Modelli non lineari statici e dinamici su dati microeconomici: analisi delle condizioni finanziarie delle famiglie italiane

The thesis studies the economic and financial conditions of Italian households, by using microeconomic data of the Survey on Household Income and Wealth (SHIW) over the period 1998-2006. It develops along two lines of enquiry. First it studies the determinants of households holdings of assets and liabilities and estimates their correlation degree. After a review of the literature, it estimates two non-linear multivariate models on the interactions between assets and liabilities with repeated cross-sections. Second, it analyses households financial difficulties. It defines a quantitative measure of financial distress and tests, by means of non-linear dynamic probit models, whether the probability of experiencing financial difficulties is persistent over time. Chapter 1 provides a critical review of the theoretical and empirical literature on the estimation of assets and liabilities holdings, on their interactions and on households net wealth. The review stresses the fact that a large part of the literature explain households debt holdings as a function, among others, of net wealth, an assumption that runs into possible endogeneity problems. Chapter 2 defines two non-linear multivariate models to study the interactions between assets and liabilities held by Italian households. Estimation refers to a pooling of cross-sections of SHIW. The first model is a bivariate tobit that estimates factors affecting assets and liabilities and their degree of correlation with results coherent with theoretical expectations. To tackle the presence of non normality and heteroskedasticity in the error term, generating non consistent tobit estimators, semi-parametric estimates are provided that confirm the results of the tobit model. The second model is a quadrivariate probit on three different assets (safe, risky and real) and total liabilities; the results show the expected patterns of interdependence suggested by theoretical considerations. Chapter 3 reviews the methodologies for estimating non-linear dynamic panel data models, drawing attention to the problems to be dealt with to obtain consistent estimators. Specific attention is given to the initial condition problem raised by the inclusion of the lagged dependent variable in the set of explanatory variables. The advantage of using dynamic panel data models lies in the fact that they allow to simultaneously account for true state dependence, via the lagged variable, and unobserved heterogeneity via individual effects specification. Chapter 4 applies the models reviewed in Chapter 3 to analyse financial difficulties of Italian households, by using information on net wealth as provided in the panel component of the SHIW. The aim is to test whether households persistently experience financial difficulties over time. A thorough discussion is provided of the alternative approaches proposed by the literature (subjective/qualitative indicators versus quantitative indexes) to identify households in financial distress. Households in financial difficulties are identified as those holding amounts of net wealth lower than the value corresponding to the first quartile of net wealth distribution. Estimation is conducted via four different methods: the pooled probit model, the random effects probit model with exogenous initial conditions, the Heckman model and the recently developed Wooldridge model. Results obtained from all estimators accept the null hypothesis of true state dependence and show that, according with the literature, less sophisticated models, namely the pooled and exogenous models, over-estimate such persistence.

Modeling hydrothermal system: deriving observables and hydrothermal instability in volcanic and non-volcanic setting

Hydrothermal fluids are a fundamental resource for understanding and monitoring volcanic and non-volcanic systems. This thesis is focused on the study of hydrothermal system through numerical modeling with the geothermal simulator TOUGH2. Several simulations are presented, and geophysical and geochemical observables, arising from fluids circulation, are analyzed in detail throughout the thesis. In a volcanic setting, fluids feeding fumaroles and hot spring may play a key role in the hazard evaluation. The evolution of the fluids circulation is caused by a strong interaction between magmatic and hydrothermal systems. A simultaneous analysis of different geophysical and geochemical observables is a sound approach for interpreting monitored data and to infer a consistent conceptual model. Analyzed observables are ground displacement, gravity changes, electrical conductivity, amount, composition and temperature of the emitted gases at surface, and extent of degassing area. Results highlight the different temporal response of the considered observables, as well as the different radial pattern of variation. However, magnitude, temporal response and radial pattern of these signals depend not only on the evolution of fluid circulation, but a main role is played by the considered rock properties. Numerical simulations highlight differences that arise from the assumption of different permeabilities, for both homogeneous and heterogeneous systems. Rock properties affect hydrothermal fluid circulation, controlling both the range of variation and the temporal evolution of the observable signals. Low temperature fumaroles and low discharge rate may be affected by atmospheric conditions. Detailed parametric simulations were performed, aimed to understand the effects of system properties, such as permeability and gas reservoir overpressure, on diffuse degassing when air temperature and barometric pressure changes are applied to the ground surface. Hydrothermal circulation, however, is not only a characteristic of volcanic system. Hot fluids may be involved in several mankind problems, such as studies on geothermal engineering, nuclear waste propagation in porous medium, and Geological Carbon Sequestration (GCS). The current concept for large-scale GCS is the direct injection of supercritical carbon dioxide into deep geological formations which typically contain brine. Upward displacement of such brine from deep reservoirs driven by pressure increases resulting from carbon dioxide injection may occur through abandoned wells, permeable faults or permeable channels. Brine intrusion into aquifers may degrade groundwater resources. Numerical results show that pressure rise drives dense water up to the conduits, and does not necessarily result in continuous flow. Rather, overpressure leads to new hydrostatic equilibrium if fluids are initially density stratified. If warm and salty fluid does not cool passing through the conduit, an oscillatory solution is then possible. Parameter studies delineate steady-state (static) and oscillatory solutions.

The role of medial parieto occipital cortex in visuospatial attention and reach planning: electrophysiological studies in human and non-human primates

We usually perform actions in a dynamic environment and changes in the location of a target for an upcoming action require both covert shifts of attention and motor planning update. In this study we tested whether, similarly to oculomotor areas that provide signals for overt and covert attention shifts, covert attention shifts modulate activity in cortical area V6A, which provides a bridge between visual signals and arm-motor control. We performed single cell recordings in monkeys trained to fixate straight-ahead while shifting attention outward to a peripheral cue and inward again to the fixation point. We found that neurons in V6A are influenced by spatial attention demonstrating that visual, motor, and attentional responses can occur in combination in single neurons of V6A. This modulation in an area primarily involved in visuo-motor transformation for reaching suggests that also reach-related regions could directly contribute in the shifts of spatial attention necessary to plan and control goal-directed arm movements. Moreover, to test whether V6A is causally involved in these processes, we have performed a human study using on-line repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation over the putative human V6A (pV6A) during an attention and a reaching task requiring covert shifts of attention and reaching movements towards cued targets in space. We demonstrate that the pV6A is causally involved in attention reorienting to target detection and that this process interferes with the execution of reaching movements towards unattended targets. The current findings suggest the direct involvement of the action-related dorso-medial visual stream in attentional processes, and a more specific role of V6A in attention reorienting. Therefore, we propose that attention signals are used by the V6A to rapidly update the current motor plan or the ongoing action when a behaviorally relevant object unexpectedly appears at an unattended location.

Non-Linear Analysis and Design of Synchronous Bearingless Multiphase Permanent Magnet Machines and Drives

A two-dimensional model to analyze the distribution of magnetic fields in the airgap of a PM electrical machines is studied. A numerical algorithm for non-linear magnetic analysis of multiphase surface-mounted PM machines with semi-closed slots is developed, based on the equivalent magnetic circuit method. By using a modular structure geometry, whose the basic element can be duplicated, it allows to design whatever typology of windings distribution. In comparison to a FEA, permits a reduction in computing time and to directly changing the values of the parameters in a user interface, without re-designing the model. Output torque and radial forces acting on the moving part of the machine can be calculated. In addition, an analytical model for radial forces calculation in multiphase bearingless Surface-Mounted Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motors (SPMSM) is presented. It allows to predict amplitude and direction of the force, depending on the values of torque current, of levitation current and of rotor position. It is based on the space vectors method, letting the analysis of the machine also during transients. The calculations are conducted by developing the analytical functions in Fourier series, taking all the possible interactions between stator and rotor mmf harmonic components into account and allowing to analyze the effects of electrical and geometrical quantities of the machine, being parametrized. The model is implemented in the design of a control system for bearingless machines, as an accurate electromagnetic model integrated in a three-dimensional mechanical model, where one end of the motor shaft is constrained to simulate the presence of a mechanical bearing, while the other is free, only supported by the radial forces developed in the interactions between magnetic fields, to realize a bearingless system with three degrees of freedom. The complete model represents the design of the experimental system to be realized in the laboratory.

Aging of nuclear power plant cables: in search of non-destructive diagnostic quantities

The safety systems of nuclear power plants rely on low-voltage power, instrumentation and control cables. Inside the containment area, cables operate in harsh environments, characterized by relatively high temperature and gamma-irradiation. As these cables are related to fundamental safety systems, they must be able to withstand unexpected accident conditions and, therefore, their condition assessment is of utmost importance as plants age and lifetime extensions are required. Nowadays, the integrity and functionality of these cables are monitored mainly through destructive test which requires specific laboratory. The investigation of electrical aging markers which can provide information about the state of the cable by non-destructive testing methods would improve significantly the present diagnostic techniques. This work has been made within the framework of the ADVANCE (Aging Diagnostic and Prognostics of Low-Voltage I\&C Cables) project, a FP7 European program. This Ph.D. thesis aims at studying the impact of aging on cable electrical parameters, in order to understand the evolution of the electrical properties associated with cable degradation. The identification of suitable aging markers requires the comparison of the electrical property variation with the physical/chemical degradation mechanisms of polymers for different insulating materials and compositions. The feasibility of non-destructive electrical condition monitoring techniques as potential substitutes for destructive methods will be finally discussed studying the correlation between electrical and mechanical properties. In this work, the electrical properties of cable insulators are monitored and characterized mainly by dielectric spectroscopy, polarization/depolarization current analysis and space charge distribution. Among these techniques, dielectric spectroscopy showed the most promising results; by means of dielectric spectroscopy it is possible to identify the frequency range where the properties are more sensitive to aging. In particular, the imaginary part of permittivity at high frequency, which is related to oxidation, has been identified as the most suitable aging marker based on electrical quantities.