A new global wheat marketmodel (GLOWMM) for the analysis of wheat export prices

Food commodity prices fluctuations have important impacts on poverty and food insecurity across the world. Conventional models have not provided a complete picture of recent price spikes in agricultural commodity markets, while there is an urgent need for appropriate policy responses. Perhaps new approaches are needed in order to better understand international spill-overs, the feedback between the real and the financial sectors and also the link between food and energy prices. In this paper, we present results from a new worldwide dynamic model that provides short and long-run impulse responses of wheat international prices to various real shocks.

Non Invasive Tools for Early Detection of Autism Spectrum Disorders

Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASDs) describe a set of neurodevelopmental disorders. ASD represents a significant public health problem. Currently, ASDs are not diagnosed before the 2nd year of life but an early identification of ASDs would be crucial as interventions are much more effective than specific therapies starting in later childhood. To this aim, cheap an contact-less automatic approaches recently aroused great clinical interest. Among them, the cry and the movements of the newborn, both involving the central nervous system, are proposed as possible indicators of neurological disorders. This PhD work is a first step towards solving this challenging problem. An integrated system is presented enabling the recording of audio (crying) and video (movements) data of the newborn, their automatic analysis with innovative techniques for the extraction of clinically relevant parameters and their classification with data mining techniques. New robust algorithms were developed for the selection of the voiced parts of the cry signal, the estimation of acoustic parameters based on the wavelet transform and the analysis of the infant’s general movements (GMs) through a new body model for segmentation and 2D reconstruction. In addition to a thorough literature review this thesis presents the state of the art on these topics that shows that no studies exist concerning normative ranges for newborn infant cry in the first 6 months of life nor the correlation between cry and movements. Through the new automatic methods a population of control infants (“low-risk”, LR) was compared to a group of “high-risk” (HR) infants, i.e. siblings of children already diagnosed with ASD. A subset of LR infants clinically diagnosed as newborns with Typical Development (TD) and one affected by ASD were compared. The results show that the selected acoustic parameters allow good differentiation between the two groups. This result provides new perspectives both diagnostic and therapeutic.

Technologies for Ambient intelligence: from Smart Objects to Sensor Networks

n the last few years, the vision of our connected and intelligent information society has evolved to embrace novel technological and research trends. The diffusion of ubiquitous mobile connectivity and advanced handheld portable devices, amplified the importance of the Internet as the communication backbone for the fruition of services and data. The diffusion of mobile and pervasive computing devices, featuring advanced sensing technologies and processing capabilities, triggered the adoption of innovative interaction paradigms: touch responsive surfaces, tangible interfaces and gesture or voice recognition are finally entering our homes and workplaces. We are experiencing the proliferation of smart objects and sensor networks, embedded in our daily living and interconnected through the Internet. This ubiquitous network of always available interconnected devices is enabling new applications and services, ranging from enhancements to home and office environments, to remote healthcare assistance and the birth of a smart environment. This work will present some evolutions in the hardware and software development of embedded systems and sensor networks. Different hardware solutions will be introduced, ranging from smart objects for interaction to advanced inertial sensor nodes for motion tracking, focusing on system-level design. They will be accompanied by the study of innovative data processing algorithms developed and optimized to run on-board of the embedded devices. Gesture recognition, orientation estimation and data reconstruction techniques for sensor networks will be introduced and implemented, with the goal to maximize the tradeoff between performance and energy efficiency. Experimental results will provide an evaluation of the accuracy of the presented methods and validate the efficiency of the proposed embedded systems.

Origini dell'ucronia. La letteratura contro la storia

L’ucronia (Alternate History) è un fenomeno letterario ormai popolare e molto studiato, ma non lo sono altrettanto lo sue origini e i suoi rapporti con la storia “fatta con i se” (Counterfactual History), che risale a Erodoto e a Tito Livio. Solo nell’Ottocento alcuni autori, per vie largamente autonome, fecero della storia alternativa un genere di fiction: Louis Geoffroy con Napoléon apocryphe (1836), storia «della conquista del mondo e della monarchia universale», e Charles Renouvier con Uchronie. L’utopie dans l’histoire (1876), storia «della civiltà europea quale avrebbe potuto essere» se il cristianesimo fosse stato fermato nel II secolo. Questi testi intrattengono relazioni complesse con la letteratura dell’epoca di genere sia realistico, sia fantastico, ma altresì con fenomeni di altra natura: la storiografia, nelle sue forme e nel suo statuto epistemico, e ancor più il senso del possibile - o la filosofia della storia - derivato dall’esperienza della rivoluzione e dal confronto con le teorie utopistiche e di riforma sociale. Altri testi, prodotti in Inghilterra e negli Stati Uniti nello stesso periodo, esplorano le possibilità narrative e speculative del genere: tra questi P.s’ Correspondence di Nathaniel Hawthorne (1845), The Battle of Dorking di George Chesney (1871) e Hands Off di Edward Hale (1881); fino a una raccolta del 1931, If It Had Happened Otherwise, che anticipò molte forme e temi delle ucronie successive. Queste opere sono esaminate sia nel contesto storico e letterario in cui furono prodotte, sia con gli strumenti dell’analisi testuale. Una particolare attenzione è dedicata alle strategie di lettura prescritte dai testi, che subordinano i significati al confronto mentale tra gli eventi narrati e la serie dei fatti autentici. Le teorie sui counterfactuals prodotte in altri campi disciplinari, come la storia e la psicologia, arricchiscono la comprensione dei testi e dei loro rapporti con fenomeni extra-letterari.