Risk/investment-driven transmission expansion planning with multiple scenarios

This study presents a new methodology based on risk/investment to solve transmission network expansion planning (TNEP) problem with multiple future scenarios. Three mathematical models related to TNEP problems considering multiple future generation and load scenarios are also presented. These models will provide planners with a meaningful risk assessment that enable them to determine the necessary funding for transmission lines at a permissible risk level. The results using test and real systems show that the proposed method presents better solutions compared with scenario analysis method. ©The Institution of Engineering and Technology 2013.

Análise do risco de ocorrência da monilíase em cacaueiro no Brasil face às mudanças climáticas globais

The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence and the impacts of climate change on this disease in the coming decades, should this pathogen be introduced in Brazil. To this end, climate favorability maps were devised for the occurrence of moniliasis, both for the present and future time. The future scenarios (A2 and B2) focused on the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080. These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCMs) made available by the third assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Currently, there are large areas with favorable climate conditions for moniliasis in Brazil, especially in regions at high risk of introduction of that pathogen. Considering the global warming scenarios provided by the IPCC, the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence in Brazil will be reduced. This decrease is predicted for both future scenarios, but will occur more sharply in scenario A2. However, there will still be areas with favorable climate conditions for the development of the disease, particularly in Brazil's main producing regions. Moreover, pathogen and host alike may undergo alterations due to climate change, which will affect the extent of their impacts on this pathosystem.

Impact of climate change on the phoma leaf spot of coffee in Brazil

The potential impact of global climate change on the spatial-temporal distribution of phoma leaf spot of coffee in Brazil was evaluated. Maps were prepared with the favorability of the climate to the occurrence of the disease in the current period and future. The future scenarios used were centered for the decades of 2010-2030, 2040-2060, and 2070-2090 (scenarios A2 and B2). These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCM's) provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Assuming the future scenarios outlined by the IPCC, a reduction will occur in the occurrence of climatic favorability of phoma leaf spot in Brazil in both future scenarios (A2 and B2). As with the temporal distribution, the period of greatest risk of phoma leaf spot will tend to diminish in future decades. These planned changes will be larger in the A2 scenario compared to the predicted scenario B2. Despite the decrease in the favorability of phoma leaf spot in the country, some regions still present a potential risk of this disease. Furthermore, the increased frequency of extreme weather was not taken in to account. These will certainly influence the magnitude of potential impacts of climate change on the phoma leaf spot in Brazil.

Aplicações de sistemas multiagentes na previsão espacial de demanda elétrica em sistemas de distribuição

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Prospecção e monitoramento informacional no contexto da inteligência competitiva em microempresas do ramo óptico da região de Marília - SP

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Planejamento de médio e longo prazo de sistemas de distribuição de energia elétrica com geradores distribuídos (GDs) considerando custos de confiabilidade, operação e expansão

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Modelagem dinâmica espacial de mudanças no uso do solo urbano: contribuição metodológica

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Proposta de metodologia para criação e análise de cenários na continuidade do Programa Reluz, utilizando tecnologia LED em sistemas de iluminação pública

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Mecânica - FEG

Previsão espacial da densidade de carga nos sistemas de distribuição de energia elétrica considerando a geometria fractal da zona urbana

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Variabilidade espacial de atributos físicos de solos antropogênico e não antropogênico na região de Manicoré, AM

Better knowledge of the anthropogenic soils can help create future scenarios for the Amazon region through information that supports the sustainable planning. The aim of this study was to evaluate the spatial variability of soil physical anthropogenic and not anthropogenic in the region of Manipur, AM. In the study area we selected two, one with no anthropogenic soils (native forest) and another with anthropogenic soils (black earth archaeological). In each area, we established a grid measuring 70 x 70 m and the soils were sampled at the points of intersection of the grid with regular spacing of 10 by 10 feet, making a total of 64 sampling points in each landscape. Soil samples were collected at a depth from 0.0 to 0.10 I did the analyzes physical (texture, bulk density, macroporosity, microporososidade, porosity and aggregate stability). Then, the data were subjected to descriptive statistics and geostatistics. It was found that the anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic soils showed different behaviors in relation ace their spatial structures. The spatial variability that prevailed in anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic soil was moderate and weak indicating that these soils are strongly linked to changes in the soil by extrinsic factors. The soil was observed anthropogenic best results for total porosity, microporosity and bulk density, showing superior characteristics compared for agronomic soil not anthropogenic. And the range of values found in the above two areas were used in the mesh, showing greater spatial continuity in these environments.

SIMULATION OF USE AND MANAGEMENT EFFECTS ON THE SOIL ORGANIC MATTER POOLS OF THE ATLANTIC FOREST BIOME, BRAZIL

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Estimativa dos impactos das mudanças climáticas na distribuição das espécies montanas do gênero Brachycephalus (Amphibia: anura) através da modelagem de nicho ecológico

The genus Brachycephalus is endemic to the Atlantic rainforest and is distributed mainly in the southeastern and southern Brazil. Currently, it has 17 recognized species, most of them, associated with mountainous habitats along the Serra do Mar and Serra da Mantiqueira ridges. Here we use an ecological niche modelling approach based on climatic variables, to assess the potential niche of the mountainous species of this genus. The model generated was then projected to future scenarios considering the last IPCC report, in order to estimate the impacts of climate changes on these species distribution. Results show a decrease in the total suitable area for the mountainous Brachycephalus species, as well as tendencies already observed for other organisms, such as, pole and upward migrations. A southern area on Planalto de Paranapiacaba increases in suitability for these species. We suggest special efforts on new surveys and conservation on the northern part of their distribution, once this seems to be the region more affected by climate changes on the projected scenarios

Observational constraints on a phenomenological f (R, partial derivative R)-model

This paper analyses the cosmological consequences of amodified theory of gravity whose action integral is built from a linear combination of the Ricci scalar R and a quadratic term in the covariant derivative of R. The resulting Friedmann equations are of the fifth-order in the Hubble function. These equations are solved numerically for a flat space section geometry and pressureless matter. The cosmological parameters of the higher-order model are fit using SN Ia data and X-ray gas mass fraction in galaxy clusters. The best-fit present-day t(0) values for the deceleration parameter, jerk and snap are given. The coupling constant beta of the model is not univocally determined by the data fit, but partially constrained by it. Density parameter Omega(m0) is also determined and shows weak correlation with the other parameters. The model allows for two possible future scenarios: there may be either an eternal expansion or a Rebouncing event depending on the set of values in the space of parameters. The analysis towards the past performed with the best-fit parameters shows that the model is not able to accommodate a matter-dominated stage required to the formation of structure.

Distributional potential of the Triatoma brasiliensis species complex at present and under scenarios of future climate conditions

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

On the dynamics of some resonances of Phobos in the future

A probable capture of Phobos into an interesting resonance was presented in our previous work. With a simple model, considering Mars in a Keplerian and circular orbit, it was shown that once captured in the resonance, the inclination of the satellite reaches very high values. Here, the integrations are extended to much longer times and escape situations are analyzed. These escapes are due to the interaction of new additional resonances, which appear as the inclination starts to increase reaching some specific values. Compared to classical capture in mean motion resonances, we see some interesting differences in this problem. We also include the effect of Mars' eccentricity in the process of the capture. The role played by this eccentricity becomes important, particularly when Phobos encounters a double resonance at a approximate to 2.619R(M). Planetary perturbations acting on Mars and variation of its equator are also included. In general, some possible scenarios of the future of Phobos are presented.