Choosing between Cox proportional hazards and logistic models for interval-censored data via bootstrap

This work develops a new methodology in order to discriminate models for interval-censored data based on bootstrap residual simulation by observing the deviance difference from one model in relation to another, according to Hinde (1992). Generally, this sort of data can generate a large number of tied observations and, in this case, survival time can be regarded as discrete. Therefore, the Cox proportional hazards model for grouped data (Prentice & Gloeckler, 1978) and the logistic model (Lawless, 1982) can befitted by means of generalized linear models. Whitehead (1989) considered censoring to be an indicative variable with a binomial distribution and fitted the Cox proportional hazards model using complementary log-log as a link function. In addition, a logistic model can be fitted using logit as a link function. The proposed methodology arises as an alternative to the score tests developed by Colosimo et al. (2000), where such models can be obtained for discrete binary data as particular cases from the Aranda-Ordaz distribution asymmetric family. These tests are thus developed with a basis on link functions to generate such a fit. The example that motivates this study was the dataset from an experiment carried out on a flax cultivar planted on four substrata susceptible to the pathogen Fusarium oxysoprum. The response variable, which is the time until blighting, was observed in intervals during 52 days. The results were compared with the model fit and the AIC values.

Non-linear growth models for bullfrog tadpoles

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Solving the Levins' paradox in the logistic model to the population growth

We introduce a new method to improve Markov maps by means of a Bayesian approach. The method starts from an initial map model, wherefrom a likelihood function is defined which is regulated by a temperature-like parameter. Then, the new constraints are added by the use of Bayes rule in the prior distribution. We applied the method to the logistic map of population growth of a single species. We show that the population size is limited for all ranges of parameters, allowing thus to overcome difficulties in interpretation of the concept of carrying capacity known as the Levins paradox. © Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.

Use of mathematical models in the study of bodily growth in GIFT strain Nile tilapia

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Growth in weight and of some tissues in the bullfrog: fitting nonlinear models during the fattening phase

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Inflection and stability points of diphasic logistic analysis of growth

Growth functions with inflection points following a diphasic model, can be adjusted by two approaches using segmented regression or the sum of two functions. In both cases, there are two functions, one for each phase, with inflection and stability points. However, when they are summed, the result is a new function and the points of inflection and stability are different from those obtained from using each function individually. A method to determine these points in a diphasic logistics sum of functions is suggested and the results obtained from fitting the models to eucalyptus growth data showed a better fit of the logistic diphasic sum as compared with segmented regression and monophasic logistic models.

Growth curve in Santa Ines sheep

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Quais as características propostas pelo BIRADS-US que melhor diferenciam nódulos malignos dos benignos?

OBJETIVO: analisar qual das características propostas pelo BIRADS-US tem maior impacto na diferenciação das lesões benignas das malignas. MÉTODOS: estudamos as características ultra-sonográficas do BIRADS em 384 nódulos submetidos à biópsia percutânea no período de fevereiro de 2003 a dezembro de 2006. Utilizou-se, para o exame, o aparelho Logic 5, com transdutor linear multifreqüencial de 7,5-12 MHz. A análise ultra-sonográfica do nódulo foi baseada no BIRADS-US levando em conta: forma, orientação, margem, limites da lesão, ecogenicidade, características acústicas posteriores, o tecido circunjacente e a presença de calcificações. Estes dados foram submetidos à análise estatística com modelo de regressão logística. Para o estudo de associação entre estas variáveis utilizamos o teste do c² e também calculamos a sensibilidade e a especificidade das variáveis tecido ao redor, calcificações, efeito posterior, limite da lesão e orientação. RESULTADOS: as lesões benignas representaram 42,4% e as malignas, 57,6%. A análise por regressão logística encontrou odds ratio (OR) aumentado para câncer de 7,7 vezes quando o tecido ao redor esteve alterado, de 6,2 vezes quando houve presença das microcalcificações no interior das lesões, de 1,9 quando o efeito acústico foi sombra, de 25,0 vezes quando houve o halo ecogênico e de 7,1 vezes quando a orientação foi não paralela. CONCLUSÕES: dentre as características estudadas, o limite da lesão, representado pela presença ou não do halo ecogênico, é o mais importante diferenciador das massas benignas das malignas.

Modeling grouped survival data with time-dependent covariates

In this article, proportional hazards and logistic models for grouped survival data were extended to incorporate time-dependent covariates. The extension was motivated by a forestry experiment designed to compare five different water stresses in Eucalyptus grandis seedlings. The response was the seedling lifetime. The data set was grouped since there were just three occasions in which the seedlings was visited by the researcher. In each of these occasions also the shoot height was measured and therefore it is a time-dependent covariate. Both extended models were used in this example, and the results were very similar.

Popcorn (Zea mays L. var. everta) yield and yield components as influenced by the timing of broadcast flaming

Farmers are interested in producing popcorn under organic production systems and propane flaming could be a significant component of an integrated weed management program. The objective of this study was to collect baseline information on popcorn tolerance to broadcast flaming as influenced by propane dose and crop growth stage at the time of flaming. Field experiments were conducted at the Haskell Agricultural Laboratory of the University of Nebraska, Concord, NE in 2008 and 2009 using five propane doses (0, 13, 24, 44 and 85 kg ha(-1)) applied at the 2-leaf, 5-leaf and 7-leaf growth stages. Propane was applied using a custom-built research flamer driven at a constant speed of 6.4 km h(-1). Crop response to propane dose was described by log-logistic models on the basis of visual estimates of crop injury, yield components (plants m(-2), ears plant(-1), kernels cob(-1) and 100-kernel weight) and grain yield. Popcorn response to flaming was influenced by the crop growth stage and propane dose. Based on various parameters evaluated, popcorn flamed at the 5-leaf showed the highest tolerance while the 2-leaf was the most susceptible stage. The maximum yield reductions were 45%, 9% and 16% for the 2-leaf, 5-leaf and 7-leaf stages, respectively. In addition, propane doses that resulted in a 5% yield loss were 23 kg ha(-1) for the 2-leaf and 7-leaf and 30 kg ha(-1) for the 5-leaf stage. Flaming has a potential to be used effectively in organic popcorn production if properly used. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

El tabaco y las periodontopatías.

The purpose of this research, which is part of a study on periodontal disease and its risk factors among workers in Araraquara, São Paulo, Brazil, was to determine the association between smoking and its frequency, on the one hand, and the presence of periodontal cavities on the other. A sample of 528 sugar and alcohol refinery employees from Araraquara between the ages of 18 and 64 was examined in March and April of 1992 by a trained examiner who applied the Index of Periodontal Treatment Needs in the Community. Questionnaires were used to record the individuals' age, smoking habits, and the number of cigarettes smoked daily. An oral examination was also performed to assess the presence of dental plaque and to determine the bacterial colony index. Data analysis revealed a positive association between the presence of periodontal cavities and smoking. After adjusting the data for age, presence of dental plaque, and bacterial colony index, the odds ratio for having periodontal cavities increased directly with the number of cigarettes smoked. These results suggest that smoking and its frequency should be taken into account when planning programs for the primary prevention and treatment of periodontal disease.

Antenatal corticosteroid use and clinical evolution of preterm newborn infants

Objectives: To describe the use of antenatal corticosteroid and clinical evolution of preterm babies. Methods: An observational prospective cohort study was carried out. All 463 pregnant women and their 514 newborn babies with gestational age ranging from 23 to 34 weeks, born at the Brazilian Neonatal Research Network units, were evaluated from August 1 to December 31, 2001. The data were obtained through maternal interview, analysis of medical records, and follow-up of the newborn infants. Data analysis was performed with the use of chi-square, t Student, Mann-Whitney, and ANOVA tests and multiple logistic regression, with level of significance set at 5%. Results: Treatment was directly associated with the number of prenatal visits, with maternal hypertension and with the antenatal use of tocolytic agents. Babies from treated pregnant women presented better Apgar scores at the 1st and 5th minute, reduced need for intervention in the delivery room and lower SNAPPE II. They were born with higher birth weight, longer gestational age and needed less surfactant use, ventilation, and oxygenation time. After multiple logistic regression, the use of antenatal corticosteroid independently improved birth conditions, decreased ventilation time, being related to increased occurrence of neonatal sepsis. Conclusions: The use of corticosteroid was associated with better prenatal care and birth conditions, better preterm evolution but higher risk of infection. Copyright © 2004 by Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria.

Progression of liver fibrosis in blood donors infected with hepatitis C virus

Background/Aims. Chronic hepatitis by HCV is progressive towards cirrhosis, with variable rate. We evaluated the rate of fibrosis progression (RFP), risk factors associated with advanced fibrosis (F3 and F4), and estimated the evolution time to cirrhosis. Methods. We transversely selected 142 blood donors infected only with HCV, with a known route of infection, submitted to liver biopsy at admission. RFP= ratio between stage of fibrosis (METAVIR)/estimated duration of infection in years. Non-parametric tests and logistic regression analysis, with significance level of 5% were used. Results. Median RFP was 0.086 U/year (0.05 - 0.142). Ten patients had F4 and 25 had F3. Median RFP values were significantly different (p=0.001) from one age group at contamination to the others and ALT and AST levels. There were no differences in the expected evolution to cirrhosis between intermediate fibrosers (F2) and the rapid fibrosers (F3 and F4). The independent variables associated with advanced fibrosis were ALT (OR 7.2) and GGT (OR 6.4) and age at inclusion (OR 1.12). Conclusion. This study suggests that RFP is extremely variable, it is exponential with age, and mainly influenced by host characteristics, especially age at contamination and possibly ethnical group. These asymptomatic patients had high percentage of fibrosis F2, F3 and F4.

Proactive management of extreme prematurity: Disagreement between obstetricians and neonatologists

Objective: To verify, in extremely preterm infants, if disagreement between obstetricians and neonatologists regarding proactive management is associated with early death.Study Design: Prospective cohort of 484 infants with 23 0/7 to 266/7 weeks, without malformations, born from January 2006 to December 2009 in eight Brazilian hospitals. Pro-active management was defined as indication of ≥1 dose of antenatal steroid or cesarean section (obstetrician) and resuscitation at birth according to the international guidelines (neonatologist). Main outcome was neonatal death in the first 24 h of life.Result: Obstetricians and neonatologists disagreed in 115 (24%) patients: only neonatologists were proactive in 107 of them. Disagreement between professionals increased 2.39 times the chance of death in the first day (95% confidence interval 1.40 to 4.09), adjusted for center and maternal/neonatal clinical conditions.Conclusion: In infants with 23 to 26 weeks of gestation, disagreement between obstetricians and neonatologists, translated as lack of antenatal steroids and/or vaginal delivery, despite resuscitation procedures, increases the odds of death in the first day. © 2012 Nature America, Inc.

Brazilian dental students' intentions and motivations towards their professional career

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)