15 resultados para Game Theoretical Model
em AMS Tesi di Dottorato - Alm@DL - Università di Bologna
Resumo:
While imperfect information games are an excellent model of real-world problems and tasks, they are often difficult for computer programs to play at a high level of proficiency, especially if they involve major uncertainty and a very large state space. Kriegspiel, a variant of chess making it similar to a wargame, is a perfect example: while the game was studied for decades from a game-theoretical viewpoint, it was only very recently that the first practical algorithms for playing it began to appear. This thesis presents, documents and tests a multi-sided effort towards making a strong Kriegspiel player, using heuristic searching, retrograde analysis and Monte Carlo tree search algorithms to achieve increasingly higher levels of play. The resulting program is currently the strongest computer player in the world and plays at an above-average human level.
Resumo:
La ricerca oggetto di questa tesi, come si evince dal titolo stesso, è volta alla riduzione dei consumi per vetture a forte carattere sportivo ed elevate prestazioni specifiche. In particolare, tutte le attività descritte fanno riferimento ad un ben definito modello di vettura, ovvero la Maserati Quattroporte. Lo scenario all’interno del quale questo lavoro si inquadra, è quello di una forte spinta alla riduzione dei cosiddetti gas serra, ossia dell’anidride carbonica, in linea con quelle che sono le disposizioni dettate dal protocollo di Kyoto. La necessità di ridurre l’immissione in atmosfera di CO2 sta condizionando tutti i settori della società: dal riscaldamento degli edifici privati a quello degli stabilimenti industriali, dalla generazione di energia ai processi produttivi in senso lato. Nell’ambito di questo panorama, chiaramente, sono chiamati ad uno sforzo considerevole i costruttori di automobili, alle quali è imputata una percentuale considerevole dell’anidride carbonica prodotta ogni giorno e riversata nell’atmosfera. Al delicato problema inquinamento ne va aggiunto uno forse ancor più contingente e diretto, legato a ragioni di carattere economico. I combustibili fossili, come tutti sanno, sono una fonte di energia non rinnovabile, la cui disponibilità è legata a giacimenti situati in opportune zone del pianeta e non inesauribili. Per di più, la situazione socio politica che il medio oriente sta affrontando, unita alla crescente domanda da parte di quei paesi in cui il processo di industrializzazione è partito da poco a ritmi vertiginosi, hanno letteralmente fatto lievitare il prezzo del petrolio. A causa di ciò, avere una vettura efficiente in senso lato e, quindi, a ridotti consumi, è a tutti gli effetti un contenuto di prodotto apprezzato dal punto di vista del marketing, anche per i segmenti vettura più alti. Nell’ambito di questa ricerca il problema dei consumi è stato affrontato come una conseguenza del comportamento globale della vettura in termini di efficienza, valutando il miglior compromesso fra le diverse aree funzionali costituenti il veicolo. Una parte consistente del lavoro è stata dedicata alla messa a punto di un modello di calcolo, attraverso il quale eseguire una serie di analisi di sensibilità sull’influenza dei diversi parametri vettura sul consumo complessivo di carburante. Sulla base di tali indicazioni, è stata proposta una modifica dei rapporti del cambio elettro-attuato con lo scopo di ottimizzare il compromesso tra consumi e prestazioni, senza inficiare considerevolmente queste ultime. La soluzione proposta è stata effettivamente realizzata e provata su vettura, dando la possibilità di verificare i risultati ed operare un’approfondita attività di correlazione del modello di calcolo per i consumi. Il beneficio ottenuto in termini di autonomia è stato decisamente significativo con riferimento sia ai cicli di omologazione europei, che a quelli statunitensi. Sono state inoltre analizzate le ripercussioni dal punto di vista delle prestazioni ed anche in questo caso i numerosi dati rilevati hanno permesso di migliorare il livello di correlazione del modello di simulazione per le prestazioni. La vettura con la nuova rapportatura proposta è stata poi confrontata con un prototipo di Maserati Quattroporte avente cambio automatico e convertitore di coppia. Questa ulteriore attività ha permesso di valutare il differente comportamento tra le due soluzioni, sia in termini di consumo istantaneo, che di consumo complessivo rilevato durante le principali missioni su banco a rulli previste dalle normative. L’ultima sezione del lavoro è stata dedicata alla valutazione dell’efficienza energetica del sistema vettura, intesa come resistenza all’avanzamento incontrata durante il moto ad una determinata velocità. Sono state indagate sperimentalmente le curve di “coast down” della Quattroporte e di alcune concorrenti e sono stati proposti degli interventi volti alla riduzione del coefficiente di penetrazione aerodinamica, pur con il vincolo di non alterare lo stile vettura.
Resumo:
The Peer-to-Peer network paradigm is drawing the attention of both final users and researchers for its features. P2P networks shift from the classic client-server approach to a high level of decentralization where there is no central control and all the nodes should be able not only to require services, but to provide them to other peers as well. While on one hand such high level of decentralization might lead to interesting properties like scalability and fault tolerance, on the other hand it implies many new problems to deal with. A key feature of many P2P systems is openness, meaning that everybody is potentially able to join a network with no need for subscription or payment systems. The combination of openness and lack of central control makes it feasible for a user to free-ride, that is to increase its own benefit by using services without allocating resources to satisfy other peers’ requests. One of the main goals when designing a P2P system is therefore to achieve cooperation between users. Given the nature of P2P systems based on simple local interactions of many peers having partial knowledge of the whole system, an interesting way to achieve desired properties on a system scale might consist in obtaining them as emergent properties of the many interactions occurring at local node level. Two methods are typically used to face the problem of cooperation in P2P networks: 1) engineering emergent properties when designing the protocol; 2) study the system as a game and apply Game Theory techniques, especially to find Nash Equilibria in the game and to reach them making the system stable against possible deviant behaviors. In this work we present an evolutionary framework to enforce cooperative behaviour in P2P networks that is alternative to both the methods mentioned above. Our approach is based on an evolutionary algorithm inspired by computational sociology and evolutionary game theory, consisting in having each peer periodically trying to copy another peer which is performing better. The proposed algorithms, called SLAC and SLACER, draw inspiration from tag systems originated in computational sociology, the main idea behind the algorithm consists in having low performance nodes copying high performance ones. The algorithm is run locally by every node and leads to an evolution of the network both from the topology and from the nodes’ strategy point of view. Initial tests with a simple Prisoners’ Dilemma application show how SLAC is able to bring the network to a state of high cooperation independently from the initial network conditions. Interesting results are obtained when studying the effect of cheating nodes on SLAC algorithm. In fact in some cases selfish nodes rationally exploiting the system for their own benefit can actually improve system performance from the cooperation formation point of view. The final step is to apply our results to more realistic scenarios. We put our efforts in studying and improving the BitTorrent protocol. BitTorrent was chosen not only for its popularity but because it has many points in common with SLAC and SLACER algorithms, ranging from the game theoretical inspiration (tit-for-tat-like mechanism) to the swarms topology. We discovered fairness, meant as ratio between uploaded and downloaded data, to be a weakness of the original BitTorrent protocol and we drew inspiration from the knowledge of cooperation formation and maintenance mechanism derived from the development and analysis of SLAC and SLACER, to improve fairness and tackle freeriding and cheating in BitTorrent. We produced an extension of BitTorrent called BitFair that has been evaluated through simulation and has shown the abilities of enforcing fairness and tackling free-riding and cheating nodes.
Resumo:
The objective of this dissertation is to develop and test a predictive model for the passive kinematics of human joints based on the energy minimization principle. To pursue this goal, the tibio-talar joint is chosen as a reference joint, for the reduced number of bones involved and its simplicity, if compared with other sinovial joints such as the knee or the wrist. Starting from the knowledge of the articular surface shapes, the spatial trajectory of passive motion is obtained as the envelop of joint configurations that maximize the surfaces congruence. An increase in joint congruence corresponds to an improved capability of distributing an applied load, allowing the joint to attain a better strength with less material. Thus, joint congruence maximization is a simple geometric way to capture the idea of joint energy minimization. The results obtained are validated against in vitro measured trajectories. Preliminary comparison provide strong support for the predictions of the theoretical model.
Resumo:
The aim of this thesis is to study how explosive behavior and geophysical signals in a volcanic conduit are related to the development of overpressure in slug-driven eruptions. A first suite of laboratory experiments of gas slugs ascending in analogue conduits was performed. Slugs ascended into a range of analogue liquids and conduit diameters to allow proper scaling to the natural volcanoes. The geometrical variation of the slug in response to the explored variables was parameterised. Volume of gas slug and rheology of the liquid phase revealed the key parameters in controlling slug overpressure at bursting. Founded on these results, a theoretical model to calculate burst overpressure for slug-driven eruptions was developed. The dimensionless approach adopted allowed to apply the model to predict bursting pressure of slugs at Stromboli. Comparison of predicted values with measured data from Stromboli volcano showed that the model can explain the entire spectrum of observed eruptive styles at Stromboli – from low-energy puffing, through normal Strombolian eruptions, up to paroxysmal explosions – as manifestations of a single underlying physical process. Finally, another suite of laboratory experiments was performed to observe oscillatory pressure and forces variations generated during the expansion and bursting of gas slugs ascending in a conduit. Two end-member boundary conditions were imposed at the base of the pipe, simulating slug ascent in closed base (zero magma flux) and open base (constant flux) conduit. At the top of the pipe, a range of boundary conditions that are relevant at a volcanic vent were imposed, going from open to plugged vent. The results obtained illustrate that a change in boundary conditions in the conduit concur to affect the dynamic of slug expansion and burst: an upward flux at the base of the conduit attenuates the magnitude of the pressure transients, while a rheological stiffening in the top-most region of conduit changes dramatically the magnitude of the observed pressure transients, favoring a sudden, and more energetic pressure release into the overlying atmosphere. Finally, a discussion on the implication of changing boundary on the oscillatory processes generated at the volcanic scale is also given.
Resumo:
La tesi mira a ridefinire lo statuto del personaggio nell’ambito del self-conscious novel postmoderno, alla luce delle più recenti tendenze narratologiche, con particolare riferimento all’unnatural narratology. Per poter presentare un modello scientificamente valido si è fatto ricorso alla comparazione della produzione letteraria di due macro-aree: quella britannica e quella slava (Russia - Unione Sovietica - e Polonia). Come figura di mediazione tra queste due culture si pone senza dubbio Vladimir V. Nabokov, cardine e personalità di spicco della ricerca. Tra le analisi testuali proposte sono stati presi in considerazione i seguenti autori: Julian Barnes, Vladimir Nabokov, Daniil Charms, Konstantin Vaginov, Andrej Bitov, Saša Sokolov, Bruno Schulz e Tadeusz Kantor.
Resumo:
In the thesis we present the implementation of the quadratic maximum likelihood (QML) method, ideal to estimate the angular power spectrum of the cross-correlation between cosmic microwave background (CMB) and large scale structure (LSS) maps as well as their individual auto-spectra. Such a tool is an optimal method (unbiased and with minimum variance) in pixel space and goes beyond all the previous harmonic analysis present in the literature. We describe the implementation of the QML method in the {\it BolISW} code and demonstrate its accuracy on simulated maps throughout a Monte Carlo. We apply this optimal estimator to WMAP 7-year and NRAO VLA Sky Survey (NVSS) data and explore the robustness of the angular power spectrum estimates obtained by the QML method. Taking into account the shot noise and one of the systematics (declination correction) in NVSS, we can safely use most of the information contained in this survey. On the contrary we neglect the noise in temperature since WMAP is already cosmic variance dominated on the large scales. Because of a discrepancy in the galaxy auto spectrum between the estimates and the theoretical model, we use two different galaxy distributions: the first one with a constant bias $b$ and the second one with a redshift dependent bias $b(z)$. Finally, we make use of the angular power spectrum estimates obtained by the QML method to derive constraints on the dark energy critical density in a flat $\Lambda$CDM model by different likelihood prescriptions. When using just the cross-correlation between WMAP7 and NVSS maps with 1.8° resolution, we show that $\Omega_\Lambda$ is about the 70\% of the total energy density, disfavouring an Einstein-de Sitter Universe at more than 2 $\sigma$ CL (confidence level).
Resumo:
This work contributes to the field of spatial economics by embracing three distinct modelling approaches, belonging to different strands of the theoretical literature. In the first chapter I present a theoretical model in which the changes in urban system’s degree of functional specialisation are linked to (i) firms’ organisational choices and firms’ location decisions. The interplay between firms’ internal communication/managing costs (between headquarters and production plants) and the cost of communicating with distant business services providers leads the transition process from an “integrated” urban system where each city hosts every different functions to a “functionally specialised” urban system where each city is either a primary business center (hosting advanced business services providers, a secondary business center or a pure manufacturing city and all this city-types coexist in equilibrium.The second chapter investigates the impact of free trade on welfare in a two-country world modelled as an international Hotelling duopoly with quadratic transport costs and asymmetric countries, where a negative environmental externality is associated with the consumption of the good produced in the smaller country. Countries’ relative sizes as well as the intensity of negative environmental externality affect potential welfare gains of trade liberalisation. The third chapter focuses on the paradox, by which, contrary to theoretical predictions, empirical evidence shows that a decrease in international transport costs causes an increase in foreign direct investments (FDIs). Here we propose an explanation to this apparent puzzle by exploiting an approach which delivers a continuum of Bertrand- Nash equilibria ranging above marginal cost pricing. In our setting, two Bertrand firms, supplying a homogeneous good with a convex cost function, enter the market of a foreign country. We show that allowing for a softer price competition may indeed more than offset the standard effect generated by a decrease in trade costs, thereby restoring FDI incentives.
Resumo:
The thesis contemplates 4 papers and its main goal is to provide evidence on the prominent impact that behavioral analysis can play into the personnel economics domain.The research tool prevalently used in the thesis is the experimental analysis.The first paper provide laboratory evidence on how the standard screening model–based on the assumption that the pecuniary dimension represents the main workers’choice variable–fails when intrinsic motivation is introduced into the analysis.The second paper explores workers’ behavioral reactions when dealing with supervisors that may incur in errors in the assessment of their job performance.In particular,deserving agents that have exerted high effort may not be rewarded(Type-I errors)and undeserving agents that have exerted low effort may be rewarded(Type-II errors).Although a standard neoclassical model predicts both errors to be equally detrimental for effort provision,this prediction fails when tested through a laboratory experiment.Findings from this study suggest how failing to reward deserving agents is significantly more detrimental than rewarding undeserving agents.The third paper investigates the performance of two antithetic non-monetary incentive schemes on schooling achievement.The study is conducted through a field experiment.Students randomized to the main treatments have been incentivized to cooperate or to compete in order to earn additional exam points.Consistently with the theoretical model proposed in the paper,the level of effort in the competitive scheme proved to be higher than in the cooperative setting.Interestingly however,this result is characterized by a strong gender effect.The fourth paper exploits a natural experiment setting generated by the credit crunch occurred in the UK in the2007.The economic turmoil has negatively influenced the private sector,while public sector employees have not been directly hit by the crisis.This shock–through the rise of the unemployment rate and the increasing labor market uncertainty–has generated an exogenous variation in the opportunity cost of maternity leave in private sector labor force.This paper identifies the different responses.
Resumo:
The candidate tackled an important issue in contemporary management: the role of CSR and Sustainability. The research proposal focused on a longitudinal and inductive research, directed to specify the evolution of CSR and contribute to the new institutional theory, in particular institutional work framework, and to the relation between institutions and discourse analysis. The documental analysis covers all the evolution of CSR, focusing also on a number of important networks and associations. Some of the methodologies employed in the thesis have been employed as a consequence of data analysis, in a truly inductive research process. The thesis is composed by two section. The first section mainly describes the research process and the analyses results. The candidates employed several research methods: a longitudinal content analysis of documents, a vocabulary research with statistical metrics as cluster analysis and factor analysis, a rhetorical analysis of justifications. The second section puts in relation the analysis results with theoretical frameworks and contributions. The candidate confronted with several frameworks: Actor-Network-Theory, Institutional work and Boundary Work, Institutional Logic. Chapters are focused on different issues: a historical reconstruction of CSR; a reflection about symbolic adoption of recurrent labels; two case studies of Italian networks, in order to confront institutional and boundary works; a theoretical model of institutional change based on contradiction and institutional complexity; the application of the model to CSR and Sustainability, proposing Sustainability as a possible institutional logic.
Resumo:
Characteristics of modern food demand force retailers to acquire more information about product process along the food supply chain to ensure that product are in accordance with consumer preference. Therefore, the product process involves more information flows between buyer and supplier which requires collaborative efforts. These changes translate into several studies on the inter-organizational relationship in agri-food systems. Studies on inter-organizational relationships have been conducted in various academic disciplines, including sociology, psychology, law, economics, marketing, management, and combination of these. Inter-organizational relationships is an interaction between organizations which involved firms horizontally, as well as, vertically. In this study we deal with vertical, buyer-seller relationship which are sometimes referred to chain relationships. We define vertical business relationship in the agriculture-food based sector as “agri-food chain relationships”. The focus is on sustainable inter-organizational relationships in a way that they can be scientifically investigated. We study characteristics which ensure that a relationship is long-lasting and rewarding for all involved parties in the sardinian dairy. We test the theoretical model using structural equation modeling. The results suggest that the most important determinant for the relationships is technology and the price isn’t significant for the relationship governance.
Resumo:
L'obiettivo della tesi è stato quello di indagare il complesso problema della vulnerabilità sismica dei ponte in muratura ad arco utilizzando modelli semplificati. Dopo una descrizione dei materiali da costruzione impiegati nella realizzazione e dei principali elementi dei un ponti in muratura, si è indirizzato lo studio di un ponte ad arco situato nel comune di San Marcello Pistoiese. Viene mostrato un modello numerico che permette di descrivere il comportamento strutturale del ponte sotto azione sismica e di valutare la capacità di carico del ponte sottoposto ad una azione trasversale. In un secondo momento viene descritta la realizzazione di un modello in scala del ponte, che è stato sottoposto a prove distruttive effettuate per valutare la capacità di carico del ponte rispetto ad un ipotetica azione orizzontale. Si è cercato poi di inquadrare il problema in un modello teorico che faccia riferimento all'analisi limite. Esso descrive un cinematismo di collasso a telaio che prende spunto dal quadro fessurativo del modello in muratura. Infine sono stati presentati modelli FEM numerici in ordine di complessità crescente, cercando di inquadrare il comportamento meccanico del prototipo del ponte. Tre tipi di modelli sono rappresentati: un telaio incernierato alle estremità costituito da elementi beam con resistenza alla flessione . Il secondo tipo è costituito da una reticolare equivalente che mima lo schema del ponte ed è formato solo da bielle. Infine, il terzo tipo cerca di descrivere l'intero modello con elementi tridimensionali.
Resumo:
The main objective of this research is to improve the comprehension of the processes controlling the formation of caves and karst-like morphologies in quartz-rich lithologies (more than 90% quartz), like quartz-sandstones and metamorphic quartzites. In the scientific community the processes actually most retained to be responsible of these formations are explained in the “Arenisation Theory”. This implies a slow but pervasive dissolution of the quartz grain/mineral boundaries increasing the general porosity until the rock becomes incohesive and can be easily eroded by running waters. The loose sands produced by the weathering processes are then evacuated to the surface through processes of piping due to the infiltration of waters from the fracture network or the bedding planes. To deal with these problems we adopted a multidisciplinary approach through the exploration and the study of several cave systems in different tepuis. The first step was to build a theoretical model of the arenisation process, considering the most recent knowledge about the dissolution kinetics of quartz, the intergranular/grain boundaries diffusion processes, the primary diffusion porosity, in the simplified conditions of an open fracture crossed by a continuous flow of undersatured water. The results of the model were then compared with the world’s widest dataset (more than 150 analyses) of water geochemistry collected till now on the tepui, in superficial and cave settings. All these studies allowed verifying the importance and the effectiveness of the arenisation process that is confirmed to be the main process responsible of the primary formation of these caves and of the karst-like superficial morphologies. The numerical modelling and the field observations allowed evaluating a possible age of the cave systems around 20-30 million of years.
Resumo:
A flexure hinge is a flexible connector that can provide a limited rotational motion between two rigid parts by means of material deformation. These connectors can be used to substitute traditional kinematic pairs (like bearing couplings) in rigid-body mechanisms. When compared to their rigid-body counterpart, flexure hinges are characterized by reduced weight, absence of backlash and friction, part-count reduction, but restricted range of motion. There are several types of flexure hinges in the literature that have been studied and characterized for different applications. In our study, we have introduced new types of flexures with curved structures i.e. circularly curved-beam flexures and spherical flexures. These flexures have been utilized for both planar applications (e.g. articulated robotic fingers) and spatial applications (e.g. spherical compliant mechanisms). We have derived closed-form compliance equations for both circularly curved-beam flexures and spherical flexures. Each element of the spatial compliance matrix is analytically computed as a function of hinge dimensions and employed material. The theoretical model is then validated by comparing analytical data with the results obtained through Finite Element Analysis. A case study is also presented for each class of flexures, concerning the potential applications in the optimal design of planar and spatial compliant mechanisms. Each case study is followed by comparing the performance of these novel flexures with the performance of commonly used geometries in terms of principle compliance factors, parasitic motions and maximum stress demands. Furthermore, we have extended our study to the design and analysis of serial and parallel compliant mechanisms, where the proposed flexures have been employed to achieve spatial motions e.g. compliant spherical joints.
Resumo:
In the first chapter we develop a theoretical model investigating food consumption and body weight with a novel assumption regarding human caloric expenditure (i.e. metabolism), in order to investigate why individuals can be rationally trapped in an excessive weight equilibrium and why they struggle to lose weight even when offered incentives for weight-loss. This assumption allows the theoretical model to have multiple equilibria and to provide an explanation for why losing weight is so difficult even in the presence of incentives, without relying on rational addiction, time-inconsistency preferences or bounded rationality. In addition to this result we are able to characterize under which circumstances a temporary incentive can create a persistent weight loss. In the second chapter we investigate the possible contributions that social norms and peer effects had on the spread of obesity. In recent literature peer effects and social norms have been characterized as important pathways for the biological and behavioral spread of body weight, along with decreased food prices and physical activity. We add to this literature by proposing a novel concept of social norm related to what we define as social distortion in weight perception. The theoretical model shows that, in equilibrium, the effect of an increase in peers' weight on i's weight is unrelated to health concerns while it is mainly associated with social concerns. Using regional data from England we prove that such social component is significant in influencing individual weight. In the last chapter we investigate the relationship between body weight and employment probability. Using a semi-parametric regression we show that men and women employment probability do not follow a linear relationship with body mass index (BMI) but rather an inverted U-shaped one, peaking at a BMI way over the clinical threshold for overweight.