Analysis of eruptive and seismic sequences to improve the short-and long-term eruption forecasting

Forecasting the time, location, nature, and scale of volcanic eruptions is one of the most urgent aspects of modern applied volcanology. The reliability of probabilistic forecasting procedures is strongly related to the reliability of the input information provided, implying objective criteria for interpreting the historical and monitoring data. For this reason both, detailed analysis of past data and more basic research into the processes of volcanism, are fundamental tasks of a continuous information-gain process; in this way the precursor events of eruptions can be better interpreted in terms of their physical meanings with correlated uncertainties. This should lead to better predictions of the nature of eruptive events. In this work we have studied different problems associated with the long- and short-term eruption forecasting assessment. First, we discuss different approaches for the analysis of the eruptive history of a volcano, most of them generally applied for long-term eruption forecasting purposes; furthermore, we present a model based on the characteristics of a Brownian passage-time process to describe recurrent eruptive activity, and apply it for long-term, time-dependent, eruption forecasting (Chapter 1). Conversely, in an effort to define further monitoring parameters as input data for short-term eruption forecasting in probabilistic models (as for example, the Bayesian Event Tree for eruption forecasting -BET_EF-), we analyze some characteristics of typical seismic activity recorded in active volcanoes; in particular, we use some methodologies that may be applied to analyze long-period (LP) events (Chapter 2) and volcano-tectonic (VT) seismic swarms (Chapter 3); our analysis in general are oriented toward the tracking of phenomena that can provide information about magmatic processes. Finally, we discuss some possible ways to integrate the results presented in Chapters 1 (for long-term EF), 2 and 3 (for short-term EF) in the BET_EF model (Chapter 4).

Evaluation of the effects of insertion of viscous dampers in Moment Resisting Frames

This research work faces the problem of insertion of viscous dampers into Moment Resisiting Frames (MRF) for maximum efficiency in mitigation of the seismic effects. The work would lead to a precise design indication. The fundamental result of the thesis consists in showing that, even for moment-resisting structures, you can design a system of added viscous dampers able to achieve target levels of performances. Ie given the reduction factor in the seismic response, discover the characteristics of the viscous dampers which allow to achieve it.

Bioinformatic methods in applied genomic research

Here I will focus on three main topics that best address and include the projects I have been working in during my three year PhD period that I have spent in different research laboratories addressing both computationally and practically important problems all related to modern molecular genomics. The first topic is the use of livestock species (pigs) as a model of obesity, a complex human dysfunction. My efforts here concern the detection and annotation of Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms. I developed a pipeline for mining human and porcine sequences. Starting from a set of human genes related with obesity the platform returns a list of annotated porcine SNPs extracted from a new set of potential obesity-genes. 565 of these SNPs were analyzed on an Illumina chip to test the involvement in obesity on a population composed by more than 500 pigs. Results will be discussed. All the computational analysis and experiments were done in collaboration with the Biocomputing group and Dr.Luca Fontanesi, respectively, under the direction of prof. Rita Casadio at the Bologna University, Italy. The second topic concerns developing a methodology, based on Factor Analysis, to simultaneously mine information from different levels of biological organization. With specific test cases we develop models of the complexity of the mRNA-miRNA molecular interaction in brain tumors measured indirectly by microarray and quantitative PCR. This work was done under the supervision of Prof. Christine Nardini, at the “CAS-MPG Partner Institute for Computational Biology” of Shangai, China (co-founded by the Max Planck Society and the Chinese Academy of Sciences jointly) The third topic concerns the development of a new method to overcome the variety of PCR technologies routinely adopted to characterize unknown flanking DNA regions of a viral integration locus of the human genome after clinical gene therapy. This new method is entirely based on next generation sequencing and it reduces the time required to detect insertion sites, decreasing the complexity of the procedure. This work was done in collaboration with the group of Dr. Manfred Schmidt at the Nationales Centrum für Tumorerkrankungen (Heidelberg, Germany) supervised by Dr. Annette Deichmann and Dr. Ali Nowrouzi. Furthermore I add as an Appendix the description of a R package for gene network reconstruction that I helped to develop for scientific usage (http://www.bioconductor.org/help/bioc-views/release/bioc/html/BUS.html).

Algorithms for UAS insertion in civil air space

One of the most interesting challenge of the next years will be the Air Space Systems automation. This process will involve different aspects as the Air Traffic Management, the Aircrafts and Airport Operations and the Guidance and Navigation Systems. The use of UAS (Uninhabited Aerial System) for civil mission will be one of the most important steps in this automation process. In civil air space, Air Traffic Controllers (ATC) manage the air traffic ensuring that a minimum separation between the controlled aircrafts is always provided. For this purpose ATCs use several operative avoidance techniques like holding patterns or rerouting. The use of UAS in these context will require the definition of strategies for a common management of piloted and piloted air traffic that allow the UAS to self separate. As a first employment in civil air space we consider a UAS surveillance mission that consists in departing from a ground base, taking pictures over a set of mission targets and coming back to the same ground base. During all mission a set of piloted aircrafts fly in the same airspace and thus the UAS has to self separate using the ATC avoidance as anticipated. We consider two objective, the first consists in the minimization of the air traffic impact over the mission, the second consists in the minimization of the impact of the mission over the air traffic. A particular version of the well known Travelling Salesman Problem (TSP) called Time-Dependant-TSP has been studied to deal with traffic problems in big urban areas. Its basic idea consists in a cost of the route between two clients depending on the period of the day in which it is crossed. Our thesis supports that such idea can be applied to the air traffic too using a convenient time horizon compatible with aircrafts operations. The cost of a UAS sub-route will depend on the air traffic that it will meet starting such route in a specific moment and consequently on the avoidance maneuver that it will use to avoid that conflict. The conflict avoidance is a topic that has been hardly developed in past years using different approaches. In this thesis we purpose a new approach based on the use of ATC operative techniques that makes it possible both to model the UAS problem using a TDTSP framework both to use an Air Traffic Management perspective. Starting from this kind of mission, the problem of the UAS insertion in civil air space is formalized as the UAS Routing Problem (URP). For this reason we introduce a new structure called Conflict Graph that makes it possible to model the avoidance maneuvers and to define the arc cost function of the departing time. Two Integer Linear Programming formulations of the problem are proposed. The first is based on a TDTSP formulation that, unfortunately, is weaker then the TSP formulation. Thus a new formulation based on a TSP variation that uses specific penalty to model the holdings is proposed. Different algorithms are presented: exact algorithms, simple heuristics used as Upper Bounds on the number of time steps used, and metaheuristic algorithms as Genetic Algorithm and Simulated Annealing. Finally an air traffic scenario has been simulated using real air traffic data in order to test our algorithms. Graphic Tools have been used to represent the Milano Linate air space and its air traffic during different days. Such data have been provided by ENAV S.p.A (Italian Agency for Air Navigation Services).

Synthesis of Modified Amino Acids and Insertion in Peptides and Mimetics. Structural Aspects and Impact on Biological Activity.

I studied the effects exerted by the modifications on structures and biological activities of the compounds so obtained. I prepared peptide analogues containing unusual amino acids such as halogenated, alkylated (S)- or (R)-tryptophans, useful for the synthesis of mimetics of the endogenous opioid peptide endomorphin-1, or 2-oxo-1,3-oxazolidine-4-carboxylic acids, utilized as pseudo-prolines having a clear all-trans configuration of the preceding peptide bond. The latter gave access to a series of constrained peptidomimetics with potential interest in medicinal chemistry and in the field of the foldamers. In particular, I have dedicated much efforts to the preparation of cyclopentapeptides containing D-configured, alfa-, or beta-aminoacids, and also of cyclotetrapeptides including the retro-inverso modification. The conformational analyses confirmed that these cyclic compounds can be utilized as rigid scaffolds mimicking gamma- or beta-turns, allowing to generate new molecular and 3D diversity. Much work has been dedicated to the structural analysis in solution and in the receptor-bound state, fundamental for giving a rationale to the experimentally determined bioactivity, as well as for predicting the activity of virtual compounds (in silico pre-screen). The conformational analyses in solution has been done mostly by NMR (2D gCosy, Roesy, VT, molecular dynamics, etc.). A special section is dedicated to the prediction of plausible poses of the ligands when bound to the receptors by Molecular Docking. This computational method proved to be a powerful tool for the investigation of ligand-receptor interactions, and for the design of selective agonists and antagonists. Another practical use of cyclic peptidomimetics was the synthesis and biological evaluation of cyclic analogues of endomorphin-1 lacking in a protonable amino group. The studies revealed that a inverse type II beta-turn on D-Trp-Phe constituted the bioactive conformation.

Antipodal random sequences with prescribed second-order statistics: application to Compressive Sensing and UWB system based on DS-CDMA

It is usual to hear a strange short sentence: «Random is better than...». Why is randomness a good solution to a certain engineering problem? There are many possible answers, and all of them are related to the considered topic. In this thesis I will discuss about two crucial topics that take advantage by randomizing some waveforms involved in signals manipulations. In particular, advantages are guaranteed by shaping the second order statistic of antipodal sequences involved in an intermediate signal processing stages. The first topic is in the area of analog-to-digital conversion, and it is named Compressive Sensing (CS). CS is a novel paradigm in signal processing that tries to merge signal acquisition and compression at the same time. Consequently it allows to direct acquire a signal in a compressed form. In this thesis, after an ample description of the CS methodology and its related architectures, I will present a new approach that tries to achieve high compression by design the second order statistics of a set of additional waveforms involved in the signal acquisition/compression stage. The second topic addressed in this thesis is in the area of communication system, in particular I focused the attention on ultra-wideband (UWB) systems. An option to produce and decode UWB signals is direct-sequence spreading with multiple access based on code division (DS-CDMA). Focusing on this methodology, I will address the coexistence of a DS-CDMA system with a narrowband interferer. To do so, I minimize the joint effect of both multiple access (MAI) and narrowband (NBI) interference on a simple matched filter receiver. I will show that, when spreading sequence statistical properties are suitably designed, performance improvements are possible with respect to a system exploiting chaos-based sequences minimizing MAI only.

Low Correlated Sequences & Architectures and Algorithms for Analog-to-Information Converters: Theory, Design, Implementation and Applications.

Most electronic systems can be described in a very simplified way as an assemblage of analog and digital components put all together in order to perform a certain function. Nowadays, there is an increasing tendency to reduce the analog components, and to replace them by operations performed in the digital domain. This tendency has led to the emergence of new electronic systems that are more flexible, cheaper and robust. However, no matter the amount of digital process implemented, there will be always an analog part to be sorted out and thus, the step of converting digital signals into analog signals and vice versa cannot be avoided. This conversion can be more or less complex depending on the characteristics of the signals. Thus, even if it is desirable to replace functions carried out by analog components by digital processes, it is equally important to do so in a way that simplifies the conversion from digital to analog signals and vice versa. In the present thesis, we have study strategies based on increasing the amount of processing in the digital domain in such a way that the implementation of analog hardware stages can be simplified. To this aim, we have proposed the use of very low quantized signals, i.e. 1-bit, for the acquisition and for the generation of particular classes of signals.

Seismic sequences analysis for estimation of earthquake source parameters: corner frequency, stress drop, and seismic moment observations

The present study has been carried out with the following objectives: i) To investigate the attributes of source parameters of local and regional earthquakes; ii) To estimate, as accurately as possible, M0, fc, Δσ and their standard errors to infer their relationship with source size; iii) To quantify high-frequency earthquake ground motion and to study the source scaling. This work is based on observational data of micro, small and moderate -earthquakes for three selected seismic sequences, namely Parkfield (CA, USA), Maule (Chile) and Ferrara (Italy). For the Parkfield seismic sequence (CA), a data set of 757 (42 clusters) repeating micro-earthquakes (0 ≤ MW ≤ 2), collected using borehole High Resolution Seismic Network (HRSN), have been analyzed and interpreted. We used the coda methodology to compute spectral ratios to obtain accurate values of fc , Δσ, and M0 for three target clusters (San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Hawaii) of our data. We also performed a general regression on peak ground velocities to obtain reliable seismic spectra of all earthquakes. For the Maule seismic sequence, a data set of 172 aftershocks of the 2010 MW 8.8 earthquake (3.7 ≤ MW ≤ 6.2), recorded by more than 100 temporary broadband stations, have been analyzed and interpreted to quantify high-frequency earthquake ground motion in this subduction zone. We completely calibrated the excitation and attenuation of the ground motion in Central Chile. For the Ferrara sequence, we calculated moment tensor solutions for 20 events from MW 5.63 (the largest main event occurred on May 20 2012), down to MW 3.2 by a 1-D velocity model for the crust beneath the Pianura Padana, using all the geophysical and geological information available for the area. The PADANIA model allowed a numerical study on the characteristics of the ground motion in the thick sediments of the flood plain.