS and ETAS models showed different characteristics for forecasting Italian earthquakes, with EEPAS performing better in the long-term and ETAS performing better in the short-term. The FORE model based on strong precursor quakes is compared to EEPAS and ETAS using an alarm-based deterministic approach. All models perform better than a random forecasting model, with ETAS and FORE models showing better performance. However, to fully evaluate forecasting performance, prospective tests should be conducted. The lack of objective tests for evaluating deterministic models and comparing them with probabilistic ones was a challenge faced during the study.
Resumo:
Personal archives are the archives created by individuals for their own purposes. Among these are the library and documentary collections of writers and scholars. It is only recently that archival literature has begun to focus on this category of archives, emphasising how their heterogeneous nature necessitates the conciliation of different approaches to archival description, and calling for a broader understanding of the principle of provenance, recognising that multiple creators, including subsequent researchers, can contribute to shaping personal archives over time by adding new layers of contexts. Despite these advances in the theoretical debate, current architectures for archival representation remain behind. Finding aids privilege a single point of view and do not allow subsequent users to embed their own, potentially conflicting, readings. Using semantic web technologies this study aims to define a conceptual model for writers' archives based on existing and widely adopted models in the cultural heritage and humanities domains. The model developed can be used to represent different types of documents at various levels of analysis, as well as record content and components. It also enables the representation of complex relationships and the incorporation of additional layers of interpretation into the finding aid, transforming it from a static search tool into a dynamic research platform. The personal archive and library of Giuseppe Raimondi serves as a case study for the creation of an archival knowledge base using the proposed conceptual model. By querying the knowledge graph through SPARQL, the effectiveness of the model is evaluated. The results demonstrate that the model addresses the primary representation challenges identified in archival literature, from both a technological and methodological standpoint. The ultimate goal is to bring the output par excellence of archival science, i.e. the finding aid, more in line with the latest developments in archival thinking.