Estimation of Quasi-Rational DSGE Models

Small-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium have been treated as the benchmark of much of the monetary policy literature, given their ability to explain the impact of monetary policy on output, inflation and financial markets. One cause of the empirical failure of New Keynesian models is partially due to the Rational Expectations (RE) paradigm, which entails a tight structure on the dynamics of the system. Under this hypothesis, the agents are assumed to know the data genereting process. In this paper, we propose the econometric analysis of New Keynesian DSGE models under an alternative expectations generating paradigm, which can be regarded as an intermediate position between rational expectations and learning, nameley an adapted version of the "Quasi-Rational" Expectatations (QRE) hypothesis. Given the agents' statistical model, we build a pseudo-structural form from the baseline system of Euler equations, imposing that the length of the reduced form is the same as in the `best' statistical model.

Development of human visual system analysis for the implementation of a new instrument for flicker measurement

Flicker is a power quality phenomenon that applies to cycle instability of light intensity resulting from supply voltage fluctuation, which, in turn can be caused by disturbances introduced during power generation, transmission or distribution. The standard EN 61000-4-15 which has been recently adopted also by the IEEE as IEEE Standard 1453 relies on the analysis of the supply voltage which is processed according to a suitable model of the lamp – human eye – brain chain. As for the lamp, an incandescent 60 W, 230 V, 50 Hz source is assumed. As far as the human eye – brain model is concerned, it is represented by the so-called flicker curve. Such a curve was determined several years ago by statistically analyzing the results of tests where people were subjected to flicker with different combinations of magnitude and frequency. The limitations of this standard approach to flicker evaluation are essentially two. First, the provided index of annoyance Pst can be related to an actual tiredness of the human visual system only if such an incandescent lamp is used. Moreover, the implemented response to flicker is “subjective” given that it relies on the people answers about their feelings. In the last 15 years, many scientific contributions have tackled these issues by investigating the possibility to develop a novel model of the eye-brain response to flicker and overcome the strict dependence of the standard on the kind of the light source. In this light of fact, this thesis is aimed at presenting an important contribution for a new Flickermeter. An improved visual system model using a physiological parameter that is the mean value of the pupil diameter, has been presented, thus allowing to get a more “objective” representation of the response to flicker. The system used to both generate flicker and measure the pupil diameter has been illustrated along with all the results of several experiments performed on the volunteers. The intent has been to demonstrate that the measurement of that geometrical parameter can give reliable information about the feeling of the human visual system to light flicker.

A new method for the estimation of the reverberation time from measured room impulse responses with application to Italian opera houses

The Schroeder's backward integration method is the most used method to extract the decay curve of an acoustic impulse response and to calculate the reverberation time from this curve. In the literature the limits and the possible improvements of this method are widely discussed. In this work a new method is proposed for the evaluation of the energy decay curve. The new method has been implemented in a Matlab toolbox. Its performance has been tested versus the most accredited literature method. The values of EDT and reverberation time extracted from the energy decay curves calculated with both methods have been compared in terms of the values themselves and in terms of their statistical representativeness. The main case study consists of nine Italian historical theatres in which acoustical measurements were performed. The comparison of the two extraction methods has also been applied to a critical case, i.e. the structural impulse responses of some building elements. The comparison underlines that both methods return a comparable value of the T30. Decreasing the range of evaluation, they reveal increasing differences; in particular, the main differences are in the first part of the decay, where the EDT is evaluated. This is a consequence of the fact that the new method returns a “locally" defined energy decay curve, whereas the Schroeder's method accumulates energy from the tail to the beginning of the impulse response. Another characteristic of the new method for the energy decay extraction curve is its independence on the background noise estimation. Finally, a statistical analysis is performed on the T30 and EDT values calculated from the impulse responses measurements in the Italian historical theatres. The aim of this evaluation is to know whether a subset of measurements could be considered representative for a complete characterization of these opera houses.