Non-Markovian stochastic processes and their applications: from anomalous diffusion to time series analysis

This work provides a forward step in the study and comprehension of the relationships between stochastic processes and a certain class of integral-partial differential equation, which can be used in order to model anomalous diffusion and transport in statistical physics. In the first part, we brought the reader through the fundamental notions of probability and stochastic processes, stochastic integration and stochastic differential equations as well. In particular, within the study of H-sssi processes, we focused on fractional Brownian motion (fBm) and its discrete-time increment process, the fractional Gaussian noise (fGn), which provide examples of non-Markovian Gaussian processes. The fGn, together with stationary FARIMA processes, is widely used in the modeling and estimation of long-memory, or long-range dependence (LRD). Time series manifesting long-range dependence, are often observed in nature especially in physics, meteorology, climatology, but also in hydrology, geophysics, economy and many others. We deepely studied LRD, giving many real data examples, providing statistical analysis and introducing parametric methods of estimation. Then, we introduced the theory of fractional integrals and derivatives, which indeed turns out to be very appropriate for studying and modeling systems with long-memory properties. After having introduced the basics concepts, we provided many examples and applications. For instance, we investigated the relaxation equation with distributed order time-fractional derivatives, which describes models characterized by a strong memory component and can be used to model relaxation in complex systems, which deviates from the classical exponential Debye pattern. Then, we focused in the study of generalizations of the standard diffusion equation, by passing through the preliminary study of the fractional forward drift equation. Such generalizations have been obtained by using fractional integrals and derivatives of distributed orders. In order to find a connection between the anomalous diffusion described by these equations and the long-range dependence, we introduced and studied the generalized grey Brownian motion (ggBm), which is actually a parametric class of H-sssi processes, which have indeed marginal probability density function evolving in time according to a partial integro-differential equation of fractional type. The ggBm is of course Non-Markovian. All around the work, we have remarked many times that, starting from a master equation of a probability density function f(x,t), it is always possible to define an equivalence class of stochastic processes with the same marginal density function f(x,t). All these processes provide suitable stochastic models for the starting equation. Studying the ggBm, we just focused on a subclass made up of processes with stationary increments. The ggBm has been defined canonically in the so called grey noise space. However, we have been able to provide a characterization notwithstanding the underline probability space. We also pointed out that that the generalized grey Brownian motion is a direct generalization of a Gaussian process and in particular it generalizes Brownain motion and fractional Brownain motion as well. Finally, we introduced and analyzed a more general class of diffusion type equations related to certain non-Markovian stochastic processes. We started from the forward drift equation, which have been made non-local in time by the introduction of a suitable chosen memory kernel K(t). The resulting non-Markovian equation has been interpreted in a natural way as the evolution equation of the marginal density function of a random time process l(t). We then consider the subordinated process Y(t)=X(l(t)) where X(t) is a Markovian diffusion. The corresponding time-evolution of the marginal density function of Y(t) is governed by a non-Markovian Fokker-Planck equation which involves the same memory kernel K(t). We developed several applications and derived the exact solutions. Moreover, we considered different stochastic models for the given equations, providing path simulations.

Structure, Dynamics and Reactivity in the Organic Solid State: Anthracene Derivatives and Charge Transfer Crystals

The work presented in this thesis tackles some important points concerning the collective properties of two typical categories of molecular crystals, i.e., anthracene derivatives and charge transfer crystals. Anthracene derivatives have constituted the class of materials from which systematical investigations of crystal-to-crystal photodimerization reactions started, developed and have been the subject of a new awakening in the recent years. In this work some of these compounds, namely, 9-cyanoanthacene, 9-anthacenecarboxylic acid and 9-methylanthracene, have been selected as model systems for a phenomenological approach to some key properties of the solid state, investigated by spectroscopic methods. The present results show that, on the basis of the solid state organization and the chemical nature of each compound, photo-reaction dynamics and kinetics display distinctive behaviors, which allows for a classification of the various processes in topochemical, non topochemical, reversible or topophysical. The second part of the thesis was focused on charge transfer crystals, binary systems formed by stoichiometric combinations of the charge donating perylene (D) and the charge accepting tetracyano-quinodimethane (A), this latter also in its fluorinated derivatives. The work was focused on the growth of single crystals, some of which not yet reported in the literature, by PVT technique. Structural and spectroscopic characterizations have been performed, with the aim of determining the degree of charge transfer between donor and acceptor in the co-crystals. An interesting outcome of the systematic search performed in this work is the definition of the experimental conditions which drive the crystal growth of the binary systems either towards the low (1:1) or the high ratio (3:1 or 3:2) stoichiometries.

Regulation of SRC-3 localization and dynamics by phosphorylation during ERα-dependent transcriptional activation

Transcription is controlled by promoter-selective transcriptional factors (TFs), which bind to cis-regulatory enhancers elements, termed hormone response elements (HREs), in a specific subset of genes. Regulation by these factors involves either the recruitment of coactivators or corepressors and direct interaction with the basal transcriptional machinery (1). Hormone-activated nuclear receptors (NRs) are well characterized transcriptional factors (2) that bind to the promoters of their target genes and recruit primary and secondary coactivator proteins which possess many enzymatic activities required for gene expression (1,3,4). In the present study, using single-cell high-resolution fluorescent microscopy and high throughput microscopy (HTM) coupled to computational imaging analysis, we investigated transcriptional regulation controlled by the estrogen receptor alpha (ERalpha), in terms of large scale chromatin remodeling and interaction with the associated coactivator SRC-3 (Steroid Receptor Coactivator-3), a member of p160 family (28) primary coactivators. ERalpha is a steroid-dependent transcriptional factor (16) that belongs to the NRs superfamily (2,3) and, in response to the hormone 17-ß estradiol (E2), regulates transcription of distinct target genes involved in development, puberty, and homeostasis (8,16). ERalpha spends most of its lifetime in the nucleus and undergoes a rapid (within minutes) intranuclear redistribution following the addition of either agonist or antagonist (17,18,19). We designed a HeLa cell line (PRL-HeLa), engineered with a chromosomeintegrated reporter gene array (PRL-array) containing multicopy hormone response-binding elements for ERalpha that are derived from the physiological enhancer/promoter region of the prolactin gene. Following GFP-ER transfection of PRL-HeLa cells, we were able to observe in situ ligand dependent (i) recruitment to the array of the receptor and associated coregulators, (ii) chromatin remodeling, and (iii) direct transcriptional readout of the reporter gene. Addition of E2 causes a visible opening (decondensation) of the PRL-array, colocalization of RNA Polymerase II, and transcriptional readout of the reporter gene, detected by mRNA FISH. On the contrary, when cells were treated with an ERalpha antagonist (Tamoxifen or ICI), a dramatic condensation of the PRL-array was observed, displacement of RNA Polymerase II, and complete decreasing in the transcriptional FISH signal. All p160 family coactivators (28) colocalize with ERalpha at the PRL-array. Steroid Receptor Coactivator-3 (SRC-3/AIB1/ACTR/pCIP/RAC3/TRAM1) is a p160 family member and a known oncogenic protein (4,34). SRC-3 is regulated by a variety of posttranslational modifications, including methylation, phosphorylation, acetylation, ubiquitination and sumoylation (4,35). These events have been shown to be important for its interaction with other coactivator proteins and NRs and for its oncogenic potential (37,39). A number of extracellular signaling molecules, like steroid hormones, growth factors and cytokines, induce SRC-3 phosphorylation (40). These actions are mediated by a wide range of kinases, including extracellular-regulated kinase 1 and 2 (ERK1-2), c-Jun N-terminal kinase, p38 MAPK, and IkB kinases (IKKs) (41,42,43). Here, we report SRC-3 to be a nucleocytoplasmic shuttling protein, whose cellular localization is regulated by phosphorylation and interaction with ERalpha. Using a combination of high throughput and fluorescence microscopy, we show that both chemical inhibition (with U0126) and siRNA downregulation of the MAP/ERK1/2 kinase (MEK1/2) pathway induce a cytoplasmic shift in SRC-3 localization, whereas stimulation by EGF signaling enhances its nuclear localization by inducing phosphorylation at T24, S857, and S860, known partecipants in the regulation of SRC-3 activity (39). Accordingly, the cytoplasmic localization of a non-phosphorylatable SRC-3 mutant further supports these results. In the presence of ERalpha, U0126 also dramatically reduces: hormone-dependent colocalization of ERalpha and SRC-3 in the nucleus; formation of ER-SRC-3 coimmunoprecipitation complex in cell lysates; localization of SRC-3 at the ER-targeted prolactin promoter array (PRL-array) and transcriptional activity. Finally, we show that SRC-3 can also function as a cotransporter, facilitating the nuclear-cytoplasmic shuttling of estrogen receptor. While a wealth of studies have revealed the molecular functions of NRs and coregulators, there is a paucity of data on how these functions are spatiotemporally organized in the cellular context. Technically and conceptually, our findings have a new impact upon evaluating gene transcriptional control and mechanisms of action of gene regulators.

Perturbative and non perturbative effects in the Standard Model and orbifolded ADS/CFT based theories

We study some perturbative and nonperturbative effects in the framework of the Standard Model of particle physics. In particular we consider the time dependence of the Higgs vacuum expectation value given by the dynamics of the StandardModel and study the non-adiabatic production of both bosons and fermions, which is intrinsically non-perturbative. In theHartree approximation, we analyze the general expressions that describe the dissipative dynamics due to the backreaction of the produced particles. Then, we solve numerically some relevant cases for the Standard Model phenomenology in the regime of relatively small oscillations of the Higgs vacuum expectation value (vev). As perturbative effects, we consider the leading logarithmic resummation in small Bjorken x QCD, concentrating ourselves on the Nc dependence of the Green functions associated to reggeized gluons. Here the eigenvalues of the BKP kernel for states of more than three reggeized gluons are unknown in general, contrary to the large Nc limit (planar limit) case where the problem becomes integrable. In this contest we consider a 4-gluon kernel for a finite number of colors and define some simple toy models for the configuration space dynamics, which are directly solvable with group theoretical methods. In particular we study the depencence of the spectrum of thesemodelswith respect to the number of colors andmake comparisons with the planar limit case. In the final part we move on the study of theories beyond the Standard Model, considering models built on AdS5 S5/Γ orbifold compactifications of the type IIB superstring, where Γ is the abelian group Zn. We present an appealing three family N = 0 SUSY model with n = 7 for the order of the orbifolding group. This result in a modified Pati–Salam Model which reduced to the StandardModel after symmetry breaking and has interesting phenomenological consequences for LHC.

Numerical simulations of magma chamber dynamics at Campi Flegrei, and associated seismicity, deformation and gravity changes

Understanding the complex relationships between quantities measured by volcanic monitoring network and shallow magma processes is a crucial headway for the comprehension of volcanic processes and a more realistic evaluation of the associated hazard. This question is very relevant at Campi Flegrei, a volcanic quiescent caldera immediately north-west of Napoli (Italy). The system activity shows a high fumarole release and periodic ground slow movement (bradyseism) with high seismicity. This activity, with the high people density and the presence of military and industrial buildings, makes Campi Flegrei one of the areas with higher volcanic hazard in the world. In such a context my thesis has been focused on magma dynamics due to the refilling of shallow magma chambers, and on the geophysical signals detectable by seismic, deformative and gravimetric monitoring networks that are associated with this phenomenologies. Indeed, the refilling of magma chambers is a process frequently occurring just before a volcanic eruption; therefore, the faculty of identifying this dynamics by means of recorded signal analysis is important to evaluate the short term volcanic hazard. The space-time evolution of dynamics due to injection of new magma in the magma chamber has been studied performing numerical simulations with, and implementing additional features in, the code GALES (Longo et al., 2006), recently developed and still on the upgrade at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia in Pisa (Italy). GALES is a finite element code based on a physico-mathematical two dimensional, transient model able to treat fluids as multiphase homogeneous mixtures, compressible to incompressible. The fundamental equations of mass, momentum and energy balance are discretised both in time and space using the Galerkin Least-Squares and discontinuity-capturing stabilisation technique. The physical properties of the mixture are computed as a function of local conditions of magma composition, pressure and temperature.The model features enable to study a broad range of phenomenologies characterizing pre and sin-eruptive magma dynamics in a wide domain from the volcanic crater to deep magma feeding zones. The study of displacement field associated with the simulated fluid dynamics has been carried out with a numerical code developed by the Geophysical group at the University College Dublin (O’Brien and Bean, 2004b), with whom we started a very profitable collaboration. In this code, the seismic wave propagation in heterogeneous media with free surface (e.g. the Earth’s surface) is simulated using a discrete elastic lattice where particle interactions are controlled by the Hooke’s law. This method allows to consider medium heterogeneities and complex topography. The initial and boundary conditions for the simulations have been defined within a coordinate project (INGV-DPC 2004-06 V3_2 “Research on active volcanoes, precursors, scenarios, hazard and risk - Campi Flegrei”), to which this thesis contributes, and many researchers experienced on Campi Flegrei in volcanological, seismic, petrological, geochemical fields, etc. collaborate. Numerical simulations of magma and rock dynamis have been coupled as described in the thesis. The first part of the thesis consists of a parametric study aimed at understanding the eect of the presence in magma of carbon dioxide in magma in the convection dynamics. Indeed, the presence of this volatile was relevant in many Campi Flegrei eruptions, including some eruptions commonly considered as reference for a future activity of this volcano. A set of simulations considering an elliptical magma chamber, compositionally uniform, refilled from below by a magma with volatile content equal or dierent from that of the resident magma has been performed. To do this, a multicomponent non-ideal magma saturation model (Papale et al., 2006) that considers the simultaneous presence of CO2 and H2O, has been implemented in GALES. Results show that the presence of CO2 in the incoming magma increases its buoyancy force promoting convection ad mixing. The simulated dynamics produce pressure transients with frequency and amplitude in the sensitivity range of modern geophysical monitoring networks such as the one installed at Campi Flegrei . In the second part, simulations more related with the Campi Flegrei volcanic system have been performed. The simulated system has been defined on the basis of conditions consistent with the bulk of knowledge of Campi Flegrei and in particular of the Agnano-Monte Spina eruption (4100 B.P.), commonly considered as reference for a future high intensity eruption in this area. The magmatic system has been modelled as a long dyke refilling a small shallow magma chamber; magmas with trachytic and phonolitic composition and variable volatile content of H2O and CO2 have been considered. The simulations have been carried out changing the condition of magma injection, the system configuration (magma chamber geometry, dyke size) and the resident and refilling magma composition and volatile content, in order to study the influence of these factors on the simulated dynamics. Simulation results allow to follow each step of the gas-rich magma ascent in the denser magma, highlighting the details of magma convection and mixing. In particular, the presence of more CO2 in the deep magma results in more ecient and faster dynamics. Through this simulations the variation of the gravimetric field has been determined. Afterward, the space-time distribution of stress resulting from numerical simulations have been used as boundary conditions for the simulations of the displacement field imposed by the magmatic dynamics on rocks. The properties of the simulated domain (rock density, P and S wave velocities) have been based on data from literature on active and passive tomographic experiments, obtained through a collaboration with A. Zollo at the Dept. of Physics of the Federici II Univeristy in Napoli. The elasto-dynamics simulations allow to determine the variations of the space-time distribution of deformation and the seismic signal associated with the studied magmatic dynamics. In particular, results show that these dynamics induce deformations similar to those measured at Campi Flegrei and seismic signals with energies concentrated on the typical frequency bands observed in volcanic areas. The present work shows that an approach based on the solution of equations describing the physics of processes within a magmatic fluid and the surrounding rock system is able to recognise and describe the relationships between geophysical signals detectable on the surface and deep magma dynamics. Therefore, the results suggest that the combined study of geophysical data and informations from numerical simulations can allow in a near future a more ecient evaluation of the short term volcanic hazard.

L'anno che non fu? L'anno dell'Europa e la crisi nelle relazioni transatlantiche, 1973/74

The 1970s are in the limelight of a growing historiographic attention, partly due to the recent opening of new archival resources. 1973, in particular, has a special interest in the historian’s eyes, as many are the events that happened that year: to name but a few, the Chilean coup, the October War, the ensuing oil crisis, the Vietnamese peace treaty. So it is may be not entirely surprising that not much attention has been paid to the Year of Europe, a nebulous American initiative destined to sum up to nothing practical - as Kissinger himself put it, it was destined to be the Year that never Was.1 It is my opinion, however, that its failure should not conceal its historical interest. Even though transatlantic relations have sometimes been seen as an uninterrupted history of crisis,2 in 1973 they reached what could then be considered as their unprecedented nadir. I believe that a thorough analysis of the events that during that year found the US increasingly at odds with the countries of Western Europe is worth carrying out not only to cast a new light on the dynamics of transatlantic relations but also to deepen our comprehension of the internal dynamics of the actors involved, mainly the Nixon administration and a unifying Europe. The Nixon administration had not carefully planned what the initiative actually should have amounted to, and its official announcement appears to have been one of Kissinger’s coups de theatre. Yet the Year of Europe responded to the vital priority of revitalising the relations with Western Europe, crucial ally, for too long neglected. But 1973 did not end with the solemn renewal of the Atlantic Declaration that Kissinger had sought. On the contrary, it saw, for the first time, the countries of the newly enlarged EC engaged in a real, if short-lived, solidarity on foreign policy, which highlighted the Nixon administration’s contradictions regarding European integration. Those, in addition to the numerous tensions that already strained transatlantic relations, gave birth to a downward spiral of incomprehensions and misperceptions, which the unexpected deflagration of the October war seriously worsened. However, even though the tensions did not disappear, the European front soon started to disintegrate, mainly under the strains imposed by the oil crisis. Significant changes in the leadership of the main European countries helped to get the tones back to normal. During the course of 1974-5, the substantial failure of the Euro-Arab dialogue, the Gymlich compromise, frequent and serene bilateral meetings bear witness that the worst was over.

Automated Segmentation and Non-Rigid Registration for the Quantitative Evaluation of Myocardial Perfusion from Magnetic Resonance Images

Myocardial perfusion quantification by means of Contrast-Enhanced Cardiac Magnetic Resonance images relies on time consuming frame-by-frame manual tracing of regions of interest. In this Thesis, a novel automated technique for myocardial segmentation and non-rigid registration as a basis for perfusion quantification is presented. The proposed technique is based on three steps: reference frame selection, myocardial segmentation and non-rigid registration. In the first step, the reference frame in which both endo- and epicardial segmentation will be performed is chosen. Endocardial segmentation is achieved by means of a statistical region-based level-set technique followed by a curvature-based regularization motion. Epicardial segmentation is achieved by means of an edge-based level-set technique followed again by a regularization motion. To take into account the changes in position, size and shape of myocardium throughout the sequence due to out of plane respiratory motion, a non-rigid registration algorithm is required. The proposed non-rigid registration scheme consists in a novel multiscale extension of the normalized cross-correlation algorithm in combination with level-set methods. The myocardium is then divided into standard segments. Contrast enhancement curves are computed measuring the mean pixel intensity of each segment over time, and perfusion indices are extracted from each curve. The overall approach has been tested on synthetic and real datasets. For validation purposes, the sequences have been manually traced by an experienced interpreter, and contrast enhancement curves as well as perfusion indices have been computed. Comparisons between automatically extracted and manually obtained contours and enhancement curves showed high inter-technique agreement. Comparisons of perfusion indices computed using both approaches against quantitative coronary angiography and visual interpretation demonstrated that the two technique have similar diagnostic accuracy. In conclusion, the proposed technique allows fast, automated and accurate measurement of intra-myocardial contrast dynamics, and may thus address the strong clinical need for quantitative evaluation of myocardial perfusion.

Sviluppo di un approccio congiunto fuzzy-Bayesiano per l'analisi e la modellizzazione degli ecosistemi: applicazione ad ecosistemi marini costieri.

Nell’attuale contesto di aumento degli impatti antropici e di “Global Climate Change” emerge la necessità di comprenderne i possibili effetti di questi sugli ecosistemi inquadrati come fruitori di servizi e funzioni imprescindibili sui quali si basano intere tessiture economiche e sociali. Lo studio previsionale degli ecosistemi si scontra con l’elevata complessità di questi ultimi in luogo di una altrettanto elevata scarsità di osservazioni integrate. L’approccio modellistico appare il più adatto all’analisi delle dinamiche complesse degli ecosistemi ed alla contestualizzazione complessa di risultati sperimentali ed osservazioni empiriche. L’approccio riduzionista-deterministico solitamente utilizzato nell’implementazione di modelli non si è però sin qui dimostrato in grado di raggiungere i livelli di complessità più elevati all’interno della struttura eco sistemica. La componente che meglio descrive la complessità ecosistemica è quella biotica in virtù dell’elevata dipendenza dalle altre componenti e dalle loro interazioni. In questo lavoro di tesi viene proposto un approccio modellistico stocastico basato sull’utilizzo di un compilatore naive Bayes operante in ambiente fuzzy. L’utilizzo congiunto di logica fuzzy e approccio naive Bayes è utile al processa mento del livello di complessità e conseguentemente incertezza insito negli ecosistemi. I modelli generativi ottenuti, chiamati Fuzzy Bayesian Ecological Model(FBEM) appaiono in grado di modellizare gli stati eco sistemici in funzione dell’ elevato numero di interazioni che entrano in gioco nella determinazione degli stati degli ecosistemi. Modelli FBEM sono stati utilizzati per comprendere il rischio ambientale per habitat intertidale di spiagge sabbiose in caso di eventi di flooding costiero previsti nell’arco di tempo 2010-2100. L’applicazione è stata effettuata all’interno del progetto EU “Theseus” per il quale i modelli FBEM sono stati utilizzati anche per una simulazione a lungo termine e per il calcolo dei tipping point specifici dell’habitat secondo eventi di flooding di diversa intensità.

The Dynamics of Passive Torsional Fatigue Test Rigs: Innovative Applications of Universal Joints

The dynamics of a passive back-to-back test rig have been characterised, leading to a multi-coordinate approach for the analysis of arbitrary test configurations. Universal joints have been introduced into a typical pre-loaded back-to-back system in order to produce an oscillating torsional moment in a test specimen. Two different arrangements have been investigated using a frequency-based sub-structuring approach: the receptance method. A numerical model has been developed in accordance with this theory, allowing interconnection of systems with two-coordinates and closed multi-loop schemes. The model calculates the receptance functions and modal and deflected shapes of a general system. Closed form expressions of the following individual elements have been developed: a servomotor, damped continuous shaft and a universal joint. Numerical results for specific cases have been compared with published data in literature and experimental measurements undertaken in the present work. Due to the complexity of the universal joint and its oscillating dynamic effects, a more detailed analysis of this component has been developed. Two models have been presented. The first represents the joint as two inertias connected by a massless cross-piece. The second, derived by the dynamic analysis of a spherical four-link mechanism, considers the contribution of the floating element and its gyroscopic effects. An investigation into non-linear behaviour has led to a time domain model that utilises the Runge-Kutta fourth order method for resolution of the dynamic equations. It has been demonstrated that the torsional receptances of a universal joint, derived using the simple model, result in representation of the joint as an equivalent variable inertia. In order to verify the model, a test rig has been built and experimental validation undertaken. The variable inertia of a universal joint has lead to a novel application of the component as a passive device for the balancing of inertia variations in slider-crank mechanisms.

Model reduction techniques in flexible multibody dynamics with application to engine cranktrain simulation

The development of a multibody model of a motorbike engine cranktrain is presented in this work, with an emphasis on flexible component model reduction. A modelling methodology based upon the adoption of non-ideal joints at interface locations, and the inclusion of component flexibility, is developed: both are necessary tasks if one wants to capture dynamic effects which arise in lightweight, high-speed applications. With regard to the first topic, both a ball bearing model and a journal bearing model are implemented, in order to properly capture the dynamic effects of the main connections in the system: angular contact ball bearings are modelled according to a five-DOF nonlinear scheme in order to grasp the crankshaft main bearings behaviour, while an impedance-based hydrodynamic bearing model is implemented providing an enhanced operation prediction at the conrod big end locations. Concerning the second matter, flexible models of the crankshaft and the connecting rod are produced. The well-established Craig-Bampton reduction technique is adopted as a general framework to obtain reduced model representations which are suitable for the subsequent multibody analyses. A particular component mode selection procedure is implemented, based on the concept of Effective Interface Mass, allowing an assessment of the accuracy of the reduced models prior to the nonlinear simulation phase. In addition, a procedure to alleviate the effects of modal truncation, based on the Modal Truncation Augmentation approach, is developed. In order to assess the performances of the proposed modal reduction schemes, numerical tests are performed onto the crankshaft and the conrod models in both frequency and modal domains. A multibody model of the cranktrain is eventually assembled and simulated using a commercial software. Numerical results are presented, demonstrating the effectiveness of the implemented flexible model reduction techniques. The advantages over the conventional frequency-based truncation approach are discussed.

Model reduction of stochastic groundwater flow and transport processes

This work presents a comprehensive methodology for the reduction of analytical or numerical stochastic models characterized by uncertain input parameters or boundary conditions. The technique, based on the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) theory, represents a versatile solution to solve direct or inverse problems related to propagation of uncertainty. The potentiality of the methodology is assessed investigating different applicative contexts related to groundwater flow and transport scenarios, such as global sensitivity analysis, risk analysis and model calibration. This is achieved by implementing a numerical code, developed in the MATLAB environment, presented here in its main features and tested with literature examples. The procedure has been conceived under flexibility and efficiency criteria in order to ensure its adaptability to different fields of engineering; it has been applied to different case studies related to flow and transport in porous media. Each application is associated with innovative elements such as (i) new analytical formulations describing motion and displacement of non-Newtonian fluids in porous media, (ii) application of global sensitivity analysis to a high-complexity numerical model inspired by a real case of risk of radionuclide migration in the subsurface environment, and (iii) development of a novel sensitivity-based strategy for parameter calibration and experiment design in laboratory scale tracer transport.

Modeling the spatial dynamics of economic models

The advances that have been characterizing spatial econometrics in recent years are mostly theoretical and have not found an extensive empirical application yet. In this work we aim at supplying a review of the main tools of spatial econometrics and to show an empirical application for one of the most recently introduced estimators. Despite the numerous alternatives that the econometric theory provides for the treatment of spatial (and spatiotemporal) data, empirical analyses are still limited by the lack of availability of the correspondent routines in statistical and econometric software. Spatiotemporal modeling represents one of the most recent developments in spatial econometric theory and the finite sample properties of the estimators that have been proposed are currently being tested in the literature. We provide a comparison between some estimators (a quasi-maximum likelihood, QML, estimator and some GMM-type estimators) for a fixed effects dynamic panel data model under certain conditions, by means of a Monte Carlo simulation analysis. We focus on different settings, which are characterized either by fully stable or quasi-unit root series. We also investigate the extent of the bias that is caused by a non-spatial estimation of a model when the data are characterized by different degrees of spatial dependence. Finally, we provide an empirical application of a QML estimator for a time-space dynamic model which includes a temporal, a spatial and a spatiotemporal lag of the dependent variable. This is done by choosing a relevant and prolific field of analysis, in which spatial econometrics has only found limited space so far, in order to explore the value-added of considering the spatial dimension of the data. In particular, we study the determinants of cropland value in Midwestern U.S.A. in the years 1971-2009, by taking the present value model (PVM) as the theoretical framework of analysis.

Hydrodynamical simulations of early-type galaxies: effects of galaxy shape and stellar dynamics on hot coronae

Early-Type galaxies (ETGs) are embedded in hot (10^6-10^7 K), X-ray emitting gaseous haloes, produced mainly by stellar winds and heated by Type Ia supernovae explosions, by the thermalization of stellar motions and occasionally by the central super-massive black hole (SMBH). In particular, the thermalization of the stellar motions is due to the interaction between the stellar and the SNIa ejecta and the hot interstellar medium (ISM) already residing in the ETG. A number of different astrophysical phenomena determine the X-ray properties of the hot ISM, such as stellar population formation and evolution, galaxy structure and internal kinematics, Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) presence, and environmental effects. With the aid of high-resolution hydrodynamical simulations performed on state-of-the-art galaxy models, in this Thesis we focus on the effects of galaxy shape, stellar kinematics and star formation on the evolution of the X-ray coronae of ETGs. Numerical simulations show that the relative importance of flattening and rotation are functions of the galaxy mass: at low galaxy masses, adding flattening and rotation induces a galactic wind, thus lowering the X-ray luminosity; at high galaxy masses the angular momentum conservation keeps the central regions of rotating galaxies at low density, whereas in non-rotating models a denser and brighter atmosphere is formed. The same dependence from the galaxy mass is present in the effects of star formation (SF): in light galaxies SF contributes to increase the spread in Lx, while at high galaxy masses the halo X-ray properties are marginally sensitive to SF effects. In every case, the star formation rate at the present epoch quite agrees with observations, and the massive, cold gaseous discs are partially or completely consumed by SF on a time-scale of few Gyr, excluding the presence of young stellar discs at the present epoch.

Transcriptional dynamics of the human DMD locus

The human DMD locus encodes dystrophin protein. Absence or reduced levels of dystrophin (DMD or BMD phenotype, respectively) lead to progressive muscle wasting. Little is known about the complex coordination of dystrophin expression and its transcriptional regulation is a field of intense interest. In this work we found that DMD locus harbours multiple long non coding RNAs which orchestrate and control transcription of muscle dystrophin mRNA isoforms. These lncRNAs are tissue-specific and highly expressed during myogenesis, suggesting a possible role in tissue-specific expression of DMD gene isoforms. Their forced ectopic expression in human muscle and neuronal cells leads to a specific and negative regulation of endogenous dystrophin full lenght isoforms. An intriguing aspect regarding the transcription of the DMD locus is the gene size (2.4Mb). The mechanism that ensures the complete synthesis of the primary transcript and the coordinated splicing of 79 exons is still completely unknown. By ChIP-on-chip analyses, we discovered novel regions never been involved before in the transcription regulation of the DMD locus. Specifically, we observed enrichments for Pol II, P-Ser2, P-Ser5, Ac-H3 and 2Me-H3K4 in an intronic region of 3Kb (approximately 21Kb) downstream of the end of DMD exon 52 and in a region of 4Kb spanning the DMD exon 62. Interestingly, this latter region and the TSS of Dp71 are strongly marked by 3Me-H3K36, an histone modification associated with the regulation of splicing process. Furthermore, we also observed strong presence of open chromatin marks (Ac-H3 and 2Me-H3K4) around intron 34 and the exon 45 without presence of RNA pol II. We speculate that these two regions may exert an enhancer-like function on Dp427m promoter, although further investigations are necessary. Finally, we investigated the nuclear-cytoplasmic compartmentalization of the muscular dystrophin mRNA and, specifically, we verified whether the exon skipping therapy could influence its cellular distribution.

Novel investigation methods in Computational Social Dynamics and Complex Systems

In this thesis the evolution of the techno-social systems analysis methods will be reported, through the explanation of the various research experience directly faced. The first case presented is a research based on data mining of a dataset of words association named Human Brain Cloud: validation will be faced and, also through a non-trivial modeling, a better understanding of language properties will be presented. Then, a real complex system experiment will be introduced: the WideNoise experiment in the context of the EveryAware european project. The project and the experiment course will be illustrated and data analysis will be displayed. Then the Experimental Tribe platform for social computation will be introduced . It has been conceived to help researchers in the implementation of web experiments, and aims also to catalyze the cumulative growth of experimental methodologies and the standardization of tools cited above. In the last part, three other research experience which already took place on the Experimental Tribe platform will be discussed in detail, from the design of the experiment to the analysis of the results and, eventually, to the modeling of the systems involved. The experiments are: CityRace, about the measurement of human traffic-facing strategies; laPENSOcosì, aiming to unveil the political opinion structure; AirProbe, implemented again in the EveryAware project framework, which consisted in monitoring air quality opinion shift of a community informed about local air pollution. At the end, the evolution of the technosocial systems investigation methods shall emerge together with the opportunities and the threats offered by this new scientific path.