Earthquake forecasting and seismic hazard analysis: some insights on the testing phase and the modeling

This thesis is divided in three chapters. In the first chapter we analyse the results of the world forecasting experiment run by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). We take the opportunity of this experiment to contribute to the definition of a more robust and reliable statistical procedure to evaluate earthquake forecasting models. We first present the models and the target earthquakes to be forecast. Then we explain the consistency and comparison tests that are used in CSEP experiments to evaluate the performance of the models. Introducing a methodology to create ensemble forecasting models, we show that models, when properly combined, are almost always better performing that any single model. In the second chapter we discuss in depth one of the basic features of PSHA: the declustering of the seismicity rates. We first introduce the Cornell-McGuire method for PSHA and we present the different motivations that stand behind the need of declustering seismic catalogs. Using a theorem of the modern probability (Le Cam's theorem) we show that the declustering is not necessary to obtain a Poissonian behaviour of the exceedances that is usually considered fundamental to transform exceedance rates in exceedance probabilities in the PSHA framework. We present a method to correct PSHA for declustering, building a more realistic PSHA. In the last chapter we explore the methods that are commonly used to take into account the epistemic uncertainty in PSHA. The most widely used method is the logic tree that stands at the basis of the most advanced seismic hazard maps. We illustrate the probabilistic structure of the logic tree, and then we show that this structure is not adequate to describe the epistemic uncertainty. We then propose a new probabilistic framework based on the ensemble modelling that properly accounts for epistemic uncertainties in PSHA.

Electrochemical surface modification of Single walled carbon nanotubes and graphene-based electrodes for (bio)sensing applications

Sensors are devices that have shown widespread use, from the detection of gas molecules to the tracking of chemical signals in biological cells. Single walled carbon nanotube (SWCNT) and graphene based electrodes have demonstrated to be an excellent material for the development of electrochemical biosensors as they display remarkable electronic properties and the ability to act as individual nanoelectrodes, display an excellent low-dimensional charge carrier transport, and promote surface electrocatalysis. The present work aims at the preparation and investigation of electrochemically modified SWCNT and graphene-based electrodes for applications in the field of biosensors. We initially studied SWCNT films and focused on their topography and surface composition, electrical and optical properties. Parallel to SWCNTs, graphene films were investigated. Higher resistance values were obtained in comparison with nanotubes films. The electrochemical surface modification of both electrodes was investigated following two routes (i) the electrografting of aryl diazonium salts, and (ii) the electrophylic addition of 1, 3-benzodithiolylium tetrafluoroborate (BDYT). Both the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the modified electrode surfaces were studied such as the degree of functionalization and their surface composition. The combination of Raman, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, atomic force microscopy, electrochemistry and other techniques, has demonstrated that selected precursors could be covalently anchored to the nanotubes and graphene-based electrode surfaces through novel carbon-carbon formation.

Histone deacetylase inhibitors in adult patients with diffuse large b-cell lymphoma relapsed/refractory: a phase II study with Panobinostat

Backgrounds:Treatment of patients with relapsed/refractory (R/R) diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) not eligible to high dose therapy represents an unmet medical need. Panobinostat showed encouraging therapeutic activity in studies conducted in lymphoma cell lines and in vivo in patients with advanced hematologic malignancies.Purpose:FIL-PanAL10 (NCT01523834) is a phase II, prospective multicenter trial of the Fondazione Italiana Linfomi (FIL) to evaluate safety and efficacy of single agent Panobinostat as salvage therapy for R/R DLBCL patients and to evaluate a possible relationships between response and any biological features. Patients and Methods:Patients with R/R DLBCL were included. The treatment plan included 6 induction courses with Panobinostat monotherapy followed by other 6 courses of consolidation. The primary objective was to evaluate Panobinostat activity in terms of overall response (OR); secondary objectives were: CR rate, time to response (TTR), progression-free survival (PFS), safety and feasibility of Panobinostat. We included evaluation of the impact of pharmacogenetics, immunohistochemical patterns and patient’s specific gene expression and mutations as potential predictors of response to Panobinostat as explorative objectives. To this aim a pre-enrollment new tissue biopsy was mandatory. ResultsThirty-five patients, 21 males (60%), were enrolled between June 2011 and March 2014. At the end of induction phase, 7 responses (20%) were observed, including 4 CR (11%), while 28 patients (80%) discontinued treatment due to progressive disease (PD) in 21 (60%) or adverse events in 7 (20%). Median TTR in 9 responders was 2.6 months (range 1.8-12). With a median follow up of 6 months (range 1-34), the estimated 12 months PFS and OS were 27% and 30.5%, respectively. Grade 3-4 thrombocytopenia and neutropenia were the most common toxicities (in 29 (83%) and 12 (34%) patients, respectively. Conclusions The results of this study indicate that Panobinostat might be remarkably active in some patients with R/R DLBCL, showing durable CR

Multi-phase electric drives for mobility

Multi-phase electrical drives are potential candidates for the employment in innovative electric vehicle powertrains, in response to the request for high efficiency and reliability of this type of application. In addition to the multi-phase technology, in the last decades also, multilevel technology has been developed. These two technologies are somewhat complementary since both allow increasing the power rating of the system without increasing the current and voltage ratings of the single power switches of the inverter. In this thesis, some different topics concerning the inverter, the motor and the fault diagnosis of an electric vehicle powertrain are addressed. In particular, the attention is focused on multi-phase and multilevel technologies and their potential advantages with respect to traditional technologies. First of all, the mathematical models of two multi-phase machines, a five-phase induction machine and an asymmetrical six-phase permanent magnet synchronous machines are developed using the Vector Space Decomposition approach. Then, a new modulation technique for multi-phase multilevel T-type inverters, which solves the voltage balancing problem of the DC-link capacitors, ensuring flexible management of the capacitor voltages, is developed. The technique is based on the proper selection of the zero-sequence component of the modulating signals. Subsequently, a diagnostic technique for detecting the state of health of the rotor magnets in a six-phase permanent magnet synchronous machine is established. The technique is based on analysing the electromotive force induced in the stator windings by the rotor magnets. Furthermore, an innovative algorithm able to extend the linear modulation region for five-phase inverters, taking advantage of the multiple degrees of freedom available in multi-phase systems is presented. Finally, the mathematical model of an eighteen-phase squirrel cage induction motor is defined. This activity aims to develop a motor drive able to change the number of poles of the machine during the machine operation.