Spatial electric load forecasting using a local movement approach

An agent based model for spatial electric load forecasting using a local movement approach for the spatiotemporal allocation of the new loads in the service zone is presented. The density of electrical load for each of the major consumer classes in each sub-zone is used as the current state of the agents. The spatial growth is simulated with a walking agent who starts his path in one of the activity centers of the city and goes to the limits of the city following a radial path depending on the different load levels. A series of update rules are established to simulate the S growth behavior and the complementarity between classes. The results are presented in future load density maps. The tests in a real system from a mid-size city show a high rate of success when compared with other techniques. The most important features of this methodology are the need for few data and the simplicity of the algorithm, allowing for future scalability. © 2009 IEEE.

Serum biochemical parameters of female bronze Turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo) during egg-laying season

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Reproductive biology of an endemic Physalaemus of the Brazilian Atlantic forest, and the trade-of between clutch and egg size in terrestrial breeders of the P. signifer group

Physalaemus crombiei is a small foam-nesting frog endemic to the Atlantic forest. It is a member of the P. signifer group known only from its type locality in Santa Teresa, State of Espírito Santo, and from another locality in the State of Bahia, Brazil. Most Physalaemus species are aquatic breeders, and species in the P. signifer group are the only ones exhibiting a tendency toward terrestrial reproduction in the genus. Here we describe the reproductive period, breeding site and reproductive modes of P. crombiei from a third population in the Atlantic forest, southeastern Brazil. We also investigated reproductive effort and size-fecundity relationships in females. Reproductive traits were compared to other species in the genus Physalaemus, especially those included in the P. signifer group. Physalaemus crombiei is a prolonged breeder, reproducing throughout the year with a peak of activity during the most rainy months (October-March). Males called from the humid forest foor and eggs embedded in foam nests were deposited in the water as well as on the humid foor amidst the leaf litter, or inside fallen leaves or tree holes containing rainwater on the forest foor. As expected, P. crombiei exhibited three alternative reproductive modes, as described for other species of the P. signifer group. The number of eggs produced per female varied from 91 to 250. Female body size is positively correlated both with ovary mass and clutch size (number of eggs per clutch). Variation in the number and size of eggs observed in Physalaemus species may be explained not only by female size, but also by the terrestrial reproductive mode exhibited by the species in the P. signifer group.

Swarm control designs applied to a non-ideal load transportation system

In this paper, a load transport system in platforms is considered. It is a transport device and is modelled as an inverted pendulum built on a car driven by a DC motor. The motion equations were obtained by Lagrange's equations. The mathematical model considers the interaction between the DC motor and the dynamic system. The dynamic system was analysed and a Swarm Control Design was developed to stabilize the model of this load transport system. ©2010 IEEE.

Spatial load forecasting using a demand propagation approach

A method for spatial electric load forecasting using multi-agent systems, especially suited to simulate the local effect of special loads in distribution systems is presented. The method based on multi-agent systems uses two kinds of agents: reactive and proactive. The reactive agents represent each sub-zone in the service zone, characterizing each one with their corresponding load level, represented in a real number, and their relationships with other sub-zones represented in development probabilities. The proactive agent carry the new load expected to be allocated because of the new special load, this agent distribute the new load in a propagation pattern. The results are presented with maps of future expected load levels in the service zone. The method is tested with data from a mid-size city real distribution system, simulating the effect of a load with attraction and repulsion attributes. The method presents good results and performance. © 2011 IEEE.

Optimal switch allocation for automatic load transfer in distribution substations

This work proposes a methodology for optimized allocation of switches for automatic load transfer in distribution systems in order to improve the reliability indexes by restoring such systems which present voltage classes of 23 to 35 kV and radial topology. The automatic switches must be allocated on the system in order to transfer load remotely among the sources at the substations. The problem of switch allocation is formulated as nonlinear constrained mixed integer programming model subject to a set of economical and physical constraints. A dedicated Tabu Search (TS) algorithm is proposed to solve this model. The proposed methodology is tested for a large real-life distribution system. © 2011 IEEE.

Preprocessing data for short-term load forecasting with a general regression neural network and a moving average filter

This paper proposes a filter based on a general regression neural network and a moving average filter, for preprocessing half-hourly load data for short-term multinodal load forecasting, discussed in another paper. Tests made with half-hourly load data from nine New Zealand electrical substations demonstrate that this filter is able to handle noise, missing data and abnormal data. © 2011 IEEE.

Short-term multinodal load forecasting in distribution systems using general regression neural networks

Multinodal load forecasting deals with the loads of several interest nodes in an electrical network system, which is also known as bus load forecasting. To perform this demand, it is necessary a technique that is precise, trustable and has a short-time processing. This paper proposes two methodologies based on general regression neural networks for short-term multinodal load forecasting. The first individually forecast the local loads and the second forecast the global load and individually forecast the load participation factors to estimate the local loads. To design the forecasters it wasn't necessary the previous study of the local loads. Tests were made using a New Zealand distribution subsystem and the results obtained are compatible with the ones founded in the specialized literature. © 2011 IEEE.

Characterization of the temperature, load and damage effects using piezoelectric transducer patches based on fuzzy clustering

Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) denotes a system with the ability to detect and interpret adverse changes in a structure. One of the critical challenges for practical implementation of SHM system is the ability to detect damage under changing environmental conditions. This paper aims to characterize the temperature, load and damage effects in the sensor measurements obtained with piezoelectric transducer (PZT) patches. Data sets are collected on thin aluminum specimens under different environmental conditions and artificially induced damage states. The fuzzy clustering algorithm is used to organize the sensor measurements into a set of clusters, which can attribute the variation in sensor data due to temperature, load or any induced damage.

Relationship between incubation temperature and egg size with heart hypoplasy in broiler chicks at hatching

It was analyzed if the effects of continuous incubation temperature deviations during the second half on the development of body, organs and hematological respiratory and energetic parameters differ between male and female from 30- and 60-week-old breeder eggs. From day 13, Cobb eggs were exposed to 36°C, 37.5°C, or 39°C. At 3, 6, 12, 24, 48 and 72 h after this change in the temperature and at hatch, red cells count, hematocrit, hemoglobin, mean corpuscular volume, plasma glucose level and body, liver and heart weights were evaluated. Independent of incubation temperature, sexes and breeder ages, mean corpuscular volume decreased and the other variables increased during late incubation. In 30-week-old breeder eggs, body weights and erythrocytic parameters were not influenced by temperature but liver and heart weights decreased increasing incubation temperature and glucose level increased at 36 and 39°C. In 60-week-old breeder eggs, males were heavier at hatching with incubation at 36°C and females had smaller body weights with incubation at 39°C. In both sexes, liver weight decreased and glucose concentration was higher at 36 and 39°C and heart weights and erythrocytes parameters were not influenced by temperature. Independent of breeder age, hatchability was lower at 39°C. The data show that high temperature from day 13 of incubation reduced more intensively the hatching success and caused cardiac hypoplasia in chicks from 30-week-old breeder eggs only, revealing for the first time that the susceptibility for ascites syndrome, by reduced heart development at hatching, is associated to a relationship between incubation temperature and egg size. © Asian Network for Scientific Information, 2012.

Considering Urban Dynamics in spatial electric load forecasting

When dealing with spatio-temporal simulations of load growth inside a service zone, one of the most important problems faced by a Distribution Utility is how to represent the different relationships among different areas. A new load in a certain part of the city could modify the load growth in other parts of the city, even outside of its radius of influence. These interactions are called Urban Dynamics. This work aims to discuss how to implement Urban Dynamics considerations into the spatial electric load forecasting simulations using multi-agent simulations. To explain the approach, three examples are introduced, including the effect of an attraction load, the effect of a repulsive load, and the effect of several attraction/repulsive loads at the same time when considering the natural load growth. © 2012 IEEE.

Application of Conservative Power Theory to load and line characterization and revenue metering

This paper proposes a set of performance factors for load characterization and revenue metering. They are based on the Conservative Power Theory, and each of them relates to a specific load non-ideality (unbalance, reactivity, distortion). The performance factors are capable to characterize the load under different operating conditions, considering also the effect of non-negligible line impedances and supply voltage deterioration. © 2012 IEEE.

Resistance against gastrointestinal nematodes in Crioulo Lageano and crossbred Angus cattle in southern Brazil

Gastrointestinal nematode (GIN) infection is a major cause of production losses in cattle. This study was carried out to evaluate the natural resistance against nematode infection in Crioulo Lageano and crossbred Angus male calves. Crioulo Lageano is a local cattle breed in the state of Santa Catarina, in southern Brazil. Ten weaned calves of each breed were grazed together on pasture and naturally infected with nematodes between July 2009 and December 2010. Once every 28 days, we collected fecal and blood samples for parasitological and immunological tests, as well as recording body weights. After 19 samplings, all animals were slaughtered for quantification and identification of GINs. We found that the animals had been infected with the following nematode species, in decreasing order by the mean number of specimens: Trichostrongylus axei, Cooperia punctata, Ostertagia ostertagi, Haemonchus placei, Oesophagostomum radiatum, and Trichuris spp. There were no significant differences between the Crioulo Lageano and crossbred Angus groups in terms of worm burden or nematode fecal egg count, nor in terms of the mean levels of immunoglobulin (G and A) against C. punctata and H. placei antigens, except in IgA mean level in abomasal mucus against H. placei adult worms that was significantly higher in crossbred Angus cattle (p<0.05). At the end of the study, the crossbred Angus cattle were heavier than were the Crioulo Lageano cattle (mean live weight, 507.35 and 390.3. kg, respectively). Comparative parasitological and immunological evaluation revealed no difference between two breeds in terms of their natural resistance against GINs. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.

Intensified peginterferon α-2a dosing increases sustained virologic response rates in heavy, high viral load hepatitis c genotype 1 patients with high low-density lipoprotein

BACKGROUND AND GOAL: Patients infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) with elevated low-density lipoprotein (LDL) levels achieve higher sustained virologic response (SVR) rates after peginterferon (PegIFN)/ribavirin treatment versus patients with lower LDL. Our aim was to determine whether SVR rates in patients with low/elevated LDL can be improved by dose intensification. STUDY: In PROGRESS, genotype 1 patients with baseline HCV RNA≥400,000 IU/mL and body weight ≥85 kg were randomized to 48 weeks of 180 μg/wk PegIFN α-2a (40 kDa) plus ribavirin (A: 1200 mg/d; B: 1400/1600 mg/d) or 12 weeks of 360 μg/wk PegIFN α-2a followed by 36 weeks of 180 μg/wk, plus ribavirin (C: 1200 mg/d; D: 1400/1600 mg/d). This retrospective analysis assessed SVR rates among patients with low (<100 mg/dL) or elevated (≥100 mg/dL) LDL. Patients with high LDL (n=256) had higher baseline HCV RNA (5.86×10 IU/mL) versus patients with low LDL (n=262; 4.02×10 IU/mL; P=0.0003). RESULTS: Multiple logistic regression analysis identified a significant interaction between PegIFN α-2a dose and LDL levels on SVR (P=0.0193). The only treatment-related SVR predictor in the nested multiple logistic regression was PegIFN α-2a dose among patients with elevated LDL (P=0.0074); therefore, data from the standard (A+B) and induction (C+D) dose arms were pooled. Among patients with low LDL, SVR rates were 40% and 35% in the standard and induction-dose groups, respectively; SVR rates in patients with high LDL were 44% and 60% (P=0.014), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Intensified dosing of PegIFN α-2a increases SVR rates in patients with elevated LDL even with the difficult-to-cure characteristics of genotype 1, high baseline viral load, and high body weight. Copyright © 2013 by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Grip and load force coordination in cyclical isometric manipulation task is not affected by the feedback type

Background: The relationship between normal and tangential force components (grip force - GF and load force - LF, respectively) acting on the digits-object interface during object manipulation reveals neural mechanisms involved in movement control. Here, we examined whether the feedback type provided to the participants during exertion of LF would influence GF-LF coordination and task performance. Methods. Sixteen young (24.7 ±3.8 years-old) volunteers isometrically exerted continuously sinusoidal FZ (vertical component of LF) by pulling a fixed instrumented handle up and relaxing under two feedback conditions: targeting and tracking. In targeting condition, FZ exertion range was determined by horizontal lines representing the upper (10 N) and lower (1 N) targets, with frequency (0.77 or 1.53 Hz) dictated by a metronome. In tracking condition, a sinusoidal template set at similar frequencies and range was presented and should be superposed by the participants' exerted FZ. Task performance was assessed by absolute errors at peaks (AEPeak) and valleys (AEValley) and GF-LF coordination by GF-LF ratios, maximum cross-correlation coefficients (r max), and time lags. Results: The results revealed no effect of feedback and no feedback by frequency interaction on any variable. AE Peak and GF-LF ratio were higher and rmax lower at 1.53 Hz than at 0.77 Hz. Conclusion: These findings indicate that the type of feedback does not influence task performance and GF-LF coordination. Therefore, we recommend the use of tracking tasks when assessing GF-LF coordination during isometric LF exertion in externally fixed instrumented handles because they are easier to understand and provide additional indices (e.g., RMSE) of voluntary force control. © 2013 Pedão et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.