An objective reconstruction of the chain of contagion

North's clustering method, which is based on a much used ecological model, the nearest neighbor distance, was applied to the objective reconstruction of the chain of household-to-household transmission of variola minor (the mild form of smallpox). The discrete within-household outbreaks were considered as points which were ordered in a time sequence using a 10-40 day interval between introduction of the disease into a source household and a receptor household. The closer points in the plane were assumed to have a larger probability of being links of a chain of household-to-household spread of the disease. The five defining distances (Manhattan or city-block distance between presumptive source and receptor dwellings) were 100, 200, 300, 400 and 500 m. The subchain sets obtained with the five defining distances were compared with the subchains empirically reconstructed during the field study of the epidemic through direct investigation of personal contacts of the introductory cases with either introductory or subsequent cases from previously affected households. The criteria of fit of theoretical to empirical clusters were: (a) the number of clustered dwellings and subchains, (b) number of dwellings in a subchain and (c) position of dwellings in a subchain. The defining distance closet to the empirical findings was 200 m, which fully agrees with the travelling habits of the study population. Less close but acceptable approximations were obtained with 100, 300, 400 and 500 m. The latter two distances gave identical results, as if a clustering ceiling had been reached. It seems that North's clustering model may be used for an objective reconstruction of the chain of contagious whose links are discrete within-household outbreaks. © 1984.

Ecologia, educação ambiental, ambiente e meio ambiente: modelos conceituais e representações mentais

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

O mapa conceitual na avaliação do processo ensino-aprendizagem na Odontologia

Pós-graduação em Odontologia Preventiva e Social - FOA

Um olhar epistemológico sobre o vocábulo ambiente: algumas contribuições para pensarmos a ecologia e a educação ambiental

After the presentation of semantic and etymological considerations given to the word environment, this paper discusses how this term was appropriated and re-signified in different historical moments. Based on previous studies, it is noted that there were two appropriations of the word environment: one whose origin was in the Natural Sciences and one that would be related to the Human Sciences. At the end is argued that such appropriations can be found today, respectively, in Ecology and Environmental Education

Ecological modeling and pest population management: a possible and necessary connection in a changing world

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Stochastic dynamics in exotic and native blowflies: an analysis combining laboratory experiments and a two-patch metapopulation model

In this study we explored the stochastic population dynamics of three exotic blowfly species, Chrysomya albiceps, Chrysomya megacephala and Chrysomya putoria, and two native species, Cochliomyia macellaria and Lucilia eximia, by combining a density-dependent growth model with a two-patch metapopulation model. Stochastic fecundity, survival and migration were investigated by permitting random variations between predetermined demographic boundary values based on experimental data. Lucilia eximia and Chrysomya albiceps were the species most susceptible to the risk of local extinction. Cochliomyia macellaria, C. megacephala and C. putoria exhibited lower risks of extinction when compared to the other species. The simultaneous analysis of stochastic fecundity and survival revealed an increase in the extinction risk for all species. When stochastic fecundity, survival and migration were simulated together, the coupled populations were synchronized in the five species. These results are discussed, emphasizing biological invasion and interspecific interaction dynamics.

Sensitivity of the BEAM4 fisheries bioeconomic model to the main biological input parameters

Several runs of the BEAM4 model were carried out, combining several sets of input parameters from von Bertalanffy's growth curve (Lt = L-x[1 - e(-k(-to))]) and the natural mortality (M), with sets or parameters from the length-weight relationship (W=aL(b)). Further simulations were made with variations of +/- 20%, in the input parameters: recruitment (R), catchability coefficient (q), and the lengths at which 50 and 75% of the fishes are retained by the net (L-50%, and L-75%). The data used were those of the pair trawl fisheries for corvina Micropogonias furnieri, off southeastern Brazil. Results showed variations in the output (landed weight) ranging from - 62 to 147% associated with the diverse sets of VBGF and LWR parameters, and lower variations associated with the other input parameters tested. (C) 2001 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

A model for the plankton system of the Broa reservoir, Sao Carlos, Brazil

In this paper a model, called ELLOBO running in STELLA II, was set to describe the plankton system of the Broa reservoir (SP). The three state variables of the model are: phytoplankton, zooplankton, and the fish Astyanax fasciatus. The forcing variables are: temperature, nitrate, phosphorus and solar radiation. The model did not consider the cycling of nutrients inside the reservoir. The results show that: temperature is the principal forcing variable in the phytoplankton dynamic and in the subsequent evolution of the whole system. The zooplankton predation was described by Odum's equation, and there is a strong random component in zooplankton grazing, which was essential for the model, because zooplankton estimates have high variance. One must collect data in a short space of time (maybe daily) to better explain the zooplankton and phytoplankton variation. Validation was performed using simple statistics (arithmetic mean, standard deviation) and the results show concordance between observed and simulated values. Overhead was used to calibrate some parameters and to validate the model. The highest overhead value (5%) imply in the better accordance between estimated and;observed state variables values. We believe this approach in Broa reservoir will provide an useful tool for future research and it could be used comparatively in other continental aquatic ecosystems. (C) 2000 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Exploring community assembly through an individual-based model for trophic interactions

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Body size and flight distance in stingless bees (Hymenoptera: Meliponini): inference of flight range and possible ecological implications

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Assessing the uncertainties of model estimates of primary productivity in the tropical Pacific Ocean

Depth-integrated primary productivity (PP) estimates obtained from satellite ocean color-based models (SatPPMs) and those generated from biogeochemical ocean general circulation models (BCGCMs) represent a key resource for biogeochemical and ecological studies at global as well as regional scales. Calibration and validation of these PP models are not straightforward, however, and comparative studies show large differences between model estimates. The goal of this paper is to compare PP estimates obtained from 30 different models (21 SatPPMs and 9 BOGCMs) to a tropical Pacific PP database consisting of similar to 1000 C-14 measurements spanning more than a decade (1983-1996). Primary findings include: skill varied significantly between models, but performance was not a function of model complexity or type (i.e. SatPPM vs. BOGCM); nearly all models underestimated the observed variance of PR specifically yielding too few low PP (< 0.2 g Cm-2 d(-1)) values; more than half of the total root-mean-squared model-data differences associated with the satellite-based PP models might be accounted for by uncertainties in the input variables and/or the PP data; and the tropical Pacific database captures a broad scale shift from low biomassnormalized productivity in the 1980s to higher biomass-normalized productivity in the 1990s, which was not successfully captured by any of the models. This latter result suggests that interdecadal and global changes will be a significant challenge for both SatPPMs and BOGCMs. Finally, average root-mean-squared differences between in situ PP data on the equator at 140 degrees W and PP estimates from the satellite-based productivity models were 58% lower than analogous values computed in a previous PP model comparison 6 years ago. The success of these types of comparison exercises is illustrated by the continual modification and improvement of the participating models and the resulting increase in model skill. (C) 2008 Elsevier BY. All rights reserved.

Thermoeconomic model considering the environment impacts on thermoelectric power plants: Natural gas versus diesel

In this paper a comparative analysis of the environmental impact caused by the use of natural gas and diesel in thermoelectric power plants utilizing combined cycle is performed. The objective is to apply a thermoeconomical analysis in order to compare the two proposed fuels. In this analysis, a new methodology that incorporates the economical engineering concept to the ecological efficiency once Cardu and Baica [1, 2], which evaluates, in general terms, the environmental impacts caused by CO2, SO2, NOx and Particulate Matter (PM), adopting as reference the air quality standards in vigour is employed. The thermoeconomic model herein proposed utilizes functional diagrams that allow the minimization the Exergetic Manufacturing Cost, which represents the cost of production of electricity incorporating the environmental impact effects to study the performance of the thermoelectric power plant [3,4], It follows that it is possible to determine the environmental impact caused by thermoelectric power plants and, under the ecological standpoint, the use of natural gas as a fuel is the best option compared to the use of the diesel, presenting ecological efficiency values of 0.944 and 0.914 respectively. From the Exergoeconomic point of view of, it was found out that the EMC (Exergetic Manufacturing Cost) is better when natural gas is used as fuel compared to the diesel fuel. Copyright © 2006 by ASME.

Trait contributions to fish community assembly emerge from trophic interactions in an individual-based model

Community ecology seeks to understand and predict the characteristics of communities that can develop under different environmental conditions, but most theory has been built on analytical models that are limited in the diversity of species traits that can be considered simultaneously. We address that limitation with an individual-based model to simulate assembly of fish communities characterized by life history and trophic interactions with multiple physiological tradeoffs as constraints on species performance. Simulation experiments were carried out to evaluate the distribution of 6 life history and 4 feeding traits along gradients of resource productivity and prey accessibility. These experiments revealed that traits differ greatly in importance for species sorting along the gradients. Body growth rate emerged as a key factor distinguishing community types and defining patterns of community stability and coexistence, followed by egg size and maximum body size. Dominance by fast-growing, relatively large, and fecund species occurred more frequently in cases where functional responses were saturated (i.e. high productivity and/or prey accessibility). Such dominance was associated with large biomass fluctuations and priority effects, which prevented richness from increasing with productivity and may have limited selection on secondary traits, such as spawning strategies and relative size at maturation. Our results illustrate that the distribution of species traits and the consequences for community dynamics are intimately linked and strictly dependent on how the benefits and costs of these traits are balanced across different conditions. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.

The dimensionality of ecological networks

How many dimensions (trait-axes) are required to predict whether two species interact? This unanswered question originated with the idea of ecological niches, and yet bears relevance today for understanding what determines network structure. Here, we analyse a set of 200 ecological networks, including food webs, antagonistic and mutualistic networks, and find that the number of dimensions needed to completely explain all interactions is small (< 10), with model selection favouring less than five. Using 18 high-quality webs including several species traits, we identify which traits contribute the most to explaining network structure. We show that accounting for a few traits dramatically improves our understanding of the structure of ecological networks. Matching traits for resources and consumers, for example, fruit size and bill gape, are the most successful combinations. These results link ecologically important species attributes to large-scale community structure. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Perspectives on the use of lakes and ponds as model systems for macroecological research

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)