Erosione e sollevamento nell'arco calabro-peloritano

The Calabrian-Peloritani arc represents key site to unravel evolution of surface processes on top of subducting lithosphere. During the Pleistocene, in fact the arc uplifted at rate of the order of about 1mm/yr, forming high-standing low-relief upland (figure 2). Our study is focused on the relationship between tectonic and land evolution in the Sila Massif, Messina strait and Peloritani Mts. Landforms reflect a competition between tectonic, climatic, and surficial processes. Many landscape evolution models that explore feedbacks between these competing processes, given steady forcing, predict a state of erosional equilibrium, where the rates of river incision and hillslope erosion balance rock uplift. It has been suggested that this may be the final constructive stage of orogenic systems. Assumptions of steady erosion and incision are used in the interpretation of exhumation and uplift rates from different geologic data, and in the formulation of fluvial incision and hillslope evolution models. In the Sila massif we carried out cosmogenic isotopes analysis on 24 samples of modern fluvial sediments to constrain long-term (~103 yr) erosion rate averaged on the catchment area. 35 longitudinal rivers profiles have been analyzed to study the tectonic signal on the landscape evolution. The rivers analyzed exhibit a wide variety of profile forms, diverging from equilibrium state form. Generally the river profiles show at least 2 and often 3 distinct concave-up knickpoint-bounded segments, characterized by different value of concavity and steepness indices. River profiles suggest three main stages of incision. The values of ks and θ in the lower segments evidence a decrease in river incision, due probably to increasing uplift rate. The cosmogenic erosion rates pointed out that old landscape upland is eroding slowly at ~0.1 mm/yr. In the contrary, the flanks of the massif is eroding faster with value from 0.4 to 0.5 mm/yr due to river incision and hillslope processes. Cosmogenic erosion rates mach linearly with steepness indices and with average hillslope gradient. In the Messina area the long term erosion rate from low-T thermochronometry are of the same order than millennium scale cosmogenic erosion rate (1-2 mm/yr). In this part of the chain the fast erosion is active since several million years, probably controlled by extensional tectonic regime. In the Peloritani Mts apatite fission-track and (U-Th)/He thermochronometry are applied to constraint the thermal history of the basement rock. Apatite fission-track ages range between 29.0±5.5 and 5.5±0.9 Ma while apatite (U-Th)/He ages vary from 19.4 to 1.0 Ma. Most of the AFT ages are younger than the overlying terrigenous sequence that in turn postdates the main orogenic phase. Through the coupling of the thermal modelling with the stratigraphic record, a Middle Miocene thermal event due to tectonic burial is unravel. This event affected a inner-intermediate portion of the Peloritani belt confined by young AFT data (<15 Ma) distribution. We interpret this thermal event as due to an out-of–sequence thrusting occurring in the inner portion of the belt. Young (U-Th)/He ages (c. 5 Ma) record a final exhumation stage with increasing rates of denudation since the Pliocene times due to postorogenic extensional tectonics and regional uplift. In the final chapter we change the spatial scale to insert digital topography analysis and field data within a geodynamic model that can explain surface evidence produced by subduction process.

Velocity structure and seismic anisotropy in the crust and upper mantle from Receiver Function analysis: three case studies in Italy

The research for this PhD project consisted in the application of the RFs analysis technique to different data-sets of teleseismic events recorded at temporary and permanent stations located in three distinct study regions: Colli Albani area, Northern Apennines and Southern Apennines. We found some velocity models to interpret the structures in these regions, which possess very different geologic and tectonics characteristics and therefore offer interesting case study to face. In the Colli Albani some of the features evidenced in the RFs are shared by all the analyzed stations: the Moho is almost flat and is located at about 23 km depth, and the presence of a relatively shallow limestone layer is a stable feature; contrariwise there are features which vary from station to station, indicating local complexities. Three seismic stations, close to the central part of the former volcanic edifice, display relevant anisotropic signatures­­­ with symmetry axes consistent with the emplacement of the magmatic chamber. Two further anisotropic layers are present at greater depth, in the lower crust and the upper mantle, respectively, with symmetry axes directions related to the evolution of the volcano complex. In Northern Apennines we defined the isotropic structure of the area, finding the depth of the Tyrrhenian (almost 25 km and flat) and Adriatic (40 km and dipping underneath the Apennines crests) Mohos. We determined a zone in which the two Mohos overlap, and identified an anisotropic body in between, involved in the subduction and going down with the Adiratic Moho. We interpreted the downgoing anisotropic layer as generated by post-subduction delamination of the top-slab layer, probably made of metamorphosed crustal rocks caught in the subduction channel and buoyantly rising toward the surface. In the Southern Apennines, we found the Moho depth for 16 seismic stations, and highlighted the presence of an anisotropic layer underneath each station, at about 15-20 km below the whole study area. The moho displays a dome-like geometry, as it is shallow (29 km) in the central part of the study area, whereas it deepens peripherally (down to 45 km); the symmetry axes of anisotropic layer, interpreted as a layer separating the upper and the lower crust, show a moho-related pattern, indicated by the foliation of the layer which is parallel to the Moho trend. Moreover, due to the exceptional seismic event occurred on April 6th next to L’Aquila town, we determined the Vs model for two station located next to the epicenter. An extremely high velocity body is found underneath AQU station at 4-10 km depth, reaching Vs of about 4 km/s, while this body is lacking underneath FAGN station. We compared the presence of this body with other recent works and found an anti-correlation between the high Vs body, the max slip patches and earthquakes distribution. The nature of this body is speculative since such high velocities are consistent with deep crust or upper mantle, but can be interpreted as a as high strength barrier of which the high Vs is a typical connotation.

Analysis of eruptive and seismic sequences to improve the short-and long-term eruption forecasting

Forecasting the time, location, nature, and scale of volcanic eruptions is one of the most urgent aspects of modern applied volcanology. The reliability of probabilistic forecasting procedures is strongly related to the reliability of the input information provided, implying objective criteria for interpreting the historical and monitoring data. For this reason both, detailed analysis of past data and more basic research into the processes of volcanism, are fundamental tasks of a continuous information-gain process; in this way the precursor events of eruptions can be better interpreted in terms of their physical meanings with correlated uncertainties. This should lead to better predictions of the nature of eruptive events. In this work we have studied different problems associated with the long- and short-term eruption forecasting assessment. First, we discuss different approaches for the analysis of the eruptive history of a volcano, most of them generally applied for long-term eruption forecasting purposes; furthermore, we present a model based on the characteristics of a Brownian passage-time process to describe recurrent eruptive activity, and apply it for long-term, time-dependent, eruption forecasting (Chapter 1). Conversely, in an effort to define further monitoring parameters as input data for short-term eruption forecasting in probabilistic models (as for example, the Bayesian Event Tree for eruption forecasting -BET_EF-), we analyze some characteristics of typical seismic activity recorded in active volcanoes; in particular, we use some methodologies that may be applied to analyze long-period (LP) events (Chapter 2) and volcano-tectonic (VT) seismic swarms (Chapter 3); our analysis in general are oriented toward the tracking of phenomena that can provide information about magmatic processes. Finally, we discuss some possible ways to integrate the results presented in Chapters 1 (for long-term EF), 2 and 3 (for short-term EF) in the BET_EF model (Chapter 4).

Development of the optimal estimation method for inversion of stratospheric emission spectra and validation of HNO3 profiles

This doctoral thesis focuses on ground-based measurements of stratospheric nitric acid (HNO3)concentrations obtained by means of the Ground-Based Millimeter-wave Spectrometer (GBMS). Pressure broadened HNO3 emission spectra are analyzed using a new inversion algorithm developed as part of this thesis work and the retrieved vertical profiles are extensively compared to satellite-based data. This comparison effort I carried out has a key role in establishing a long-term (1991-2010), global data record of stratospheric HNO3, with an expected impact on studies concerning ozone decline and recovery. The first part of this work is focused on the development of an ad hoc version of the Optimal Estimation Method (Rodgers, 2000) in order to retrieve HNO3 spectra observed by means of GBMS. I also performed a comparison between HNO3 vertical profiles retrieved with the OEM and those obtained with the old iterative Matrix Inversion method. Results show no significant differences in retrieved profiles and error estimates, with the OEM providing however additional information needed to better characterize the retrievals. A final section of this first part of the work is dedicated to a brief review on the application of the OEM to other trace gases observed by GBMS, namely O3 and N2O. The second part of this study deals with the validation of HNO3 profiles obtained with the new inversion method. The first step has been the validation of GBMS measurements of tropospheric opacity, which is a necessary tool in the calibration of any GBMS spectra. This was achieved by means of comparisons among correlative measurements of water vapor column content (or Precipitable Water Vapor, PWV) since, in the spectral region observed by GBMS, the tropospheric opacity is almost entirely due to water vapor absorption. In particular, I compared GBMS PWV measurements collected during the primary field campaign of the ECOWAR project (Bhawar et al., 2008) with simultaneous PWV observations obtained with Vaisala RS92k radiosondes, a Raman lidar, and an IR Fourier transform spectrometer. I found that GBMS PWV measurements are in good agreement with the other three data sets exhibiting a mean difference between observations of ~9%. After this initial validation, GBMS HNO3 retrievals have been compared to two sets of satellite data produced by the two NASA/JPL Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) experiments (aboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) from 1991 to 1999, and on the Earth Observing System (EOS) Aura mission from 2004 to date). This part of my thesis is inserted in GOZCARDS (Global Ozone Chemistry and Related Trace gas Data Records for the Stratosphere), a multi-year project, aimed at developing a long-term data record of stratospheric constituents relevant to the issues of ozone decline and expected recovery. This data record will be based mainly on satellite-derived measurements but ground-based observations will be pivotal for assessing offsets between satellite data sets. Since the GBMS has been operated for more than 15 years, its nitric acid data record offers a unique opportunity for cross-calibrating HNO3 measurements from the two MLS experiments. I compare GBMS HNO3 measurements obtained from the Italian Alpine station of Testa Grigia (45.9° N, 7.7° E, elev. 3500 m), during the period February 2004 - March 2007, and from Thule Air Base, Greenland (76.5°N 68.8°W), during polar winter 2008/09, and Aura MLS observations. A similar intercomparison is made between UARS MLS HNO3 measurements with those carried out from the GBMS at South Pole, Antarctica (90°S), during the most part of 1993 and 1995. I assess systematic differences between GBMS and both UARS and Aura HNO3 data sets at seven potential temperature levels. Results show that, except for measurements carried out at Thule, ground based and satellite data sets are consistent within the errors, at all potential temperature levels.

Preliminary studies for the establishment of a tsunami early detection algorithm to be used in the frame of a Tsunami Warning System

This thesis presents and discusses TEDA, an algorithm for the automatic detection in real-time of tsunamis and large amplitude waves on sea level records. TEDA has been developed in the frame of the Tsunami Research Team of the University of Bologna for coastal tide gauges and it has been calibrated and tested for the tide gauge station of Adak Island, in Alaska. A preliminary study to apply TEDA to offshore buoys in the Pacific Ocean is also presented.

Modeling hydrothermal system: deriving observables and hydrothermal instability in volcanic and non-volcanic setting

Hydrothermal fluids are a fundamental resource for understanding and monitoring volcanic and non-volcanic systems. This thesis is focused on the study of hydrothermal system through numerical modeling with the geothermal simulator TOUGH2. Several simulations are presented, and geophysical and geochemical observables, arising from fluids circulation, are analyzed in detail throughout the thesis. In a volcanic setting, fluids feeding fumaroles and hot spring may play a key role in the hazard evaluation. The evolution of the fluids circulation is caused by a strong interaction between magmatic and hydrothermal systems. A simultaneous analysis of different geophysical and geochemical observables is a sound approach for interpreting monitored data and to infer a consistent conceptual model. Analyzed observables are ground displacement, gravity changes, electrical conductivity, amount, composition and temperature of the emitted gases at surface, and extent of degassing area. Results highlight the different temporal response of the considered observables, as well as the different radial pattern of variation. However, magnitude, temporal response and radial pattern of these signals depend not only on the evolution of fluid circulation, but a main role is played by the considered rock properties. Numerical simulations highlight differences that arise from the assumption of different permeabilities, for both homogeneous and heterogeneous systems. Rock properties affect hydrothermal fluid circulation, controlling both the range of variation and the temporal evolution of the observable signals. Low temperature fumaroles and low discharge rate may be affected by atmospheric conditions. Detailed parametric simulations were performed, aimed to understand the effects of system properties, such as permeability and gas reservoir overpressure, on diffuse degassing when air temperature and barometric pressure changes are applied to the ground surface. Hydrothermal circulation, however, is not only a characteristic of volcanic system. Hot fluids may be involved in several mankind problems, such as studies on geothermal engineering, nuclear waste propagation in porous medium, and Geological Carbon Sequestration (GCS). The current concept for large-scale GCS is the direct injection of supercritical carbon dioxide into deep geological formations which typically contain brine. Upward displacement of such brine from deep reservoirs driven by pressure increases resulting from carbon dioxide injection may occur through abandoned wells, permeable faults or permeable channels. Brine intrusion into aquifers may degrade groundwater resources. Numerical results show that pressure rise drives dense water up to the conduits, and does not necessarily result in continuous flow. Rather, overpressure leads to new hydrostatic equilibrium if fluids are initially density stratified. If warm and salty fluid does not cool passing through the conduit, an oscillatory solution is then possible. Parameter studies delineate steady-state (static) and oscillatory solutions.