37 resultados para model validation
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The pharmacokinetics of enrofloxacin (ENRO), a fluoroquinolone antimicrobial agent, was studied in male broiler chickens (Cobb) after single oral administration of 10 mg of ENRO/kg b.w. A high-performance liquid chromatography-photodiode array detector (DAD) (HPLC-DAD) method was developed and validated and used for quantitation of ENRO and its major metabolite ciprofloxacin in plasma. The HPLC analyses were carried out using a cationic-octadecyl mixed column and 0.05 mol/L phosphate buffer (pH 2.5)/acetonitrile as mobile phase. The sample preparation of plasma consisted of the precipitation of proteins followed by solid phase extraction on cationic-octadecyl mixed cartridges. The method was validated considering linear range, linearity, selectivity, sensitivity, limit of detection (LOD), limit of quantitation (LOQ), intra- and inter-day precisions and accuracy. The LOD and LOQ for both fluoroquinolones were 60 and 200 ng/mL for plasma. The plasma concentration vs. time graph was characteristic of a two-compartment open model. The maximal plasma concentration of 1.5 +/- 0.2 mg/mL was achieved at 9 +/- 2 h. The elimination half-life and the mean residence time of ENRO were 1.5 +/- 0.2 and 15.64 h, respectively. The area under the concentration-time curve was calculated as 35 +/- 4 mg(.)h/mL.
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In this paper a model, called ELLOBO running in STELLA II, was set to describe the plankton system of the Broa reservoir (SP). The three state variables of the model are: phytoplankton, zooplankton, and the fish Astyanax fasciatus. The forcing variables are: temperature, nitrate, phosphorus and solar radiation. The model did not consider the cycling of nutrients inside the reservoir. The results show that: temperature is the principal forcing variable in the phytoplankton dynamic and in the subsequent evolution of the whole system. The zooplankton predation was described by Odum's equation, and there is a strong random component in zooplankton grazing, which was essential for the model, because zooplankton estimates have high variance. One must collect data in a short space of time (maybe daily) to better explain the zooplankton and phytoplankton variation. Validation was performed using simple statistics (arithmetic mean, standard deviation) and the results show concordance between observed and simulated values. Overhead was used to calibrate some parameters and to validate the model. The highest overhead value (5%) imply in the better accordance between estimated and;observed state variables values. We believe this approach in Broa reservoir will provide an useful tool for future research and it could be used comparatively in other continental aquatic ecosystems. (C) 2000 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.
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O objetivo do artigo foi avaliar o uso da lógica fuzzy para estimar possibilidade de óbito neonatal. Desenvolveu-se um modelo computacional com base na teoria dos conjuntos fuzzy, tendo como variáveis peso ao nascer, idade gestacional, escore de Apgar e relato de natimorto. Empregou-se o método de inferência de Mamdani, e a variável de saída foi o risco de morte neonatal. Criaram-se 24 regras de acordo com as variáveis de entrada, e a validação do modelo utilizou um banco de dados real de uma cidade brasileira. A acurácia foi estimada pela curva ROC; os riscos foram comparados pelo teste t de Student. O programa MATLAB 6.5 foi usado para construir o modelo. Os riscos médios foram menores para os que sobreviveram (p < 0,001). A acurácia do modelo foi 0,90. A maior acurácia foi com possibilidade de risco igual ou menor que 25% (sensibilidade = 0,70, especificidade = 0,98, valor preditivo negativo = 0,99 e valor preditivo positivo = 0,22). O modelo mostrou acurácia e valor preditivo negativo bons, podendo ser utilizado em hospitais gerais.
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This work presents analyses of the atmospheric conditions and the hindcast of the surface wave field when six extratropical cyclones formed and displaced over the South Atlantic Ocean (10degreesN, 60degreesS; 75degreesW, 15degreesE) between April and September 1999. These events caused high sea waves associated with hazardous conditions along the south and southeast coast of Brazil. The meteorological composite fields for these cyclones show a strong near-surface wind velocity (up to 14 m s(-1)) during its mature phase. The sea-state wave hindcast was obtained using a third-generation wave model forced by the 10-m above ground level wind field from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis dataset. Closer to the south and southeast Brazilian coast, the hindcast results showed significant wave heights of up to 5 m in some of the events. The wave hindcast results for the significant wave height were compared against satellite altimeter data at 6 h intervals. The statistical index showed a systematic underestimation of the significant wave height by 0.5 m. The correlation between wave hindcast and altimeter measurements was greater than 90%, showing a good phase reproduction by the wave model.
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Field trial measurements are used to validate the level crossing rate formula derived in an exact manner recently for the Nakagami-m signal. The formula reveals an excellent fit to measurements in situations other than those for which the Rice model is more appropriate.
Assessing the uncertainties of model estimates of primary productivity in the tropical Pacific Ocean
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Depth-integrated primary productivity (PP) estimates obtained from satellite ocean color-based models (SatPPMs) and those generated from biogeochemical ocean general circulation models (BCGCMs) represent a key resource for biogeochemical and ecological studies at global as well as regional scales. Calibration and validation of these PP models are not straightforward, however, and comparative studies show large differences between model estimates. The goal of this paper is to compare PP estimates obtained from 30 different models (21 SatPPMs and 9 BOGCMs) to a tropical Pacific PP database consisting of similar to 1000 C-14 measurements spanning more than a decade (1983-1996). Primary findings include: skill varied significantly between models, but performance was not a function of model complexity or type (i.e. SatPPM vs. BOGCM); nearly all models underestimated the observed variance of PR specifically yielding too few low PP (< 0.2 g Cm-2 d(-1)) values; more than half of the total root-mean-squared model-data differences associated with the satellite-based PP models might be accounted for by uncertainties in the input variables and/or the PP data; and the tropical Pacific database captures a broad scale shift from low biomassnormalized productivity in the 1980s to higher biomass-normalized productivity in the 1990s, which was not successfully captured by any of the models. This latter result suggests that interdecadal and global changes will be a significant challenge for both SatPPMs and BOGCMs. Finally, average root-mean-squared differences between in situ PP data on the equator at 140 degrees W and PP estimates from the satellite-based productivity models were 58% lower than analogous values computed in a previous PP model comparison 6 years ago. The success of these types of comparison exercises is illustrated by the continual modification and improvement of the participating models and the resulting increase in model skill. (C) 2008 Elsevier BY. All rights reserved.
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The double pulley equipment was tested on ten male volunteers during contraction of the semitendinosus and biceps femoris (caput longum) muscles in the following movements of the lower limbs: 1) hip extension with extended knee and erect trunk, 2) hip extension with flexed knee and erect trunk, 3) hip extension with flexed knee and erect trunk, 3) hip extension with extended knee and inclined trunk, 5) hip abduction along the midline, 7) hip abduction with extension beyond the midline, 8) adduction with hip flexion beyond the midline, 8) adduction with hip flexion beyond the midline, and 9) adduction with hip extension beyond the midline. The myoelectric signals were taken up by Lec Tec surface electrodes connected to a 6-channel Lynx electromyographic signal amplifier coupled with a computer equipped with a model CAD 10/26 analogue digital conversion board and with a specific software for signal recording and analysis. The semitendinosus and biceps femoris muscles presented the highest potentials in movements 1; 2; 7, 8 and 9, whereas the potentials in the remaining movements were negligible. The pattern of activity of the semitendinosus and the biceps femoris was similar in exercises 1, 2, 3, 4 and 8. The potentials of the semitendinosus prevailed in movements 5, 6 and 7, and the strongest potentials observed in movement 9 were those of the biceps femoris.
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Numerical modeling of the interaction among waves and coastal structures is a challenge due to the many nonlinear phenomena involved, such as, wave propagation, wave transformation with water depth, interaction among incident and reflected waves, run-up / run-down and wave overtopping. Numerical models based on Lagrangian formulation, like SPH (Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics), allow simulating complex free surface flows. The validation of these numerical models is essential, but comparing numerical results with experimental data is not an easy task. In the present paper, two SPH numerical models, SPHysics LNEC and SPH UNESP, are validated comparing the numerical results of waves interacting with a vertical breakwater, with data obtained in physical model tests made in one of the LNEC's flume. To achieve this validation, the experimental set-up is determined to be compatible with the Characteristics of the numerical models. Therefore, the flume dimensions are exactly the same for numerical and physical model and incident wave characteristics are identical, which allows determining the accuracy of the numerical models, particularly regarding two complex phenomena: wave-breaking and impact loads on the breakwater. It is shown that partial renormalization, i.e. renormalization applied only for particles near the structure, seems to be a promising compromise and an original method that allows simultaneously propagating waves, without diffusion, and modeling accurately the pressure field near the structure.
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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A reversed-phase liquid chromatography (RP-LC) method was validated for the determination of tigecycline in lyophilized powder. The LC method was conducted on a Luna C18 column (250 × 4.6 mm i.d.), maintained at room temperature. The mobile phase consisted of buffer containing sodium phosphate monobasic (0.015M) and oxalic acid (0.015M) (pH 7.0)-acetonitrile (75:25, v/v), run at a flow rate of 1.0 mL/min and using ultraviolet detection at 280 nm. The chromatographic separation was obtained with a retention time of 8.6 min, and was linear in the range of 40-100 μg/mL (r2 = 0.9997). The specificity and stability-indicating capability of the method was proven through forced degradation studies, which also showed no interference of the excipients. The accuracy was 99.01% with a bias lower than 1.81%. The limits of detection and quantitation were 1.67 and 5.05 μg/mL, respectively. Moreover, method validation demonstrated satisfactory results for precision and robustness. The proposed method was applied for the analysis of the lyophilized powder formulation, contributing to improve the quality control and to assure the therapeutic efficacy. © The Author [2012]. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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There are strong uncertainties regarding LAI dynamics in forest ecosystems in response to climate change. While empirical growth & yield models (G&YMs) provide good estimations of tree growth at the stand level on a yearly to decennial scale, process-based models (PBMs) use LAI dynamics as a key variable for enabling the accurate prediction of tree growth over short time scales. Bridging the gap between PBMs and G&YMs could improve the prediction of forest growth and, therefore, carbon, water and nutrient fluxes by combining modeling approaches at the stand level.Our study aimed to estimate monthly changes of leaf area in response to climate variations from sparse measurements of foliage area and biomass. A leaf population probabilistic model (SLCD) was designed to simulate foliage renewal. The leaf population was distributed in monthly cohorts, and the total population size was limited depending on forest age and productivity. Foliage dynamics were driven by a foliation function and the probabilities ruling leaf aging or fall. Their formulation depends on the forest environment.The model was applied to three tree species growing under contrasting climates and soil types. In tropical Brazilian evergreen broadleaf eucalypt plantations, the phenology was described using 8 parameters. A multi-objective evolutionary algorithm method (MOEA) was used to fit the model parameters on litterfall and LAI data over an entire stand rotation. Field measurements from a second eucalypt stand were used to validate the model. Seasonal LAI changes were accurately rendered for both sites (R-2 = 0.898 adjustment, R-2 = 0.698 validation). Litterfall production was correctly simulated (R-2 = 0.562, R-2 = 0.4018 validation) and may be improved by using additional validation data in future work. In two French temperate deciduous forests (beech and oak), we adapted phenological sub-modules of the CASTANEA model to simulate canopy dynamics, and SLCD was validated using LAI measurements. The phenological patterns were simulated with good accuracy in the two cases studied. However, IA/max was not accurately simulated in the beech forest, and further improvement is required.Our probabilistic approach is expected to contribute to improving predictions of LAI dynamics. The model formalism is general and suitable to broadleaf forests for a large range of ecological conditions. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)