15 resultados para Systemic Risk

em Repositório Institucional UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista "Julio de Mesquita Filho"


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Complex non-linear interactions between banks and assets we model by two time-dependent Erdos-Renyi network models where each node, representing a bank, can invest either to a single asset (model I) or multiple assets (model II). We use a dynamical network approach to evaluate the collective financial failure -systemic risk- quantified by the fraction of active nodes. The systemic risk can be calculated over any future time period, divided into sub-periods, where within each sub-period banks may contiguously fail due to links to either i) assets or ii) other banks, controlled by two parameters, probability of internal failure p and threshold T-h ("solvency" parameter). The systemic risk decreases with the average network degree faster when all assets are equally distributed across banks than if assets are randomly distributed. The more inactive banks each bank can sustain (smaller T-h), the smaller the systemic risk -for some Th values in I we report a discontinuity in systemic risk. When contiguous spreading becomes stochastic ii) controlled by probability p(2) -a condition for the bank to be solvent (active) is stochasticthe- systemic risk decreases with decreasing p(2). We analyse the asset allocation for the U.S. banks. Copyright (C) EPLA, 2014

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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We evaluated the prevalence and clinical associations of amenorrhea in 298 female juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus (JSLE) patients (ACR criteria) followed in 12 Brazilian Paediatric Rheumatology centres. Amenorrhea was observed in 35 patients (11.7%) with a mean duration of 7.2 +/- 3.6 months. The hormones were performed in 32/35 patients and none of them had FSH and LH levels above and estradiol below the normal range according to pubertal changes. JSLE patients with amenorrhea were younger (15.04 +/- 2.5 versus 17.8 +/- 3.1 years; P = 0.001), and had a shorter period of time between menarche and current age (3.4 +/- 2.9 versus 6.7 +/- 5.4 years; P = 0.001). Interestingly, the frequency, cumulative dose, number of pulses and duration of intravenous cyclophosphamide treatment were alike in patients with and without amenorrhea (P > 0.05). In contrast, patients with amenorrhea had significantly higher SLEDAI (P = 0.01) and SLICC/ACR-DI (P = 0.024) scores compared to those without this condition. Independent risk factors identified by multivariate analysis were higher SLEDAI (OR=1.059; CI=1.004-1.116; P=0.034) and SLICC/ACR-DI (OR=2.125; IC = 1.373-3.291; P = 0.001) scores. Our data suggest that in spite of imummosuppressive therapy, JSLE patients have an adequate ovarian follicular reserve and amenorrhea is particularly associated with disease activity and damage.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Estudo retrospectivo avaliando alterações laboratoriais hepáticas e potenciais interações medicamentosas em pacientes tratados para onicomicose. Foram avaliados 202 pacientes, sendo 82% do sexo feminino. em 273 exames de enzimas hepáticas, houve alterações em apenas 6%. Potenciais interações medicamentosas foram identificadas em 28% dos pacientes para imidazólicos e 14% para terbinafina. O risco de interações potenciais aumentou com a idade do paciente e o uso de múltiplas medicações.

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Although systemic hypertension is very common in patients with glomerulonephritis there is a dispute if this alteration is consequence of the glomerulonephritis per se or is a consequence of the renal failure secondary to the glomerular lesion. With the aim to analyze the factors associated with systemic hypertension, 196 patients with different forms of nephritis were studied. The systemic arterial pressure was measured by standard sphygmomanometer, renal function was evaluated by the determination of the serum creatinine concentration or creatinine clearance. The diagnosis of the type of glomerulonephritis was made on the basis of an examination of kidney biopsy specimens. The prevalence of arterial hypertension among patients with glomerulonephritis was 62.7%. The hypertensive patients were older (hypertensive = 30.6 ± 12.8; normotensive = 25.4 ± 1.6 years; P = 0.03). The prevalence of arterial hypertension was lower in patients with minimal glomerular lesion (12.5%), though their ages were also lower (18.1 ± 3.6 and 29.1 ± 1.03 years; P = 0.03). Arterial hypertension did not correlate with the serum levels of creatinine and albumin; creatinine clearance and 24-h proteinuria. In conclusion: In the patients with glomerulonephritis, the presence of arterial hypertension was associated with a higher mean age whereas the intensity of proteinuria, the level of renal function or the type of glomerulonephritis was not different between the two groups.

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The risk for venous thromboembolism (VTE) in medical patients is high, but risk assessment is rarely performed because there is not yet a good method to identify candidates for prophylaxis. Purpose: To perform a systematic review about VTE risk factors (RFs) in hospitalized medical patients and generate recommendations (RECs) for prophylaxis that can be implemented into practice. Data sources: A multidisciplinary group of experts from 12 Brazilian Medical Societies searched MEDLINE, Cochrane, and LILACS. Study selection: Two experts independently classified the evidence for each RF by its scientific quality in a standardized manner. A risk-assessment algorithm was created based on the results of the review. Data synthesis: Several VTE RFs have enough evidence to support RECs for prophylaxis in hospitalized medical patients (eg, increasing age, heart failure, and stroke). Other factors are considered adjuncts of risk (eg, varices, obesity, and infections). According to the algorithm, hospitalized medical patients ≥40 years-old with decreased mobility, and ≥1 RFs should receive chemoprophylaxis with heparin, provided they don't have contraindications. High prophylactic doses of unfractionated heparin or low-molecular-weight-heparin must be administered and maintained for 6-14 days. Conclusions: A multidisciplinary group generated evidence-based RECs and an easy-to-use algorithm to facilitate VTE prophylaxis in medical patients. © 2007 Rocha et al, publisher and licensee Dove Medical Press Ltd.

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Pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE) ranges from incidental, clinically unimportant thromboembolism to massive embolism with sudden death. Its treatment is well established in two groups of patients: heparin for those with normal systemic blood pressure without right ventricular dysfunction (RVD) and thrombolysis for those with RVD and circulatory shock. In an intermediate group of patients with systemic blood pressure stability combined with RVD, which is usually associated with worse outcome, the treatment is controversial. There are authors who strongly suggest thrombolysis while others contraindicate this procedure and recommend anticoagulation with heparin. This is a narrative review that includes clinical trials comparing thrombolysis and heparin for the treatment of PTE patients with systemic blood pressure stability and RVD published since 1973. The results show that there are only four trials on this subject with less than 500 patients. Many PTE patients with systemic blood pressure stability and RVD might benefit from thrombolysis but, on the other hand, the risk for hemorrhagic events may be increased. Large randomized clinical trials are required to clarify this. © 2008 Bentham Science Publishers Ltd.

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Some modifying factors may determine the risk of brain tumors. Until now, it could not be attempted to identify people at risk and also to improve significantly disease progression. Current therapy consists of surgical resection, followed by radiation therapy and chemotherapy. Despite of these treatments, the prognosis for patients is poor. In this review, we highlight general aspects concerning genetic alterations in brain tumors, namely astrocytomas, glioblastomas, oligodendrogliomas, medulloblastomas and ependymomas. The influence of these genetic alterations in patients' prognosis is discussed. Mutagen sensivity is associated with cancer risk. The convincing studies that linked DNA damages and DNA repair alterations with brain tumors are also described. Another important modifying factor is immunity. General immune response against cancer, tumor microenvironment and immune response, mechanisms of tumor escape, CNS tumor immunology, immune defects that impair anti-tumor systemic immunity in brain tumor patients and local immunosuppressive factors within CNS are also reviewed. New hope to treatment perspectives, as dendritic-cell-based vaccines is summarized too. Concluding, it seems well established that there is association between brain tumor risk and mutagen sensivity, which is highly heritable. Primary brain tumors cause depression in systemic host immunity; local immunosuppressive factors and immunological characteristics of tumor cells may explain the poor prognosis and DNA damages responses can alert immune system. However, it is necessary to clarify if individuals with both constitutional defects in immune functions and genetic instability have higher risk of developing brain tumors. Cytogenetic prospective studies and gene copy number variations analysis also must be performed in peripheral lymphocytes from brain tumor patients. © 2011 Bentham Science Publishers Ltd.

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Low-grade chronic systemic inflammation is often associated with chronic non-communicable diseases, and its most frequently used marker, the C-reactive protein (CRP), has become an identifier of such diseases as well as an independent predictor for cardiovascular disorders and mortality. CRP is produced in response to pro-inflammatory signaling and to individual and behavioral factors, leading to pathological states. The aim of this study was to rank the predicting factors of high CRP concentrations in free-living adults from a community-based sample. We evaluated 522 adults (40-84 years old; 381 women) for anthropometric characteristics, dietary intake, clinical and physical tests, and blood analysis. Subjects were assigned to groups, according to CRP concentrations, as normal CRP (G1;<3.0 mg/L; n = 269), high CRP (G2; 3.0-6.0 mg/L; n = 139), and very high CRP (G3; >6.0 mg/dL; n = 116). Statistical comparison between groups used one-way ANOVA or Kruskal-Wallis tests, and prediction of altered values in increasing CRP was evaluated by proportional hazard models (odds ratio). CRP distribution was influenced by gender, body mass index, body and abdominal fatness, blood leukocytes, and neutrophil counts. The higher CRP group was discriminated by the above variables in addition to lower VO2max, serum metabolic syndrome components (triglycerides, glucose, and HDL cholesterol), higher insulin, homeostasis assessment of insulin resistance, uric acid, gamma-GT, and homocysteine. After adjustments, only fatness, blood leukocytes, and hyperglycemia remained as independent predictors for increased serum CRP concentrations. Intervention procedures to treat low-grade chronic inflammation in overweight women would mainly focus on restoring muscle mass and functions in addition to an antioxidant-rich diet. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

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Background: The prevalence of systemic lupus erythematous (SLE) patients requiring renal replacement therapy (RRT) is increasing but data on clinical outcomes are scarce. Interestingly, data on technique failure and peritoneal-dialysis (PD)-related infections are rarer, despite SLE patients being considered at high risk for infections. The aim of our study is to compare clinical outcomes of SLE patients on PD in a large PD cohort. Methods: We conducted a nationwide prospective observational study from the BRAZPD II cohort. For this study we identified all patients on PD for greater than 90 days. Within that subset, all those with SLE as primary renal disease were matched with PD patients without SLE for comparison of clinical outcomes, namely: patient mortality, technique survival and time to first peritonitis, then were analyzed taking into account the presence of competing risks. Results: Out of a total of 9907 patients, we identified 102 SLE patients incident in PD and with more than 90 days on PD. After matching the groups consisted of 92 patients with SLE and 340 matched controls. Mean age was 46.9 +/- 16.8 years, 77.3% were females and 58.1% were Caucasians. After adjustments SLE sub-hazard distribution ratio for mortality was 1.06 (CI 95% 0.55-2.05), for technique failure was 1.01 (CI 95% 0.54-1.91) and for time to first peritonitis episode was 1.40 (CI 95% 0.92-2.11). The probability for occurrence of competing risks in all three outcomes was similar between groups. Conclusion: PD therapy was shown to be a safe and equally successful therapy for SLE patients compared to matched non-SLE patients.