Ensemble forecasting in the Mediterranean sea

A new methodology is being devised for ensemble ocean forecasting using distributions of the surface wind field derived from a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM). The ocean members are forced with samples from the posterior distribution of the wind during the assimilation of satellite and in-situ ocean data. The initial condition perturbations are then consistent with the best available knowledge of the ocean state at the beginning of the forecast and amplify the ocean response to uncertainty only in the forcing. The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) surface winds are also used to generate a reference ocean ensemble to evaluate the performance of the BHM method that proves to be eective in concentrating the forecast uncertainty at the ocean meso-scale. An height month experiment of weekly BHM ensemble forecasts was performed in the framework of the operational Mediterranean Forecasting System. The statistical properties of the ensemble are compared with model errors throughout the seasonal cycle proving the existence of a strong relationship between forecast uncertainties due to atmospheric forcing and the seasonal cycle.

Landscape ecology and genetics of the wolf in Italy

This PhD Thesis includes five main parts on diverse topics. The first two parts deal with the trophic ecology of wolves in Italy consequently to a recent increase of wild ungulates abundance. Data on wolf diet across time highlighted how wild ungulates are important food resource for wolves in Italy. Increasing wolf population, increasing numbers of wild ungulates and decreasing livestock consume are mitigating wolf-man conflicts in Italy in the near future. In the third part, non-invasive genetic sampling techniques were used to obtain genotypes and genders of about 400 wolves. Thus, wolf packs were genetically reconstructed using diverse population genetic and parentage software. Combining the results on pack structure and genetic relatedness with sampling locations, home ranges of wolf packs and dispersal patterns were identified. These results, particularly important for the conservation management of wolves in Italy, illustrated detailed information that can be retrieved from genetic identification of individuals. In the fourth part, wolf locations were combined with environmental information obtained as GIS-layers. Modern species distribution models (niche models) were applied to infer potential wolf distribution and predation risk. From the resulting distribution maps, information pastures with the highest risk of depredation were derived. This is particularly relevant as it allows identifying those areas under danger of carnivore attack on livestock. Finally, in the fifth part, habitat suitability models were combined with landscape genetic analysis. On one side landscape genetic analyses on the Italian wolves provided new information on the dynamics and connectivity of the population and, on the other side, a profound analysis of the effects that habitat suitability methods had on the parameterization of landscape genetic analyses was carried out to contributed significantly to landscape genetic theory.

Natural patterns and anthropogenic disturbance in north Adriatic marine benthic assemblages: descriptive and methodological studies

Marine soft bottom systems show a high variability across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Both natural and anthropogenic sources of disturbance act together in affecting benthic sedimentary characteristics and species distribution. The description of such spatial variability is required to understand the ecological processes behind them. However, in order to have a better estimate of spatial patterns, methods that take into account the complexity of the sedimentary system are required. This PhD thesis aims to give a significant contribution both in improving the methodological approaches to the study of biological variability in soft bottom habitats and in increasing the knowledge of the effect that different process (both natural and anthropogenic) could have on the benthic communities of a large area in the North Adriatic Sea. Beta diversity is a measure of the variability in species composition, and Whittaker’s index has become the most widely used measure of beta-diversity. However, application of the Whittaker index to soft bottom assemblages of the Adriatic Sea highlighted its sensitivity to rare species (species recorded in a single sample). This over-weighting of rare species induces biased estimates of the heterogeneity, thus it becomes difficult to compare assemblages containing a high proportion of rare species. In benthic communities, the unusual large number of rare species is frequently attributed to a combination of sampling errors and insufficient sampling effort. In order to reduce the influence of rare species on the measure of beta diversity, I have developed an alternative index based on simple probabilistic considerations. It turns out that this probability index is an ordinary Michaelis-Menten transformation of Whittaker's index but behaves more favourably when species heterogeneity increases. The suggested index therefore seems appropriate when comparing patterns of complexity in marine benthic assemblages. Although the new index makes an important contribution to the study of biodiversity in sedimentary environment, it remains to be seen which processes, and at what scales, influence benthic patterns. The ability to predict the effects of ecological phenomena on benthic fauna highly depends on both spatial and temporal scales of variation. Once defined, implicitly or explicitly, these scales influence the questions asked, the methodological approaches and the interpretation of results. Problem often arise when representative samples are not taken and results are over-generalized, as can happen when results from small-scale experiments are used for resource planning and management. Such issues, although globally recognized, are far from been resolved in the North Adriatic Sea. This area is potentially affected by both natural (e.g. river inflow, eutrophication) and anthropogenic (e.g. gas extraction, fish-trawling) sources of disturbance. Although few studies in this area aimed at understanding which of these processes mainly affect macrobenthos, these have been conducted at a small spatial scale, as they were designated to examine local changes in benthic communities or particular species. However, in order to better describe all the putative processes occurring in the entire area, a high sampling effort performed at a large spatial scale is required. The sedimentary environment of the western part of the Adriatic Sea was extensively studied in this thesis. I have described, in detail, spatial patterns both in terms of sedimentary characteristics and macrobenthic organisms and have suggested putative processes (natural or of human origin) that might affect the benthic environment of the entire area. In particular I have examined the effect of off shore gas platforms on benthic diversity and tested their effect over a background of natural spatial variability. The results obtained suggest that natural processes in the North Adriatic such as river outflow and euthrophication show an inter-annual variability that might have important consequences on benthic assemblages, affecting for example their spatial pattern moving away from the coast and along a North to South gradient. Depth-related factors, such as food supply, light, temperature and salinity play an important role in explaining large scale benthic spatial variability (i.e., affecting both the abundance patterns and beta diversity). Nonetheless, more locally, effects probably related to an organic enrichment or pollution from Po river input has been observed. All these processes, together with few human-induced sources of variability (e.g. fishing disturbance), have a higher effect on macrofauna distribution than any effect related to the presence of gas platforms. The main effect of gas platforms is restricted mainly to small spatial scales and related to a change in habitat complexity due to a natural dislodgement or structure cleaning of mussels that colonize their legs. The accumulation of mussels on the sediment reasonably affects benthic infauna composition. All the components of the study presented in this thesis highlight the need to carefully consider methodological aspects related to the study of sedimentary habitats. With particular regards to the North Adriatic Sea, a multi-scale analysis along natural and anthopogenic gradients was useful for detecting the influence of all the processes affecting the sedimentary environment. In the future, applying a similar approach may lead to an unambiguous assessment of the state of the benthic community in the North Adriatic Sea. Such assessment may be useful in understanding if any anthropogenic source of disturbance has a negative effect on the marine environment, and if so, planning sustainable strategies for a proper management of the affected area.

Earthquake forecasting and seismic hazard analysis: some insights on the testing phase and the modeling

This thesis is divided in three chapters. In the first chapter we analyse the results of the world forecasting experiment run by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). We take the opportunity of this experiment to contribute to the definition of a more robust and reliable statistical procedure to evaluate earthquake forecasting models. We first present the models and the target earthquakes to be forecast. Then we explain the consistency and comparison tests that are used in CSEP experiments to evaluate the performance of the models. Introducing a methodology to create ensemble forecasting models, we show that models, when properly combined, are almost always better performing that any single model. In the second chapter we discuss in depth one of the basic features of PSHA: the declustering of the seismicity rates. We first introduce the Cornell-McGuire method for PSHA and we present the different motivations that stand behind the need of declustering seismic catalogs. Using a theorem of the modern probability (Le Cam's theorem) we show that the declustering is not necessary to obtain a Poissonian behaviour of the exceedances that is usually considered fundamental to transform exceedance rates in exceedance probabilities in the PSHA framework. We present a method to correct PSHA for declustering, building a more realistic PSHA. In the last chapter we explore the methods that are commonly used to take into account the epistemic uncertainty in PSHA. The most widely used method is the logic tree that stands at the basis of the most advanced seismic hazard maps. We illustrate the probabilistic structure of the logic tree, and then we show that this structure is not adequate to describe the epistemic uncertainty. We then propose a new probabilistic framework based on the ensemble modelling that properly accounts for epistemic uncertainties in PSHA.

Understanding the Combined Role of Internal and External Factors in New Service Development Process within the Professional Knowledge Intensive Business Service Firms

Our research asked the following main questions: how the characteristics of professionals service firms allow them to successfully innovate in exploiting through exploring by combining internal and external factors of innovation and how these ambidextrous organisations perceive these factors; and how do successful innovators in professional service firms use corporate entrepreneurship models in their new service development processes? With a goal to shed light on innovation in professional knowledge intensive business service firms’ (PKIBS), we concluded a qualitative analysis of ten globally acting law firms, providing business legal services. We analyse the internal and factors of innovation that are critical for PKIBS’ innovation. We suggest how these firms become ambidextrous in changing environment. Our findings show that this kind of firms has particular type of ambidexterity due to their specific characteristics. As PKIBS are very dependant on its human capital, governance structure, and the high expectations of their clients, their ambidexterity is structural, but also contextual at the same time. In addition, we suggest 3 types of corporate entrepreneurship models that international PKIBS use to enhance innovation in turbulent environments. We looked at how law firms going through turbulent environments were using corporate entrepreneurship activities as a part of their strategies to be more innovative. Using visual mapping methodology, we developed three types of innovation patterns in the law firms. We suggest that corporate entrepreneurship models depend on successful application of mainly three elements: who participates in corporate entrepreneurship initiatives; what are the formal processes that enhances these initiatives; and what are the policies applied to this type of behaviour.

Toward an understanding of the atmospheric forcing uncertainties in the Mediterranean Sea

The thesis has extensively investigated for the first time the statistical distributions of atmospheric surface variables and heat fluxes for the Mediterranean Sea. After retrieving a 30-year atmospheric analysis dataset, we have captured the spatial patterns of the probability distribution of the relevant atmospheric variables for ocean atmospheric forcing: wind components (U,V), wind amplitude, air temperature (T2M), dewpoint temperature (D2M) and mean sea-level pressure (MSL-P). The study reveals that a two-parameter PDF is not a good fit for T2M, D2M, MSL-P and wind components (U,V) and a three parameter skew-normal PDF is better suited. Such distribution captures properly the data asymmetric tails (skewness). After removing the large seasonal cycle, we show the quality of the fit and the geographic structure of the PDF parameters. It is found that the PDF parameters vary between different regions, in particular the shape (connected to the asymmetric tails) and the scale (connected to the spread of the distribution) parameters cluster around two or more values, probably connected to the different dynamics that produces the surface atmospheric fields in the Mediterranean basin. Moreover, using the atmospheric variables, we have computed the air-sea heat fluxes for a 20-years period and estimated the net heat budget over the Mediterranean Sea. Interestingly, the higher resolution analysis dataset provides a negative heat budget of –3 W/m2 which is within the acceptable range for the Mediterranean Sea heat budget closure. The lower resolution atmospheric reanalysis dataset(ERA5) does not satisfy the heat budget closure problem pointing out that a minimal resolution of the atmospheric forcing is crucial for the Mediterranean Sea dynamics. The PDF framework developed in this thesis will be the basis for a future ensemble forecasting system that will use the statistical distributions to create perturbations of the atmospheric ocean forcing.

Towards a more sustainable aquaculture: diets effects and environmental impact of aquaculture from a microbiome perspective

There is a lot of interest to optimize aquaculture production due to its overexploitation of marine resources, ocean pollution and habitat destruction. Since feed production is one of the greatest issues in aquaculture, feeding strategy optimization is important. The study of several different feed additives or supplementation is important to secure optimal growth, gut health, and function in farmed fish. Feed additives are typically supplied to ensure good health and to help the animal ward off pathogens during both normal and challenging conditions, which could stress animals and promote insurgence of pathologies or pathogens invasions. In this context has an increasing interest the study of host associated microbiome to understand the influence of novel functional feed on the health and physiology of animals. To achieve a more sustainable aquaculture sector, show a great importance the understanding of the environmental impact of this human activity in terms of habitat destruction, ocean pollution and reduction marine environments biodiversity. Marine microbiomes, either free-living or associated with multicellular hosts, is acquiring an increasing interest because their role in supporting the functioning and biodiversity of marine ecosystems, providing essential ecological services. Becoming extremely important to understand how these activities can affect marine microbiomes by altering their function and diversity. In this thesis work, we were able to present a comprehensive evaluation of different functional feeds assessing their effects in terms of growth and gut health of three fish species, Rainbow Trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), Gilthead seabream (Sparus aurata) and Zebrafish (Danio rerio). We also explored the impact of Aquaculture on the surrounding marine microbiomes, using Patella caerulea as a model holobionts. Finally, we provided a synoptical study on the microbiomes of the water column and surface sediments in North-Western Adriatic Sea (Italy), providing the finest-scale mapping of marine microbiomes in the Mediterranean Sea.

Molecular diversity of Primula apennina and phylogeny of Primula Subsection Euauricula

Primula apennina Widmer is endemic to the North Apennines (Italy). ISSR were used to detect the genetic diversity within and among six populations representative of the species distribution range. High levels of genetic diversity were revealed both at population (PPB = 75.92%, HS = 0.204, Hpop = 0.319) and at species level (PPB = 96.95%, HT = 0.242, Hsp = 0.381). Nei gene diversity statistics (15.7%), Shannon diversity index (16.3%) and AMOVA (14%) detected a moderate level of interpopulation diversity. Principal coordinate and bayesian analyses clustered the populations in three major groups along a geographic gradient. The correlation between genetic and geographic distances was positive (Mantel test, r = 0.232). All together, these analyses revealed a weak but significant spatial genetic structure in P. apennina, with gene flow acting as a homogenizing force that prevents a stronger differentiation of populations. Conservation measures are suggested based on the observed pattern of genetic variability. P. apennina belongs to Primula subsect. Euauricula which includes 15 species distributed on the whole Alps and Apennines. A phylogenetic analysis was carried out using AFLP markers in order both to clarify the relationships among the species of subsection Euauricula that remained unresolved in previous works and to make some hypoteses on their evolutive dynamics. NJ, PCO and BAPS analyses strongly confirmed the monophyly of P. subsect. Euauricula and all the species form strongly supported clades. NJ tree topology suggested a simultaneous fragmentations of ancestral species in a large number of isolated populations that survived in refugia along the unglaciated margins of the Alps in response to the Pleistocene climatic oscillations.

Towards the conservation of vulnerable marine large predators: morphometric, molecular and microchemical variation of historical sawfish rostra from Mediterranean collections

Sawfishes (Chondrichthyes, Pristidae) are considered one of the most endangered families among elasmobranchs. Extensive efforts are required worldwide to gather solid information on historical and recent changes in the composition/range of species. In this study, we have implemented an integrative approach to characterize the species diversity and the abundance of historical rostra of sawfishes from museums and private collections of the Mediterranean area. The identification at the species level of 172 dried rostra was carried out through the integration of both traditional and geometric morphometric techniques with molecular tools, allowing the assessment of a robust methodical approach to discriminate species. In addition, we analysed 35 rostral teeth to clarify the past distribution of sawfish species considering the isotopic composition of oxygen and carbon. The morphometric, molecular, and geographical characterization of samples was accompanied by the preliminary evaluation of growth structures and the inspection of the strontium isotope composition in two teeth to unravel movement patterns of individuals across different salinities of water. Results were integrated with currently available data from public repositories and showed that the historical specimens belonged to four nominal species: Pristis zijsron (81), Anoxypristis cuspidata (39), P. pristis (30), and P. pectinata (22). An identification error of 5.41% emerged in the morphological distinction of rostra between juvenile individuals of P. pectinata and P. zijsron. The new approach of carbon and oxygen isotopes, implemented for the first time in these taxa, permitted the identification of the high-probability habitat preferences of these benthopelagic elasmobranchs in about 50% of the analysed specimens. Using this multidisciplinary approach, we successfully assigned the numerous museum rostra with lacking data to a given species and identified their candidate geographical origin, retrieving novel information and data for understanding the species distribution and ecology of past, sometimes locally/regionally extinct sawfish faunas.

Impact of anthropogenic stressors on the microbial communities in marine holobionts and ecosystems

Free-living or host-associated marine microbiomes play a determinant role in supporting the functioning and biodiversity of marine ecosystems, providing essential ecological services, and promoting the health of the entire biosphere. Currently, the fast and restless increase of World’s human population strongly impacts life on Earth in the forms of ocean pollution, coastal zone destruction, overexploitation of marine resources, and climate change. Thanks to their phylogenetic, metabolic, and functional diversity, marine microbiomes represent the Earth’s biggest reservoir of solutions against the major threats that are now impacting marine ecosystems, possibly providing valuable insights for biotechnological applications to preserve the health of the ocean ecosystems. Microbial-based mitigation strategies heavily rely on the available knowledge on the specific role and composition of holobionts associated microbial communities, thus highlighting the importance of pioneer studies on microbial-mediated adaptive mechanisms in the marine habitats. In this context, we propose different models representing ecologically important, widely distributed, and habitat-forming organisms, to further investigate the ability of marine holobionts to dynamically adapt to natural environmental variations, as well as to anthropogenic stress factors. In this PhD thesis, we were able to supply the characterization of the microbial community associated with the model anthozoan cnidaria Corynactis viridis throughout a seasonal gradient, to provide critical insights into microbiome-host interactions in a biomonitoring perspective. We also dissected in details the microbial-derived mitigation strategies implemented by the benthonic anthozoan Anemonia viridis and the gastropod Patella caerulea as models of adaptation to anthropogenic stressors, in the context of bioremediation of human-impacted habitats and for the monitoring and preservation of coastal marine ecosystems, respectively. Finally, we provided a functional model of adaptation to future ocean acidification conditions by characterizing the microbial community associated with the temperate coral Balanophyllia europaea naturally living at low pH conditions, to implement microbial based actions to mitigate climate change.

La distribución tradicional y online: la distribución dual

El 10 de mayo de 2022 se publicó el Reglamento (UE) 720/2022 relativo a la aplicación del apartado 3 del artículo 101 del TFUE a determinadas categorías de acuerdos verticales y prácticas concertadas. Entre las novedades más significativas introducidas por el Reglamento se encuentra la regulación de la distribución dual. La distribución dual es una situación en la que un fabricante decide distribuir sus productos directamente (utilizando sus propios distribuidores) y, al mismo tiempo, contratar a distribuidores independientes (que no tienen ninguna relación de propiedad con el fabricante). En efecto, en la distribución dual, el fabricante compite a dos niveles: por un lado, a nivel de fabricante -compite con otras empresas que fabrican productos potencialmente sustitutivos- y, por otro, a nivel de distribución -compite con distribuidores independientes en la venta de sus productos-. Es en este último nivel donde existe el riesgo de restringir la competencia cuando el fabricante impone restricciones (por ejemplo, precios mínimos u otras condiciones de venta) a sus distribuidores independientes. En consecuencia, en el presente trabajo se estudia, en primer lugar, la naturaleza del contrato de distribución tanto en el derecho español como en el derecho comparado. En segundo lugar, se analizan las principales cuestiones relacionadas con el modelo de distribución online, en primer lugar, se realiza un estudio exhaustivo de las plataformas digitales o marketplaces, analizando sus características, sus tipos y las partes que intervienen en ellas, en segundo lugar, se examina la posibilidad de calificar el contrato entre las plataformas digitales y el vendedor o prestador de servicios como contrato de distribución, analizando su contenido contractual y su encaje en el Reglamento (UE) 2019/1150. Finalmente, se concluye con una profundización en el sistema de distribución dual, así como un estudio de los intercambios de información que tienen lugar en un sistema de distribución dual.

Characterization of fold-related fractures in the carbonate rocks of the Cingoli anticline, northern Apennines, Italy

Thrust fault-related folds in carbonate rocks are characterized by deformation accommodated by different structures, such as joints, faults, pressure solution seams, and deformation bands. Defining the development of fracture systems related to the folding process is significant both for theoretical and practical purposes. Fracture systems are useful constrains in order to understand the kinematical evolution of the fold. Furthermore, understanding the relationships between folding and fracturing provides a noteworthy contribution for reconstructing the geodynamic and the structural evolution of the studied area. Moreover, as fold-related fractures influence fluid flow through rocks, fracture systems are relevant for energy production (geothermal studies, methane and CO2 , storage and hydrocarbon exploration), environmental and social issues (pollutant distribution, aquifer characterization). The PhD project shows results of a study carried out in a multilayer carbonate anticline characterized by different mechanical properties. The aim of this study is to understand the factors which influence the fracture formation and to define their temporal sequence during the folding process. The studied are is located in the Cingoli anticline (Northern Apennines), which is characterized by a pelagic multilayer characterized by sequences with different mechanical stratigraphies. A multi-scale analysis has been made in several outcrops located in different structural positions. This project shows that the conceptual sketches proposed in literature and the strain distribution models outline well the geometrical orientation of most of the set of fractures observed in the Cingoli anticline. On the other hand, the present work suggests the relevance of the mechanical stratigraphy in particular controlling the type of fractures formed (e.g. pressure solution seams, joints or shear fractures) and their subsequent evolution. Through a multi-scale analysis, and on the basis of the temporal relationship between fracture sets and their orientation respect layering, I also suggest a conceptual model for fracture systems formation.

Analysis of earthquakes predictability

Earthquake prediction is a complex task for scientists due to the rare occurrence of high-intensity earthquakes and their inaccessible depths. Despite this challenge, it is a priority to protect infrastructure, and populations living in areas of high seismic risk. Reliable forecasting requires comprehensive knowledge of seismic phenomena. In this thesis, the development, application, and comparison of both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting methods is shown. Regarding the deterministic approach, the implementation of an alarm-based method using the occurrence of strong (fore)shocks, widely felt by the population, as a precursor signal is described. This model is then applied for retrospective prediction of Italian earthquakes of magnitude M≥5.0,5.5,6.0, occurred in Italy from 1960 to 2020. Retrospective performance testing is carried out using tests and statistics specific to deterministic alarm-based models. Regarding probabilistic models, this thesis focuses mainly on the EEPAS and ETAS models. Although the EEPAS model has been previously applied and tested in some regions of the world, it has never been used for forecasting Italian earthquakes. In the thesis, the EEPAS model is used to retrospectively forecast Italian shallow earthquakes with a magnitude of M≥5.0 using new MATLAB software. The forecasting performance of the probabilistic models was compared to other models using CSEP binary tests. The EEPAS and ETAS models showed different characteristics for forecasting Italian earthquakes, with EEPAS performing better in the long-term and ETAS performing better in the short-term. The FORE model based on strong precursor quakes is compared to EEPAS and ETAS using an alarm-based deterministic approach. All models perform better than a random forecasting model, with ETAS and FORE models showing better performance. However, to fully evaluate forecasting performance, prospective tests should be conducted. The lack of objective tests for evaluating deterministic models and comparing them with probabilistic ones was a challenge faced during the study.