89 resultados para Probabilities


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The objective of this study was to develop a model that allows testing in the wind tunnel at high angles of attack and validates its most critical components by analyzing the results of simulations in finite element software. During the project this structure suffered major loads identified during the flight conditions and, from these, we calculated the stresses in critical regions defined as the parts of the model that have higher failure probabilities. All aspects associated with Load methods, mesh refining and stress analysis were taken into account in this approach. The selection of the analysis software was based on project needs, seeking greater ease of modeling and simulation. We opted for the software ANSYS® since the entire project is being developed in CAD platforms enabling a friendly integration between software's modeling and analysis

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Resonance capture is studied numerically in the three-body problem for arbitrary inclinations. Massless particles are set to drift from outside the 1: 5 resonance with a Jupiter-mass planet thereby encountering the web of the planet's diverse mean motion resonances. Randomly constructed samples explore parameter space for inclinations from 0 to 180 degrees with 5 degrees increments totalling nearly 6 x 10(5) numerical simulations. 30 resonances internal and external to the planet's location are monitored. We find that retrograde resonances are unexpectedly more efficient at capture than prograde resonances and that resonance order is not necessarily a good indicator of capture efficiency at arbitrary inclination. Capture probability drops significantly at moderate sample eccentricity for initial inclinations in the range [10 degrees,110 degrees]. Orbit inversion is possible for initially circular orbits with inclinations in the range [60 degrees,130 degrees]. Capture in the 1:1 co-orbital resonance occurs with great likelihood at large retrograde inclinations. The planet's orbital eccentricity, if larger than 0.1, reduces the capture probabilities through the action of the eccentric Kozai-Lidov mechanism. A capture asymmetry appears between inner and outer resonances as prograde orbits are preferentially trapped in inner resonances. The relative capture efficiency of retrograde resonance suggests that the dynamical lifetimes of Damocloids and Centaurs on retrograde orbits must be significantly larger than those on prograde orbits implying that the recently identified asteroids in retrograde resonance, 2006 BZ8, 2008 SO218, 2009 QY6 and 1999 LE31 may be among the oldest small bodies that wander between the outer giant planets.

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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We analyze the premises of recent propositions to test local realism via the Bell inequalities using neutral kaons from φ resonance decays as entangled Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen pairs. We pay special attention to the derivation of the Bell inequalities, or related expressions, for unstable and oscillating kaon quasispin states and to the possibility of the actual identification of these states through their associated decay modes. We discuss an indirect method to extract probabilities to find these states by combining experimental information with theoretical input. However, we still find inconsistencies in previous derivations of the Bell inequalities. We show that the identification of the quasispin states via their associated decay mode does not allow the free choice to perform different tests on them, a property which is crucial to establish the validity of any Bell inequality in the context of local realism. In view of this we propose a different kind of Bell inequality in which the free choice or adjustability of the experimental setup is guaranteed. We also show that the proposed inequalities are violated by quantum mechanics. ©1999 The American Physical Society.

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The application of the Restricted Dynamics Approach in nuclear theory, based on the approximate solution of many-particle Schrödinger equation, which accounts for all conservation laws in many-nucleon system, is discussed. The Strictly Restricted Dynamics Model is used for the evaluation of binding energies, level schemes, E2 and Ml transition probabilities as well as the electric quadrupole and magnetic dipole momenta of light a-cluster type nuclei in the region 4 ≤ A ≤ 40. The parameters of effective nucleonnucleon interaction potential are evaluated from the ground state binding energies of doubly magic nuclei 4He, 16O and 40Ca.

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A portion of operant literature supports significant production of knowledge about problem solving, observation response and contingency relations between responses with different probabilities of occurrence (Premack Principle). This study investigated possible convergences between a descriptive analysis of ordinal behavior and such portion of the operant literature. Conceptual and methodological analysis of publications have highlighted the relevance of the sequence of events functionally related to the characterization of the production of knowledge about problem solving, observation response and the Premack Principle enabling approaches between programs of research on complex behavioral repertoires as well as expansions in research strategies concerning ordinal responding.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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The objective of this study is to determine the economical and energetic efficiency of the castor bean culture in "Zona da Mata" and South of Minas Gerais. Through the method of simulation "Monte Carlo", we verified the probabilities of occurrence of the economical, cultural and energetic efficiency indexes. In relation to the production systems of castor bean in Minas Gerais in the season 2005/2006, we established that the variables price and productivity were the most noticeable for the producers from "Zona da Mata", while in the South of Minas it was productivity. We verified that the probability of the economical efficiency index to be lower than one was 43,26% for the producers from "Zona da Mata" and 39,57% for the ones from the South of Minas. The medium price received covered the medium costs of production. However, we observed that the medium costs in these regions of Minas Gerais, were over the minimum price. Regarding the energetic analysis, the results showed that the systems in the regions studied in Minas Gerasi, presented average of cultural efficiency indexes of 8,26 and 18,89. We concluded that despite the result being favorable from the energetic point of view, from the economical sustainability point of view there is the need of a more effective support policy for the castor bean, taking into consideration that the expectations of the producers with PNPB were not confirmed.

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Water management has in the watershed plans an important tool to plan the territory and adjust the activities develop over it to the natural resources availability. The incorporation of uncertainty analysis associated with hydrological modelling predictions is a manner to simulate scenarios and work with chances and probabilities that certain events happens inside these plans. Using stochastic methods is possible to consider uncertainty from estimations and even model it. Stochastic methods developed considerably during the last 30 years, but its applications to real-world problems have been limited, and did not turn into routine in hydrology. This paper brings an overview from eminent hydrologists about this subject and discuss the Brazilian and Paulista situation in the scope of groundwater monitoring.

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This study aimed to model a equation for the demand of automobiles and light commercial vehicles, based on the data from February 2007 to July 2014, through a multiple regression analysis. The literature review consists of an information collection of the history of automotive industry, and it has contributed to the understanding of the current crisis that affects this market, which consequence was a large reduction in sales. The model developed was evaluated by a residual analysis and also was used an adhesion test - F test - with a significance level of 5%. In addition, a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.8159 was determined, indicating that 81.59% of the demand for automobiles and light commercial vehicles can be explained by the regression variables: interest rate, unemployment rate, broad consumer price index (CPI), gross domestic product (GDP) and tax on industrialized products (IPI). Finally, other ten samples, from August 2014 to May 2015, were tested in the model in order to validate its forecasting quality. Finally, a Monte Carlo Simulation was run in order to obtain a distribution of probabilities of future demands. It was observed that the actual demand in the period after the sample was in the range that was most likely to occur, and that the GDP and the CPI are the variable that have the greatest influence on the developed model

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The automobile industry shows relevance inside the Brazilian industrial scenario since it contributes with the development of a significant chain of supply, distributors, workshops, publicity agencies and insurance companies in the internal market, aside from being one of the five biggest worldwide market. Thereby, the federal government decreed in Dec, 17th 2012 by Law nº 12.715 the Inovar-Auto Program. As the Adjusted Present Value (APV) is highly recommended, although not yet widespread to public politics of tax reduction, this work intends to apply the APV method on the cash flow analysis of an automobile sector's company, which has recently installed in national territory and wants to rely with governmental incentives proposed by Inovar-Auto Program. The developed work evaluates the company's current cash flow stochastically from mathematical modeling of variables such as price, demand and interest rate through probability distributions with the assist of Crystal Ball software, a Microsoft Excel Add-in, generating different scenarios from Monte Carlo Simulation. As results probabilities situations have been evaluated until the end of the Inovar-Auto's conducted period, in 2017. Beside APV others indicator such as Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and payback period were estimated for the investment project. For APV a sampling distribution with only 0.057% of risk, IRR of 29% were obtained and estimated project payback period was 4.13 years