38 resultados para 2447: modelling and forecasting
em Reposit
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Scintillations are rapid fluctuations in the phase and amplitude of transionospheric radio signals which are caused by small-scale plasma density irregularities in the ionosphere. In the case of the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers, scintillation can cause cycle slips, degrade the positioning accuracy and, when severe enough, can even lead to a complete loss of signal lock. Thus, the required levels of availability, accuracy, integrity and reliability for the GNSS applications may not be met during scintillation occurrence; this poses a major threat to a large number of modern-day GNSS-based applications. The whole of Latin America, Brazil in particular, is located in one of the regions most affected by scintillations. These effects will be exacerbated during solar maxima, the next predicted for 2013. This paper presents initial results from a research work aimed to tackle ionospheric scintillation effects for GNSS users in Latin America. This research is a part of the CIGALA (Concept for Ionospheric Scintillation Mitigation for Professional GNSS in Latin America) project, co-funded by the EC Seventh Framework Program and supervised by the GNSS Supervisory Authority (GSA), which aims to develop and test ionospheric scintillation countermeasures to be implemented in multi-frequency, multi-constellation GNSS receivers.
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The equilibrium dynamics of native and introduced blowflies is modelled using a density-dependent model of population growth that takes into account important features of the life-history in these flies. A theoretical analysis indicates that the product of maximum fecundity and survival is the primary determinant of the dynamics. Cochliomyia macellaria, a blowfly native to the Americas and the introduced Chrysomya megacephala and Chrysomya putoria, differ in their dynamics in that the first species shows a damping oscillatory behavior leading to a one-point equilibrium, whereas in the last two species population numbers show a two-point limit cycle. Simulations showed that variation in fecundity has a marked effect on the dynamics and indicates the possibility of transitions from one-point equilibrium to bounded oscillations and aperiodic behavior. Variation in survival has much less influence on the dynamics.
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Cephalosporin C production process optimization was studied based on four experiments carried out in an agitated and aerated tank fermenter operated as a fed-batch reactor. The microorganism Cephalosporium acremonium ATCC 48272 (C-10) was cultivated in a synthetic medium containing glucose as major carbon and energy source. The additional medium contained a hydrolyzed sucrose solution as the main carbon and energy source and it was added after the glucose depletion. By manipulating the supplementary feed rate, it was possible to increase antibiotic production. A mathematical model to represent the fed-batch production process was developed. It was observed that the model was applicable under different operation conditions, showing that optimization studies can be made based on this model. (C) 1999 Elsevier B.V. Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Stable isotope analyses have helped in assessing dietary switches if the diet undergoes metabolic alteration (isotopic exchange). However, when considering the effects over time of switching from one diet to another, one can assess how quickly the new diet is incorporated into tissues via the isotopic renewal or incorporation rate, or turnover. Turnover is obtained using exponential curves that fit the original data, allowing the determination of practical order parameters such as the half-life (T) and the turnover constant (k). Researchers have found that metabolic incorporation can be fractionated. The resulting fractions, called metabolic pools, are identified using the linearization of the isotopic exchange model and its linear fit. This fractionation methodology is still not well defined. The objective of this study was to assess the behaviour of the metabolic renewal rate (turnover) in fractionated form, explain the theory, and apply it to data from the avian duodenal mucosa and albumen. We concluded that the duodenal mucosa has one metabolic pool, with a half-life of 1.23 days, and that the albumen has two metabolic pools, with half-lives of 1.89 and 6.32 days.
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This work presents and discusses the main topics involved on the design of a mobile robot system and focus on the control and navigation systems for autonomous mobile robots. Introduces the main aspects of the Robot design, which is a holistic vision about all the steps of the development process of an autonomous mobile robot; discusses the problems addressed to the conceptualization of the mobile robot physical structure and its relation to the world. Presents the dynamic and control analysis for navigation robots with kinematic and dynamic model and, for final, presents applications for a robotic platform of Automation, Simulation, Control and Supervision of Mobile Robots Navigation, with studies of dynamic and kinematic modelling, control algorithms, mechanisms for mapping and localization, trajectory planning and the platform simulator. © 2012 Praise Worthy Prize S.r.l. - All rights reserved.
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This work aims with an approach for cogeneration plants evaluation based on thermoeconomic functional diagram analysis. The second law of thermodynamics is used to develop a methodology to analyse cogeneration systems, based on exergoeconomics evaluation. The thermoeconomic optimisation method developed is applied to allow a better configuration of the cogeneration plant associated to a university hospital. Also ecological efficiency is evaluated. The method was efficient and contributes for thermoeconomics modelling and analysis and can be applied to any sort of thermal system, especially those with combined heat and power in thermal parity. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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This work presents analyses of the atmospheric conditions and the hindcast of the surface wave field when six extratropical cyclones formed and displaced over the South Atlantic Ocean (10degreesN, 60degreesS; 75degreesW, 15degreesE) between April and September 1999. These events caused high sea waves associated with hazardous conditions along the south and southeast coast of Brazil. The meteorological composite fields for these cyclones show a strong near-surface wind velocity (up to 14 m s(-1)) during its mature phase. The sea-state wave hindcast was obtained using a third-generation wave model forced by the 10-m above ground level wind field from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis dataset. Closer to the south and southeast Brazilian coast, the hindcast results showed significant wave heights of up to 5 m in some of the events. The wave hindcast results for the significant wave height were compared against satellite altimeter data at 6 h intervals. The statistical index showed a systematic underestimation of the significant wave height by 0.5 m. The correlation between wave hindcast and altimeter measurements was greater than 90%, showing a good phase reproduction by the wave model.
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Indirect ELISA and IFAT have been reported to be more sensitive and specific than agglutination tests. However, MAT is cheaper, easier than the others and does not need special equipment. The purpose of this study was to compare an enzyme linked immunosorbent assay using crude rhoptries of Toxoplasma gondii as coating wells (r-ELISA) with indirect fluorescence antibody test (IFAT) and modified agglutination test (MAT) to detect anti-T. gondii antibodies in sera of experimentally infected pigs. Ten mixed breed pigs between 6.5 and 7.5 weeks old were used. All pigs were negative for the presence of T. gondii antibodies by IFAT (titre < 16), r-ELISA (OD < 0.295) and MAT (titre < 16). Animals received 7 × 107 viable tachyzoites of the RH strain by intramuscular (IM) route at day 0. Serum samples were collected at days -6, 0, 7, 14, 21, 28, 35, 42, 50, and 57. IFAT detected anti-T. gondii antibodies earlier than r-ELISA and MAT. The average of antibody levels was higher at day 35 in IFAT (Log10 = 2.9) and in MAT (Log10 = 3.5), and at day 42 in r-ELISA (OD = 0.797). The antibody levels remained high through the 57th day after inoculation in MAT, and there was a decrease tendency in r-ELISA and IFAT. IFAT was used as gold standard and r-ELISA demonstrated a higher prevalence (73.3%), sensitivity (94.3%), negative predictive value (83.3%), and accuracy (95.6%) than MAT. Kappa agreements among tests were calculated, and the best results were shown by r-ELISA × IFAT (κ = 0.88, p < 0.001). Cross-reaction with Sarcocystis miescheriana was investigated in r-ELISA and OD mean was 0.163 ± 0.035 (n = 65). Additionally, none of the animals inoculated with Sarcocystis reacted positively in r-ELISA. Our results indicate that r-ELISA could be a good method for serological detection of T. gondii infection in pigs. © 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Behavioral problems in preschool children are one of the most frequent motives for seeking psychological care by parents and caregivers. Instruments are considered necessary, created from a Social Skills Training theoretical-practical perspective, which may systematically assist the identification of social skills and behavioral deficits, helping professionals in the prevention and/or reduction of behavioral problems. The purpose of this study was to test the psychometric validity and reliability of an instrument for evaluation of Socially Skilled Responses, from a teacher's perspective (QRSH-PR For this purpose, 260 preschool children were evaluated, differentiated in subgroups without and without behavioral difficulties, based on the Child Behavior Scale (Escala de Comportamento Infantil/ECI-Professor Studies were conducted for construct, discrimination, concurrent and predictive validity. The Cronbach Alpha was calculated to evaluate internal consistency. The obtained results pointed to positive indicators in reference to construct, discrimination, and predictive validity, and even for good internal consistency, indicating that the items consistently measure the construct of social skills, and differentiated children with and without behavioral problems. The questionnaire is considered to be gauged for evaluation of socially skilled responses from preschool children, and applicable in educational and clinical environments. Copyright 2009 by The Spanish Journal of Psychology.
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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This paper aims to present, using a set of guidelines, how to apply the conservative distributed simulation paradigm (CMB protocol) to develop efficient applications. Using these guidelines, even a user with little experience on distributed simulation and computer architecture can have good performance on distributed simulations using conservative synchronization protocols for parallel processes.The set of guidelines is focus on a specific application domain, the performance evaluation of computer systems, considering models with coarse granularity and few logical processes and running over two platforms: parallel (high performance communication environment) and distributed (low performance communication environment).