Why have land use change models for the Amazon failed to capture the amount of deforestation over the last decade?

Land cover change in the Neotropics represents one of the major drivers of global environmental change. Several models have been proposed to explore future trajectories of land use and cover change, particularly in the Amazon. Despite the remarkable development of these tools, model results are still surrounded by uncertainties. None of the model projections available in the literature plausibly captured the overall trajectory of land use and cover change that has been observed in the Amazon over the last decade. In this context, this study aims to review and analyze the general structure of the land use models that have most recently been used to explore land use change in the Amazon, seeking to investigate methodological factors that could explain the divergence between the observed and projected rates, paying special attention to the land demand calculations. Based on this review, the primary limitations inherent to this type of model and the extent to which these limitations can affect the consistency of the projections will also be analyzed. Finally, we discuss potential drivers that could have influenced the recent dynamic of the land use system in the Amazon and produced the unforeseen land cover change trajectory observed in this period. In a complementary way, the primary challenges of the new generation of land use models for the Amazon are synthesized. (c) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Generalized linear mixed models for the genetic evaluation of binary reproductive traits: a simulation study

The objective of this study was to evaluate the use of probit and logit link functions for the genetic evaluation of early pregnancy using simulated data. The following simulation/analysis structures were constructed: logit/logit, logit/probit, probit/logit, and probit/probit. The percentages of precocious females were 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30% and were adjusted based on a change in the mean of the latent variable. The parametric heritability (h²) was 0.40. Simulation and genetic evaluation were implemented in the R software. Heritability estimates (ĥ²) were compared with h² using the mean squared error. Pearson correlations between predicted and true breeding values and the percentage of coincidence between true and predicted ranking, considering the 10% of bulls with the highest breeding values (TOP10) were calculated. The mean ĥ² values were under- and overestimated for all percentages of precocious females when logit/probit and probit/logit models used. In addition, the mean squared errors of these models were high when compared with those obtained with the probit/probit and logit/logit models. Considering ĥ², probit/probit and logit/logit were also superior to logit/probit and probit/logit, providing values close to the parametric heritability. Logit/probit and probit/logit presented low Pearson correlations, whereas the correlations obtained with probit/probit and logit/logit ranged from moderate to high. With respect to the TOP10 bulls, logit/probit and probit/logit presented much lower percentages than probit/probit and logit/logit. The genetic parameter estimates and predictions of breeding values of the animals obtained with the logit/logit and probit/probit models were similar. In contrast, the results obtained with probit/logit and logit/probit were not satisfactory. There is need to compare the estimation and prediction ability of logit and probit link functions.

Muscle delta C-13 change in Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus): Effects of growth and carbon turnover

The contribution of growth and turnover to the muscle delta C-13 change process was investigated using mathematical models which associate delta C-13 change to time of intake of a new diet or increase in body mass. Two groups of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) were fed on diets based on C3 (sigma C-13 = - 25.64 +/- 0.06 parts per thousand) or C4 (delta C-13= -16.01 +/- 0.06 parts per thousand) photosynthetic cycle plants to standardize the muscle delta C-13. After establishing the carbon isotopic equilibrium, fish (mean mass 24.12 +/- 6.79 g) then received the other treatment diet until a new carbon isotopic equilibrium could be established, characterizing T1 (C3-C4) and T2 (C4-C3) treatments. No significant differences were observed in fish productive performance. Good fits were obtained for the models that associated the delta C-13 change to time, resulting in carbon half-life values of 23.33 days for T1 and 25.96 days for T2. Based on values found for the muscle delta C-13 change rate from growth (0.0263 day(-1) and 0.0254 day(-1)) and turnover (0.0034 day(-1) and 0.0013 day(-1)), our results indicate that most of the delta C-13 change could be attributed to growth. The application of model that associated the delta C-13 change to body mass increase seems to produce results with no apparent biological explanation. The delta C-13 change rate could directly reflect the daily ration and growth rate, and consequently the isotopic change rates of carbon and other tissue elements can be properly used to assess different factors that may interfere in nutrient utilization and growth. (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Are large-scale distributional shifts of the blue-winged macaw (Primolius maracana) related to climate change?

Aim To evaluate whether observed geographical shifts in the distribution of the blue-winged macaw (Primolius maracana) are related to ongoing processes of global climate change. This species is vulnerable to extinction and has shown striking range retractions in recent decades, withdrawing broadly from southern portions of its historical distribution. Its range reduction has generally been attributed to the effects of habitat loss; however, as this species has also disappeared from large forested areas, consideration of other factors that may act in concert is merited.Location Historical distribution of the blue-winged macaw in Brazil, eastern Paraguay and northern Argentina.Methods We used a correlative approach to test a hypothesis of causation of observed shifts by reduction of habitable areas mediated by climate change. We developed models of the ecological niche requirements of the blue-winged macaw, based on point-occurrence data and climate scenarios for pre-1950 and post-1950 periods, and tested model predictivity for anticipating geographical distributions within time periods. Then we projected each model to the other time period and compared distributions predicted under both climate scenarios to assess shifts of habitable areas across decades and to evaluate an explanation for observed range retractions.Results Differences between predicted distributions of the blue-winged macaw over the twentieth century were, in general, minor and no change in suitability of landscapes was predicted across large areas of the species' original range in different time periods. No tendency towards range retraction in the south was predicted, rather conditions in the southern part of the species' range tended to show improvement for the species.Main conclusions Our test permitted elimination of climate change as a likely explanation for the observed shifts in the distribution of the blue-winged macaw, and points rather to other causal explanations (e.g. changing regional land use, emerging diseases).

Conserved currents in gravitational models with quasi-invariant Lagrangians: Application to teleparallel gravity

Conservation laws in gravitational theories with diffeomorphism and local Lorentz symmetry are studied. Main attention is paid to the construction of conserved currents and charges associated with an arbitrary vector field that generates a diffeomorphism on the spacetime. We further generalize previous results for the case of gravitational models described by quasi-invariant Lagrangians, that is, Lagrangians that change by a total derivative under the action of the local Lorentz group. The general formalism is then applied to the teleparallel models, for which the energy and the angular momentum of a Kerr black hole are calculated. The subsequent analysis of the results obtained demonstrates the importance of the choice of the frame.

An ab initio study of oxygen vacancies and doping process of Nb and Cr atoms on TiO2 (110) surface models

We theoretically investigated how the formation of oxygen vacancies and the addition of niobium and chromium atoms as dopants modify the varistor properties of TiO2. The calculations were carried out at the HF level using a contracted basis set, developed by Huzinaga et al.. to represent the atomic centers on the (110) surface for the large (TiO2)(15) cluster model. The change of the values for the net atomic charges and band gap after oxygen vacancy formation and the presence of dopants in the lattice are analyzed and discussed. It is shown that the formation of oxygen vacancies decreases the band gap while an opposite effect is found when dopants are located in the reduced surface. The theoretical results are compared with available experimental data. A plausible explanation of the varistor behavior of this system is proposed. (C) 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Preliminary studies of Mammea americana L. (Guttiferae) bark/latex extract point to an effective antiulcer effect on gastric ulcer models in mice

Plant extracts are some of the most attractive sources of new drugs and have shown promising results for the treatment of gastric ulcers. Several folk medicinal plants and herbs have been used to treat gastrointestinal disorders, including gastric ulcers. Mammea americana L. (Guttiferae) fruit is very common in the diet of the population of northern South America. Our research interest in this plant arose because of its potential medicinal value as a tonic and against stomachache, as used in folk medicine. In this paper we evaluated three different extracts (ethanolic/EtOH, methanolic/MeOH and dichloromethane/DCM) obtained from M. americana L., for their ability to protect the gastric mucosa against injuries caused by necrotizing agents (0.3 M HCI/60% EtOH), hypothermic restraint stress, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAID, indomethacin) and pylorus ligation. In the HCI/EtOH-induced gastriculcer model, EtOH and DCM extracts demonstrated significant inhibition of the ulcerative lesion index by 54% (12.0 +/- 2.6 mm) and 86% (3.7 +/- 1.8 mm), respectively, in relation to the control value (26.0 +/- 1.4 mm) (p < 0.000 1). In the NSAID/cholinomimetic-induced lesion model, both EtOH and DCM extracts showed antiulcerogenic effects with significant reduction in the damage to these gastric lesions of 36% (8.3 +/- 2.0 mm) and 42% (7.5 +/- 1.4 mm), respectively, as compared to the control group (13.0 +/- 0.9 mm) (p < 0.0001). In the gastric ulcer induced by hypothermic-restraint stress, both extracts also showed significant activity, and inhibited the gastric lesion index by 58% and 75%, respectively. The EtOH and DCM extracts also changed gastric juice parameters as well as those of cimetidine, decreased gastric acid secretion significantly (p < 0.0001), increased pH values and promoted reduced acid output (p < 0.0001). In all gastric-ulcer-induced models, MeOH extract did not show any significant antiulcerogenic activity, nor did it change gastric-juice parameters (p > 0.05). The results suggest that EtOH and DCM extracts obtained from M. americana possess excellent antisecretory and/or gastrotective effect in all gastric ulcer models. These results suggest that the antiulcerogenic compound(s) present in M. americana may be clustered in the apolar fraction, which will be investigated by our group for the probable mechanisms of action. (c) 2004 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Effects of erythrinian alkaloids isolated from Erythrina mulungu (Papilionaceae) in mice submitted to animal models of anxiety

The effects of acute oral administration of erythrinian alkaloids, Le. (+)-alpha-hydroxy-erysotrine, erythravine and (+)-11 alpha-hydroxy-erythravine isolated from the flowers of Erythrina mulungu were investigated in two animal models of anxiety in mice-the light-dark transition model (LDTM) and the elevated plus-maze (EPM). In the LDTM, erythravine (3, 10 mg/kg) and (+)-11 alpha-hydroxy-erythravine (10mg/kg) increased the time spent by the animals in the illuminated compartment and (+)-11 alpha-hydroxy-erythravine (3 mg/kg) increased the number of transitions between compartments of the LDTM, suggesting an anxiolytic-like effect of these erythrinian alkaloids. Nevertheless, the third alkaloid studied, (+)-alpha-hydroxy-erysotrine, did not change any behavioral response with the range of doses used (3-10 mg/kg). Since the oral administration of the crude extract of E. mulungu (EM) (100-400 mg/kg) did not modify the conventional measures of anxiety in the EPM, this animal model was not chosen to evaluate the anxiolytic properties of the isolated alkaloids. These results suggest that the alkaloids erythravine and (+)-11 alpha-hydroxy-erythravine are responsible for the anxiolytic effects of the crude extract of E. mulungu.

Second quantization approach to composite hadron interactions in quark models

Starting from the Fock space representation of hadron bound states in a quark model, a change of representation is implemented by a unitary transformation such that the composite hadrons are redescribed by elementary-particle field operators. Application of the unitary transformation to the microscopic quark Hamiltonian gives rise to effective hadron-hadron, hadron-quark, and quark-quark Hamiltonians. An effective baryon Hamiltonian is derived using a simple quark model. The baryon Hamiltonian is free of the post-prior discrepancy which usually plagues composite-particle effective interactions.

QCD phase transitions from relativistic hadron models

The models of translationally invariant infinite nuclear matter in the relativistic mean field models are very interesting and simple, since the nucleon can connect only to a constant vector and scalar meson field. Can one connect these to the complicated phase transitions of QCD? For an affirmative answer to this question, one must consider models where the coupling contstants to the scalar and vector fields depend on density in a nonlinear way, since as such the models are not explicitly chirally invariant. Once this is ensured, indeed one can derive a quark condensate indirectly from the energy density of nuclear matter which goes to zero at large density and temperature. The change to zero condensate indicates a smooth phase transition. © Springer-Verlag 1996.

Quantum topology change and large-N gauge theories

We study a model for dynamical localization of topology using ideas from non-commutative geometry and topology in quantum mechanics. We consider a collection X of N one-dimensional manifolds and the corresponding set of boundary conditions (self-adjoint extensions) of the Dirac operator D. The set of boundary conditions encodes the topology and is parameterized by unitary matrices g. A particular geometry is described by a spectral triple x(g) = (A X, script H sign X, D(g)). We define a partition function for the sum over all g. In this model topology fluctuates but the dimension is kept fixed. We use the spectral principle to obtain an action for the set of boundary conditions. Together with invariance principles the procedure fixes the partition function for fluctuating topologies. The model has one free-parameter β and it is equivalent to a one plaquette gauge theory. We argue that topology becomes localized at β = ∞ for any value of N. Moreover, the system undergoes a third-order phase transition at β = 1 for large-N. We give a topological interpretation of the phase transition by looking how it affects the topology. © SISSA/ISAS 2004.

Automatic code generation for microcontrollers from place-transition Petri net models

This paper describes a program for the automatic generation of code for Intel's 8051 microcontroller. The code is generated from a place-transition Petri net specification. Our goal is to minimize programming time. The code generated by our program has been observed to exactly match the net model. It has also been observed that no change is needed to be made to the generated code for its compilation to the target architecture. © 2011 IFAC.

Impact of climate change on the phoma leaf spot of coffee in Brazil

The potential impact of global climate change on the spatial-temporal distribution of phoma leaf spot of coffee in Brazil was evaluated. Maps were prepared with the favorability of the climate to the occurrence of the disease in the current period and future. The future scenarios used were centered for the decades of 2010-2030, 2040-2060, and 2070-2090 (scenarios A2 and B2). These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCM's) provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Assuming the future scenarios outlined by the IPCC, a reduction will occur in the occurrence of climatic favorability of phoma leaf spot in Brazil in both future scenarios (A2 and B2). As with the temporal distribution, the period of greatest risk of phoma leaf spot will tend to diminish in future decades. These planned changes will be larger in the A2 scenario compared to the predicted scenario B2. Despite the decrease in the favorability of phoma leaf spot in the country, some regions still present a potential risk of this disease. Furthermore, the increased frequency of extreme weather was not taken in to account. These will certainly influence the magnitude of potential impacts of climate change on the phoma leaf spot in Brazil.

Cellular automata-based spatial dynamic modeling for analyzing urban land use change

This paper analyzes land use change in Rio Claro City and its surroundings, located in the southeastern state of Sao Paulo, in the period from 1988 to 1995, using air-borne digital imagery and a cellular automata model. The simulation experiment was carried out in the Dinamica EGO platform and the results revealed a constrained urban sprawl, resulting from both the densification of residential areas implemented in previous years and the economic recession that led to an internal financial crisis in Brazil during the early 1990s. The simulation outputs were validated using a multi-resolution procedure based on a fuzzy similarity index and showed a satisfactory fitness in relation to the historical reference data. © 2013 IEEE.

Positioning and number of nutritional levels in dose-response trials to estimate the optimal-level and the adjustment of the models

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)