Ecological modeling and pest population management: a possible and necessary connection in a changing world

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Stochastic dynamics in exotic and native blowflies: an analysis combining laboratory experiments and a two-patch metapopulation model

In this study we explored the stochastic population dynamics of three exotic blowfly species, Chrysomya albiceps, Chrysomya megacephala and Chrysomya putoria, and two native species, Cochliomyia macellaria and Lucilia eximia, by combining a density-dependent growth model with a two-patch metapopulation model. Stochastic fecundity, survival and migration were investigated by permitting random variations between predetermined demographic boundary values based on experimental data. Lucilia eximia and Chrysomya albiceps were the species most susceptible to the risk of local extinction. Cochliomyia macellaria, C. megacephala and C. putoria exhibited lower risks of extinction when compared to the other species. The simultaneous analysis of stochastic fecundity and survival revealed an increase in the extinction risk for all species. When stochastic fecundity, survival and migration were simulated together, the coupled populations were synchronized in the five species. These results are discussed, emphasizing biological invasion and interspecific interaction dynamics.

Fuzzy subset approach in coupled population dynamics of blowflies

This paper is a study on the population dynamics of blowflies employing a density-dependent. non-linear mathematical model and a coupled population formalism. In this Study, we investigated the coupled population dynamics applying fuzzy subsets to model the Population trajectory. analyzing demographic parameters such as fecundity, Survival, and migration. The main results suggest different possibilities in terms of dynamic behavior produced by migration in coupled Populations between distinct environments and the rescue effect generated by the connection between populations. It was possible to conclude that environmental heterogeneity can play an important role in blowfly metapopulation systems. The implications of these results for population dynamics of blowflies are discussed.

Population dynamics of Musca domestica (Diptera: Muscidae): experimental and theoretical studies at different temperatures

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

How to not inflate population estimates? Spatial density distribution of white-lipped peccaries in a continuous Atlantic forest

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Population dynamics of Chrysomya megacephala (Diptera : Calliphoridae) at different temperatures

In this study we analysed the theoretical population dynamics of C. megacephala, an exotic blowfly, kept at 25 and 30degreesC, using a density-dependent mathematical model, with parametric estimates of survival and fecundity in the laboratory. No change in terms of oscillation patterns was found for the two temperatures. The populations exhibited a two-point limit cycle, i.e. oscillations between two fixed points, at 25 and 30degreesC. However a quantitative change was observed, indicating that at 25degreesC the number of immatures in equilibrium is 1176 and at 30degreesC, 1944. The implications of this difference in terms of equilibrium for population dynamics of C. megacephala are discussed.

IL-1ra anti-inflammatory cytokine polymorphism is associated with risk of gastric cancer and chronic gastritis in a Brazilian population, but the TNF-beta pro-inflammatory cytokine is not

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Ploidy, sex and crossing over in an evolutionary aging model

Nowadays, many forms of reproduction coexist in nature: Asexual, Sexual, apomictic and meiotic parthenogenesis, hermaphroditism and parasex. The mechanisms of their evolution and what made them successful reproductive alternatives are very challenging and debated questions. Here, using a simple evolutionary aging model, we give I possible scenario. By studying the performance of Populations where individuals may have diverse characteristics-different ploidies, sex with or without crossing over, as well as the absence of sex-we find all evolution sequence that may explain why there are actually two major or leading groups: Sexual and asexual. We also investigate the dependence of these characteristics on different conditions of fertility and deleterious mutations. Finally, if the primeval organisms oil Earth were, in fact, asexual individuals we conjecture that the sexual form of reproduction could have more easily been set and found its niche during a period of low-intensity mutations. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Population persistence in weakly-coupled sinks

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Stochastic Skellam model

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

How the interplay between individual spatial memory and landscape persistence can generate population distribution patterns

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Richards growth model and viability indicators for populations subject to interventions

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Seasonal variation of Alphitobius diaperinus population in broiler facilities in the center-north region of the state of São Paulo

The seasonality of Alphitobius diaperinus population was studied during different seasons during one year, in broiler facilities located in the center-north region of the State of São Paulo. Parasite counting was weekly carried out by the use of traps adapted from the modified model of Arends. During the experimental period, facilities were not submitted to chemical treatment, and the litter was changed between flocks. A lower number of adults and larvae was observed during autumn, with the peak registered in the summer. There was no significant difference between spring and winter averages (adults and larvae), and between spring and summer averages (adults). Average temperatures in the facilities varied from 23.4ºC (winter) to 27.1ºC (spring). The environmentally controlled systems used by the broiler industry provide an adequate habitat for A. diaperinus development. The continuous monitoring of the population of this parasite is essential for designing control strategies, and this can be accomplished by utilizing the traps used in the present experiment.

Estimation of population profiles of two strains of the fly Megaselia scalaris (Diptera: Phoridae) by bootstrap simulation

A partir de perfis populacionais experimentais de linhagens do díptero forídeo Megaselia scalaris, foi determinado o número mínimo de perfis amostrais que devem ser repetidos, via processo de simulação bootstrap, para se ter uma estimativa confiável do perfil médio populacional e apresentar estimativas do erro-padrão como medida da precisão das simulações realizadas. Os dados originais são provenientes de populações experimentais fundadas com as linhagens SR e R4, com três réplicas cada, e que foram mantidas por 33 semanas pela técnica da transferência seriada em câmara de temperatura constante (25 ± 1,0ºC). A variável usada foi tamanho populacional e o modelo adotado para cada perfíl foi o de um processo estocástico estacionário. Por meio das simulações, os perfis de três populações experimentais foram amplificados, determinando-se, dessa forma, o tamanho mínimo de amostra. Fixado o tamanho de amostra, simulações bootstrap foram realizadas para construção de intervalos de confiança e comparação dos perfis médios populacionais das duas linhagens. Os resultados mostram que com o tamanho de amostra igual a 50 inicia-se o processo de estabilização dos valores médios.

Testing transposable elements as genetic drive mechanisms using Drosophila P element constructs as a model system

The use of transposable elements (TEs) as genetic drive mechanisms was explored using Drosophila melanogaster as a model system. Alternative strategies, employing autonomous and nonautonomous P element constructs were compared for their efficiency in driving the ry(+) allele into populations homozygous for a ry(-) allele at the genomic rosy locus. Transformed flies were introduced at 1%, 5%, and 10% starting frequencies to establish a series of populations that were monitored over the course of 40 generations, using both phenotypic and molecular assays. The transposon-borne ry(+) marker allele spread rapidly in almost all populations when introduced at 5% and 10% seed frequencies, but 1% introductions frequently failed to become established. A similar initial rapid increase in frequency of the ry(+) transposon occurred in several control populations lacking a source of transposase. Constructs carrying ry(+) markers also increased to moderate frequencies in the absence of selection on the marker. The results of Southern and in situ hybridization studies indicated a strong inverse relationship between the degree of conservation of construct integrity and transposition frequency. These finding have relevance to possible future applications of transposons as genetic drive mechanisms.