Transmission network expansion planning considering uncertainty in generation and demand

This paper presents a mathematical model and a methodology to solve a transmission network expansion planning problem considering uncertainty in demand and generation. The methodology used to solve the problem, finds the optimal transmission network expansion plan that allows the power system to operate adequately in an environment with uncertainty. The model presented results in an optimization problem that is solved using a specialized genetic algorithm. The results obtained for known systems from the literature show that cheaper plans can be found satisfying the uncertainty in demand and generation. ©2008 IEEE.

Calibration uncertainty estimation for internal aerodynamic balance

Aerodynamic balances are employed in wind tunnels to estimate the forces and moments acting on the model under test. This paper proposes a methodology for the assessment of uncertainty in the calibration of an internal multi-component aerodynamic balance. In order to obtain a suitable model to provide aerodynamic loads from the balance sensor responses, a calibration is performed prior to the tests by applying known weights to the balance. A multivariate polynomial fitting by the least squares method is used to interpolate the calibration data points. The uncertainties of both the applied loads and the readings of the sensors are considered in the regression. The data reduction includes the estimation of the calibration coefficients, the predicted values of the load components and their corresponding uncertainties, as well as the goodness of fit.

Reactive power support pricing of distributed generators with primary energy source uncertainty

In this paper, a novel methodology to price the reactive power support ancillary service of Distributed Generators (DGs) with primary energy source uncertainty is shown. The proposed methodology provides the service pricing based on the Loss of Opportunity Costs (LOC) calculation. An algorithm is proposed to reduce the uncertainty present in these generators using Multiobjective Power Flows (MOPFs) implemented in multiple probabilistic scenarios through Monte Carlo Simulations (MCS), and modeling the time series associated with the generation of active power from DGs through Markov Chains (MC). © 2011 IEEE.

A multi-objective programming approach for the optimal operation of distributed generation considering uncertainty

Due to the renewed interest in distributed generation (DG), the number of DG units incorporated in distribution systems has been rapidly increasing in the past few years. This situation requires new analysis tools for understanding system performance, and taking advantage of the potential benefits of DG. This paper presents an evolutionary multi-objective programming approach to determine the optimal operation of DG in distribution systems. The objectives are the minimization of the system power losses and operation cost of the DG units. The proposed approach also considers the inherent stochasticity of DG technologies powered by renewable resources. Some tests were carried out on the IEEE 34 bus distribution test system showing the robustness and applicability of the proposed methodology. © 2011 IEEE.

State Dependent Riccati Equation (SDRE) control method applied in cancellation of a parametric resonance in a magnetically levitated body

Here, a simplified dynamical model of a magnetically levitated body is considered. The origin of an inertial Cartesian reference frame is set at the pivot point of the pendulum on the levitated body in its static equilibrium state (ie, the gap between the magnet on the base and the magnet on the body, in this state). The governing equations of motion has been derived and the characteristic feature of the strategy is the exploitation of the nonlinear effect of the inertial force associated, with the motion of a pendulum-type vibration absorber driven, by an appropriate control torque [4]. In the present paper, we analyzed the nonlinear dynamics of problem, discussed the energy transfer between the main system and the pendulum in time, and developed State Dependent Riccati Equation (SDRE) control design to reducing the unstable oscillatory movement of the magnetically levitated body to a stable fixed point. The simulations results showed the effectiveness of the (SDRE) control design. Copyright © 2011 by ASME.

Students' foregrounds: Hope, despair, uncertainty

A foreground is formed through the possibilities, tendencies, propensities, obstructions, barriers, hindrances, et cetera, which his or her context provides for a person. Simultaneously, a foreground is formed through the person's interpretations of these possibilities, tendencies, propensities, obstructions, barriers, hindrances. A foreground is a fragmented, partial, and inconsistent constellation of bits and pieces of aspirations, hopes, and frustrations. It might be both promising and frightening; it is always being rebuilt and restructured. Foregrounds are multiple as one person might see very different possibilities; at the same time they are collective and established through processes of communication. In this article educational meaning is discussed in terms of relationships between the students' foregrounds and activities in the classroom. I illustrate how students' dreams might be kept in cages, and how this has implications for how they engage or do not engage in learning processes. I investigate how a foreground might be ruined, and in what sense a ruined foreground might turn into a learning obstacle. Finally, I discuss processes of inclusion and exclusion with reference to the notion of foreground. © 2012. The Authors.

A note on non-linear phenomena in a non-ideal oscillator, with a snap-through truss absorber, including parameter uncertainties

This work considers the vibrating system that consists of a snap-through truss absorber coupled to an oscillator under excitation of an electric motor with an eccentricity and limited power, characterizing a non-ideal oscillator. It is aimed to use the non-linearity and quasi-zero stiffness of absorber (snap-through truss absorber) to obtain a significantly attenuation the jump phenomenon. There is also an interest to exhibit the reduction of Sommerfeld effect, to confirm the saturation phenomenon occurrence and show the power transfer in a non-linear structure, evidencing the pumping energy. As shown by simulations in this work, this absorber allows the energy pumping before and during the jump phenomenon, decreasing the higher amplitudes of considered system. Additionally, the occurrence of saturation phenomenon due use of snap-through truss absorber is verified. The analysis of parameter uncertainties was introduced. Sensitivity of system with parametric errors demonstrated a trustable system. © IMechE 2012.

Optimal linear control to parametric uncertainties in a micro electro mechanical system

This paper, a micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS) with parametric uncertainties is considered. The non-linear dynamics in MEMS system is demonstrated with a chaotic behavior. We present the linear optimal control technique for reducing the chaotic movement of the micro-electromechanical system with parametric uncertainties to a small periodic orbit. The simulation results show the identification by linear optimal control is very effective. © 2013 Academic Publications, Ltd.

Nonlinear control system applied to atomic force microscope including parametric errors

The performance of the optimal linear feedback control and of the state-dependent Riccati equation control techniques applied to control and to suppress the chaotic motion in the atomic force microscope are analyzed. In addition, the sensitivity of each control technique regarding to parametric uncertainties are considered. Simulation results show the advantages and disadvantages of each technique. © 2013 Brazilian Society for Automatics - SBA.

Parametric VaR with goodness-of-fit tests based on EDF statistics for extreme returns

Parametric VaR (Value-at-Risk) is widely used due to its simplicity and easy calculation. However, the normality assumption, often used in the estimation of the parametric VaR, does not provide satisfactory estimates for risk exposure. Therefore, this study suggests a method for computing the parametric VaR based on goodness-of-fit tests using the empirical distribution function (EDF) for extreme returns, and compares the feasibility of this method for the banking sector in an emerging market and in a developed one. The paper also discusses possible theoretical contributions in related fields like enterprise risk management (ERM). © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Current status, uncertainty and future needs in soil organic carbon monitoring

Increasing human demands on soil-derived ecosystem services requires reliable data on global soil resources for sustainable development. The soil organic carbon (SOC) pool is a key indicator of soil quality as it affects essential biological, chemical and physical soil functions such as nutrient cycling, pesticide and water retention, and soil structure maintenance. However, information on the SOC pool, and its temporal and spatial dynamics is unbalanced. Even in well-studied regions with a pronounced interest in environmental issues information on soil carbon (C) is inconsistent. Several activities for the compilation of global soil C data are under way. However, different approaches for soil sampling and chemical analyses make even regional comparisons highly uncertain. Often, the procedures used so far have not allowed the reliable estimation of the total SOC pool, partly because the available knowledge is focused on not clearly defined upper soil horizons and the contribution of subsoil to SOC stocks has been less considered. Even more difficult is quantifying SOC pool changes over time. SOC consists of variable amounts of labile and recalcitrant molecules of plant, and microbial and animal origin that are often operationally defined. A comprehensively active soil expert community needs to agree on protocols of soil surveying and lab procedures towards reliable SOC pool estimates. Already established long-term ecological research sites, where SOC changes are quantified and the underlying mechanisms are investigated, are potentially the backbones for regional, national, and international SOC monitoring programs. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Métodos de bootstrap e aplicações em problemas biológicos

Pós-graduação em Matemática Universitária - IGCE

The first molecular phylogeny of Chilodontidae (Teleostei: Ostariophysi: Characiformes) reveals cryptic biodiversity and taxonomic uncertainty

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Amazon forest biomass density maps: tackling the uncertainty in carbon emission estimates

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Internal standard for amorphous pharmaceuticals products quantification and an application of Parametric Rietveld refinement using time, temperature and relative humidity as 'non-crystallographic' parameters

Pós-graduação em Química - IQ