El Niño southern oscillation and its effect on fog oases along the Peruvian and Chilean coastal deserts

Fog oases, locally named Lomas, are distributed in a fragmented way along the western coast of Chile and Peru (South America) between ~6°S and 30°S following an altitudinal gradient determined by a fog layer. This fragmentation has been attributed to the hyper aridity of the desert. However, periodically climatic events influence the ‘normal seasonality’ of this ecosystem through a higher than average water input that triggers plant responses (e.g. primary productivity and phenology). The impact of the climatic oscillation may vary according to the season (wet/dry). This thesis evaluates the potential effect of climate oscillations, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), through the analysis of vegetation of this ecosystem following different approaches: Chapters two and three show the analysis of fog oasis along the Peruvian and Chilean deserts. The objectives are: 1) to explain the floristic connection of fog oases analysing their taxa composition differences and the phylogenetic affinities among them, 2) to explore the climate variables related to ENSO which likely affect fog production, and the responses of Lomas vegetation (composition, productivity, distribution) to climate patterns during ENSO events. Chapters four and five describe a fog-oasis in southern Peru during the 2008-2010 period. The objectives are: 3) to describe and create a new vegetation map of the Lomas vegetation using remote sensing analysis supported by field survey data, and 4) to identify the vegetation change during the dry season. The first part of our results show that: 1) there are three significantly different groups of Lomas (Northern Peru, Southern Peru, and Chile) with a significant phylogenetic divergence among them. The species composition reveals a latitudinal gradient of plant assemblages. The species origin, growth-forms typologies, and geographic position also reinforce the differences among groups. 2) Contradictory results have emerged from studies of low-cloud anomalies and the fog-collection during El Niño (EN). EN increases water availability in fog oases when fog should be less frequent due to the reduction of low-clouds amount and stratocumulus. Because a minor role of fog during EN is expected, it is likely that measurements of fog-water collection during EN are considering drizzle and fog at the same time. Although recent studies on fog oases have shown some relationship with the ENSO, responses of vegetation have been largely based on descriptive data, the absence of large temporal records limit the establishment of a direct relationship with climatic oscillations. The second part of the results show that: 3) five different classes of different spectral values correspond to the main land cover of Lomas using a Vegetation Index (VI). The study case is characterised by shrubs and trees with variable cover (dense, semi-dense and open). A secondary area is covered by small shrubs where the dominant tree species is not present. The cacti area and the old terraces with open vegetation were not identified with the VI. Agriculture is present in the area. Finally, 4) contrary to the dry season of 2008 and 2009 years, a higher VI was obtained during the dry season of 2010. The VI increased up to three times their average value, showing a clear spectral signal change, which coincided with the ENSO event of that period.

Origini dell'ucronia. La letteratura contro la storia

L’ucronia (Alternate History) è un fenomeno letterario ormai popolare e molto studiato, ma non lo sono altrettanto lo sue origini e i suoi rapporti con la storia “fatta con i se” (Counterfactual History), che risale a Erodoto e a Tito Livio. Solo nell’Ottocento alcuni autori, per vie largamente autonome, fecero della storia alternativa un genere di fiction: Louis Geoffroy con Napoléon apocryphe (1836), storia «della conquista del mondo e della monarchia universale», e Charles Renouvier con Uchronie. L’utopie dans l’histoire (1876), storia «della civiltà europea quale avrebbe potuto essere» se il cristianesimo fosse stato fermato nel II secolo. Questi testi intrattengono relazioni complesse con la letteratura dell’epoca di genere sia realistico, sia fantastico, ma altresì con fenomeni di altra natura: la storiografia, nelle sue forme e nel suo statuto epistemico, e ancor più il senso del possibile - o la filosofia della storia - derivato dall’esperienza della rivoluzione e dal confronto con le teorie utopistiche e di riforma sociale. Altri testi, prodotti in Inghilterra e negli Stati Uniti nello stesso periodo, esplorano le possibilità narrative e speculative del genere: tra questi P.s’ Correspondence di Nathaniel Hawthorne (1845), The Battle of Dorking di George Chesney (1871) e Hands Off di Edward Hale (1881); fino a una raccolta del 1931, If It Had Happened Otherwise, che anticipò molte forme e temi delle ucronie successive. Queste opere sono esaminate sia nel contesto storico e letterario in cui furono prodotte, sia con gli strumenti dell’analisi testuale. Una particolare attenzione è dedicata alle strategie di lettura prescritte dai testi, che subordinano i significati al confronto mentale tra gli eventi narrati e la serie dei fatti autentici. Le teorie sui counterfactuals prodotte in altri campi disciplinari, come la storia e la psicologia, arricchiscono la comprensione dei testi e dei loro rapporti con fenomeni extra-letterari.