A fast electric load forecasting using adaptive neural networks

This work presents a procedure for electric load forecasting based on adaptive multilayer feedforward neural networks trained by the Backpropagation algorithm. The neural network architecture is formulated by two parameters, the scaling and translation of the postsynaptic functions at each node, and the use of the gradient-descendent method for the adjustment in an iterative way. Besides, the neural network also uses an adaptive process based on fuzzy logic to adjust the network training rate. This methodology provides an efficient modification of the neural network that results in faster convergence and more precise results, in comparison to the conventional formulation Backpropagation algorithm. The adapting of the training rate is effectuated using the information of the global error and global error variation. After finishing the training, the neural network is capable to forecast the electric load of 24 hours ahead. To illustrate the proposed methodology it is used data from a Brazilian Electric Company. © 2003 IEEE.

A load cell for grain-propelled ballistic rocket thrust measurement

A 1000-kgf resistive strain-gauge load cell has been developed for quality testing of rocket propellant grain. A 7075-T6 aluminum alloy has been used for the elastic column, in which 8 uniaxial, 120-Ω strain gauges have been bonded and connected to form a full Wheatstone bridge to detect the strain. The chosen geometry makes the transducer insensitive to moments and, also, to the temperature. Experimental tests using a universal testing machine to imposed compression force to the load cell have demonstrated that its behavior is linear, with sensitivity of 2.90 μV/kgf ± 0.34%, and negligible hysteresis. The designed force transducer response to a dynamic test has been comparable to that of a commercial load cell. © 2005 IEEE.

Investigation of the relationship between load and loss factors for a Brazilian electric utility

With the considerable increase of the losses in electric utilities of developing countries, such as Brazil, there is an investigation for loss calculation methodologies, considering both technical (inherent of the system) and non-technical (usually associated to the electricity theft) losses. In general, all distribution networks know the load factor, obtained by measuring parameters directly from the network. However, the loss factor, important for the energy loss cost calculation, can only be obtained in a laborious way. Consequently, several formulas have been developed for obtaining the loss factor. Generally, it is used the expression that relates both factors, through the use of a coefficient k. Last reviews introduce a range of factor k within 0.04 - 0.30. In this work, an analysis with real life load curves is presented, determining new values for the coefficient k in a Brazilian electric utility. © 2006 IEEE.

Spatial electric load forecasting using a local movement approach

An agent based model for spatial electric load forecasting using a local movement approach for the spatiotemporal allocation of the new loads in the service zone is presented. The density of electrical load for each of the major consumer classes in each sub-zone is used as the current state of the agents. The spatial growth is simulated with a walking agent who starts his path in one of the activity centers of the city and goes to the limits of the city following a radial path depending on the different load levels. A series of update rules are established to simulate the S growth behavior and the complementarity between classes. The results are presented in future load density maps. The tests in a real system from a mid-size city show a high rate of success when compared with other techniques. The most important features of this methodology are the need for few data and the simplicity of the algorithm, allowing for future scalability. © 2009 IEEE.

Swarm control designs applied to a non-ideal load transportation system

In this paper, a load transport system in platforms is considered. It is a transport device and is modelled as an inverted pendulum built on a car driven by a DC motor. The motion equations were obtained by Lagrange's equations. The mathematical model considers the interaction between the DC motor and the dynamic system. The dynamic system was analysed and a Swarm Control Design was developed to stabilize the model of this load transport system. ©2010 IEEE.

Spatial load forecasting using a demand propagation approach

A method for spatial electric load forecasting using multi-agent systems, especially suited to simulate the local effect of special loads in distribution systems is presented. The method based on multi-agent systems uses two kinds of agents: reactive and proactive. The reactive agents represent each sub-zone in the service zone, characterizing each one with their corresponding load level, represented in a real number, and their relationships with other sub-zones represented in development probabilities. The proactive agent carry the new load expected to be allocated because of the new special load, this agent distribute the new load in a propagation pattern. The results are presented with maps of future expected load levels in the service zone. The method is tested with data from a mid-size city real distribution system, simulating the effect of a load with attraction and repulsion attributes. The method presents good results and performance. © 2011 IEEE.

Optimal switch allocation for automatic load transfer in distribution substations

This work proposes a methodology for optimized allocation of switches for automatic load transfer in distribution systems in order to improve the reliability indexes by restoring such systems which present voltage classes of 23 to 35 kV and radial topology. The automatic switches must be allocated on the system in order to transfer load remotely among the sources at the substations. The problem of switch allocation is formulated as nonlinear constrained mixed integer programming model subject to a set of economical and physical constraints. A dedicated Tabu Search (TS) algorithm is proposed to solve this model. The proposed methodology is tested for a large real-life distribution system. © 2011 IEEE.

Preprocessing data for short-term load forecasting with a general regression neural network and a moving average filter

This paper proposes a filter based on a general regression neural network and a moving average filter, for preprocessing half-hourly load data for short-term multinodal load forecasting, discussed in another paper. Tests made with half-hourly load data from nine New Zealand electrical substations demonstrate that this filter is able to handle noise, missing data and abnormal data. © 2011 IEEE.

Short-term multinodal load forecasting in distribution systems using general regression neural networks

Multinodal load forecasting deals with the loads of several interest nodes in an electrical network system, which is also known as bus load forecasting. To perform this demand, it is necessary a technique that is precise, trustable and has a short-time processing. This paper proposes two methodologies based on general regression neural networks for short-term multinodal load forecasting. The first individually forecast the local loads and the second forecast the global load and individually forecast the load participation factors to estimate the local loads. To design the forecasters it wasn't necessary the previous study of the local loads. Tests were made using a New Zealand distribution subsystem and the results obtained are compatible with the ones founded in the specialized literature. © 2011 IEEE.

Characterization of the temperature, load and damage effects using piezoelectric transducer patches based on fuzzy clustering

Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) denotes a system with the ability to detect and interpret adverse changes in a structure. One of the critical challenges for practical implementation of SHM system is the ability to detect damage under changing environmental conditions. This paper aims to characterize the temperature, load and damage effects in the sensor measurements obtained with piezoelectric transducer (PZT) patches. Data sets are collected on thin aluminum specimens under different environmental conditions and artificially induced damage states. The fuzzy clustering algorithm is used to organize the sensor measurements into a set of clusters, which can attribute the variation in sensor data due to temperature, load or any induced damage.

Considering Urban Dynamics in spatial electric load forecasting

When dealing with spatio-temporal simulations of load growth inside a service zone, one of the most important problems faced by a Distribution Utility is how to represent the different relationships among different areas. A new load in a certain part of the city could modify the load growth in other parts of the city, even outside of its radius of influence. These interactions are called Urban Dynamics. This work aims to discuss how to implement Urban Dynamics considerations into the spatial electric load forecasting simulations using multi-agent simulations. To explain the approach, three examples are introduced, including the effect of an attraction load, the effect of a repulsive load, and the effect of several attraction/repulsive loads at the same time when considering the natural load growth. © 2012 IEEE.

Application of Conservative Power Theory to load and line characterization and revenue metering

This paper proposes a set of performance factors for load characterization and revenue metering. They are based on the Conservative Power Theory, and each of them relates to a specific load non-ideality (unbalance, reactivity, distortion). The performance factors are capable to characterize the load under different operating conditions, considering also the effect of non-negligible line impedances and supply voltage deterioration. © 2012 IEEE.

Intensified peginterferon α-2a dosing increases sustained virologic response rates in heavy, high viral load hepatitis c genotype 1 patients with high low-density lipoprotein

BACKGROUND AND GOAL: Patients infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) with elevated low-density lipoprotein (LDL) levels achieve higher sustained virologic response (SVR) rates after peginterferon (PegIFN)/ribavirin treatment versus patients with lower LDL. Our aim was to determine whether SVR rates in patients with low/elevated LDL can be improved by dose intensification. STUDY: In PROGRESS, genotype 1 patients with baseline HCV RNA≥400,000 IU/mL and body weight ≥85 kg were randomized to 48 weeks of 180 μg/wk PegIFN α-2a (40 kDa) plus ribavirin (A: 1200 mg/d; B: 1400/1600 mg/d) or 12 weeks of 360 μg/wk PegIFN α-2a followed by 36 weeks of 180 μg/wk, plus ribavirin (C: 1200 mg/d; D: 1400/1600 mg/d). This retrospective analysis assessed SVR rates among patients with low (<100 mg/dL) or elevated (≥100 mg/dL) LDL. Patients with high LDL (n=256) had higher baseline HCV RNA (5.86×10 IU/mL) versus patients with low LDL (n=262; 4.02×10 IU/mL; P=0.0003). RESULTS: Multiple logistic regression analysis identified a significant interaction between PegIFN α-2a dose and LDL levels on SVR (P=0.0193). The only treatment-related SVR predictor in the nested multiple logistic regression was PegIFN α-2a dose among patients with elevated LDL (P=0.0074); therefore, data from the standard (A+B) and induction (C+D) dose arms were pooled. Among patients with low LDL, SVR rates were 40% and 35% in the standard and induction-dose groups, respectively; SVR rates in patients with high LDL were 44% and 60% (P=0.014), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Intensified dosing of PegIFN α-2a increases SVR rates in patients with elevated LDL even with the difficult-to-cure characteristics of genotype 1, high baseline viral load, and high body weight. Copyright © 2013 by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Grip and load force coordination in cyclical isometric manipulation task is not affected by the feedback type

Background: The relationship between normal and tangential force components (grip force - GF and load force - LF, respectively) acting on the digits-object interface during object manipulation reveals neural mechanisms involved in movement control. Here, we examined whether the feedback type provided to the participants during exertion of LF would influence GF-LF coordination and task performance. Methods. Sixteen young (24.7 ±3.8 years-old) volunteers isometrically exerted continuously sinusoidal FZ (vertical component of LF) by pulling a fixed instrumented handle up and relaxing under two feedback conditions: targeting and tracking. In targeting condition, FZ exertion range was determined by horizontal lines representing the upper (10 N) and lower (1 N) targets, with frequency (0.77 or 1.53 Hz) dictated by a metronome. In tracking condition, a sinusoidal template set at similar frequencies and range was presented and should be superposed by the participants' exerted FZ. Task performance was assessed by absolute errors at peaks (AEPeak) and valleys (AEValley) and GF-LF coordination by GF-LF ratios, maximum cross-correlation coefficients (r max), and time lags. Results: The results revealed no effect of feedback and no feedback by frequency interaction on any variable. AE Peak and GF-LF ratio were higher and rmax lower at 1.53 Hz than at 0.77 Hz. Conclusion: These findings indicate that the type of feedback does not influence task performance and GF-LF coordination. Therefore, we recommend the use of tracking tasks when assessing GF-LF coordination during isometric LF exertion in externally fixed instrumented handles because they are easier to understand and provide additional indices (e.g., RMSE) of voluntary force control. © 2013 Pedão et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Analysis of efficiency and rationality in a sugar-alcohol mill using hyperboloid a-load and potency

Brazil is the world's largest producer of sugar cane and which in the state of São Paulo concentrate the greatest amount of sugar cane field of the country. The sugar-alcohol sector has the capacity to produce sufficient thermal and electrical energy to be used in their process of production and commercialize of surplus in electricity distribution network. Therefore it is necessary to evaluate the energy efficiency and rationality within the mill. Accordingly this research proposed analyze the sugar-alcohol mill's sectors globally and individually, located in the west center of the São Paulo state, using the valuation methodology employed by the Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica (ANEEL) in the industries that do not have systems of cogeneration. In this analysis, the hyperboloids of load and potency were applied based on the indexes of potency factor and load factor that allow estimate the efficiency and rationality. © 2013 IEEE.