Choosing between Cox proportional hazards and logistic models for interval-censored data via bootstrap

This work develops a new methodology in order to discriminate models for interval-censored data based on bootstrap residual simulation by observing the deviance difference from one model in relation to another, according to Hinde (1992). Generally, this sort of data can generate a large number of tied observations and, in this case, survival time can be regarded as discrete. Therefore, the Cox proportional hazards model for grouped data (Prentice & Gloeckler, 1978) and the logistic model (Lawless, 1982) can befitted by means of generalized linear models. Whitehead (1989) considered censoring to be an indicative variable with a binomial distribution and fitted the Cox proportional hazards model using complementary log-log as a link function. In addition, a logistic model can be fitted using logit as a link function. The proposed methodology arises as an alternative to the score tests developed by Colosimo et al. (2000), where such models can be obtained for discrete binary data as particular cases from the Aranda-Ordaz distribution asymmetric family. These tests are thus developed with a basis on link functions to generate such a fit. The example that motivates this study was the dataset from an experiment carried out on a flax cultivar planted on four substrata susceptible to the pathogen Fusarium oxysoprum. The response variable, which is the time until blighting, was observed in intervals during 52 days. The results were compared with the model fit and the AIC values.

Tests of proportional hazards and proportional odds models for grouped survival data

In this paper, we derive score test statistics to discriminate between proportional hazards and proportional odds models for grouped survival data. These models are embedded within a power family transformation in order to obtain the score tests. In simple cases, some small-sample results are obtained for the score statistics using Monte Carlo simulations. Score statistics have distributions well approximated by the chi-squared distribution. Real examples illustrate the proposed tests.

A Generalized Log-Normal Model for Grouped Survival Data

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

A mixed-integer LP model for the reconfiguration of radial electric distribution systems considering distributed generation

The problem of reconfiguration of distribution systems considering the presence of distributed generation is modeled as a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) problem in this paper. The demands of the electric distribution system are modeled through linear approximations in terms of real and imaginary parts of the voltage, taking into account typical operating conditions of the electric distribution system. The use of an MILP formulation has the following benefits: (a) a robust mathematical model that is equivalent to the mixed-integer non-linear programming model; (b) an efficient computational behavior with exiting MILP solvers; and (c) guarantees convergence to optimality using classical optimization techniques. Results from one test system and two real systems show the excellent performance of the proposed methodology compared with conventional methods. © 2012 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A mixed-integer LP model for the optimal allocation of voltage regulators and capacitors in radial distribution systems

This paper presents a mixed-integer linear programming model to solve the problem of allocating voltage regulators and fixed or switched capacitors (VRCs) in radial distribution systems. The use of a mixed-integer linear model guarantees convergence to optimality using existing optimization software. In the proposed model, the steady-state operation of the radial distribution system is modeled through linear expressions. The results of one test system and one real distribution system are presented in order to show the accuracy as well as the efficiency of the proposed solution technique. An heuristic to obtain the Pareto front for the multiobjective VRCs allocation problem is also presented. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characterization of the variable cow's age at last calving as a measurement of longevity by using the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the Cox model

In most studies on beef cattle longevity, only the cows reaching a given number of calvings by a specific age are considered in the analyses. With the aim of evaluating all cows with productive life in herds, taking into consideration the different forms of management on each farm, it was proposed to measure cow longevity from age at last calving (ALC), that is, the most recent calving registered in the files. The objective was to characterize this trait in order to study the longevity of Nellore cattle, using the Kaplan-Meier estimators and the Cox model. The covariables and class effects considered in the models were age at first calving (AFC), year and season of birth of the cow and farm. The variable studied (ALC) was classified as presenting complete information (uncensored = 1) or incomplete information (censored = 0), using the criterion of the difference between the date of each cow's last calving and the date of the latest calving at each farm. If this difference was >36 months, the cow was considered to have failed. If not, this cow was censored, thus indicating that future calving remained possible for this cow. The records of 11 791 animals from 22 farms within the Nellore Breed Genetic Improvement Program ('Nellore Brazil') were used. In the estimation process using the Kaplan-Meier model, the variable of AFC was classified into three age groups. In individual analyses, the log-rank test and the Wilcoxon test in the Kaplan-Meier model showed that all covariables and class effects had significant effects (P < 0.05) on ALC. In the analysis considering all covariables and class effects, using the Wald test in the Cox model, only the season of birth of the cow was not significant for ALC (P > 0.05). This analysis indicated that each month added to AFC diminished the risk of the cow's failure in the herd by 2%. Nonetheless, this does not imply that animals with younger AFC had less profitability. Cows with greater numbers of calvings were more precocious than those with fewer calvings. Copyright © The Animal Consortium 2012.

Dynamical properties for a mixed Fermi accelerator model

The behavior of the decay of velocity in a semi-dissipative one-dimensional Fermi accelerator model is considered. Two different kinds of dissipative forces were considered: (i) F-v and; (ii) F-v2. We prove the decay of velocity is linear for (i) and exponential for (ii). During the decay, the particles move along specific corridors which are constructed by the borders of the stable manifolds of saddle points. These corridors organize themselves in a very complicated way in the phase space leading the basin of attraction of the sinks to be seemingly of fractal type. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mixed-integer convex model for VAr expansion planning

This paper presents a mixed-integer convex-optimization-based approach for optimum investment reactive power sources in transmission systems. Unlike some convex-optimization techniques for the reactive power planning solution, in the proposed approach the taps settings of under-load tap-changing of transformers are modeled as a mixed-integer linear set equations. Are also considered the continuous and discrete variables for the existing and new capacitive and reactive power sources. The problem is solved for three significant demand scenarios (low demand, average demand and peak demand). Numerical results are presented for the CIGRE-32 electric power system.

Desigualdade da sobrevivência de trabalhadores de Botucatu, São Paulo, Brasil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Modeling grouped survival data with time-dependent covariates

In this article, proportional hazards and logistic models for grouped survival data were extended to incorporate time-dependent covariates. The extension was motivated by a forestry experiment designed to compare five different water stresses in Eucalyptus grandis seedlings. The response was the seedling lifetime. The data set was grouped since there were just three occasions in which the seedlings was visited by the researcher. In each of these occasions also the shoot height was measured and therefore it is a time-dependent covariate. Both extended models were used in this example, and the results were very similar.

Likelihood approximations and discrete models for tied survival data

Ties among event times are often recorded in survival studies. For example, in a two week laboratory study where event times are measured in days, ties are very likely to occur. The proportional hazards model might be used in this setting using an approximated partial likelihood function. This approximation works well when the number of ties is small. on the other hand, discrete regression models are suggested when the data are heavily tied. However, in many situations it is not clear which approach should be used in practice. In this work, empirical guidelines based on Monte Carlo simulations are provided. These recommendations are based on a measure of the amount of tied data present and the mean square error. An example illustrates the proposed criterion.

Anemia at one year is an independent risk factor of graft survival

Background Post-transplant anemia is multifactorial and highly prevalent. Some studies have associated anemia with mortality and graft failure. The purpose of this study was to assess whether the presence of anemia at 1 year is an independent risk factor of mortality and graft survival. Methods All patients transplanted at a single center who survived at least 1 year after transplantation and showed no graft loss (n = 214) were included. Demographic and clinical data were collected at baseline and at 1 year. Patients were divided into two groups (anemic and nonanemic) based on the presence of anemia (hemoglobin<130 g/l in men and 120 g/l in women). Results Baseline characteristics such as age, gender, type of donor, CKD etiology, rejection, andmismatches were similar in both groups. Creatinine clearance was similar in both anemic and nonanemic groups (69.32 ± 29.8 × 75.69 ± 30.5 ml/mim; P = 0.17). A Kaplan- Meier plot showed significantly poorer death-censored graft survival in the anemic group, P = 0.003. Multivariate analysis revealed that anemic patients had a hazard ratio for the graft loss of 3.85 (95% CI: 1.49-9.96; P = 0.005). Conclusions In this study, anemia at 1 year was independently associated with death-censored graft survival and anemic patients were 3.8-fold more likely to lose the graft. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media, B.V.

Could albumin level explain the higher mortality in hemodialysis patients with pulmonary hypertension?

Background: The pathogenesis of pulmonary hypertension (PH) in hemodialysis is still unclear. The aim of thisstudy was to identify the risk factors associated with the presence of PH in chronic hemodialysis patients and toverify whether these factors might explain the highest mortality among them.Methods: We conducted a retrospective study of hemodialysis patients who started treatment from August 2001to October 2007 and were followed up until April 2011 in a Brazilian referral medical school. According to theresults of echocardiography examination, patients were allocated in two groups: those with PH and those withoutPH. Clinical parameters, site and type of vascular access, bioimpedance, and laboratorial findings were comparedbetween the groups and a logistic regression model was elaborated. Actuarial survival curves were constructed andhazard risk to death was evaluated by Cox regression analysis.Results: PH > 35 mmHg was found in 23 (30.6%) of the 75 patients studied. The groups differed in extracellularwater, ventricular thickness, left atrium diameter, and ventricular filling. In a univariate analysis, extracellular waterwas associated with PH (relative risk = 1.194; 95% CI of 1.006 1.416; p = 0.042); nevertheless, in a multiple model,only left atrium enlargement was independently associated with PH (relative risk =1.172; 95% CI of 1.010 1.359;p = 0.036). PH (hazard risk = 3.008; 95% CI of 1.285 7.043; p = 0.011) and age (hazard risk of 1.034 per year of age;95% CI of 1.000 7.068; p = 0.047) were significantly associated with mortality in a multiple Cox regression analysis.However, when albumin was taken in account the only statistically significant association was between albuminlevel and mortality (hazard risk = 0.342 per g/dL; 95% CI of 0.119 0.984; p = 0.047) while the presence of PH lost itsstatistical significance (p = 0.184). Mortality was higher in patients with PH (47.8% vs 25%) who also had astatistically worse survival after the sixth year of follow up.Conclusions: PH in hemodialysis patients is associated with parameters of volume overload that sheds light on itspathophysiology. Mortality is higher in hemodialysis patients with PH and the low albumin level can explain thisassociation.© 2012 Greenfield et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Three-year follow-up of Interleukin 6 and C-reactive protein in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Background: Past studies have shown that mean values of Interleukin-6 (IL-6) and C-reactive protein (CRP) do not change significantly in COPD patients over a one-year period. However, longer period follow-up studies are still lacking. Thus, the aim of this study is to evaluate plasma CRP and IL-6 concentration over three years in COPD patients and to test the association between these inflammatory mediators and disease outcome markers. Methods: A cohort of 77 outpatients with stable COPD was evaluated at baseline, and 53 (mean FEV1, 56% predicted) were included in the prospective study. We evaluated Interleukin-6 (IL-6), C-reactive protein (CRP), six-minute walking distance (6MWD), and body mass index (BMI) at baseline and after three years. Plasma concentration of IL-6 was measured by high sensitivity ELISA, and CRP was obtained by high sensitivity particle-enhanced immunonephelometry. Results: IL-6 increased significantly after 3 years compared to baseline measurements [0.8 (0.5-1.3) vs 2.4 (1.3-4.4) pg/ml; p < 0.001] and was associated with worse 6MWD performance. In the Cox regression, increased IL-6 at baseline was associated with mortality [Hazard Ratio (95% CI) = 2.68 (0.13, 1.84); p = 0.02]. CRP mean values did not change [5 (1.6-7.9) vs 4.7 (1.7-10) pg/L; p = 0.84], although eleven patients (21%) presented with changes >3 mg/L in CRP after 3 years. Conclusions: The systemic inflammatory process, evaluated by IL-6, seems to be persistent, progressive and associated with mortality and worse physical performance in COPD patients. Trial registration: No.:NCT00605540. © 2013 Ferrari et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Avaliação da longevidade de vacas da raça Nelore por diferentes critérios utilizando análise de sobrevivência

Pós-graduação em Genética e Melhoramento Animal - FCAV