The bias in reversing the Box-Cox transformation in time series forecasting: An empirical study based on neural networks

The Box-Cox transformation is a technique mostly utilized to turn the probabilistic distribution of a time series data into approximately normal. And this helps statistical and neural models to perform more accurate forecastings. However, it introduces a bias when the reversion of the transformation is conducted with the predicted data. The statistical methods to perform a bias-free reversion require, necessarily, the assumption of Gaussianity of the transformed data distribution, which is a rare event in real-world time series. So, the aim of this study was to provide an effective method of removing the bias when the reversion of the Box-Cox transformation is executed. Thus, the developed method is based on a focused time lagged feedforward neural network, which does not require any assumption about the transformed data distribution. Therefore, to evaluate the performance of the proposed method, numerical simulations were conducted and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error, the Theil Inequality Index and the Signal-to-Noise ratio of 20-step-ahead forecasts of 40 time series were compared, and the results obtained indicate that the proposed reversion method is valid and justifies new studies. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Previsão de séries temporais financeiras por meio de redes neurais dinâmicas e processos de transformação de dados: uma abordagem empírico-comparativa

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

How Cr2O3 influences the microstructure and nonohmic features of the SnO2(COx, Mn1-x)O-based varistor system

An investigation was made to discover how the addition of Cr2O3 affects the microstructural heterogeneity and nonohmic features of the SnO2(Co-x, Mn1-x)O-based varistor system, with x varying from 0 to 1. The presence of Cr2O3 was found to strongly increase the nonohmic features when x = 1. However, the nonohmic features of the system decrease when x drops from 1 to 0, a behavior explained by the increase of the junction heterogeneity within the system's microstructure. accompanied by ail excess of precipitates at the triple point in the grain boundary region due to modified MnO sintering. The presence of these precipitates causes the leakage current to increase in response to the creation of ail ineffective barrier. The effect produced by heat-treating these systems in oxygen- and nitrogen-rich atmospheres suggests that, according to mechanisms previously discussed in the literature, Cr2O3 is more susceptible to oxygen, so that increasing the amount of oxygen in the grain boundary region may improve the system's nonohmic properties. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Type-II super-Backlund transformation and integrable defects for the N=1 super sinh-Gordon model

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Free- and peptide-based dietary arginine supplementation for the South American fish pacu (Piaractus mesopotamicus)

Arginine was hypothesized to be a model compound in the present study on molecular forms of indispensable amino acid (IAA) dietary supplementation. Juvenile South American pacu (Piaractus mesopotamicus) were fed diets containing arginine in a protein base (casein-wheat gluten or casein-gelatin), or the casein-wheat gluten base supplemented with dipeptide or free arginine at two levels (5 and 10 g kg(-1)). Growth and protein efficiency ratios were significantly affected by diets, but not by arginine molecular form. Three free dispensable amino acids (DAA) and four IAA in plasma were affected by diet, but plasma arginine concentrations did not differ. Plasma urea concentrations, being very low in the pacu, and hepatic arginase activities, were not affected by diet (P = 0.10-0.11), but together with plasma ornithine, mirrored the growth data. Molecular form of arginine supplementation, free or dipeptide, significantly changed several free IAA (Phe, Leu, Ile, His) and urea, with a higher mean plasma concentration in dipeptide fed fish. The dietary treatments, or molecular form of the arginine supplementation, did not change proximate composition, except that calcium levels decreased with higher dietary arginine supplementation level. The present study indicates that dipeptides can provide IAA to pacu, and that arginine supplemented in this form is utilized as efficiently as in free form.

Comparison of non-Ohmic accelerated ageing of the ZnO- and SnO2-based voltage dependent resistors

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Influence of degradation on the electrical conduction process in ZnO and SnO2-based varistors

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Effect of the addition of soy lecithin and Yucca schidigera extract on the properties of gelatin and glycerol based biodegradable films

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Influence of diet on oxidative DNA damage, uracil misincorporation and DNA repair capability

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

In vitro algaecide effect of sodium hypochlorite and iodine based antiseptics on Prototheca zopfii strains isolated from bovine milk

Prototheca zopfii has been considered one of the most important causes of environmental mastitis in Brazil. These algae are refractory to conventional therapy and cause great damage to the mammary gland. The present study evaluated the in vitro algaecide effect of sodium hypochlorite and iodine based antiseptics on 27 P. zopfii strains isolated from the milk of cattle. Low concentrations of sodium hypochlorite (0.0390625-0.15625%) and iodine (0.15625-0.625%) were effective against the isolates. These antiseptics may be recommended for hygiene routines, pre and postdipping and cauterization of bovine mammary glands infected by P. zopfii. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The performance of conventional and fluorescence-based methods for occlusal caries detection An in vivo study with histologic validation

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Bacterial leakage in root canals filled with conventional and MTA-based sealers

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Comparative electrical behavior at low and high current of SnO(2)- and ZnO-based varistors

The complete I-V characteristics of SnO(2)-based varistors, particularly of the Pianaro system SCNCr consisting in 98.9%SnO(2)+1%CoO+0.05%Nb(2)O(5)+0.05%Cr(2)O(3), all in mol%, have been seldom reported in the literature. A comparative study at low and high currents of the nonohmic behavior of SCNCr- and ZnO-based varistors (modified Matsuoka system) is proposed in this work. The SCNCr system showed higher nonlinearity coefficients in the whole range of measured current. The electrical breakdown field (E(b)) was twice as high for the SCNCr system (5400 V/cm) than for the ZnO varistor (2600 V/cm) due to a smaller average grain size of the former (4.5 mu m) with respect to the latter (8.5 mu m). Nevertheless, we consider that another important factor responsible for the high E(b) in the SCNCr system is the great number of electrically active interfaces (85%) as determined with electrostatic force microscopy (EFM). It was also established that the SCNCr system might be produced in disks of smaller dimensions than that of commercial ZnO-based product, with a 5.0 cm(-1) minimal area-volume (A/V) ratio. The SCNCr reached the saturation current in a short time because of the high resistivity of the grains, which is five times higher than that of the grains in ZnO-based varistors.