Bayesian Analysis of Linear Inverse Problems with Applications in Economics and Finance

In my PhD thesis I propose a Bayesian nonparametric estimation method for structural econometric models where the functional parameter of interest describes the economic agent's behavior. The structural parameter is characterized as the solution of a functional equation, or by using more technical words, as the solution of an inverse problem that can be either ill-posed or well-posed. From a Bayesian point of view, the parameter of interest is a random function and the solution to the inference problem is the posterior distribution of this parameter. A regular version of the posterior distribution in functional spaces is characterized. However, the infinite dimension of the considered spaces causes a problem of non continuity of the solution and then a problem of inconsistency, from a frequentist point of view, of the posterior distribution (i.e. problem of ill-posedness). The contribution of this essay is to propose new methods to deal with this problem of ill-posedness. The first one consists in adopting a Tikhonov regularization scheme in the construction of the posterior distribution so that I end up with a new object that I call regularized posterior distribution and that I guess it is solution of the inverse problem. The second approach consists in specifying a prior distribution on the parameter of interest of the g-prior type. Then, I detect a class of models for which the prior distribution is able to correct for the ill-posedness also in infinite dimensional problems. I study asymptotic properties of these proposed solutions and I prove that, under some regularity condition satisfied by the true value of the parameter of interest, they are consistent in a "frequentist" sense. Once I have set the general theory, I apply my bayesian nonparametric methodology to different estimation problems. First, I apply this estimator to deconvolution and to hazard rate, density and regression estimation. Then, I consider the estimation of an Instrumental Regression that is useful in micro-econometrics when we have to deal with problems of endogeneity. Finally, I develop an application in finance: I get the bayesian estimator for the equilibrium asset pricing functional by using the Euler equation defined in the Lucas'(1978) tree-type models.

Inverse Static Analysis of Massive Parallel Arrays of Three-State Actuators via Artificial Intelligence

Massive parallel robots (MPRs) driven by discrete actuators are force regulated robots that undergo continuous motions despite being commanded through a finite number of states only. Designing a real-time control of such systems requires fast and efficient methods for solving their inverse static analysis (ISA), which is a challenging problem and the subject of this thesis. In particular, five Artificial intelligence methods are proposed to investigate the on-line computation and the generalization error of ISA problem of a class of MPRs featuring three-state force actuators and one degree of revolute motion.

Tools and methods for the quality assurance of force platforms in human movement analysis

The human movement analysis (HMA) aims to measure the abilities of a subject to stand or to walk. In the field of HMA, tests are daily performed in research laboratories, hospitals and clinics, aiming to diagnose a disease, distinguish between disease entities, monitor the progress of a treatment and predict the outcome of an intervention [Brand and Crowninshield, 1981; Brand, 1987; Baker, 2006]. To achieve these purposes, clinicians and researchers use measurement devices, like force platforms, stereophotogrammetric systems, accelerometers, baropodometric insoles, etc. This thesis focus on the force platform (FP) and in particular on the quality assessment of the FP data. The principal objective of our work was the design and the experimental validation of a portable system for the in situ calibration of FPs. The thesis is structured as follows: Chapter 1. Description of the physical principles used for the functioning of a FP: how these principles are used to create force transducers, such as strain gauges and piezoelectrics transducers. Then, description of the two category of FPs, three- and six-component, the signals acquisition (hardware structure), and the signals calibration. Finally, a brief description of the use of FPs in HMA, for balance or gait analysis. Chapter 2. Description of the inverse dynamics, the most common method used in the field of HMA. This method uses the signals measured by a FP to estimate kinetic quantities, such as joint forces and moments. The measures of these variables can not be taken directly, unless very invasive techniques; consequently these variables can only be estimated using indirect techniques, as the inverse dynamics. Finally, a brief description of the sources of error, present in the gait analysis. Chapter 3. State of the art in the FP calibration. The selected literature is divided in sections, each section describes: systems for the periodic control of the FP accuracy; systems for the error reduction in the FP signals; systems and procedures for the construction of a FP. In particular is detailed described a calibration system designed by our group, based on the theoretical method proposed by ?. This system was the “starting point” for the new system presented in this thesis. Chapter 4. Description of the new system, divided in its parts: 1) the algorithm; 2) the device; and 3) the calibration procedure, for the correct performing of the calibration process. The algorithm characteristics were optimized by a simulation approach, the results are here presented. In addiction, the different versions of the device are described. Chapter 5. Experimental validation of the new system, achieved by testing it on 4 commercial FPs. The effectiveness of the calibration was verified by measuring, before and after calibration, the accuracy of the FPs in measuring the center of pressure of an applied force. The new system can estimate local and global calibration matrices; by local and global calibration matrices, the non–linearity of the FPs was quantified and locally compensated. Further, a non–linear calibration is proposed. This calibration compensates the non– linear effect in the FP functioning, due to the bending of its upper plate. The experimental results are presented. Chapter 6. Influence of the FP calibration on the estimation of kinetic quantities, with the inverse dynamics approach. Chapter 7. The conclusions of this thesis are presented: need of a calibration of FPs and consequential enhancement in the kinetic data quality. Appendix: Calibration of the LC used in the presented system. Different calibration set–up of a 3D force transducer are presented, and is proposed the optimal set–up, with particular attention to the compensation of non–linearities. The optimal set–up is verified by experimental results.

Multiresolution spherical wavelet analysis in global seismic tomography

Every seismic event produces seismic waves which travel throughout the Earth. Seismology is the science of interpreting measurements to derive information about the structure of the Earth. Seismic tomography is the most powerful tool for determination of 3D structure of deep Earth's interiors. Tomographic models obtained at the global and regional scales are an underlying tool for determination of geodynamical state of the Earth, showing evident correlation with other geophysical and geological characteristics. The global tomographic images of the Earth can be written as a linear combinations of basis functions from a specifically chosen set, defining the model parameterization. A number of different parameterizations are commonly seen in literature: seismic velocities in the Earth have been expressed, for example, as combinations of spherical harmonics or by means of the simpler characteristic functions of discrete cells. With this work we are interested to focus our attention on this aspect, evaluating a new type of parameterization, performed by means of wavelet functions. It is known from the classical Fourier theory that a signal can be expressed as the sum of a, possibly infinite, series of sines and cosines. This sum is often referred as a Fourier expansion. The big disadvantage of a Fourier expansion is that it has only frequency resolution and no time resolution. The Wavelet Analysis (or Wavelet Transform) is probably the most recent solution to overcome the shortcomings of Fourier analysis. The fundamental idea behind this innovative analysis is to study signal according to scale. Wavelets, in fact, are mathematical functions that cut up data into different frequency components, and then study each component with resolution matched to its scale, so they are especially useful in the analysis of non stationary process that contains multi-scale features, discontinuities and sharp strike. Wavelets are essentially used in two ways when they are applied in geophysical process or signals studies: 1) as a basis for representation or characterization of process; 2) as an integration kernel for analysis to extract information about the process. These two types of applications of wavelets in geophysical field, are object of study of this work. At the beginning we use the wavelets as basis to represent and resolve the Tomographic Inverse Problem. After a briefly introduction to seismic tomography theory, we assess the power of wavelet analysis in the representation of two different type of synthetic models; then we apply it to real data, obtaining surface wave phase velocity maps and evaluating its abilities by means of comparison with an other type of parametrization (i.e., block parametrization). For the second type of wavelet application we analyze the ability of Continuous Wavelet Transform in the spectral analysis, starting again with some synthetic tests to evaluate its sensibility and capability and then apply the same analysis to real data to obtain Local Correlation Maps between different model at same depth or between different profiles of the same model.

Validazione e applicazioni cliniche della metodica NIRA (Near Infrared Reflectance Analysis) per la valutazione del contenuto nutrizionale del latte materno in terapia intensiva neonatale

Phase 1: To validate Near-Infrared Reflectance Analysis (NIRA) as a fast, reliable and suitable method for routine evaluation of human milk’s nitrogen and fat content. Phase 2: To determine whether fat content, protein content and osmolality of HM before and after fortification may affect gastroesophageal reflux (GER) in symptomatic preterm infants. Patients and Methods: Phase 1: 124 samples of expressed human milk (55 from preterm mothers and 69 from term mothers) were used to validate NIRA against traditional methods (Gerber method for fat and Kjeldhal method for nitrogen). Phase 2: GER was evaluated in 17 symptomatic preterm newborns fed naïve and fortified HM by combined pH/intraluminal-impedance monitoring (pH-MII). HM fat and protein content was analysed by a Near-Infrared-Reflectance-Analysis (NIRA). HM osmolality was tested before and after fortification. GER indexes measured before and after fortification were compared, and were also related with HM fat and protein content and osmolality before and after fortification. Results: Phase 1: · A strong agreement was found between traditional methods’ and NIRA’s results (expressed as g/100 g of milk), both for fat and nitrogen content in term (mean fat content: NIRA=2.76; Gerber=2.76; mean nitrogen content: NIRA=1.88; Kjeldhal =1.92) and preterm (mean fat content: NIRA=3.56; Kjeldhal=3.52; mean nitrogen content: NIRA=1.91; Kjeldhal =1.89) mother’s milk. · Nitrogen content of the milk samples, measured by NIRA, ranged from 1.18 to 2.71 g/100 g of milk in preterm milk and from 1.48 to 2.47 in term milk; fat content ranged from 1.27 to 6.23 g/100 g of milk in preterm milk and from 1.01 to 6.01 g/100 g of milk in term milk. Phase 2: · An inverse correlation was found between naïve HM protein content and acid reflux index (RIpH: p=0.041, rho=-0.501). · After fortification, osmolality often exceeded the values recommended for infant feeds; furthermore, a statistically significant (p<.05) increase in non acid reflux indexes was observed. Conclusions: NIRA can be used as a fast, reliable and suitable tool for routine monitoring of macronutrient content of human milk. Protein content of naïve HM may influence acid GER in preterm infants. A standard fortification of HM may worsen non acid GER indexes and, due to the extreme variability in HM composition, may overcome both recommended protein intake and HM osmolality. Thus, an individualized fortification, based on the analysis of the composition of naïve HM, could optimize both nutrient intake and feeding tolerance.

Characterization of geothermal reservoirs’ parameters by inverse problem resolution and geostatistical simulations

BTES (borehole thermal energy storage)systems exchange thermal energy by conduction with the surrounding ground through borehole materials. The spatial variability of the geological properties and the space-time variability of hydrogeological conditions affect the real power rate of heat exchangers and, consequently, the amount of energy extracted from / injected into the ground. For this reason, it is not an easy task to identify the underground thermal properties to use when designing. At the current state of technology, Thermal Response Test (TRT) is the in situ test for the characterization of ground thermal properties with the higher degree of accuracy, but it doesn’t fully solve the problem of characterizing the thermal properties of a shallow geothermal reservoir, simply because it characterizes only the neighborhood of the heat exchanger at hand and only for the test duration. Different analytical and numerical models exist for the characterization of shallow geothermal reservoir, but they are still inadequate and not exhaustive: more sophisticated models must be taken into account and a geostatistical approach is needed to tackle natural variability and estimates uncertainty. The approach adopted for reservoir characterization is the “inverse problem”, typical of oil&gas field analysis. Similarly, we create different realizations of thermal properties by direct sequential simulation and we find the best one fitting real production data (fluid temperature along time). The software used to develop heat production simulation is FEFLOW 5.4 (Finite Element subsurface FLOW system). A geostatistical reservoir model has been set up based on literature thermal properties data and spatial variability hypotheses, and a real TRT has been tested. Then we analyzed and used as well two other codes (SA-Geotherm and FV-Geotherm) which are two implementation of the same numerical model of FEFLOW (Al-Khoury model).

Analysis and Implementation of Multiphase-Multilevel Inverter for Open-Winding Loads

Research work carried out in focusing a novel multiphase-multilevel ac motor drive system much suitable for low-voltage high-current power applications. In specific, six-phase asymmetrical induction motor with open-end stator winding configuration, fed from four standard two-level three-phase voltage source inverters (VSIs). Proposed synchronous reference frame control algorithm shares the total dc source power among the 4 VSIs in each switching cycle with three degree of freedom. Precisely, first degree of freedom concerns with the current sharing between two three-phase stator windings. Based on modified multilevel space vector pulse width modulation shares the voltage between each single VSIs of two three-phase stator windings with second and third degree of freedom, having proper multilevel output waveforms. Complete model of whole ac motor drive based on three-phase space vector decomposition approach was developed in PLECS - numerical simulation software working in MATLAB environment. Proposed synchronous reference control algorithm was framed in MATLAB with modified multilevel space vector pulse width modulator. The effectiveness of the entire ac motor drives system was tested. Simulation results are given in detail to show symmetrical and asymmetrical, power sharing conditions. Furthermore, the three degree of freedom are exploited to investigate fault tolerant capabilities in post-fault conditions. Complete set of simulation results are provided when one, two and three VSIs are faulty. Hardware prototype model of quad-inverter was implemented with two passive three-phase open-winding loads using two TMS320F2812 DSP controllers. Developed McBSP (multi-channel buffered serial port) communication algorithm able to control the four VSIs for PWM communication and synchronization. Open-loop control scheme based on inverse three-phase decomposition approach was developed to control entire quad-inverter configuration and tested with balanced and unbalanced operating conditions with simplified PWM techniques. Both simulation and experimental results are always in good agreement with theoretical developments.

Displacement Analysis of Under-Constrained Cable-Driven Parallel Robots

This dissertation studies the geometric static problem of under-constrained cable-driven parallel robots (CDPRs) supported by n cables, with n ≤ 6. The task consists of determining the overall robot configuration when a set of n variables is assigned. When variables relating to the platform posture are assigned, an inverse geometric static problem (IGP) must be solved; whereas, when cable lengths are given, a direct geometric static problem (DGP) must be considered. Both problems are challenging, as the robot continues to preserve some degrees of freedom even after n variables are assigned, with the final configuration determined by the applied forces. Hence, kinematics and statics are coupled and must be resolved simultaneously. In this dissertation, a general methodology is presented for modelling the aforementioned scenario with a set of algebraic equations. An elimination procedure is provided, aimed at solving the governing equations analytically and obtaining a least-degree univariate polynomial in the corresponding ideal for any value of n. Although an analytical procedure based on elimination is important from a mathematical point of view, providing an upper bound on the number of solutions in the complex field, it is not practical to compute these solutions as it would be very time-consuming. Thus, for the efficient computation of the solution set, a numerical procedure based on homotopy continuation is implemented. A continuation algorithm is also applied to find a set of robot parameters with the maximum number of real assembly modes for a given DGP. Finally, the end-effector pose depends on the applied load and may change due to external disturbances. An investigation into equilibrium stability is therefore performed.

Potential Analysis for Hypoelliptic Second Order PDEs with Nonnegative Characteristic Form

In this Thesis we consider a class of second order partial differential operators with non-negative characteristic form and with smooth coefficients. Main assumptions on the relevant operators are hypoellipticity and existence of a well-behaved global fundamental solution. We first make a deep analysis of the L-Green function for arbitrary open sets and of its applications to the Representation Theorems of Riesz-type for L-subharmonic and L-superharmonic functions. Then, we prove an Inverse Mean value Theorem characterizing the superlevel sets of the fundamental solution by means of L-harmonic functions. Furthermore, we establish a Lebesgue-type result showing the role of the mean-integal operator in solving the homogeneus Dirichlet problem related to L in the Perron-Wiener sense. Finally, we compare Perron-Wiener and weak variational solutions of the homogeneous Dirichlet problem, under specific hypothesis on the boundary datum.