Analytical and Monte Carlo approaches to evaluate probability distributions of interruption duration

Regulatory authorities in many countries, in order to maintain an acceptable balance between appropriate customer service qualities and costs, are introducing a performance-based regulation. These regulations impose penalties-and, in some cases, rewards-that introduce a component of financial risk to an electric power utility due to the uncertainty associated with preserving a specific level of system reliability. In Brazil, for instance, one of the reliability indices receiving special attention by the utilities is the maximum continuous interruption duration (MCID) per customer.This parameter is responsible for the majority of penalties in many electric distribution utilities. This paper describes analytical and Monte Carlo simulation approaches to evaluate probability distributions of interruption duration indices. More emphasis will be given to the development of an analytical method to assess the probability distribution associated with the parameter MCID and the correspond ng penalties. Case studies on a simple distribution network and on a real Brazilian distribution system are presented and discussed.

The STATFLUX code: a statistical method for calculation of flow and set of parameters, based on the Multiple-Compartment Biokinetical Model

The code STATFLUX, implementing a new and simple statistical procedure for the calculation of transfer coefficients in radionuclide transport to animals and plants, is proposed. The method is based on the general multiple-compartment model, which uses a system of linear equations involving geometrical volume considerations. Flow parameters were estimated by employing two different least-squares procedures: Derivative and Gauss-Marquardt methods, with the available experimental data of radionuclide concentrations as the input functions of time. The solution of the inverse problem, which relates a given set of flow parameter with the time evolution of concentration functions, is achieved via a Monte Carlo Simulation procedure.Program summaryTitle of program: STATFLUXCatalogue identifier: ADYS_v1_0Program summary URL: http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/ADYS_v1_0Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University of Belfast, N. IrelandLicensing provisions: noneComputer for which the program is designed and others on which it has been tested: Micro-computer with Intel Pentium III, 3.0 GHzInstallation: Laboratory of Linear Accelerator, Department of Experimental Physics, University of São Paulo, BrazilOperating system: Windows 2000 and Windows XPProgramming language used: Fortran-77 as implemented in Microsoft Fortran 4.0. NOTE: Microsoft Fortran includes non-standard features which are used in this program. Standard Fortran compilers such as, g77, f77, ifort and NAG95, are not able to compile the code and therefore it has not been possible for the CPC Program Library to test the program.Memory, required to execute with typical data: 8 Mbytes of RAM memory and 100 MB of Hard disk memoryNo. of bits in a word: 16No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 6912No. of bytes in distributed Program, including test data, etc.: 229 541Distribution format: tar.gzNature of the physical problem: the investigation of transport mechanisms for radioactive substances, through environmental pathways, is very important for radiological protection of populations. One such pathway, associated with the food chain, is the grass-animal-man sequence. The distribution of trace elements in humans and laboratory animals has been intensively studied over the past 60 years [R.C. Pendlenton, C.W. Mays, R.D. Lloyd, A.L. Brooks, Differential accumulation of iodine-131 from local fallout in people and milk, Health Phys. 9 (1963) 1253-1262]. In addition, investigations on the incidence of cancer in humans, and a possible causal relationship to radioactive fallout, have been undertaken [E.S. Weiss, M.L. Rallison, W.T. London, W.T. Carlyle Thompson, Thyroid nodularity in southwestern Utah school children exposed to fallout radiation, Amer. J. Public Health 61 (1971) 241-249; M.L. Rallison, B.M. Dobyns, F.R. Keating, J.E. Rall, F.H. Tyler, Thyroid diseases in children, Amer. J. Med. 56 (1974) 457-463; J.L. Lyon, M.R. Klauber, J.W. Gardner, K.S. Udall, Childhood leukemia associated with fallout from nuclear testing, N. Engl. J. Med. 300 (1979) 397-402]. From the pathways of entry of radionuclides in the human (or animal) body, ingestion is the most important because it is closely related to life-long alimentary (or dietary) habits. Those radionuclides which are able to enter the living cells by either metabolic or other processes give rise to localized doses which can be very high. The evaluation of these internally localized doses is of paramount importance for the assessment of radiobiological risks and radiological protection. The time behavior of trace concentration in organs is the principal input for prediction of internal doses after acute or chronic exposure. The General Multiple-Compartment Model (GMCM) is the powerful and more accepted method for biokinetical studies, which allows the calculation of concentration of trace elements in organs as a function of time, when the flow parameters of the model are known. However, few biokinetics data exist in the literature, and the determination of flow and transfer parameters by statistical fitting for each system is an open problem.Restriction on the complexity of the problem: This version of the code works with the constant volume approximation, which is valid for many situations where the biological half-live of a trace is lower than the volume rise time. Another restriction is related to the central flux model. The model considered in the code assumes that exist one central compartment (e.g., blood), that connect the flow with all compartments, and the flow between other compartments is not included.Typical running time: Depends on the choice for calculations. Using the Derivative Method the time is very short (a few minutes) for any number of compartments considered. When the Gauss-Marquardt iterative method is used the calculation time can be approximately 5-6 hours when similar to 15 compartments are considered. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A SIMPLE METHOD FOR DETERMINING LOCATION OF FORAGING ANT NESTS USING LEAF-CUTTING ANTS AS A MODEL

In many situations, it is difficult to evaluate the location of nests of ants, especially in tropical systems, or to determine which trail system corresponds with which nest, as in the case of high-density populations of leaf-cutting ants, Atta spp. Fragments of colored drinking straws coated with an attractant, generally vegetable oil and/or a starchy carbohydrate, are carried by ants and following removal of the attractant are deposited in middens, allowing determination of the origin of foraging workers.

Clinical evaluation of abutment teeth of removable partial denture by means of the Periotest method

Prosthodontics should be one of the means of establishing conditions for the maintenance of periodontal health. The forces applied to the abutment teeth and their effects are very important considerations in the design and construction of the removable partial dentures. This 6-month follow-up clinical study evaluated the degree of mobility of abutment teeth of distal extension and tooth supported removable partial dentures by using Periotest. Two types of clasp design were selected for evaluation. In cases with unilateral and bilateral distal-extension, a clasp design including a T clasp of Roach retentive arm, a rigid reciprocal arm and a mesial rest were used. For the abutments of tooth-supported removable partial dentures, a second clasp design with a cast circumferential buccal retentive arm, a rigid reciprocal clasp arm and a rest adjacent to the edentulous ridges was selected. A total of 68 abutment teeth was analysed. Periotest values were made at the time of denture placement (control) and at 1, 3 and 6 months after the denture placement. The statistical analysis was performed using Friedman test. All analysis was performed at a 0.05 level of significance. The results revelled that no significant changes in tooth mobility were observed during the 6-months follow-up (P > 0.05). In conclusion, our findings suggest that adequate oral hygiene instructions, careful prosthetic treatment planning and regular recall appointments play an important role in preventing changes in abutment tooth mobility caused by removable partial denture placement.

Yellow ZnxNi1-xWO4 pigments obtained using a polymeric precursor method

New tungstate-based ceramic pigments, displaying ZnxNi1-xWO4 stoichiometry, were obtained at low temperature using a polymeric precursor method. The powder precursors were milled in an attritor mill in an alcoholic rnedium and heat treated for 12 h. yielding homogeneous and crystalline powder pigments. Characterization (TG/DTA, XRD, IR and colorimetry) showed that mass loss increased with increasing Zn contents. Despite the presence of secondary phases and impurities, the wolframite phase was present in all samples. IR analysis revealed bands related to Me-O and [WO6](6-) group stretching was observed. The intensity of the yellow color of the pigments increased with increasing amount of nickel. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All fights reserved.

Quantitative Phase Analyses Through The Rietveld Method with X-Ray Powder Diffraction Data of Heat-Treated Carbamazepine Form III

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Fungus incidence on peanut grains as affected by drying method and Ca nutrition

An experiment was conducted to study the effects of liming and drying method on Ca nutrition, fungus infection and aflatoxin production potential on peanut (Arachis hypogea) grains. Peanut cv. Botutatu was grown in the absence or presence of liming to raise the base saturation of the soil from 20 to 56%. Calcium contents of the soil were increased from 5.5 to 14.6 mmol((c))kg-1 and pH from 4.2 to 4.9. After harvest, plants and pods were dried in (1) shade, (2) field down to 100 g water kg-1 (3) field down to 250 g water kg-1 and transferred to a forced-air oven at 30°C, (4) field down to 360 g water kg-1 and transferred to a forced-air oven at 30°C. Calcium contents were analyzed in the grains, pericarps and seed coats. The incidence of Aspergillus spp., Penicillium spp., Rhizopus spp. and potential aflatoxin production in vitro were evaluated, as well as the seed coat thickness. The seed coat was thicker when peanut was grown in the presence of lime, leading to a decrease in seed infection by Aspergillus spp. and Penicillium spp. When plants were dried in shade, the growth of aflatoxinogenic fungi was independent of liming. However, in plants dried in the field or field + oven, the development of these fungi was decreased and even suppressed when the Ca content of the seed coat was increased from 2.2 to 5.5 g kg-1.

Costs estimates and rentability of the guava culture {psidium guajava l. patuma cv.) in monte alto county, Sao Paulo state

This work intended to calculate the rentability of the guava culture Paluma cv. in Monte Alto region-SP, estimating the costs of the implantation, maintenance, production and the gross income of this culture in the first three years of cultivation. The production system utilized refers to the cultural treatments usually used in this culture in the region. The costs estimates were based on the total operational costs methodology used by the Agricultural Economics Institute (I.E.A.). The results obtained showed that the implantation and maintenance costs of the culture, in the two first years was Rs7.402,31/alqueire. Considering the possibility that in guava orchard, on irrigated conditions, reach in the fourthy year a productivity of 80t/alqueire and that the current price is Rs0,20/kg, it is possible to estimate the gross income around of Rs16.000,00/alqueire, resulting in a net income of Rs9.497,06/alqueire.

Economic viability and selection of irrigation systems using simulation and stochastic dominance

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

On the development of the electrochemical potentiokinetic method

The development of electrochemical potentiokinetic methods as applied to the testing of metals and alloys is followed from its early phases up to its latest advances relating to intergranular corrosion, SCC and pitting corrosion tests of stainless steels and special alloys and to the examination of their structure and properties. In assessing the susceptibility to intergranular and pitting corrosion by potentiokinetic polarization tests, the polarization curves which apply to the bulk of the alloy grains (the matrix) must be distinguished from those pertaining to grain boundaries. Cyclic polarization measurements such as the electrochemical potentiokinetic reactivation (EPR) test make it possible to derive the alloy's susceptibility to intergranular, pitting and crevice corrosion from characteristic potentials and other quantities determined in the 'double loop' test. EPR is rapid and responds to the combined effects of a number of factors that influence the properties of materials. The electrochemical p otentiokinetic tests are sensitive enough to detect structural changes in heat treated materials ranging far beyond the stainless steels alone, and can be used for non-destructive testing aimed at elucidating the properties and behavior of materials. © 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantitative structural analysis of the transition from LT-Li xCoO2 to HT-LixCoO2 using the rietveld method: Correlation between structure and electrochemical performance

A quantitative phase analysis was made of LixCoO2 powders obtained by two distinct chemical methodologies at different temperatures (from 400 to 700°C). A phase analysis was made using Rietveld refinements based on X-ray diffraction data, considering the Li xCoO2 powders as a multiphase system that simultaneously contained two main phases with distinct, layered and spinel-type structures. The results showed the coexistence of both structures in LixCoO 2 obtained at low temperature (400 and 500°C), although only the layered structure was detected at higher temperatures (600 and 700°C), regardless of the chemical powder process employed. The electrochemical performance, evaluated mainly by the cycling reversibility of Li xCoO2 in the form of cathode insertion electrodes, revealed that there is a close correlation between structural features and the electrochemical response, with one of the redox processes (3.3 v/3.9 v) associated only with the presence of the spinel-type structure. © 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Method for the evaluation of insecticidal activity over time in Atta sexdens rubropilosa workers (Hymenoptera: Formicidae)

The active ingredients used in the formulation of toxic baits for leaf-cutting ants (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) should possess a delayed action defined as an insecticidal activity whereby worker mortality is ≤15% at 24 hours and ≥90% at 21 days. Serious shortcomings have occurred in the search for new active ingredients, such as the initial selection of fenoxycarb, copper oxychloride and diflubenzuron, compounds considered very promising but whose inefficiency was verified only later, indicating methodological problems. In view of this situation, we developed a classification method for insecticidal activity over time using workers of the leaf-cutting ant Atta sexdens rubropilosa Forel. The insecticides used were fipronil, sulfluramid GX071HB and sulfluramid GX439, vehicled in an attractive pasty formulation prepared based on citrus pulp. The results obtained were consistent from a toxicological viewpoint and agreed with the literature in terms of the control of colonies. Sulfluramids were found to possess a delayed action at a broad range of concentrations, in agreement with the fact that these substances are highly effective in the control of all leaf-cutting ant species. The smaller range of concentrations of fipronil with delayed action is probably related to its lower efficacy for species more difficult to control such as Atta capiguara (Forti et al. 2003). We discuss the importance of relating behavioral particularities to the specific feeding habits of leaf-cutting ants, with methodological adequacy of the assessment of insecticides aimed at toxic baits.

Synthesis and crystal phase evaluation of hydroxylapatite using the rietveld-maximum entropy method

Bioceramic systems based on hydroxylapatite (HAP) are an important class of bioactive materials that may promote bone regeneration. The aim of this research was to evaluate how the stoichiometry of HAP influences its microstructural properties when diagnosed using the combined Rietveld method and Maximum entropy method (MEM). The Rietveld Method (RM) is recognizably a powerful tool used to obtain structural and microstructural information of polycrystalline samples analyzed by x-ray diffraction. Latterly have combined the RM with the maximum entropy method (MEM), with the goal of improve structural refinement results. The MEM provides high resolution maps of electron density and their analysis leave the accurate localization of atoms inside of unit cell. Like that, cycles Rietveld-MEM allow an excellent structural refinement In this work, a hydroxylapatite sample obtained by emulsion method had its structure refined using one cycle Rietveld-MEM with x-ray diffraction data. The indices obtained in initial refinement was Rwp = 7.50%, Re = 6.56%, S - 1.14% e RB = 1.03%. After MEM refinement and electron densities maps analysis to correction of atomics positions, the news indicators of Rietveld refinement quality was Rwp = 7.35%, Re = 6.56%, S = 1.12% and RB = 0.75%. The excellent result obtained to RB shows the efficiency of MEM as auxiliary in the refinement of structure of hydroxylapatite by RM.

Determination of ring-necked pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) serum protein concentrations by refractometry and the biuret method

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of hand-held refractometer in determining serum protein concentrations in ring-necked pheasants (Phasianus colchicus) as compared with the standard biuret method. The results indicated that serum protein values may be accurately determined in ring-necked pheasants with a hand-held refractometer. © Asian Network for Scientific Information, 2008.